- Pronouns
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A REAL POLLING CENTRE, ARNHELM - A Real Newspaper recently polled citizens on the Presidential Election taking place on Friday, 30 April. There were 26 respondents.
Istillian/Darkslayer leads in race but shy of a majority; other tickets trail behind
The Istillian/Darkslayer campaign currently leads the race at 46.2%, a few percent short of a majority; the Kazaman/UPC ticket trails at 30.8%, and the Lime/Monkey campaign follows at 23.1%. Respondents seem to be satisfied with the field of the race, as there were no responses choosing the option of ROE/RON. The relative distance between the Istillian/Darkslayer campaign and the other tickets seem to suggest that they are the favourites in the race; however, a runoff is currently likely. The Istillian/Darkslayer duo may wish to step up their GOTV campaigns if they wish to win outright without a runoff; however, as we will soon see, they are also very favoured in the event of a runoff. If there were to be a runoff, both the Kazaman/UPC and the Lime/Monkey tickets have a chance of facing off against Istillian/Darkslayer, with the Kazaman/UPC ticket slightly favoured.
Lime/Monkey's plight; Istillian/Darkslayer with large general support
Next, the ARN asked respondents to rank the tickets from 1 to 3, with 1 being the most favourable and 3 being the least favourable. A graph of the results can be found below. As we can see, the Istillian/Darkslayer not only leads in first choice, but also second choices, meaning that in the event of a runoff they are also favoured to win. Here the plight of the Lime/Monkey campaign is shown; a majority of respondents marked the ticket as their third choice, meaning that they may have a harder time picking up votes from supporters of other tickets should they enter into a runoff. The Lime/Monkey campaign clearly has their ardent supporters; however, their support seems to drop off beyond this base, which separates them from the other tickets in this race. The Kazaman/UPC ticket has plenty of supporters who would vote for them if their first choice were eliminated from the race, and if they want to win this race Kazaman and UPC will need to convince voters to support them over their first choice.
Istillian/Darkslayer leading in age groups with most responses; other tickets not without supporters
The ARN then took the numbers from the previous question and separated them out by age group. As you may see below, the earlier age groups had much less responses, so take the data there with a grain of salt. First choices get 1 point, second choice 2 points, and third choice 3 points in this chart, so a lower score means more support. Istillian/Darkslayer leads in all age groups from 6-12 months to 5+ years (with a tied lead in 1-2 years), while Lime/Monkey leads in 3-6 months and Kazaman/UPC leads in the sole response of <3 months. From this, we can see that Istillian/Darkslayer clearly has a lot of general support, while Kazaman/UPC mostly has second place, and Lime/Monkey mainly trails in age groups, in particular those with 5+ years in the region.
Istillian/Darkslayer has most benefits from potential runoff
The Istillian/Darkslayer campaign would get 75% of Kazaman voters' votes should there be a runoff between Istillian/Darkslayer and Lime/Monkey, and 66% from the Lime/Monkey campaign in the event of a runoff with the Kazaman/UPC ticket. No tickets would get more votes from the losing 3rd ticket than the Istillian/Darkslayer campaign. In the unlikely event where there is a runoff with Istillian/Darkslayer not in it, Kazaman/UPC would net 66% of the vote from Istillian/Darkslayer voters, putting them ahead of Lime/Monkey.
Divergent views on platforms
The comments on why respondents chose the way they did largely pointed to platforms, with very large variation in views on each candidate's platform. Kazaman/UPC's platform, in particular, had a lot of opposing views, while other platforms had more general consensus views.
General Comments
The comments generally expressed positivity towards this election cycle, and a lot of respondents are looking forward to election day.
Another poll will be coming later this week to gage whether public opinion has changed in the time since this poll!
Istillian/Darkslayer leads in race but shy of a majority; other tickets trail behind
The Istillian/Darkslayer campaign currently leads the race at 46.2%, a few percent short of a majority; the Kazaman/UPC ticket trails at 30.8%, and the Lime/Monkey campaign follows at 23.1%. Respondents seem to be satisfied with the field of the race, as there were no responses choosing the option of ROE/RON. The relative distance between the Istillian/Darkslayer campaign and the other tickets seem to suggest that they are the favourites in the race; however, a runoff is currently likely. The Istillian/Darkslayer duo may wish to step up their GOTV campaigns if they wish to win outright without a runoff; however, as we will soon see, they are also very favoured in the event of a runoff. If there were to be a runoff, both the Kazaman/UPC and the Lime/Monkey tickets have a chance of facing off against Istillian/Darkslayer, with the Kazaman/UPC ticket slightly favoured.
