DAX Leads In Crowded Pack Where Anything Can Still Happen

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"DAX Leads In Crowded Pack Where Anything Can Still Happen"
HEM
Managing Editor

According to ENN's first poll of the November 2019 First Minister election, DictatorAnna10 starts with a lead that is strong but far from unassailable.

In a race that is currently deeply cutting across demographical lines, every single ticket in the election still has a path to victory.

ENN POLL RESULTS | Nov 15 - Nov 16 | n=25

Definitely DictatorAnna10 / Istillian: 16%
Probably DictatorAnna10 / Istillian: 36%
Definitely Olde Delaware / Kuramia: 4%
Probably Olde Delaware / Kuramia: 8%
Definitely Calvin Coolidge / Rachael: 4%
Probably Calvin Coolidge / Rachael: 4%
Definitely Cuddles / Bowzin: 8%
Probably Cuddles / Bowzin: 0%
Truly Undecided: 20%

ENN POLL RESULTS - No Undecideds | Nov 15 - Nov 16 | n=25

DictatorAnna10 / Istillian: 56%
Olde Delaware / Kuramia: 12%
Calvin Coolidge / Rachael: 20%
Cuddles / Bowzin: 12%

"DAX is a newcomer on the rise, having built up a solid resume and a lot of solid support," ENN Opinions Editor Sopo opines. "Meanwhile, we have Calvin, a resurgent veteran member. He is within striking distance but needs to lock down his own base. Cuddles and OD also have respectable showings and could very well overtake Calvin for the number two spot in a likely runoff."

While DAX's current top-line result suggests she may have a chance of winning the election outright without a runoff, with so many candidates running it seems more likely than not that a second vote will be required for a candidate to reach a majority. That's why ENN also conducted head-to-head polls, asking respondents to respond to a variety of different runoff scenarios:







"I think this poll is useful because it tells us more of the story from the Arnhelm Review's poll. A lot of folks have yet to make up their mind, but we see especially in the head to heads that DAX has the advantage," Sopo says. "I wouldn't be surprised if OD outperforms the polls if he works the same GOTV magic. The case for cuddles is less clear. He's a newer member, but he's struggled to make a splash politically and is the true underdog. He's incredibly social and had experience in radio and culture which might help him win over less politically minded voters."

While DAX has the advantage, she also has weak spots. The overwhelming majority of her support is only "leaning" toward her, and the pool of undecided voters break hard for Calvin Coolidge. For more insight on the demographical trends and crosstabs of the poll, make sure to tune into EBC Radio at 4:00PM EST to hear the exciting details!
 
Interesting spread here. I'm thinking of writing something on "newcomer bias" because it definitely seems newcomers are getting a lot more rep than older members
 
Interesting spread here. I'm thinking of writing something on "newcomer bias" because it definitely seems newcomers are getting a lot more rep than older members
I will have a detailed demographic breakdown ready by the radio show! it's really interesting stuff.
 
A great break down, as always! I'm excited to be a part of this! It's historical for an FM race!
 
Amazing show, good @HEM

Also -- can you release the poll info with demographics? It'll be good to have it here instead of 40m through a radio broadcast :p
FINE:

Old Members [2007-2014] - 28%

Calvin: 57%
Olde Delaware: 29%
Cuddles: 0%
DAX: 14%

Middle-Aged Members [2015-2016] - 33%

Calvin: 13%
Olde Delaware: 0%
Cuddles: 0%
DAX: 87%

New Members [2017 - 2019] - 39%

Calvin: 0%
Olde Delaware: 10%
Cuddles: 30%
DAX: 60%
 
Amazing show, good @HEM

Also -- can you release the poll info with demographics? It'll be good to have it here instead of 40m through a radio broadcast :p
FINE:

Old Members [2007-2014] - 28%

Calvin: 57%
Olde Delaware: 29%
Cuddles: 0%
DAX: 14%

Middle-Aged Members [2015-2016] - 33%

Calvin: 13%
Olde Delaware: 0%
Cuddles: 0%
DAX: 87%

New Members [2017 - 2019] - 39%

Calvin: 0%
Olde Delaware: 10%
Cuddles: 30%
DAX: 60%
It's interesting that the DAX ticket has supporters in every era, different than Cuddles, OD, and Calvin. I wonder if this is is a mixture of soft power, activity, new face and the natural successor idea surrounding it.
 
Amazing show, good @HEM

Also -- can you release the poll info with demographics? It'll be good to have it here instead of 40m through a radio broadcast :p
FINE:

Old Members [2007-2014] - 28%

Calvin: 57%
Olde Delaware: 29%
Cuddles: 0%
DAX: 14%

Middle-Aged Members [2015-2016] - 33%

Calvin: 13%
Olde Delaware: 0%
Cuddles: 0%
DAX: 87%

New Members [2017 - 2019] - 39%

Calvin: 0%
Olde Delaware: 10%
Cuddles: 30%
DAX: 60%
It's interesting that the DAX ticket has supporters in every era, different than Cuddles, OD, and Calvin. I wonder if this is is a mixture of soft power, activity, new face and the natural successor idea surrounding it.
It probably helps that Dax manages to combine the "new face" feel with not insignificant experience in the domestic executive and in the legislative government, so people feel they can trust her even beyond newer members perhap favouring her at least in part for her sociability and casual discord activity.
 
I didn't take this poll, but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of older players - myself included - group Dax into the category of new(ish) player who "gets it" and "does all the right things" while having a certain level of maturity that is seen as novel/surprising for her age (age referring to RL age and in-game age). We've always had players like that dating back to 2008/2009 and onwards (Asianatic is probably the first real example of this), though the 14% support number from the oldest players demographic undercuts my statement a bit.
 
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