Op Ed: Effects of Executive Level Resignations on Europeia

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Opinion: Effects of Executive Level Resignations on Europeia
An Analysis of Our Regions Executive Government Turnover Rate Over the Past Year
Written by Vac

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Continuity. We as Europeians pride ourselves on this. The continuance of government, something that every government strives for. You see it to the extreme in the United States government with the hundreds of millions, or even billions of dollars spent on squirreling away redundancies of files, hiding a secretary during the State of the Union address, and the millions spent on bunkers for government officials to hide during times of war on the homefront. Admittedly we don’t see this level of preparedness anywhere on NationStates due to the lack of necessity. Most governments on NationStates miss this mark, and sink into the rough waves of nothingness, a footnote in history. Europeia, however, obviously has not experienced these misfortunes with over a decade of continuous governance, never being infected by the virus of inactivity that infects to many regions. Part of what has ensured this has been having a lower than usual turnover rate in our executive, and that is a huge part of a region’s success. The stability of knowing that a government in place won’t fall apart or undergo significant change in staffing, and without undergoing radical changes in direction of policy without warning. Here in Europeia we are seeing the first of the two start to take shape.

Over the course of recent Europeian history, we have seen a significant lack of stability in our executive branch. Since July of 2016 we have had seven Presidents, three of which have resigned, Trinnien, Calvin, and our most recent one, Cat. Our government has been rocked by significant scandal, with both Cat and Trinnien showing a lack of discrepancy in who shares classified information with whom. Below the President are nine members of his or her cabinet. That brings us to a theoretical total of sixty three members of cabinet if we are to assume everyone were to serve their full seventy day term. However, an investigation done by Aexnideral Seymour revealed that there have been a total fifteen cabinet resignations since July of two thousand and sixteen, a 24% turnover rate! With several cabinet ministers being especially susceptible to resignation, World Assembly(WA) Ministers, Attorney General’s, and our Radio Ministers, with three of each resigning over the course of our sample. Do note that I am not counting the current Writing Legend Presidency due to the fact that it is still going on.

Now what does all of that mean? What am I driving at? Yet another investigation by Aex has revealed that since the Presidential election in April of this year, we have seen what is frankly a severe downtick in voter turnout. In April there were ninety votes cast, in July there were eighty five votes cast, and finally in September there was an abysmal fifty nine votes cast.

What this shows, in my opinion, is that our lack of stability in the government of our region over the last seven governments, has started to promote an atmosphere of apathy among voters. While we are admittedly in the beginning stages of this unfortunate development, we are no doubt beginning the process, as noted by Aexnideral Seymour during his most recent appearance on EBC Radio. This is a trend that has to be halted, and fast before the strangleholds of voter apathy begin to start having severe negative effects on the region. While sudden changes in a government members real life are out of any of our control, recently there have been situations resulting in government instability, no matter how temporary, that are well within the realm of NationStates. With both Cat and Trinnien showing a lack of discrepancy in who gets what information, particularly outside of the borders of Europeia and with people who either did, or possibly meant ill intent for the region. I however believe in the people of Europeia to right the course before it gets past the point of no return.

 

[Kylia Quilor]

Continuity. We as Europeians pride ourselves on this.

Although my point diverges from the executive branch, it does relate to the first two sentences of the article.

When we examine the latest Senate election, continuity again comes up. The four individuals who have previously served in the Senate who stood for election were all elected. We have been discussing about getting newcomers involved in politics. Well, if we constantly elect the same individuals into office, that cannot happen. Perhaps the region simply wants the same people in office because they know what they are getting and are scared of change. Perhaps members simply don't want newcomers at all. Or perhaps those who have previously ran and been elected simply had better campaigns and better ideas to the plurality of voters.

There's a few things that go into the election of oldster Senators over and over

-Proven track record. Especially for a guy like Drecq, and while I can and do vote for new candidates, I also like a few staid old hands who can keep things steady
-New candidates can be a risk - not just in activity (though that's a thing too) but also in terms of their skill and judgement. Sometimes people don't want to take the risk.

