ENN December 2015 Election Coverage
- Thread starter HEM
- Start date
- Pronouns
- he / him / his
All the "real life" names are mezapper said:JOHN MAJOR
Was that carrot?
I just produce them in order to simulate different points of view when I don't have real people to do it for me.John Major and Paul Krugman have been working for ENN for years. :emb:
- Pronouns
- he / him / his
HEM: And we are back, with some of the first results in. Polls have now been open just three hours, and here is how things are shaking up.
After a literal dead heat for a few hours, Kraketopia has bought himself a tiny bit of breathing room. With as little as 1/2 of the vote in, however, this race is still very close. Now turning to our political panel: do we see anything in these early numbers?
Calvin Coolidge: I think that both NK and Kraken should be worried it's still so close. They both needed momentum going into this to pull ahead, and it looks like nobody got it.
Aexnidaral: If I had to prognosticate at gun point: Kraken's number should look better right now, unless the older active members are saving their voters for closer until the end.
HEM: Looking at Calvin's poll numbers, do you think the debates will have an impact on the final result?
Aexnidaral: Absolutely. If I had to say anything it seems like Kraken's over aggressiveness hurt him
Calvin Coolidge: I think it shows that they do. Possibly more than ever this year, since we have so many undecideds.
HEM: Alrighty folks. We are going to cut to smutty late night television. We'll be back in the morning with dayside to discuss the results further. From everyone here at ENN, goodnight.
After a literal dead heat for a few hours, Kraketopia has bought himself a tiny bit of breathing room. With as little as 1/2 of the vote in, however, this race is still very close. Now turning to our political panel: do we see anything in these early numbers?
Calvin Coolidge: I think that both NK and Kraken should be worried it's still so close. They both needed momentum going into this to pull ahead, and it looks like nobody got it.
Aexnidaral: If I had to prognosticate at gun point: Kraken's number should look better right now, unless the older active members are saving their voters for closer until the end.
HEM: Looking at Calvin's poll numbers, do you think the debates will have an impact on the final result?
Aexnidaral: Absolutely. If I had to say anything it seems like Kraken's over aggressiveness hurt him
Calvin Coolidge: I think it shows that they do. Possibly more than ever this year, since we have so many undecideds.
HEM: Alrighty folks. We are going to cut to smutty late night television. We'll be back in the morning with dayside to discuss the results further. From everyone here at ENN, goodnight.
We've already got 53 votes in. How many do we think we'll have at the end? We have 57 last cycle, and that seems likely to be smashed. 75 votes? 100 votes?
- Pronouns
- he / him / his
HEM: And we are back. A close election has gotten even closer over the nighttime hours, with only a single vote separating our candidates:
John Major: You can't get much closer than this, with a different of only 2% of the vote. This election is crazy, crazy close.
Paul Krugman: We spent a lot of time talking about the voters who said they were undecided, but when prodded for an answer, chose Kraketopia and whether Ninja Kittens could peel some of them away. It looks like she did.
Michelle Bachmann: I think we've seen a pivotal shift in the race. We had two major scenarios when voting opened: Ninja Kittens taking the election by a hair, or Kraketopia winning by more than we expected. I think something has fundamentally shifted, and Ninja Kittens will probably squeak through here. Kraketopia just could not seal the deal.
John Major: I wouldn't go that far, Michelle. I think Kraketopia has maintained a steady lead throughout the contest. He might not get the commanding mandate he wants, but I think the smart money is still on him. The less engaged members who are likely to stumble into the voting booth at the very end will recognize his name, know he is a solid official, and give him their vote.
Paul Krugman: Let's assume that what we found in our poll still stands: that the ancient members of this region are the undecideds. They are probably the citizens who are still holding onto their vote. If they stick to their roots, to their gut, and vote for Kraketopia in the end, he could still pull this off.
HEM: Breaking news, folks. Kraketopia's running mate, Trinnien, just made the following statement in the EuroChat Skype channel.
Paul Krugman: Very interesting.
Michelle Bachmann: Look, if I am Kraketopia or Trinnien right now, I am very nervous. I am very very nervous. Where are the last votes coming from? When are they coming in? Maybe I have a few friends holding their votes, maybe I haven't voted yet, but we have already seen a 6+ vote swing away from Kraketopia at a time where we all thought he was wrapping this race up. There are not guarantees.
HEM: Could we be close to facing our first ever tied election?
John Major: Honestly, I doubt it. Europeians like sealing up contests, and I think the last voters in will deliver a decisive winner.
Michelle Bachmann: I wouldn't bet money on it, but it is certainly possible. I think this region was really ready to give the candidates a critical eye in this election, and the totality of them may not mind waiting another 48 hours to make sure they are picking the best possible leader.
HEM: Alrighty folks, we'll be back with more coverage and discussion from our panel after this.
John Major: You can't get much closer than this, with a different of only 2% of the vote. This election is crazy, crazy close.
Paul Krugman: We spent a lot of time talking about the voters who said they were undecided, but when prodded for an answer, chose Kraketopia and whether Ninja Kittens could peel some of them away. It looks like she did.
Michelle Bachmann: I think we've seen a pivotal shift in the race. We had two major scenarios when voting opened: Ninja Kittens taking the election by a hair, or Kraketopia winning by more than we expected. I think something has fundamentally shifted, and Ninja Kittens will probably squeak through here. Kraketopia just could not seal the deal.
