The day when we elect our next President draws ever near, and with four tickets competing, two debates having been held, and no horserace polling done since the last edition of The Panda's Pen a week ago the people are starving for data. After conducting a poll that was open November 24 and 25, receiving 34 responses, we are happy to provide.
We start our analysis looking at the final debate, which nearly 80% of our respondents read at some point. No candidate has a clear hold as the "winner", but Monkey did win the most votes, while Pichtonia won the least. It's noteworthy to point out, though, that "Unsure" received just as many votes as Monkey, so it'd be surprising to see any major shifts from the debate.
Monitoring any shift in votes from the debate is what we wanted to track, however. I know these sorts of polls can be hard to interpret visually, so I'll break down the numbers for each ticket here.
Gaudosia/Pichtonia: 2 votes before the debate (both Strong) -> 3 votes after the debate (all Strong)
SkyGreen/Istillian: 15 votes before the debate (10 Lean, 5 Strong) -> 12 votes after the debate (5 Lean, 7 Strong)
Darcness/UPC: 10 votes before the debate (9 Lean, 1 Strong) -> 10 votes after the debate (6 Lean, 4 Strong)
Monkey/Writinglegend: 7 votes before the debate (5 Lean, 2 Strong) -> 9 votes after the debate (5 Lean, 4 Strong)
So, the "winner" of the debate being Monkey seems to have shifted 2 votes over towards him. Interestingly, despite picking up the least "winner" votes from the debate, a vote still flipped to Guadosia/Pichtonia. SkyGreen is the only ticket to lose votes after the debate.
The lead the SkyGreen ticket had over the other tickets in terms of platform readership from the last edition still remains. Darcness has closed the gap a good amount, while Monkey, as the newest ticket, is unsurprisingly lagging in this department.
Among people who read Gaudosia's platform (31 respondents) the numbers break down like this: 13% Very Satisfied (-27%), 61% Somewhat Satisfied (+21%), and 26% Not Satisfied (+6%). The numbers in parenthesis are the change since the last poll. We can see that overall people are less fond of this platform than they were a week ago, even though the comments are mostly positive.
Among people who read SkyGreen's platform (32 respondents) the numbers break down like this: 19% Very Satisfied (-20%), 56% Somewhat Satisfied (+17%), and 25% Not Satisfied (+3%). This platform also takes a minor hit in terms of favorability, but the comments are more pointed here, giving us some understanding as to why.
Among the people who read Darcness' platform (31 respondents) the numbers break down like this: 16% Very Satisfied (-8%), 52% Somewhat Satisfied (-8%), and 32% Not Satisfied (+16%). As the only platform to not gain any amount in Satisfied responses, Darcness' platform has dropped from the most approved to the least approved. There's no mystery as to why, with the comments pointing directly at the EBC policy as the reason for this notable drop.
Among the people who read Monkey's platform (29 respondents) the numbers break down like this: 31% Very Satisfied, 41% Somewhat Satisfied, and 28% Not Satisfied. As the only new platform since last week, there are no numbers to compare to, but this platform is near the bottom in terms of satisfaction from respondents.
With the addition of a fourth ticket, the numbers increased roughly 20% in Very Satisfied, and roughly 11% in Somewhat Satisfied with only a single respondent still Not Satisfied.
Here are the changes since last week when we asked this question:
Gaudosia/Pichtonia - 8.8% (-10%)
SkyGreen/Istillian - 35.3% (-11.6%)
Darcness/UPC - 29.4% (-5%)
Monkey/Writinglegend - 26.5%
If we view the Monkey ticket as drawing from each ticket we can see that the Sky and Gaudosia tickets lost the most support as a result of Monkey's entry. If we view Sky's support coming from the pro-Frontier crowd, another pro-Frontier ticket taking some of their support makes sense. And if we view Gaudosia's support as coming from "not the frontrunners", any credible new ticket would be likely to peel off support.