And then you have things like the Strategic voting method Skizzy talked about in the recent voting thread, which can hurt some new people, and various personal and petty dislikes... 2/6 completely new to the Senate faces is not outside the norm. But within the 4/6, you have Fest, who has only been a Senator once before, so he's not exactly an old hand. Plus, Fest was the only candidate from his party running, so that probably helped too.

 

[Steven G. Eastridge]

Continuity. We as Europeians pride ourselves on this.

Although my point diverges from the executive branch, it does relate to the first two sentences of the article.

When we examine the latest Senate election, continuity again comes up. The four individuals who have previously served in the Senate who stood for election were all elected. We have been discussing about getting newcomers involved in politics. Well, if we constantly elect the same individuals into office, that cannot happen. Perhaps the region simply wants the same people in office because they know what they are getting and are scared of change. Perhaps members simply don't want newcomers at all. Or perhaps those who have previously ran and been elected simply had better campaigns and better ideas to the plurality of voters.

There's a few things that go into the election of oldster Senators over and over

-Proven track record. Especially for a guy like Drecq, and while I can and do vote for new candidates, I also like a few staid old hands who can keep things steady
-New candidates can be a risk - not just in activity (though that's a thing too) but also in terms of their skill and judgement. Sometimes people don't want to take the risk.

And then you have things like the Strategic voting method Skizzy talked about in the recent voting thread, which can hurt some new people, and various personal and petty dislikes... 2/6 completely new to the Senate faces is not outside the norm. But within the 4/6, you have Fest, who has only been a Senator once before, so he's not exactly an old hand. Plus, Fest was the only candidate from his party running, so that probably helped too.

All true points. I wasn't complaining or anything, just pointing things out that have recently been talked about.

 

[Lethen]

Read the article:

To counter-act my previous comment, we do care about continuity when it comes to regional history and government information. This was a major discussion point during the emergence of and transition to Discord where so much information could potentially be lost while "chains of custody" (for lack of a better term) were breaking down between initiatives started and discussed on one platform but not the other; smaller groups not communicating with one another between the two platforms; and compartmentalization leading to other problems.

Yet another investigation by Aex has revealed that since the Presidential election in April of this year, we have seen what is frankly a severe downtick in voter turnout. In April there were ninety votes cast, in July there were eighty five votes cast, and finally in September there was an abysmal fifty nine votes cast.

What article? I'd love to read it (or re-read it? ).

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Also I like Trinn but is no one else a bit thrown off that someone who has put themselves into self-imposed exile still finds it appropriate to read some forum-side discussions; chime in on the forums; and sometimes chime in to others in private over Discord with their hot-takes?

 

[Snowball]

Read the article:

To counter-act my previous comment, we do care about continuity when it comes to regional history and government information. This was a major discussion point during the emergence of and transition to Discord where so much information could potentially be lost while "chains of custody" (for lack of a better term) were breaking down between initiatives started and discussed on one platform but not the other; smaller groups not communicating with one another between the two platforms; and compartmentalization leading to other problems.

Yet another investigation by Aex has revealed that since the Presidential election in April of this year, we have seen what is frankly a severe downtick in voter turnout. In April there were ninety votes cast, in July there were eighty five votes cast, and finally in September there was an abysmal fifty nine votes cast.

What article? I'd love to read it (or re-read it? ).

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Also I like Trinn but is no one else a bit thrown off that someone who has put themselves into self-imposed exile still finds it appropriate to read some forum-side discussions; chime in on the forums; and sometimes chime in to others in private over Discord with their hot-takes?

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yeah now that I think about that

 

[Kylia Quilor]

it may be someone brought the article to his attention and he felt a need to set the record straight?

 

[PhDre]

That's a straw man. You're trying to craft an argument based on two very different scenarios. Just because you say something exists does not make it true Rach.

