[euro538ia] June 2023 Presidential Election Liveblog

McEntire · Jun 9, 2023

We have a statement from the Pland/Forilian Campaign on the state of play heading into today!

First of all, a huge thank-you to McEntire for hosting this liveblog and to everyone who plans to join in! I'm excited for the election!

I'll be frank: a win could be tough, but we are going to keep pushing until the end. A big message from my conversations with our lovely citizens has been that voters really love our Frontier-Ready Pland/For Europeia. Our vision will build on past successes to boost our World Assembly power, collaborate effectively with our allies, ensure the success of our ministries, strengthen Europeia's position in this new NS era, and more. Still, we have heard hesitation from some voters about changing the status quo, to which I'll say this: Europeia has never been a region to go half way or to back away from a brighter future. We love to take that jump and vote for the vision and leadership that is stronger, not necessarily the one that has governed for 70 days. Give us a chance.

To any undecided voters out there, reach out to me with questions! Let me know what issues on your mind! I'm always here to listen. [IMG alt=""][/URL]

Still awaiting comment from Rand/Maowi, but Pland/Forilian are clearly going for the underdog pitch! We shall see how this exciting election shapes up.

I also want to bring in the immediate past President, @Lloenflys. Lloen, as you've seen this race shape up, and the term in general, what do you see as the state of play going in to today? Do you have any perspective on Pland Adanna's criticisms of the term, and Rand's performance?

McEntire · Jun 9, 2023

We now have comment from President Rand on how he feels about his chances going into today:

Rand said:
I am feeling optimistic today! We have laid out a clear vision for the region, and I hope our record for the past term speaks for itself.

There is also breaking gameplay news which may have a significant effect on the election. In a dispatch entitled "Europeia's President is Spying On The Rejected Realms," Madjack posted the following:

One day removed from the announcement of Europeia's successful ascension to the Aegis Accords, its President was engaging in espionage against another Aegis member, The Rejected Realms, in direct violation of the treaty. A Europeian agent in The Rejected Realms passed along posts from The Rejected Realms citizens' private forum in the Rejected Realms assembly from the discussion of Europeia's application to join the Aegis Accords.

As the accords states, "A Party must not conduct clandestine operations, espionage, or any other forms of spying against another Party.". The Europeian agent, whose identity is currently unknown, passed along at least one post to President Rand, who then used the post to initiate a confrontation with the delegate of The North Pacific, Gorundu, over whether the post, made as a private citizen of The Rejected Realms, reflected the opinion of The North Pacific's government, as the poster in question was at that time a senior advisor to the delegate of The North Pacific.

The implication that the citizen was advocating for a position endorsed by The North Pacific in The Rejected Realms or operating in The Rejected Realms in bad faith - as a later response to TNP's delegate said - is both false and insulting. It is also incredibly hypocritical given that the post in question was only obtained by President Rand through clandestine means - espionage, in a treatied ally of the region they lead. Given [IMG alt="Link"]https://www.nationstates.net/images/externallink.gif[/IMG]the popularity of Europeia's move to join Aegis, President Rand's actions are incredibly irresponsible, and disrespectful to its new allies.

This is a shocking development, and we will have continuing EBC coverage of this development, and other developments in this election, as they are available.

Lloenflys · Jun 9, 2023

McEntire said:
We have a statement from the Pland/Forilian Campaign on the state of play heading into today!

First of all, a huge thank-you to McEntire for hosting this liveblog and to everyone who plans to join in! I'm excited for the election!

I'll be frank: a win could be tough, but we are going to keep pushing until the end. A big message from my conversations with our lovely citizens has been that voters really love our Frontier-Ready Pland/For Europeia. Our vision will build on past successes to boost our World Assembly power, collaborate effectively with our allies, ensure the success of our ministries, strengthen Europeia's position in this new NS era, and more. Still, we have heard hesitation from some voters about changing the status quo, to which I'll say this: Europeia has never been a region to go half way or to back away from a brighter future. We love to take that jump and vote for the vision and leadership that is stronger, not necessarily the one that has governed for 70 days. Give us a chance.

