US Election Day!

So the day is here and 'X'marks the box time start. But who'll actually win? Well the BBC have ran a 'I Called It' page where you predict the outcome of the election in those battleground states.

So what did you get?

I managed:

 

[Vinage Vinage]

I made a prediction on the site, but how do I put the map up on here? :huh:

Print screen. Use any ol' image dumping software. Upload onto any ol' image upload website. Copy and paste image url into the

 

[PhDre]

 

[Vinage Vinage]

Ooo Obama's got a nice big blue chuck up there and the important ones

 

[Lord Chuck Anumia]

This will be a close election.
I beleive Romney will win the polular vote 55% to Obummers 43%
Unfortunately, I feel obummer will win the electral college votes:
280-257

 

[PhDre]

This will be a close election.
I beleive Romney will win the polular vote 55% to Obummers 43%

That's a huge margin - is there any polling data to support such a huge margin of victory??

 

[Lord Chuck Anumia]

This will be a close election.
I beleive Romney will win the polular vote 55% to Obummers 43%

That's a huge margin - is there any polling data to support such a huge margin of victory??

No
BUT
There is this news article
http://godfatherpolitics.com/7936/msnbc-ca...ore-polls-open/

 

[PhDre]

This will be a close election.
I beleive Romney will win the polular vote 55% to Obummers 43%

That's a huge margin - is there any polling data to support such a huge margin of victory??

No
BUT
There is this news article
http://godfatherpolitics.com/7936/msnbc-ca...ore-polls-open/

So an irrelevant article and no polls to back up your numbers gotcha.

 

[Vinage Vinage]

This will be a close election.
I beleive Romney will win the polular vote 55% to Obummers 43%

That's a huge margin - is there any polling data to support such a huge margin of victory??

No
BUT
There is this news article
http://godfatherpolitics.com/7936/msnbc-ca...ore-polls-open/

So an irrelevant article and no polls to back up your numbers gotcha.

You seem surprised at Chuck

 

[Kylia Quilor]

You always hope the man is going to use his brain....

 

[Henry]

I'm going to call it here, now: Obama has the lead at the moment; but Romney will pull ahead to win by a slight margin of about 5-8 votes.

God help the US if I'm right. :lol:

 

[Skizzy Grey]

So, really, these polls have little to no relation as to the outcome of the election due to the fact that each state is its own mini-election? So if, say, in Florida it is close - it could be a landslide in the polls in New Hampshire for Obama - however it is reported as generally being close?

Not quite. The national polls and the state polls are related. No one is going to win a moderate state like New Hampshire by a landslide margin unless the national race is also lopsided.

When Obama won big in 2008, the closest states were places like Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina -- all of which are solidly in Romney's column this time. (NC is a rapidly changing state, and will probably be a swing state by 2020; the other two are solidly Republican, and were only in play in 2008 because McCain got trounced nationally.)

 

[Vinage Vinage]

So, really, these polls have little to no relation as to the outcome of the election due to the fact that each state is its own mini-election? So if, say, in Florida it is close - it could be a landslide in the polls in New Hampshire for Obama - however it is reported as generally being close?

Not quite. The national polls and the state polls are related. No one is going to win a moderate state like New Hampshire by a landslide margin unless the national race is also lopsided.

When Obama won big in 2008, the closest states were places like Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina -- all of which are solidly in Romney's column this time. (NC is a rapidly changing state, and will probably be a swing state by 2020; the other two are solidly Republican, and were only in play in 2008 because McCain got trounced nationally.)

I assume for those three states it is the predominately African American voter that before turned to Obama and, this time, has lost hope?

 

[Lord Chuck Anumia]

This will be a close election.
I beleive Romney will win the polular vote 55% to Obummers 43%

That's a huge margin - is there any polling data to support such a huge margin of victory??

No
BUT
There is this news article
http://godfatherpolitics.com/7936/msnbc-ca...ore-polls-open/

So an irrelevant article and no polls to back up your numbers gotcha.

Gee...
I thought EVERYONE HERE was simply pulling numbers out of their back sides :lol:

 

[Kylia Quilor]

Speaking as someone who lives in Indiana, I don't think Indiana has a large, compared to a lot of other states, African American vote.


The phenomenon in Indiana was largely the super-enthusiasm among the young that allowed the handful of urban centers in my shitty state to overpower the redneck rural zones.

Yes, I hate Indiana, why do you ask?

 

[PhDre]

This will be a close election.
I beleive Romney will win the polular vote 55% to Obummers 43%

That's a huge margin - is there any polling data to support such a huge margin of victory??

No
BUT
There is this news article
http://godfatherpolitics.com/7936/msnbc-ca...ore-polls-open/

So an irrelevant article and no polls to back up your numbers gotcha.

Gee...
I thought EVERYONE HERE was simply pulling numbers out of their back sides :lol:

Polls are something at least.

 

[Kylia Quilor]

Nope, Chuck. I'm pulling my data from this thing called Statstical analysis.

Oh, wait, I forgot.

Conservatives and facts don't go together

 

[Lord Chuck Anumia]

Nope, Chuck. I'm pulling my data from this thing called Statstical analysis.

Oh, wait, I forgot.

Conservatives and facts don't go together

Yuck, Yuck.
Yer such a Funny guy
You should put on a red nose and take yer show on the road :lol:

 

[Skizzy Grey]

I assume for those three states it is the predominately African American voter that before turned to Obama and, this time, has lost hope?

There's little doubt black voters will turn out heavily for Obama again. Whether he can get young voters to turn out in large numbers again is less clear. Voters under 30 prefer Obama over Romney by a 2-1 margin, but they are less likely than their elders to actually cast a ballot.

 

[Lord Chuck Anumia]

This will be a close election.
I beleive Romney will win the polular vote 55% to Obummers 43%

That's a huge margin - is there any polling data to support such a huge margin of victory??

No
BUT
There is this news article
http://godfatherpolitics.com/7936/msnbc-ca...ore-polls-open/

So an irrelevant article and no polls to back up your numbers gotcha.

Gee...
I thought EVERYONE HERE was simply pulling numbers out of their back sides :lol:

Polls are something at least.

Ok then

Fifty-two percent (52%) believe the president will be reelected, while 38% think Romney will win

.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_con...l_tracking_poll
(But don't tell Cerian. It is much more amusing letting him assume that I don't know how to use poll information or that I am unable to reconcile facts with reality) ^_^

 

[Vinage Vinage]

I assume for those three states it is the predominately African American voter that before turned to Obama and, this time, has lost hope?

There's little doubt black voters will turn out heavily for Obama again. Whether he can get young voters to turn out in large numbers again is less clear. Voters under 30 prefer Obama over Romney by a 2-1 margin, but they are less likely than their elders to actually cast a ballot.

True. Case of most democratic systems though. A candidate comes into play, usually on a platform of hope/similar, and disappoints us

We end up disenfranchised, rinse and repeat.

*still holds a grudge against Nick Clegg*