How is that a straw man argument? Your position relies on correlations, and Rach's article is an example of how one could make spurious conclusions based on correlative data. She still directly attacks your position by (rightly) saying it's drawing conclusions from correlations.

It's straw man in the fact that she tries to draw a connection between this article and correlations between to entirely separate entities. Dog owners and egg rolls don't exactly advance the argument.

Rach's point is that correlation doesn't imply causation. Even when an input and an output seem linked (as with diet and health), we should be careful about conclusions we draw about causation. When the input and output aren't logically linked at all, we should be downright skeptical about claims of causation.

And she isn't straw-manning.

oh, well jd is dumm

In that case, I just hope she'll read my justification again. I'd like an actual argument rather than just calling it poor analysis.

The actual argument is that a correlation between two facts (lower turnout in presidential elections + high resignation rate for presidents and ministers) cannot be tied directly, which this article attempts to do. Furthermore the article / you appear to suggest that one is causing the other, which there is no evidence of - at least a quote from citizens who say "I dont bother to vote anymore because everyone will resign anyway" would be an improvement.

A host of other factors could be driving lower turnout in elections:

- the skill of presidential candidates / running mates to GOTV - something that Aex is particularly skilled at for example
- the season of the year / general trends in activity may significantly drive turnout in elections and this is not controlled for
- no control for quality of platforms or ideas - or control for quality of candidates running. A perception of lower quality options may reduce turnout.
- Many other factors including day of week, perceived closeness of elections (my vote really matters this time!), etc.
- Engagement in CA / general CA activity may drive less committed citizens to vote in elections, and CA activity may be down versus a year ago.

The fact that the article doesn't even begin to consider that other trends could potentially push down voter turnout in Presidential elections is a major flaw and why the thesis of the article, summed up by JayDee:

. People have lost confidence in our elected officials to carry out their duties so they're less inclined to vote for anyone.

Is never proven and worse there is no attempt to address the many other factors that could reduce turnout. I came up with that list in 7 minutes, I'm sure that there are many others that can reasonably be brainstormed.

Ultimately, if you make a strong assertion about the relationship between two trends, the responsibility is on you to convince others, and it seems unreasonable to demand "actual arguments" when those commenting are just asking for higher quality analysis from the EBC. Pointing at two trends and tying them together as a narrative works ... if you put the leg work in.

 

[Aexnidaral]

Also I like Trinn but is no one else a bit thrown off that someone who has put themselves into self-imposed exile still finds it appropriate to read some forum-side discussions; chime in on the forums; and sometimes chime in to others in private over Discord with their hot-takes?

You're not alone here-- I agree. To be honest, I didn't even read JayDee's post that had Trinnien's message in there until you posted this comment, Lethen.

Though, I don't think Vac's editorial is a targeted attack on anyone, and to interpret it as such is a little over the top. I didn't have anything to do with the article except going through Administration's from Trinnien's forward and just tallying resignations, and really didn't know what Vac was going to write but I don't think I disagree with his overall premise.

I do think that our resignations have an effect on us, and in many cases can set us back. Funny enough, I view our current resignation culture almost the opposite of what I saw in 09-12, when back then we had resignations and people were chomping at the bit to replace everyone.

 

[Lethen]

it may be someone brought the article to his attention and he felt a need to set the record straight?

That may have been the case here, but in the past Trinnien has DM'd me a few times with his input and hot takes on various Europeian controversies since his self-imposed ban went into effect.

 

[Darcness]

.... did JayDee just circumvent a ban? Am I reading this right?

 

[Skizzy Grey]

.... did JayDee just circumvent a ban? Am I reading this right?

There’s no law that makes it illegal to share non-classified goings-on here with someone who does not have access to these forums. Whether it’s bad judgment is something we can debate. Personally, I think reaching out to Trinn for his thoughts on an article that specifically mentions him is a lot different from reaching out to, say, Falconias (or even Constie). Trinn screwed up, and made matters worse by stirring up drama instead of unequivocally accepting responsibility, but he has made significant contributions to this community and doesn’t wish us ill.

