Race Tightens As Election Day Approaches - Who Will Win the Presidency?

Calvin Coolidge

Spellcaster
Forum Administrator
Honoured Citizen
Citizen
The day when we elect our next President draws ever near, and with four tickets competing, two debates having been held, and no horserace polling done since the last edition of The Panda's Pen a week ago the people are starving for data. After conducting a poll that was open November 24 and 25, receiving 34 responses, we are happy to provide.

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We start our analysis looking at the final debate, which nearly 80% of our respondents read at some point. No candidate has a clear hold as the "winner", but Monkey did win the most votes, while Pichtonia won the least. It's noteworthy to point out, though, that "Unsure" received just as many votes as Monkey, so it'd be surprising to see any major shifts from the debate.

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Monitoring any shift in votes from the debate is what we wanted to track, however. I know these sorts of polls can be hard to interpret visually, so I'll break down the numbers for each ticket here.

Gaudosia/Pichtonia: 2 votes before the debate (both Strong) -> 3 votes after the debate (all Strong)
SkyGreen/Istillian: 15 votes before the debate (10 Lean, 5 Strong) -> 12 votes after the debate (5 Lean, 7 Strong)
Darcness/UPC: 10 votes before the debate (9 Lean, 1 Strong) -> 10 votes after the debate (6 Lean, 4 Strong)
Monkey/Writinglegend: 7 votes before the debate (5 Lean, 2 Strong) -> 9 votes after the debate (5 Lean, 4 Strong)

So, the "winner" of the debate being Monkey seems to have shifted 2 votes over towards him. Interestingly, despite picking up the least "winner" votes from the debate, a vote still flipped to Guadosia/Pichtonia. SkyGreen is the only ticket to lose votes after the debate.

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The lead the SkyGreen ticket had over the other tickets in terms of platform readership from the last edition still remains. Darcness has closed the gap a good amount, while Monkey, as the newest ticket, is unsurprisingly lagging in this department.

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  • The ideas are mostly good.
  • Lack of experience is the main issue of this platform. I think a big part of the region would likely be much more comfortable if Gaudosia had at least been a Minister once.
  • i like it. much better than last time
  • Solid platform for someone still so new.
  • Pretty detailed.
  • I support the Stronghold stance taken by Gaudosia/Pichtonia, but I think there is another ticket better-suited to carrying out executive work at this time.
  • Definitely a big improvement and as I’ve said earlier, I love the way it’s organized.
Among people who read Gaudosia's platform (31 respondents) the numbers break down like this: 13% Very Satisfied (-27%), 61% Somewhat Satisfied (+21%), and 26% Not Satisfied (+6%). The numbers in parenthesis are the change since the last poll. We can see that overall people are less fond of this platform than they were a week ago, even though the comments are mostly positive.

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  • Pretty mellow policies and ideas that are a bit disconnected.
  • I think we have a good platform
  • The foreign affairs section of this platform lacks thoughtful articulation on what a Skygreen administration views as Europeia's place post-update and how we can get there. The platform also lacks many details.
  • Seems like a bit of a continuity ticket. Bad vibes.
  • A tad disappointing in that I don’t think it goes as far and diagnosing and moving forward with our problems.
Among people who read SkyGreen's platform (32 respondents) the numbers break down like this: 19% Very Satisfied (-20%), 56% Somewhat Satisfied (+17%), and 25% Not Satisfied (+3%). This platform also takes a minor hit in terms of favorability, but the comments are more pointed here, giving us some understanding as to why.

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  • Very strong outside of the EBC stuff. Strong unity throughout the executive makes me certain their goals are achievable.
  • Not great, not terrible
  • I like it but I really wish they'd reconsider their EBC stance.
  • Didn’t like the EBC thing
  • A decent platform, but lacks some detail.
  • Definitely a solid grasp of what’s going on.
Among the people who read Darcness' platform (31 respondents) the numbers break down like this: 16% Very Satisfied (-8%), 52% Somewhat Satisfied (-8%), and 32% Not Satisfied (+16%). As the only platform to not gain any amount in Satisfied responses, Darcness' platform has dropped from the most approved to the least approved. There's no mystery as to why, with the comments pointing directly at the EBC policy as the reason for this notable drop.

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  • A bit of a worse Darc/UPC platform to me
  • Girlbossing a bit too close to the sun there. I wish they hadn't used a special font for it, made it harder for me to read through it
  • I'm not buying what they're selling. Next.
  • The best platform published.
  • Frontier is bad. WALL is bad. Etc, etc.
  • I appreciate that someone at the very least is keeping the door open for Stronghold Europeia, even if I personally don’t agree.
Among the people who read Monkey's platform (29 respondents) the numbers break down like this: 31% Very Satisfied, 41% Somewhat Satisfied, and 28% Not Satisfied. As the only new platform since last week, there are no numbers to compare to, but this platform is near the bottom in terms of satisfaction from respondents.

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With the addition of a fourth ticket, the numbers increased roughly 20% in Very Satisfied, and roughly 11% in Somewhat Satisfied with only a single respondent still Not Satisfied.

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Here are the changes since last week when we asked this question:

Gaudosia/Pichtonia - 8.8% (-10%)
SkyGreen/Istillian - 35.3% (-11.6%)
Darcness/UPC - 29.4% (-5%)
Monkey/Writinglegend - 26.5%


If we view the Monkey ticket as drawing from each ticket we can see that the Sky and Gaudosia tickets lost the most support as a result of Monkey's entry. If we view Sky's support coming from the pro-Frontier crowd, another pro-Frontier ticket taking some of their support makes sense. And if we view Gaudosia's support as coming from "not the frontrunners", any credible new ticket would be likely to peel off support.

