- Pronouns
- He/Him
A REAL POLLING CENTRE, ARNHELM - After our previous poll, A Real Newspaper ran a second poll to gauge if there was any change in the race since last time. There were 27 respondents.
Big change in support; Lime/Monkey jumps to the lead, takes support away from Istillian/Darkslayer
First, there has been a big change in support. Lime/Monkey, previously in third place with 23.1% of the vote, has leaped into first place with 37.0% of the vote. Istillian/Darkslayer received an equally big blow in the opposite direction, dropping from 46.2% to 33.3%. Kazaman/UPC remained at around the same number of votes, dropping slightly from 30.8% to 29.6%; however, this may be the product of the one extra respondent we had when comparing this poll with the previous poll. It seems that more uncommitted Istillian/Darkslayer voters all simultaneously switched sides to being Lime/Monkey supporters, as we will soon see that the remaining Istillian/Darkslayer voters are significantly more sure of their voting choice than the average voter of the other tickets; it remains unclear why this is, but perhaps this may be due to GOTV efforts from the Lime/Monkey campaign, as well as their several campaign updates throughout the past few days. Meanwhile, a remarkable steadiness was observed in Kazaman/UPC voters, with the number remaining unchanging, which may be due to the relative controversy surrounding their platform observed in the last poll. Supporters of their platform may have supported the Kazaman/UPC ticket all along, while detractors clearly have a lower chance of voting for the ticket. It is very important to note that only one vote separates each of the tickets, so these results must be taken with a grain of salt.
Vast majority of voters have not changed their minds, but everyone who changed their minds now support Lime/Monkey
The below graph shows that 89% of all voters have not changed their votes since the last poll, but the 3 respondents who said they changed their mind all voted for Lime/Monkey in this poll, with the final voter increase for the ticket coming from the extra respondent this poll received. This, again, may signify to an apparent success in the Lime/Monkey GOTV campaign in taking support from the previous lead ticket, Istillian/Darkslayer, as Kazaman/UPC did not gain anything from this fall in Istillian/Darkslayer support, which all but rules out something wrong done by that ticket.
Istillian/Darkslayer supporters much more committed than other tickets' supporters, possible sign of large base
The methodology of this section is a bit complicated, so please bear with me here. Respondents were polled on how committed they were to their choice, with 1 being absolutely sure and 5 being completely not sure, and this score was tallied up for each ticket. Then, this score was divided by the number of respondents who voted for said ticket. This produces a value of average support, which is more favourable for a candidate the lower it is.
Istillian/Darkslayer Value of Average Support: 1.56 (14 total points/9 supporters)
Kazaman/UPC Value of Average Support: 2.75 (22 total points/8 supporters)
Lime/Monkey Value of Average Support: 2.70 (27 total points/10 supporters)
As we can see, Istillian/Darkslayer supporters are on average over 1 point more sure about their choice than supporters of Lime/Monkey and Kazaman/UPC, with Lime/Monkey voters slightly more sure than Kazaman/UPC voters. This may be due to former voters of Istillian/Darkslayer who were less sure migrating to the Lime/Monkey ticket, which would lower both their number of supporters and average value of support.
Time and discussion with candidates cited as reasons for vote change
See comments, attached below:
Ultimately, this election has come down to a tight conclusion, and it will be very interesting to see who will win this three-way race. Success will depend on GOTV efforts and election-day activity. Can Lime/Monkey continue draining support from other tickets? Can Istillian/Darkslayer reverse this trend of dropping support? Can Kazaman/UPC manage to get more people to support their platform? Only time may tell...
Big change in support; Lime/Monkey jumps to the lead, takes support away from Istillian/Darkslayer
First, there has been a big change in support. Lime/Monkey, previously in third place with 23.1% of the vote, has leaped into first place with 37.0% of the vote. Istillian/Darkslayer received an equally big blow in the opposite direction, dropping from 46.2% to 33.3%. Kazaman/UPC remained at around the same number of votes, dropping slightly from 30.8% to 29.6%; however, this may be the product of the one extra respondent we had when comparing this poll with the previous poll. It seems that more uncommitted Istillian/Darkslayer voters all simultaneously switched sides to being Lime/Monkey supporters, as we will soon see that the remaining Istillian/Darkslayer voters are significantly more sure of their voting choice than the average voter of the other tickets; it remains unclear why this is, but perhaps this may be due to GOTV efforts from the Lime/Monkey campaign, as well as their several campaign updates throughout the past few days. Meanwhile, a remarkable steadiness was observed in Kazaman/UPC voters, with the number remaining unchanging, which may be due to the relative controversy surrounding their platform observed in the last poll. Supporters of their platform may have supported the Kazaman/UPC ticket all along, while detractors clearly have a lower chance of voting for the ticket. It is very important to note that only one vote separates each of the tickets, so these results must be taken with a grain of salt.
Vast majority of voters have not changed their minds, but everyone who changed their minds now support Lime/Monkey
The below graph shows that 89% of all voters have not changed their votes since the last poll, but the 3 respondents who said they changed their mind all voted for Lime/Monkey in this poll, with the final voter increase for the ticket coming from the extra respondent this poll received. This, again, may signify to an apparent success in the Lime/Monkey GOTV campaign in taking support from the previous lead ticket, Istillian/Darkslayer, as Kazaman/UPC did not gain anything from this fall in Istillian/Darkslayer support, which all but rules out something wrong done by that ticket.
Istillian/Darkslayer supporters much more committed than other tickets' supporters, possible sign of large base
The methodology of this section is a bit complicated, so please bear with me here. Respondents were polled on how committed they were to their choice, with 1 being absolutely sure and 5 being completely not sure, and this score was tallied up for each ticket. Then, this score was divided by the number of respondents who voted for said ticket. This produces a value of average support, which is more favourable for a candidate the lower it is.
Istillian/Darkslayer Value of Average Support: 1.56 (14 total points/9 supporters)
Kazaman/UPC Value of Average Support: 2.75 (22 total points/8 supporters)
Lime/Monkey Value of Average Support: 2.70 (27 total points/10 supporters)
As we can see, Istillian/Darkslayer supporters are on average over 1 point more sure about their choice than supporters of Lime/Monkey and Kazaman/UPC, with Lime/Monkey voters slightly more sure than Kazaman/UPC voters. This may be due to former voters of Istillian/Darkslayer who were less sure migrating to the Lime/Monkey ticket, which would lower both their number of supporters and average value of support.
Time and discussion with candidates cited as reasons for vote change
See comments, attached below:
More time to stew thoughts
Personal long-form discussions with both the Kaz/UPC ticket and the Lime/Monkey ticket have pulled me somewhere between those two tickets as my choices
Personal long-form discussions with both the Kaz/UPC ticket and the Lime/Monkey ticket have pulled me somewhere between those two tickets as my choices
Lime is growing on me but Istillian is still my first choice
I love you, Forilian <3
Kaz/UPC's platform is a lot more lacking than the two other platforms, especially in comms and radio.
I love you, Forilian <3
Kaz/UPC's platform is a lot more lacking than the two other platforms, especially in comms and radio.
Ultimately, this election has come down to a tight conclusion, and it will be very interesting to see who will win this three-way race. Success will depend on GOTV efforts and election-day activity. Can Lime/Monkey continue draining support from other tickets? Can Istillian/Darkslayer reverse this trend of dropping support? Can Kazaman/UPC manage to get more people to support their platform? Only time may tell...
