Chasing Gold

United Vietussia

United Vietussia

Allegedly Did Some Stuff
Citizen


Chasing Gold
written by United Vietussia, in collaboration with GraVandius and the Europeian Research Institute
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We've got a sizable field in the upcoming election for First Minister, so I've decided to bring back something I've run before with my old paper back in the very first First Minister election and track the election probabilities on a daily basis as the election progresses. As before, I'd like to preface this entire thread with a disclaimer: this project relies partially on some qualitative numbers, and as such, predictions should be taken with a healthy amount of salt.

In collaboration with the Europeian Research Institute, we have used the results of their recent poll to try to help create a more accurate model based on what citizens reported as important to their decision in voting. Their results (which can be found here) helped us to more properly weight some aspects of each ticket and their candidates.

Please note that these probabilities have not accounted for polling (none available yet), so they do not necessarily paint a full picture just yet. If you wish to see our methodology, please directly contact myself or GraVandius and we'd be happy to discuss it with you.

As the election progresses, we will update these numbers daily, and we will also attempt to round up all of the election news for you to find in one place. We hope that this thread can function as your one-stop shop for all things First Minister election as it approaches on November 18th.

Candidate Platforms:

Calvin Coolidge/Rachael (New Year's Day)
Olde Delaware (OD)/Kuramia (Turning the Corner)
DictatorAnna10 (DAX)/Istillian (The Next Generation)
cuddles/Bowzin (Keep Moving Forward)

Debate Transcripts:

FM Debate

Endorsements:

Calvin Coolidge/Rachael​

Olde Delaware/Kuramia​
​
none​
​
DictatorAnna10/Istillian​

cuddles/Bowzin​
​
none​

Current Chance of Winning the Election:

DAX/Istillian - 30.91%
Calvin Coolidge/Rachael - 27.77%
Olde Delware/Kuramia - 23.02%
Cuddles/Bowzin - 18.3%

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The debates have certainly had a massive impact on the race, as Calvin leapfrogged DAX in a recent ENN poll after the debates. Coupled with what was viewed as a strong debate performance by Calvin's campaign and a weaker performance from DAX's campaign, this race has narrowed once again before election day. OD received a small bump after some solid debate performances, but his support in polling has not quite risen enough to lead us to believe that he poses enough of a threat. Here's our updated list of scenarios.

1) DAX and Calvin head to a runoff.

Both DAX and Calvin remained neck and neck in all polls. Both stayed this way, but Calvin certainly holds more momentum as of now. The runoff comes, and the question then becomes where voters will flock to for supporters of non-runoff candidates.

2) Calvin gets the undecideds to continue to break for him, winning the election outright.

Calvin provided a very solid debate performance, taking the lead in a recent ENN poll when a majority of undecideds broke in favor of his campaign. If this trend continues, Calvin may be in position to eek out a majority in the first round by riding this wave of momentum he's on.

3) DAX resolidifies her base and wins outright.

DAX had a debate performance that wasn't a cause for celebration, but she still has maintained a solid base of voters through this campaign, especially among newer citizens. If she can maintain this base and reconvince some of her voters to come back to her campaign, she could still find a way to win a a majority.

4) A runoff occurs, and OD takes the place of DAX or Calvin.

OD's campaign had two great debate performances. DAX's campaign struggled. This is a recipe for the potential of a very split electorate, which should it happen, it's very possible that OD could sneak into that number two spot and make the runoff, and then who knows what might happen.

Election News Roundup:

November 14th:

A debate lineup has been set for this upcoming Saturday, the 16th, between both the First Minister and Second Minister candidates. The Second Minister debate will commence at 7:30 PM EST, and the First Minister debate will commence at midnight EST. Both debates can be found on the Europeian Discord server, and transcripts will be provided after the debates (you can read more about it here).

Current First Minister Pichtonia has endorsed the campaign of DAX and Istillian.

The Arnhelm Review is presently conducting a poll regarding the state of this race, which you can take here.

November 15th:

The Arnhelm Review released the results of the first poll of this election cycle, which can be found here.

The First and Second Minister debates, sponsored by The Arnhelm Review, will commence tomorrow at 7:30 PM EST with the Second Minister candidates and continue at midnight EST with the First Minister candidates.

November 16th:

E-News Network released the results of their recent poll, showing a comfortable lead for DAX but still with a lot of votes that aren't fully committed. You can read more about the full results here.

The debates commence tonight at midnight EST with the First Minister debate on the Europeian Discord server. Transcripts will be provided for review if you can't make it out for the debate.

November 17th:

E-News Network conducted a very quick poll after the First Minister debate. You can read about the results here.

The Second Minister debate occurred tonight. The transcript is in the process of being formatted, but once finished, you can find it back at the top.

Some endorsements came down today from Aexnidaral Seymour, Sopo, and the Europeian Cosmopolitan Party. You can find direct links to their endorsements back at the top.

The election is tomorrow! Don't forget to vote!
 
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I'm excited for this project, especially with the number of tickets running!
 
Oh, I didn't even notice this was sneaky edited last night! I wonder what caused the probabilities to change.
 
Calvin Coolidge said:
Oh, I didn't even notice this was sneaky edited last night! I wonder what caused the probabilities to change.
Click to expand...
We updated it to include all of the platforms that were out at the time so those probabilities don’t include Cuddles platform, Which is why his percent slides so much. That will obviously change however when his platform is included in today’s update.
 
Ah, that makes sense. I hope there'll be a poll released soon so we get a clearer picture of the race after you guys went through all this effort.
 
I'm interested to know why the Pichto endorsement didn't affect the tracker. Do endorsements just not factor in?
 
Calvin Coolidge said:
I'm interested to know why the Pichto endorsement didn't affect the tracker. Do endorsements just not factor in?
Click to expand...
It is actually in the tracker we were just talking about how we should weight them as for today's update they were weighted almost negligibly low.
 
Calvin Coolidge said:
I'm interested to know why the Pichto endorsement didn't affect the tracker. Do endorsements just not factor in?
Click to expand...

They do, but we don't believe that they are weighted that heavily. It's hard to notice that it was a factor given that cuddles saw the major bump due to now having a platform, but it did make a difference (albeit, very slight). We may revisit our weighting of endorsements prior to tomorrow, but historically, we don't believe that endorsements have a lot of sway, though we do recognize that it can make a difference.
 
Thank you both for your answers! I think that's probably the right approach to this, and am interested to continue following this amazing project as the election continues.
 
Calvin Coolidge said:
Thank you both for your answers! I think that's probably the right approach to this, and am interested to continue following this amazing project as the election continues.
Click to expand...

We've just mulled it over and reconfigured our weighting of endorsements. Numbers will be updated to reflect this change, but do keep in mind that it is still just a single endorsement, so it will have an effect (especially given Pichto's position), but given that it is still only one person, it will not be that large.
 
I retract my "nothing has changed" image.
 
Iiiiiiiiinteresting
 
I'm surprised cuddles' numbers went down, since I'd say his poll results were stronger than OD's. There was only one response separating them with the Unsure option included, but without it cuddles jumps way ahead. On the whole, it seems that cuddles and OD are basically even, but cuddles has a stronger position with undecideds.
 
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