Lime/Monkey's plight; Istillian/Darkslayer with large general support
Next, the ARN asked respondents to rank the tickets from 1 to 3, with 1 being the most favourable and 3 being the least favourable. A graph of the results can be found below. As we can see, the Istillian/Darkslayer not only leads in first choice, but also second choices, meaning that in the event of a runoff they are also favoured to win. Here the plight of the Lime/Monkey campaign is shown; a majority of respondents marked the ticket as their third choice, meaning that they may have a harder time picking up votes from supporters of other tickets should they enter into a runoff. The Lime/Monkey campaign clearly has their ardent supporters; however, their support seems to drop off beyond this base, which separates them from the other tickets in this race. The Kazaman/UPC ticket has plenty of supporters who would vote for them if their first choice were eliminated from the race, and if they want to win this race Kazaman and UPC will need to convince voters to support them over their first choice.
Istillian/Darkslayer leading in age groups with most responses; other tickets not without supporters
The ARN then took the numbers from the previous question and separated them out by age group. As you may see below, the earlier age groups had much less responses, so take the data there with a grain of salt. First choices get 1 point, second choice 2 points, and third choice 3 points in this chart, so a lower score means more support. Istillian/Darkslayer leads in all age groups from 6-12 months to 5+ years (with a tied lead in 1-2 years), while Lime/Monkey leads in 3-6 months and Kazaman/UPC leads in the sole response of <3 months. From this, we can see that Istillian/Darkslayer clearly has a lot of general support, while Kazaman/UPC mostly has second place, and Lime/Monkey mainly trails in age groups, in particular those with 5+ years in the region.
Istillian/Darkslayer has most benefits from potential runoff
The Istillian/Darkslayer campaign would get 75% of Kazaman voters' votes should there be a runoff between Istillian/Darkslayer and Lime/Monkey, and 66% from the Lime/Monkey campaign in the event of a runoff with the Kazaman/UPC ticket. No tickets would get more votes from the losing 3rd ticket than the Istillian/Darkslayer campaign. In the unlikely event where there is a runoff with Istillian/Darkslayer not in it, Kazaman/UPC would net 66% of the vote from Istillian/Darkslayer voters, putting them ahead of Lime/Monkey.
Divergent views on platforms
The comments on why respondents chose the way they did largely pointed to platforms, with very large variation in views on each candidate's platform. Kazaman/UPC's platform, in particular, had a lot of opposing views, while other platforms had more general consensus views.
Kazaman/UPC bring unconventional yet interesting ideas with potential to the table, Lime and Monkey have obviously poured a lot of work into their platform, and Istillian/Darkslayer are ok I guess
Kazaman's platform really tells me that he has no idea what's going on, but he wants us to believe he does because of "vision". Plans very detached from what is possible or beneficial.
I'm not sure what I'm being asked here. There are several possibilities.
Lime's platform is the best.
Platform answers.
I'm still very unsure about who I'm going to end up voting for, but Kaz/UPC seemed to break the mould. They were the ones that immediately stood out when I read their campaign.
WA Paralegals program
Platform quality
Kazaman's platform really tells me that he has no idea what's going on, but he wants us to believe he does because of "vision". Plans very detached from what is possible or beneficial.
I'm not sure what I'm being asked here. There are several possibilities.
Lime's platform is the best.
Platform answers.
I'm still very unsure about who I'm going to end up voting for, but Kaz/UPC seemed to break the mould. They were the ones that immediately stood out when I read their campaign.
WA Paralegals program
Platform quality
General Comments
The comments generally expressed positivity towards this election cycle, and a lot of respondents are looking forward to election day.
I think the election will be interesting
This will be an interesting election and term, no matter who wins.
All tickets are wonderful and I'd vote for all three if I could
Glad to have a competitive race with such different platforms
Kazaman clearly understands how critical an overarching strategic vision is. I'm not seeing that to the same degree with the other tickets.
Lime/Monkey have a comprehensive platform with lots of detail and new ideas. Ist/Dark is alright but mostly status quo. Kaz/UPC don't even mention Comms and Radio - two of our largest and most activity ministries, so I don't see how they can be President if they don't even have plans for every Ministry.
Seems to be competitive!!
This will be an interesting election and term, no matter who wins.
All tickets are wonderful and I'd vote for all three if I could
Glad to have a competitive race with such different platforms
Kazaman clearly understands how critical an overarching strategic vision is. I'm not seeing that to the same degree with the other tickets.
Lime/Monkey have a comprehensive platform with lots of detail and new ideas. Ist/Dark is alright but mostly status quo. Kaz/UPC don't even mention Comms and Radio - two of our largest and most activity ministries, so I don't see how they can be President if they don't even have plans for every Ministry.
Seems to be competitive!!
Another poll will be coming later this week to gage whether public opinion has changed in the time since this poll!
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