[flash=250,210]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GA0w66FxtCQ[/flash]
HEM: And we are back with the conclusion of our polling analysis!
John Major: About damn time, I've been analyzing this poll for like a week now.
HEM: Stfu! Anyway, back to Paul Krugman with the numbers. Paul?
Paul Krugman: Right you are HEM. We left off with this question: is there a generational divide in the numbers? That is to say, do certain age demographics support one candidate over another?
Michelle Bachmann: Indeed we were!
Paul Krugman: Well, we at ENN broke down the numbers, and looked at what candidate each demographic supported.
So, for instance, 33% of those who said they had been in Europeia under 3 months - 1 year, 33% voted for Kraketopia, 25% for Ninja Kittens, 8% for Shuford, and 33% were undecided. We compressed the categories from a poll a little bit to get larger bins, and hopefully a little more clarity, but it looks like we can only draw a few conclusions.
John Major: I think what is extraordinarily interesting is that while the electorate is extremely undecided on the whole, the 1 - 3 year demographic has no undecideds at all, and they are breaking solidly for Ninja Kittens.
Michelle Bachmann: It is also very interesting that the majority of the undecideds are coming from the older members. A majority of those that have been in Europeia over 3 years are undecided, with Kraketopia and Ninja Kittens almost spilling the percentage of them that have made up their mind.
Paul Krugman: While there don't seem to be any huge demographic splits, 1 - 3 years is clearly a pivotal demographic to win, and they are carrying Ninja Kittens. I think this is the generation that has been told about this Very Great And Political Europeia, and they are hoping to recreate it. While the newer members haven't seen Kraketopia as President, but have seen his awesome work as Grand Admiral and are looking to give him a shot as President, and the older members just can't make up their damn minds.
HEM: Alrighty, we are going to bring in some other voices. With us now we have ACE Party Chairman, Aexnidaral Seymour, Minister Netz, Vice President Calvin Coolidge and Assembly Chair GraVandius. Welcome guys. Now tell me, has this close election surprised you?
Aexnidaral: Hmmmmm... kind of? Going into it I honestly though Kraken would've been able to just walk right into the Presidency. Kraken has a very solid platform, but I honestly think it could have, and should have been stronger. I think his debate performances really showed and improved upon some of what his platform was lacking and showed a little more of his ambition and drive. While I found the platform solid it was a little underwhelming, and that's where I think NK's opening was, and why she chose to launch her campaign.
Netz: Before NK stood it definitely looked like Kraken was going to have an easy run to the presidency. I am happy that NK stood and created some competition because it makes the whole race a lot more interesting. Through that competition it created a different dynamic to the race, and helped cement different ideas that the candidates had. It didn't upset my expectations, it definitely improved upon them and made the race much better and much more worthwhile to the region.
Calvin Coolidge: Not really. I think the debates show the real race, and they show that NK, while a passionate candidate, is struggling to match Kraken on the issues in his wheelhouse. I'm not surprised that this race is close, considering we had three terms of the same President, people like to see election excitement.
HEM: What do you think about this demographic breakdown? Any surprises there?
Calvin Coolidge: I'd say it's surprising NK has more of the experienced vote than Kraken.
Aexnidaral: Yeah, that's more surprising
Honestly, I think this election hinges on only one thing: how many younger members break for NK. I'll rename the three categories: newbies, moderately old members, and the ones practically collecting euro social security.
The old, older members 3+ yrs will break, I'm almost certain, heavily for Kraken. At the end of the day the moderate members are going to be split more evenly, I feel like for some reason those numbers are overstating her lead.
If NK wins, it'll be because the newer members break her way if they can be bothered to actually show up to vote.
Netz: The two groups are actually pretty close. I do wonder how the small percentages who said they’d vote for Shufie would vote now
Aexnidaral: I'd also wager that the "undecideds" who are older members have a softer undecided, they're a lot more likely to be "undecided" but /lean/ to supporting a candidate; whereas the younger members are what I would say are hard undecideds, actually, fundamentally, unsure.