We almost certainly will see a runoff if the results tomorrow are anything like what this poll suggests, and all three leading tickets are within just a few respondents of each other, so this race is wide open. We do have numbers on all of the potential runoff match-ups to get to, however, which should help clarify things.

I won't be posting the graphs here, because that is simply too many graphs. Instead I will have each candidate get their own section you can peruse at your leisure.

First up is the Gaudosia/Pichtonia ticket. Here are their numbers against every other ticket:

Gaudosia (23.5%) vs. SkyGreen (76.5%)
Gaudosia (23.5%) vs. Darcness (76.5%)
Gaudosia (29.4%) vs. Monkey (70.6%)

With no victories against any other candidate, the other tickets have to hope they go against Gaudosia in a runoff.

Second, the SkyGreen/Istillian ticket:

SkyGreen (76.5%) vs. Gaudosia (23.5%)
SkyGreen (55.9%) vs. Darcness (44.1%)
SkyGreen (52.9%) vs. Monkey (47.1%)

SkyGreen wins every match-up, but both against Darc and Monkey it's too close to call at this number of respondents. So, favored, but not a lock to win for sure.

Third, Darcness/UPC:

Darcness (76.5%) vs. Gaudosia (23.5%)
Darcness (44.1%) vs. SkyGreen (55.9%)
Darcness (50%) vs. Monkey (50%)

Darc only wins against Gaudosia outright, but is within spitting distance of Sky and tied up with Monkey. He'd be a tough foe against any ticket in a runoff.

Lastly, Monkey/Writinglegend:

Monkey (70.6%) vs. Gaudosia (29.4%)
Monkey (47.1%) vs. SkyGreen (52.9%)
Monkey (50%) vs. Darcness (50%)

In a very similar position to Darc, Monkey only beats Gaudosia, but is way too close to the other candidates for them to rest easy should Monkey advance to the runoff.
  • No matter the winner, I'm sure it'll be a fun term
  • This might be weird but one of the main reasons I support Darc/UPC is that I think that they are the best-suited to transition us to a Frontier.
So that's all I have! Hopefully, these numbers give us a good launching point for discussion and expectations going into tomorrow. Best of luck to all tickets and until next time this is Calvin Coolidge, feasting.
 
Thank you for this, Calvin! Let's see if what happens tomorrow follows the trends you can draw from this data.
 
Interesting results. Very close election!
 
Wow. These results are interesting.

To be completely honest, I personally expected that the Monkey-Gleg ticket would have polled better and the SkyGreen-Ist ticket to have polled worse. Regardless of the specific details/leads that this polling indicates, it is clear that this election will be really close.
 
Wow. These results are interesting.

To be completely honest, I personally expected that the Monkey-Gleg ticket would have polled better and the SkyGreen-Ist ticket to have polled worse. Regardless of the specific details/leads that this polling indicates, it is clear that this election will be really close.
Tbh I thought the same, a strong new ticket coming in. But Sky’s polling numbers have been pretty durable throughout the campaign.
 
Honestly, Monkey and Writinglegend are doing a little better than I expected. I feel like they've faced a lot of collective fire and skepticism from folks, seems like they are balancing that out with a strong platform and pretty confident back and forth with folks.

I think the real story here is how effectively Sky separated himself from Lime and developed his own political base. He has the strongest base of support of anyone, and these folks have stuck with him through it all.

Finally, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that explicitly, 100% pro-frontier tickets are mopping up nearly 2/3rds of the vote here. Darcness and UPC have taken a "third way" approach because they knew it was the only path to victory, and I think that weakness shows. Finally, we do have one completely unabashed, pro-stronghold ticket in this campaign -- which includes one of Europeia's most celebrated executives -- and they are in single digits. We'll see what the results show, but this election may very well offer a mandate for the frontier path.
 
Finally, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that explicitly, 100% pro-frontier tickets are mopping up nearly 2/3rds of the vote here. Darcness and UPC have taken a "third way" approach because they knew it was the only path to victory, and I think that weakness shows.
I'm by no means an impartial observer, but I would push back against this a little. When there were three tickets, stronghold-leaning tickets took up the slight majority of the vote. I think that there are a lot of candidate-specific factors that affect a ticket's popularity outside of their core policies, so, say, 2 frontier tickets making the runoff doesn't necessarily indicate a strong mandate for frontier. I could be completely wrong though.

It's safe to say that direct polling is the most reliable source, and we should be getting the results of that soon with the EBC end-of-term polling.
 
Finally, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that explicitly, 100% pro-frontier tickets are mopping up nearly 2/3rds of the vote here. Darcness and UPC have taken a "third way" approach because they knew it was the only path to victory, and I think that weakness shows.
I'm by no means an impartial observer, but I would push back against this a little. When there were three tickets, stronghold-leaning tickets took up the slight majority of the vote. I think that there are a lot of candidate-specific factors that affect a ticket's popularity outside of their core policies, so, say, 2 frontier tickets making the runoff doesn't necessarily indicate a strong mandate for frontier. I could be completely wrong though.

It's safe to say that direct polling is the most reliable source, and we should be getting the results of that soon with the EBC end-of-term polling.
Agree largely with the above. Candidate's individual approaches to F/S were by no means unimportant, but they did not consume the entire debate either. There have been many other talking points for each ticket, and so I would be wary of drawing mandates straight from this, especially on such an important topic. I too would wait for direct polling.
 
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