We almost certainly will see a runoff if the results tomorrow are anything like what this poll suggests, and all three leading tickets are within just a few respondents of each other, so this race is wide open. We do have numbers on all of the potential runoff match-ups to get to, however, which should help clarify things.
I won't be posting the graphs here, because that is simply too many graphs. Instead I will have each candidate get their own section you can peruse at your leisure.
First up is the Gaudosia/Pichtonia ticket. Here are their numbers against every other ticket:
Gaudosia (23.5%) vs. SkyGreen (76.5%)
Gaudosia (23.5%) vs. Darcness (76.5%)
Gaudosia (29.4%) vs. Monkey (70.6%)
With no victories against any other candidate, the other tickets have to hope they go against Gaudosia in a runoff.
Second, the SkyGreen/Istillian ticket:
SkyGreen (76.5%) vs. Gaudosia (23.5%)
SkyGreen (55.9%) vs. Darcness (44.1%)
SkyGreen (52.9%) vs. Monkey (47.1%)
SkyGreen wins every match-up, but both against Darc and Monkey it's too close to call at this number of respondents. So, favored, but not a lock to win for sure.
Third, Darcness/UPC:
Darcness (76.5%) vs. Gaudosia (23.5%)
Darcness (44.1%) vs. SkyGreen (55.9%)
Darcness (50%) vs. Monkey (50%)
Darc only wins against Gaudosia outright, but is within spitting distance of Sky and tied up with Monkey. He'd be a tough foe against any ticket in a runoff.
Lastly, Monkey/Writinglegend:
Monkey (70.6%) vs. Gaudosia (29.4%)
Monkey (47.1%) vs. SkyGreen (52.9%)
Monkey (50%) vs. Darcness (50%)
In a very similar position to Darc, Monkey only beats Gaudosia, but is way too close to the other candidates for them to rest easy should Monkey advance to the runoff.
So that's all I have! Hopefully, these numbers give us a good launching point for discussion and expectations going into tomorrow. Best of luck to all tickets and until next time this is Calvin Coolidge, feasting.
We start our analysis looking at the final debate, which nearly 80% of our respondents read at some point. No candidate has a clear hold as the "winner", but Monkey did win the most votes, while Pichtonia won the least. It's noteworthy to point out, though, that "Unsure" received just as many votes as Monkey, so it'd be surprising to see any major shifts from the debate.
Monitoring any shift in votes from the debate is what we wanted to track, however. I know these sorts of polls can be hard to interpret visually, so I'll break down the numbers for each ticket here.
Gaudosia/Pichtonia: 2 votes before the debate (both Strong) -> 3 votes after the debate (all Strong)
SkyGreen/Istillian: 15 votes before the debate (10 Lean, 5 Strong) -> 12 votes after the debate (5 Lean, 7 Strong)
Darcness/UPC: 10 votes before the debate (9 Lean, 1 Strong) -> 10 votes after the debate (6 Lean, 4 Strong)
Monkey/Writinglegend: 7 votes before the debate (5 Lean, 2 Strong) -> 9 votes after the debate (5 Lean, 4 Strong)
So, the "winner" of the debate being Monkey seems to have shifted 2 votes over towards him. Interestingly, despite picking up the least "winner" votes from the debate, a vote still flipped to Guadosia/Pichtonia. SkyGreen is the only ticket to lose votes after the debate.
The lead the SkyGreen ticket had over the other tickets in terms of platform readership from the last edition still remains. Darcness has closed the gap a good amount, while Monkey, as the newest ticket, is unsurprisingly lagging in this department.
- The ideas are mostly good.
- Lack of experience is the main issue of this platform. I think a big part of the region would likely be much more comfortable if Gaudosia had at least been a Minister once.
- i like it. much better than last time
- Solid platform for someone still so new.
- Pretty detailed.
- I support the Stronghold stance taken by Gaudosia/Pichtonia, but I think there is another ticket better-suited to carrying out executive work at this time.
- Definitely a big improvement and as I’ve said earlier, I love the way it’s organized.