Netz: I think the older members who voted undecided were more waiting to see how a candidate could “wow” them, to sway their opinion
GraVandius: That does suprise me in some ways and in others does not. NK to me at least seems to be the more energizeing canidate while Kraken seeems to rest on past experience and I would have though that would have garnered her the "young vote" while Kraken would garner the suport of the "old vote". However it apears to be haveing the oposite efect. I'm not suprised however that over 50% of the 3+ years voters are undecided. They probably want to take thier time to finalize the decision of who they want. I also feel that it is unsuprising that NK has a superior lead in the 1-3 year range as that is the group she herself falls into. If the 3+ years break in Kraken's direction as many suspect then NK has to get the "newcomers" to come out in droves in her suport.
Netz: I think the newer members are leaning towards Kraken in that vote BECAUSE of his experience. The newer members don’t necessarily know the two candidates and may not have spoken to, or communicated with them, but it has been made pretty clear that Kraken has a long history of experience, and so the newer members might have instinctually been drawn to that in lieu of actually having the knowledge of the two candidates to form an opinion off of.
Writinglegend: Which is surprising considering NK has a lot to leverage off of recently being CA Chair. But, in looking at it, Kraken has been a highly successful GA where newcomers also go.
HEM: Changing tact for a second. We are talking a lot about this poll, but do you guys think the race has significantly changed at all since this poll was commissioned?
Aexnidaral:Absolutely, like I said previously, I think post debates the older members have become more decided, towards Kraken, and the mid aged members have become less spread, closing the gap.
Netz: I think the debates have added more substance to the two tickets, so where someone might have been undecided before, the debates and answers that the two candidates have given would have helped those people to decide on who they want to vote for
Calvin Coolidge: I think this second debate has shifted people's minds, if they're paying attention.
Writinglegend: Pretty much this. I'm glad we've had two fantastically hosted debates that forced candidates to give more details rather than restate their platform.
Aexnidaral: If anything, I think the debates have highlighted what we've all suspected from the beginning: kraken is the candidate of germane hard experience, and NK is the underdog with a vision.
Writinglegend: Which is something we've been too common with in the past: generic questions that are simply restatements of platforms which don't always lead to a plethora of details the voters should have.
Netz: The actual substance presented in the debates has been great. It's been really helpful to get to know where the candidates stand and what they will actually bring to the table, rather than posts of empty promises and vague, half-formed ideas.
GraVandius: I think the large deciding faction, is in reality is the 0-6 monthers who are not that active. They probably did not read the debates if they were not there seeing it live. Both the candidates need to reach out to this demographic in order to win this election. As the older members shift to Kraken as others have said this group becomes more and more important.
HEM: The shuford platform got a lot of heat. Was the incredible negative reaction to the platform too harsh, or was it a case of "can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen?"
Writinglegend: Not too harsh. They're standing for President of Europeia, and must present a platform that shows.
Calvin Coolidge: They're platform was extremely weak, and deserved the scrutiny it got. They left so many blank spaces.
Aexnidaral: So many blank spaces that Taylor Swift could've written a song about it?
Netz: The excommunication typo was great, but their platform was half-baked at best. They forgot culture, for heavens sake. That should be an unforgivable offense.
GraVandius: t was definetly a case "can't stand the heat", as a person who was on a presidential ticket that took some heat for lacking in FA its important to be able to take it and learn from it. Me and Kaboom took the time to put together a "full" platform ahead of the game, I suspect shufie and prom did not follow suit.
Netz: You have to be able to learn from your mistakes. Their platform was extremely lacking in almost every possible area. If they learn from that, and move forward to improve the next time they should decide they have gained some experience and are ready to move forward in the region then they’ll be fine. But if they can’t take the criticism that was given to them that could be an issue moving forward.
HEM: FINALLY: What are your election predictions?
Aexnidaral: Depending on how the demographics break: NK by a hair, or Kraken by around 57%+
Writinglegend: Kraken wins by four-six votes.
GraVandius: That depends if NK can get the newcomers to come out, I think she wins this election by 4-5 votes, if not then this is probably going to be a Kraken win by a slight margin.
Netz: At the current moment, it looks like it could go either way. It really depends on what people decide to put extra value on when they go to the vote
HEM: Alrighty guys, thank you very much. ENN will be back to the opening of polls, and of course, to watch the dramatic results. We'll be back.
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