To any undecided voters out there, reach out to me with questions! Let me know what issues on your mind! I'm always here to listen. [IMG alt=""][/URL]

Click to expand...

Still awaiting comment from Rand/Maowi, but Pland/Forilian are clearly going for the underdog pitch! We shall see how this exciting election shapes up.

I also want to bring in the immediate past President, @Lloenflys. Lloen, as you've seen this race shape up, and the term in general, what do you see as the state of play going in to today? Do you have any perspective on Pland Adanna's criticisms of the term, and Rand's performance?

Thank you for inviting me to participate McEntire! I'm going to keep things a little high level for now, but I do definitely have some thoughts. First, as we have seen from polling and just from the general "zeitgeist" in the region, Rand has been doing a pretty good job. People feel like things are in control and that we are heading in the right direction. That's a great place to be in as an incumbent. Additionally, giving up WritingLegend as the partner on the ticket was always going to be tough because Gleg is a legend, but Rand made a brilliant decision in approaching Maowi to take that role given that she is one of the most beloved figures in the region. This all gives Rand a huge advantage moving into the election.

In circumstancese like that, as the challenger you need to shake things up. A debate would have been one way to do that, but in the absence of a debate you need to look for other opportunities. Let's talk briefly about why - PA has a great term as a minister behind him. Comms has been humming and he gets a ton of credit for that. He also put together a solid and clear plan for the region. But if you're asking people to remove a proven and effective incumbent, those strong bases to run are not enough. You need something to move the needle.

That being said, PA's comments about the Rand administration were extremely well done tactically. They were not mean, they were not ad hominem attacks, they did not come from a place of pettiness or bitterness. They were targeted, tactical strikes at places that were not necessarily at the forefront of voters minds. It is a well-designed move to change the narrative from one of strong executive competence and vision to instead, one of overrearch and leaving some areas adrift. This is exactly the kind of shift he needs voters to make if he has a chance of winning. Will it be succesful? We'll find out once the voting starts ... but in my view it was very, very well done and I think there are two questions: (1) Will enough people see it to make a difference; and (2) Will people agree with PA's view and actually make the shift in thinking he needs them to make in order for it to have the desired effect?

McEntire · Jun 9, 2023

Thank you, Lloen! What a measured analysis.

Now we want to turn to continuing coverage of the news above, regarding MadJack's allegations against President Rand and Europeia. We are now going to go to our shortest-tenured President, SkyGreen, for reaction.

@SkyGreen, what do you think about the allegations, and how they've been handled by the administration? And what effect, if any, do you see the MadJack issue having on the presidential campaign in the closing hours?

SkyGreen · Jun 9, 2023

McEntire said:
Thank you, Lloen! What a measured analysis.

Now we want to turn to continuing coverage of the news above, regarding MadJack's allegations against President Rand and Europeia. We are now going to go to our shortest-tenured President, SkyGreen, for reaction.

@SkyGreen, what do you think about the allegations, and how they've been handled by the administration? And what effect, if any, do you see the MadJack issue having on the presidential campaign in the closing hours?

I prefer record-breaking thank you very much.

It's hard to make a definitive statement before the issue is fully resolved but so far it's going well I would say. Well, as much as a situation like this can go well. It seems that Madjack has made these comments in anger, and has before that resigned from his position as Minister of Culture in TNP, which seems to have not been a fully voluntary resignation, given the other information.

So far the only unresolved issue is how exactly we obtained this info and subsequently whether this was a breach of trust towards TRR. I hope we will be able to get that part resolved soon.
Also best wishes to Rand in dealing with his IRL matter.

The effect of this on the presidential election is uncertain as it's not fully resolved, but until the uncertainty is removed I would assume it will be a rockier road for Rand and Maowi. At the end of the day we are still awaiting for the polls to open which might give Rand and Maowi a chance to bounce back any votes that might have become uncertain at the moment.

