In a race that has probably been the hardest we've seen to accurately assess (especially with the late entry of a ticket that could very well make the runoff and even win), we'd like to present our Election Eve forecast now that a poll involving all 4 tickets has public results.
Projected Vote Share:
SkyGreen/Istillian - 30.56%
Darcness/UPC - 30.04%
Monkey/Writinglegend- 29.51%
Gaudosia/Pichtonia- 9.89%
Win Probability:
SkyGreen/Istillian - 62%
Monkey/Writinglegend- 23%
Darcness/UPC - 16%
Gaudosia/Pichtonia- <1%
(percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding)
I'll start by addressing the elephants in the room on vote share ("why isn't Sky/Ist higher based on polling?", "why do Monk/WL have a better chance of winning over Darc/UPC but a lower projected vote share?" I hear you cry).
I'll address vote share first; specifically, why Sky/Ist seem to have a small but significant decrease in projected vote share compared to polling. The explanation is two-fold: (1) Though higher than most, Sky/Ist (like almost all other tickets in this race) had a significant share of "leaning" voters that were not strongly supporting their candidate, creating uncertainty, and (2) momentum shown on The Panda's Pen's "describe your pres preference before/after debate" question showed a slight but notable shift that mostly went from Sky/Ist to Monk/WL, with a little bit to Gau/Pichto as well. Both of these factors have led to a slight depression of Sky/Ist's numbers to the benefit of Monk/WL, but I think the bigger takeaway is simply the outcome of this race is simply too close to call as of now. I'll delve into this a bit more on the next point.
Now, addressing win probability; specifically, why Monk/WL have a greater chance of winning than Darc/UPC. Again along the same lines of momentum, both tickets did solidify their bases a bit from the debate, but Monk/WL were able to grow their base during the debate while Darc/UPC's base seemed to stay the same size. In addition, public sentiment indicated that Monkey was most chosen as the winner of the debate (a variable we include in our model at a small but significant weighting), so we also give a slight edge to Monk/WL over Darc/UPC because of this. Overall, however, I would conclude that Sky/Ist seem to be in a decent position to advance to the runoff, and it's anyone's guess whether Monk/WL or Darc/UPC join them. That said, a Monk vs. Darc runoff is not out of the question with how close this race is and the effects of GOTV yet to be seen, but it would not be our first guess.
I would venture to say this is probably the least confident we've been going into an election, as there's only one poll to go off of that includes all 4 tickets and virtually no public endorsements (both firsts for this model). It's certainly the furthest the model has been stretched in 6 edition of running it, so we'll see what happens.
If and when the (almost certain) runoff occurs, we'll provide another update.
EDIT: Also regarding vote total projections, I do think it is important to at least note the emphasis the Frontier/Stronghold discussion has almost certainly played on this election, something our model did not account for and certainly making this an atypical election compared to past ones with a big focus on one major issue that we don't always see. As such, I can guess it has almost certainly contributed to the uncertainty of this cycle.