 

[Rach]

Personally, I think reaching out to Trinn for his thoughts on an article that specifically mentions him is a lot different from reaching out to, say, Falconias (or even Constie).

I'm not sure why it would be bad to reach out to Falconias, it's been like 8 years since he was part of Euro and probably 6-7 years since he has played NS to a major degree. At this point, it'd be more like talking to someone who has never played NS or perhaps more accurately like talking about sporting rivalries to a player who has been retired a long time.

 

[JayDee]

I should specify that Trinn reached out to me, not the other way around.

 

[Skizzy Grey]

Personally, I think reaching out to Trinn for his thoughts on an article that specifically mentions him is a lot different from reaching out to, say, Falconias (or even Constie).

I'm not sure why it would be bad to reach out to Falconias, it's been like 8 years since he was part of Euro and probably 6-7 years since he has played NS to a major degree. At this point, it'd be more like talking to someone who has never played NS or perhaps more accurately like talking about sporting rivalries to a player who has been retired a long time.

At the time he left active gameplay (which I think was not as long ago as you remember), Falc still wished us ill and was actively working to hurt us and our allies. It would therefore be bad judgment for a citizen here to give him insight into goings-on here or provide a platform for his views. I’m not in the know as to specifically what Trinn did, but my understanding from what has been said publicly is that he didn’t act with the same malicious intent toward us that Falc demonstrated.

 

[JayDee]

I'm not sure many people understand, but Trinn can view this thread himself. I know because when I was banned, I could view parts of the forum so long as I logged out first. The only problem was that I couldn't post in these threads.

 

[OnderKelkia]

Personally, I think reaching out to Trinn for his thoughts on an article that specifically mentions him is a lot different from reaching out to, say, Falconias (or even Constie).

I'm not sure why it would be bad to reach out to Falconias, it's been like 8 years since he was part of Euro and probably 6-7 years since he has played NS to a major degree. At this point, it'd be more like talking to someone who has never played NS or perhaps more accurately like talking about sporting rivalries to a player who has been retired a long time.

The time estimates of 8 years (since he was active in Europeia) and 6-7 years (since he was active to a major degree in the game) are slightly off. Falconias remained active in Europeia until July 2010, so a few months over 7 years ago. Falconias was active elsewhere as Arch-Chancellor of the FRA up to October 2013, so just under 5 years ago.

Regardless, Falconias should not be understood as either an old sporting rival or someone new to the game. No one who has played the game for years - especially as a member of FRA Intelligence - will ever be a real novice when it comes to the fundamentals of gameplay again. While he may not have been active to a "major degree", he has filtered in and out across the intervening period, as opposed to staying out of contact altogether. If he had the inclination to become a problem for Europeia or our sphere again, there is no doubt that he retains the the underlying ability to pose a threat. He may not have the inclination to act in that way anymore, but the potential threat remains.

We should not look on Falconias with rose-tinted glasses or under-estimate just how despicable his actions were. He used his admittedly impressive political and social skills to undermine and almost destroy Europeia as a credible political entity in 2008-10, all in the service of the global Defender cause. He was able to do this precisely because a great many people tolerated him when they should have known better, partly because of his personality and partly because he cultivated ties with newer players that prevented establishment figures taking the action that was necessary. That is why it can be so dangerous to associate with such individuals.

There has never been a more serious threat to this republic than Falconias. Let us not mince words. He crippled Europeia before our eyes.

When someone betrays a region like that, they should never be received warmly again. They chose to be an Enemy - not an opponent, a straightforward, unequivocal capital-E Enemy in gameplay terms - and they should be treated like an Enemy. The effect of tolerating such people again would be to reduce the deterrent against similar behaviour in the future. We can be friendly with such people outside of the game, but gameplay ought to be kept off limits.

