US Election Day!

So the day is here and 'X'marks the box time start. But who'll actually win? Well the BBC have ran a 'I Called It' page where you predict the outcome of the election in those battleground states.

So what did you get?

I managed:

 
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I'm not sure if Romney can take PA.. While my county might be Republican I think the state is a borderline Democrat.
 
So you both have clear margins for Obama then?

What about being the 3rd President to get elected into the White House but not on the most popular vote?
 
Vinage said:
So you both have clear margins for Obama then?

What about being the 3rd President to get elected into the White House but not on the most popular vote?
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Gods no.

This is my prediction. Although truthfully, I'm not even voting for Romney. I'm voting for Gary Johnson.

 
There's no way Obama takes Florida. I think Romney also takes Iowa. Obama has New Hampshire and Nevada pretty much locked up. As it has form the beginning, this thing hinges on Ohio and if Romney can pull off an upset in Pennsylvania that's certainly a game-changer.
 
I'll put my money where my mouth is. No way Wisconsin will flip. So way Pennsylvania will flip.
 
The polls in Ohio look very good for Obama. Not quite as much so in Florida.

I did
Nevada, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan

Romney with Florida, New Hampshire, Virginia, north carolina and colorado

277-261

 
Congrats to my fellow citizens voting in their first presidential election. Hard to believe this is my 6th.

I'm guessing Obama will win the nationwide popular vote by 1-2 points, and that the Electoral College outcome will be substantially certain by midnight on the east coast (though the networks won't call it for a few hours after that).
 
Skizzy Grey said:
Congrats to my fellow citizens voting in their first presidential election. Hard to believe this is my 6th.

I'm guessing Obama will win the nationwide popular vote by 1-2 points, and that the Electoral College outcome will be substantially certain by midnight on the east coast (though the networks won't call it for a few hours after that).
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I agree with this.

I plan to be up until the wee hours of the morning watching the coverage.

I am going to feel like hell during classes tommorrow.
 
Two all nighters in a row. hyper.gif

Econometrics. :(

I'll fill something out as soon as I get back from my exam today.
 
My prediction is 290-248, with Romney carrying all the states McCain did in 2000 plus IN, FL, NC and VA, and no split vote in NE or ME. (Obama got one EV from NE in 2008, and some think Romney may steal one from ME this year.)

Edit: Never was any good at math -- I got the states right, but added the EVs wrong.
 
Vinage and SD, you two are insane. :p

I agree with Skizzy, but flip Virginia. So Obama wins 290 - 248
 
Wow you guys have called it by substantial margins.

Is it actually not that close and being billed as close then to keep it interesting? :p
 
The national polls are close, but the swing state polling data suggests that it isn't as close there. Plus, if someone wins a state by 50.1% to 49.9%....the winner of the state gets all the EC votes....

yea...


Anyway, also, Romney has just run an incredibly bad (as in, mismanaged and ineffective) campaign
 
Vinage said:
Wow you guys have called it by substantial margins.

Is it actually not that close and being billed as close then to keep it interesting? :p
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Unless the nationwide popular vote is exceedingly close (no more than a 1-point margin), then Ohio and most of the smaller swing states (New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada) are likely to break the same way.

I think Mac misunderstood my post. I think Romney will win Virginia by the slimmest of margins. Mac went by my math rather than my enumeration of states. We have the same prediction.
 
So, really, these polls have little to no relation as to the outcome of the election due to the fact that each state is its own mini-election? So if, say, in Florida it is close - it could be a landslide in the polls in New Hampshire for Obama - however it is reported as generally being close?

Unrelated but I found this little titbit on the elections quite novel and interesting.

Oh and again unrelated - do you guys use the 'Swingomiter'? UK Election viewers will get what I mean there :p
 
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