- Pretty mellow policies and ideas that are a bit disconnected.
- I think we have a good platform
- The foreign affairs section of this platform lacks thoughtful articulation on what a Skygreen administration views as Europeia's place post-update and how we can get there. The platform also lacks many details.
- Seems like a bit of a continuity ticket. Bad vibes.
- A tad disappointing in that I don’t think it goes as far and diagnosing and moving forward with our problems.
- Very strong outside of the EBC stuff. Strong unity throughout the executive makes me certain their goals are achievable.
- Not great, not terrible
- I like it but I really wish they'd reconsider their EBC stance.
- Didn’t like the EBC thing
- A decent platform, but lacks some detail.
- Definitely a solid grasp of what’s going on.
- A bit of a worse Darc/UPC platform to me
- Girlbossing a bit too close to the sun there. I wish they hadn't used a special font for it, made it harder for me to read through it
- I'm not buying what they're selling. Next.
- The best platform published.
- Frontier is bad. WALL is bad. Etc, etc.
- I appreciate that someone at the very least is keeping the door open for Stronghold Europeia, even if I personally don’t agree.
With the addition of a fourth ticket, the numbers increased roughly 20% in Very Satisfied, and roughly 11% in Somewhat Satisfied with only a single respondent still Not Satisfied.
Here are the changes since last week when we asked this question:
Gaudosia/Pichtonia - 8.8% (-10%)
SkyGreen/Istillian - 35.3% (-11.6%)
Darcness/UPC - 29.4% (-5%)
Monkey/Writinglegend - 26.5%
If we view the Monkey ticket as drawing from each ticket we can see that the Sky and Gaudosia tickets lost the most support as a result of Monkey's entry. If we view Sky's support coming from the pro-Frontier crowd, another pro-Frontier ticket taking some of their support makes sense. And if we view Gaudosia's support as coming from "not the frontrunners", any credible new ticket would be likely to peel off support.
We almost certainly will see a runoff if the results tomorrow are anything like what this poll suggests, and all three leading tickets are within just a few respondents of each other, so this race is wide open. We do have numbers on all of the potential runoff match-ups to get to, however, which should help clarify things.
I won't be posting the graphs here, because that is simply too many graphs. Instead I will have each candidate get their own section you can peruse at your leisure.
First up is the Gaudosia/Pichtonia ticket. Here are their numbers against every other ticket:
Gaudosia (23.5%) vs. SkyGreen (76.5%)
Gaudosia (23.5%) vs. Darcness (76.5%)
Gaudosia (29.4%) vs. Monkey (70.6%)
With no victories against any other candidate, the other tickets have to hope they go against Gaudosia in a runoff.
Second, the SkyGreen/Istillian ticket:
SkyGreen (76.5%) vs. Gaudosia (23.5%)
SkyGreen (55.9%) vs. Darcness (44.1%)
SkyGreen (52.9%) vs. Monkey (47.1%)
SkyGreen wins every match-up, but both against Darc and Monkey it's too close to call at this number of respondents. So, favored, but not a lock to win for sure.
Third, Darcness/UPC:
Darcness (76.5%) vs. Gaudosia (23.5%)
Darcness (44.1%) vs. SkyGreen (55.9%)
Darcness (50%) vs. Monkey (50%)
Darc only wins against Gaudosia outright, but is within spitting distance of Sky and tied up with Monkey. He'd be a tough foe against any ticket in a runoff.
Lastly, Monkey/Writinglegend:
Monkey (70.6%) vs. Gaudosia (29.4%)
Monkey (47.1%) vs. SkyGreen (52.9%)
Monkey (50%) vs. Darcness (50%)
In a very similar position to Darc, Monkey only beats Gaudosia, but is way too close to the other candidates for them to rest easy should Monkey advance to the runoff.
- No matter the winner, I'm sure it'll be a fun term
- This might be weird but one of the main reasons I support Darc/UPC is that I think that they are the best-suited to transition us to a Frontier.