 

[Darcness]

My point here is that Trinnien is in a self-imposed ban. How are you actually providing a penance if you're circumventing it? I understand that it can be hard to let people 'talk trash' about you, but it's a punishment (self-imposed or otherwise). It's supposed to be hard.

By posting what Trinnien wanted, JayDee has allowed Trinnien to circumvent the restriction on banned individuals from posting here. Sure, there's not exactly harm here (Trinnien doesn't likely have any ill will against the region, as Skizzy points out), but it's still indicative of a disregard for the rules that I wouldn't expect a Minister to have.

I just wish people would think things through a little more, is all.

 

[JayDee]

If it was a court ban or administrative ban, that I would understand. This, as you have pointed out, is a self imposed ban. Trinnien is not a criminal, he has simply chosen to go through a sort of rehabilitation process before coming back to Europeia. If that is wrong, I do apologize, but comparing Trinnien to Falconias is a terrible insult to the person who served this region in good faith for nearly 2 years.

 

[Sopo]

The time estimates of 8 years (since he was active in Europeia) and 6-7 years (since he was active to a major degree in the game) are slightly off. Falconias remained active in Europeia until July 2010, so a few months over 7 years ago. Falconias was active elsewhere as Arch-Chancellor of the FRA up to October 2013, so just under 5 years ago.

Regardless, Falconias should not be understood as either an old sporting rival or someone new to the game. No one who has played the game for years - especially as a member of FRA Intelligence - will ever be a real novice when it comes to the fundamentals of gameplay again. While he may not have been active to a "major degree", he has filtered in and out across the intervening period, as opposed to staying out of contact altogether. If he had the inclination to become a problem for Europeia or our sphere again, there is no doubt that he retains the the underlying ability to pose a threat. He may not have the inclination to act in that way anymore, but the potential threat remains.

We should not look on Falconias with rose-tinted glasses or under-estimate just how despicable his actions were. He used his admittedly impressive political and social skills to undermine and almost destroy Europeia as a credible political entity in 2008-10, all in the service of the global Defender cause. He was able to do this precisely because a great many people tolerated him when they should have known better, partly because of his personality and partly because he cultivated ties with newer players that prevented establishment figures taking the action that was necessary. That is why it can be so dangerous to associate with such individuals.

There has never been a more serious threat to this republic than Falconias. Let us not mince words. He crippled Europeia before our eyes.

When someone betrays a region like that, they should never be received warmly again. They chose to be an Enemy - not an opponent, a straightforward, unequivocal capital-E Enemy in gameplay terms - and they should be treated like an Enemy. The effect of tolerating such people again would be to reduce the deterrent against similar behaviour in the future. We can be friendly with such people outside of the game, but gameplay ought to be kept off limits.

Though discussion of Falc is a bit off track, I agree with Onder.

Not to mention, wasn't Falc involved in Balder in the somewhat recent past? He also re-started Equinox a not that long ago.

Don't get me wrong--I really don't think Falc cares about us anymore--but what he did effectively alienates him from our community for life, and I don't think time heals all wounds in this case.

 

[JayDee]

iirc, Falc tried to apply for citizenship last year. Just a few days before my banishment actually.

 

[Calvin Coolidge]

If it was a court ban or administrative ban, that I would understand. This, as you have pointed out, is a self imposed ban. Trinnien is not a criminal, he has simply chosen to go through a sort of rehabilitation process before coming back to Europeia. If that is wrong, I do apologize, but comparing Trinnien to Falconias is a terrible insult to the person who served this region in good faith for nearly 2 years.

Let's be clear about something, though. Trinn's actions very likely could have led to a ban as a punishment, had things been escalated further. This isn't some ban he took to take some time off just for the fun of it, and in my mind this ban should be treated as a punishment imposed by the community, even if he technically left of his own accord.

EDIT: Changed what ban he could be subject to.