McEntire · Jun 9, 2023

Polls have now OPENED! So far it’s not good news for President Rand. We go now to Vice President @Writinglegend for reaction. Gleg, to what do you attribute this sudden change of fortunes? And can Rand come back?

Writinglegend · Jun 9, 2023

We go now to Vice President @Writinglegend for reaction. Gleg, to what do you attribute this sudden change of fortunes? And can Rand come back?

I think aggressive comments from Pland Adanna's campaign in a relatively quiet election could have galvanized his base and swung some voters. It is also possible the latest EBC Poll wasn't entirely reflective of the sentiment due to the timing of its publication. Also I think almost 30% of people hadn't read PA's platform by the time of the last poll publication. Could be a combination of perceived platform strength, his last second hits on the Rand campaign, and a good GOTV effort.

McEntire · Jun 9, 2023

Writinglegend said:
We go now to Vice President @Writinglegend for reaction. Gleg, to what do you attribute this sudden change of fortunes? And can Rand come back?

Click to expand...

I think aggressive comments from Pland Adanna's campaign in a relatively quiet election could have galvanized his base and swung some voters. It is also possible the latest EBC Poll wasn't entirely reflective of the sentiment due to the timing of its publication. Also I think almost 30% of people hadn't read PA's platform by the time of the last poll publication. Could be a combination of perceived platform strength, his last second hits on the Rand campaign, and a good GOTV effort.

Thank you, Writinglegend. In relation to the GOTV efforts cited above, we also have some indication that the energetic GOTV effort of the Pland Adanna campaign may be turning some voters off.

One voter, who spoke to the EBC on the condition of anonymity, said:

Anonymous Voter said:
I can confirm PA did aggressive GOTVing towards me, in fact it contributed to not me wanting to vote for PA compared to Rand's one-time personalized DM.

Still, at this hour, Pland Adanna leads the presidential race. At the time of writing, he leads 32-24, or 57.1% to 42.9%. This is down from a nearly 70%-30% deficit earlier in the day.

56 votes have come in so far, compared to the 66 votes seen in the last election. If we can expect roughly the same number of votes, Rand would need to get nearly all of those votes in order to stay in office. Rand is known for a strong GOTV effort, though, and he will have nearly all day tomorrow to close the gap due to the late opening of the vote.

The EBC will continue to monitor the situation and provide live coverage until the polls close. PLEASE TAKE THE EBC EXIT POLL, so that we can shed additional light on the factors driving this dynamic race.

McEntire · Jun 10, 2023

Now we’re going to bring in EIA Director Kazaman to react to the current state of the race. @Kazaman, this election has had many twists and turns.

What are your takeaways as to why Rand is headed to an apparent defeat, and do you think he can still come back in the ~7 hours left in the election? And/or thoughts on this election in general?

Kazaman · Jun 10, 2023

I think first and foremost, the election was always closer than the polling suggested. We know that our polls have statistical flaws that are just part of the nature of our community and resources. I think either candidate had a good shot at winning, due to the sheer number of undecided and leaning voters. If I had to name two factors that pushed things, I think the GOTV disparity between the campaigns and the recent stunt pulled by MadJack are the obvious choices. Even a small swing by both of those factors, would have been enough to push a marginal victory into the landslide we see today.

McEntire · Jun 10, 2023

EBC EXIT POLL RESULTS

Oval Room, Arnhelm - EBC Senior Political Correspondent McEntire here, reporting live from the streets of Arnhelm as we prepare for polls to close in what has been one of the most chaotic and dynamic Presidential elections in recent memory.

Although the polls are still open, it appears that the Pland Adanna/Forilian ticket will defeat the incumbent president, Rand, and his running mate Maowi. In a speech in the Goldenblock, Rand graciously conceded, saying:

Rand said:
As I stand on the front porch of Goldenblock with my bags packed, I am happy for my friend, President-elect @Pland Adanna, who I am sure will do a great job as President.