John Major: I wouldn't go that far, Michelle. I think Kraketopia has maintained a steady lead throughout the contest. He might not get the commanding mandate he wants, but I think the smart money is still on him. The less engaged members who are likely to stumble into the voting booth at the very end will recognize his name, know he is a solid official, and give him their vote.
Paul Krugman: Let's assume that what we found in our poll still stands: that the ancient members of this region are the undecideds. They are probably the citizens who are still holding onto their vote. If they stick to their roots, to their gut, and vote for Kraketopia in the end, he could still pull this off.
HEM: Breaking news, folks. Kraketopia's running mate, Trinnien, just made the following statement in the EuroChat Skype channel.
Paul Krugman: Very interesting.
Michelle Bachmann: Look, if I am Kraketopia or Trinnien right now, I am very nervous. I am very very nervous. Where are the last votes coming from? When are they coming in? Maybe I have a few friends holding their votes, maybe I haven't voted yet, but we have already seen a 6+ vote swing away from Kraketopia at a time where we all thought he was wrapping this race up. There are not guarantees.
HEM: Could we be close to facing our first ever tied election?
John Major: Honestly, I doubt it. Europeians like sealing up contests, and I think the last voters in will deliver a decisive winner.
Michelle Bachmann: I wouldn't bet money on it, but it is certainly possible. I think this region was really ready to give the candidates a critical eye in this election, and the totality of them may not mind waiting another 48 hours to make sure they are picking the best possible leader.
HEM: Alrighty folks, we'll be back with more coverage and discussion from our panel after this.
For anyone who is wondering what kind of fuzzy math Bachmann is using (arguable!
- as Elections Official, I have decided that in the event that a run-off is needed, I will pause for 24 hours to permit a "re-campaign" period. The run-off is not required by law to be "immediate," so this may result in a different response from voters - and would hopefully remove the need for any of the other tie-breaking procedures.A run off, if required, will begin at approximately midnight EST on Sunday, December 6th.
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- he / him / his
How is this race so close? Did the debates have a big impact?
HEM: To our viewers in Europeia and around the world, welcome back to ENN's coverage of the November 2015 General Elections. I'm HEM Tiberius, and with over sixty votes cast, ENN is still unable to make a projection on who will be our next President:
The lead has now flipped back to Kraketopia after Ninja Kittens lead by a single vote for a few hours.
On our panel today is former Senator Shin 2.0, WA Delegate Mousebumples, ACE Party Chairman Aexnidaral, and Culture Minister Netz. Our first question is an obvious, are we surprised?
Mousebumples: Not really, no. Not that I expected this, exactly, per se. But I'm not surprised.
Aexnidaral: I am surprised it's as close as it's been, when I refer to close, I usually think within a 5 or 7 point margin, this is excruciating. We are back to a 50-50 split!
Mousebumples: Reminds me, and many I'm sure, of the Sopo-Calvin contest back in February.
Netz: I was expecting it to be a good race, but I was definitely not expecting it to be this close.
Shin: I think close races are the norm - we enjoy the closeness of a good campaign. But this one is too close for it to be expected
Aexnidaral: If this were real life I'd say "NK's turnout operation is doing far better than I thought", but... it's not so I'll settle with "wow, the newbies really like her."
Netz: I like how close it is, it keeps it interesting, but I'm glad I'm not one of the candidates it'd be killing me
Shin: I also believe being able to see the vote is impacting the race
HEM: Besides being able to see the results, what do you think contributed to this being such a close race? Going into election day the conventional wisdom seemed to be that Kraketopia was leading by a hair.
Mousebumples: For newer members, NK was the recent CA chair. They weren't around when Kraken was President. If they're not involved in the Navy, they may have no clue who he is. NK is a visible individual to newcomers that are CA members. Kraken isn't.
Aexnidaral: It's hard to say, but to some extent I think Kraken's aggressiveness and dismissiveness towards NK steered some votes away from him at the end of the debates.
I'm going to jokingly refer to everyone sitting on the election page and refreshing as 'exit polling', and I think it's really clear that the split is in the newer members. Early this morning the split was 60 krak/ 40 NK, and it's bounced around between a 1 vote lead or tie when the newer guys have been voting.
Mousebumples: How many people have really read and followed the debates though?
Shin: Yeah there is no doubt that Kraken represents the establishment
Mousebumples: It's great to say that debates are making the big impact, but we had maybe 25 people in #euro for the debate, and 10 of them are usually there and are international players that can't vote.
Aexnidaral: Didn't like 32 people take Panda's poll? No, that was HEM's with the higher numbers, ok!
Mousebumples: Some people read the debate, but I don't think most newcomers have. I hope I'm wrong - which is why I linked it in the Region-Wide TG - but to make sweeping statemtents like that seems like you're over-estimating things. I don't think that the debates were that big of a swing. To say it steered away "some votes" may be valid. But I don't know if that is sufficient explanation. Both candidates lost the Domestic Debate in my view.
Aexnidaral: After the FA debate Krake had 70% leaning or outright support; NK had 35; after the Domestic Debate krak drops to 50% with NK at 45%. Kraken will win. With the vote margin being so close. Inevitably hy and DH will vote for Kraken and push him over the top.
Mousebumples: There are more votes outstanding, probably.
HEM: And that folks, we'll be right back!