Rand exits office after just having received a 96% approval rating from the EBC End-of-Term poll. The election saw Pland Adanna as a dogged challenger, and the race appeared to tighten in the closing days due to developments which we have reported on in our ongoing coverage earlier in this thread.

To shed some light on what happened in this election and why, we are going to reveal the results of our EBC Exit Poll. This exit poll received 27 responses.

Overall Results & Factors Driving Them

Forms response chart. Question title: Who did you vote for in this election?. Number of responses: 27 responses.

Forms response chart. Question title: Did you change your mind within the last day of the race?. Number of responses: 27 responses.

The results of this poll nearly precisely mirror the almost-final vote totals. While we can't say for sure that this a representative sample of the region, the results of this exit poll do not appear to be biased for or against any candidate.

What this poll shows is a dynamic race, in which almost 37% of voters changed their voting intention within the final day of the election. The largest portion of those last-minute deciders were undecideds, which broke almost unanimously for the Pland Adanna/Forilian ticket. It does appear that late-breaking developments significantly damaged the Rand campaign.

Forms response chart. Question title: On a scale from 1 (not important at all) to 5 (very important), how important were each of the factors when considering your vote?. Number of responses: .

In terms of the factors that drove those late-breaking voters, voters were asked to rank the factors that drove their vote in this election from 1 (not important at all) to 5 (very important). Below are the average rankings:

Candidate platforms: 4.04
The candidates' track records this term: 4
Activity levels: 3.55
GOTVing by the candidates: 2.77
The administration's handling of the Madjack controversy: 2.55
Endorsements: 1.85

Despite being a high-profile occurrence, voters were less likely to prioritize the Madjack controversy when selecting their vote. Only 1/3 of voters described it as either "somewhat" or "very" important.

By contrast, voters were very likely to describe the candidates' platforms and track records this term as important to their vote. An identical 85.2% percent described platforms and track records as "somewhat" or "very" important. This could lend credence to an analysis earlier in this thread from Lloenflys, in which he said that Pland's late in the game attacks on the current term's record could have galvanized voters.

The MadJack Factor

Forms response chart. Question title: Do you agree or disagree with the administration declaring Madjack persona non grata?. Number of responses: 27 responses.

Forms response chart. Question title: Are you satisfied with the administration's statement on its decision to PNG Madjack, or do you want more answers?. Number of responses: 27 responses.

This is definitely one of the most interesting elections we have had in awhile, interested to see how things go and evolvement of the MadJack controversy.

Absolute hackery to include the PNG decision in a poll like this. This is a serious decision that is getting politicized by very specific people and it's shameful.

I hope the Madjack situation gets cleared up because if we really PNGed someone and risked our relationship with TRR for some mean comments that would be awful

#pland/for europeia

Excuse my language, but as someone fairly new from an absence, it was FUCKING HARD to choose..

Sad that this election was colored by people not understanding that the handling of this incident and the PNG are both totally justified. Still haven't seen one person say how it should've been handled instead of just saying it wasn't handled correctly. Doubt any of the critiquers would have done better.

This poll would appear to indicate that Europeian voters can walk and chew gum at the same time. That is to say, it appears that a majority - 59.3% - agree with the administration's decision to declare MadJack as a persona non grata over his accusations of Europeian spying in the Rejected Realms. At the same time, voters also seem to want more answers on the issue that led to the PNG, with a 51.9% majority saying as much. Poll questions in Europeia normally see a higher degree of consensus, so while this may not have been the question that the election turned on, it clearly is controversial among the electorate.

Finally, the comments of this poll showed some of that controversy coming through, including hitting the EBC as "absolute hackery" for polling on the PNG decision. We'll just have to live with it.

Please feel free to discuss the election and exit poll results below. We want to hear from YOU! From EBC HQ, this is McEntire, signing off for our June 2023 Presidential Election coverage!

[euro538ia] June 2023 Presidential Election Liveblog

McEntire

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Lloenflys

"Certainty is an illusion ..."

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SkyGreen

♅Emerald Emperor⛢

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Writinglegend

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Kazaman

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