The polling data has reached significant sample status in Europeia (20 responses; 19 on the last question), and one message is clear. Sopo is well loved by the people of Europeia. We asked which candidate has the best platform, and Sopo rolled over the opposition with 65% approval. Compared to Ogastein (15%), Swakistek (15%), and Blumenwitz (5%), this number is quite decisive. Sopo scored even better on the question of who would be the best President, with 75% of the vote, compared to Swakistek at 15%, with Blumewitz and Ogastein bringing up the rear with 5% apiece.
The public may have noticed that I've skipped over the first question; I'm saving analysis of it for later, for reasons that may shortly become clear, if you're paying attention. After the strong endorsement of Sopo in the polling data, things get a little murkier. When asked who would make the best Vice President, an outstanding 50% supported Abbey Anumia, compared to HEM's reasonably strong showing of 30%, McEntire's lacklustre performance at 15%, and AA's phone-in result of 5%.
Hypotheticals Stand For Sopo (Mostly)
The hypothetical section imagined one extra candidate in each of four questions, to provide a benchmark against which we view these results. In the first, we see Lethen added to the mix; an idealistic and idealized version of Lethen, for most I'm sure, but interesting nonetheless. Sopo does well: nine votes to Lethen's six votes, with Swakistek, Blumenwitz and Ogastein picking up one vote each. This is not enough to win on a first ballot, but it suggests that Sopo would win.
Next we have the hypothetical with PhDre inserted, and Sopo wins handily on the first ballot. With twelve votes (60%), compared to PhDre and Swakistek at 3 votes (15%) apiece, and Blumenwitz and Ogastein at one vote (5%) each. The hypothetical with CSP inserted is more of the same, with Sopo garnering fourteen votes (70%), leaving CSP and Swakistek at two votes (10%) apiece, and Blumenwit and Ogastein bringing up the rear with one vote (5%) each; another first-ballot victory for Sopo.
What of the hypothetical with our intrepid Vice Presidential Candidate Abbey Anumia? I've saved the best for last. Abbey was the only hypothetical to actually beat Sopo in total vote count; nine votes (45%) to Sopo's eight votes (40%). This leaves Swakistek, Blumenwitz, and Ogastein with one vote (5%) each, and triggers a runoff, where Sopo needs to pick up all of the other three votes to win. It seems indeed that Abbey Anumia may in fact have been able to beat Sopo had she run as the Presidential Candidate, instead of the Vice Presidential Candidate.
One fascinating trend is that in all the hypotheticals except Abbey Anumia's, the hypothetical candidate was either outright second place or tied with Swakistek; to me this suggests a very strong preference for Sopo, but an even stronger preference against the other three candidates.
Comparatives Suggest VP Choices Critical
In the last question of the survey, which garnered only 19 responses, respondents were asked to rate a hypothetical term with each of the candidates as President against the previous term, on a five point scale, from "Much Worse" to "Worse" to "About the Same" to "Better" to "Much Better". Sopo was rewarded with the largest proportion of "much better" responses, 52.6% (10 responses). This compares favourably to the 10.5% (2 responses) garnered by Blumenwitz, the 15.8% (3 responses) garnered by Ogastein, and the 26.3% (5 responses) garnered by Swakistek. Please note that the percentages in this case are percentages of each candidate's total rankings; adding the percentages of different candidates together will not prove anything (but comparing them suggests things).
Furthermore, more people believed that Sopo's hypothetical presidency would be better or much better than the previous term than any other candidate; Sopo's combined percentage was 78.9% (15 responses), which compares favourably to Blumenwitz's 15.8% (3 responses), Ogastein's 47.4% (9 responses), and Swakistek's 52.6% (10 responses). Sopo's hypothetical term was least likely to have been worse or much worse than the previous term, receiving only 10.5% (2 responses) compared to Blumenstein's staggering 73.6% (14 responses), and Ogastein and Swakistek's much more modest 21.1% (4 responses) each, in which only one of the four responses was "much worse".
When asked to rank the candidates in order, from four to one, where four was the best ranking and one was the worst, the numbers tell a much different story. On this question, the tickets were listed in their entirety, both President and Vice Presidential names appeared on the form. There was very little to distinguish the candidates on this question; the raw numbers were as follows:
Sopo/HEM: Total of 55 ranking points, with an average of 2.62
Blumenwitz/AA: Total of 47 ranking points, with an average of 2.24
Ogastein/McEntire: Total of 51 ranking points, with an average of 2.43
Swakistek/Abbey Anumia: Total of 57 ranking points, with an average of 2.71
This suggests to me a combination of two likely scenarios. Firstly, the poll required a ranking with the larger number at the top of the ranking, which is counter intuitive to most; I cannot ignore the possibility that some people ranked with one as the highest ranking, despite the instructions of the poll. If you are aware that you did so, please contact me privately so I can assess the damage, so to speak.
The other fascinating suggestion that arises from these numbers is that the Vice Presidential candidates are having a major effect on the voting numbers. Abbey Anumia was easily the strongest Vice Presidential candidate, to HEM's fair but distant second place; perhaps we are noticing an effect wherein Abbey Anumia is providing a buoyant effect on Swakistek's candidacy, which is contrasted by HEM's anchor weighing down Sopo.
Closing Thoughts
Given the strength of the response for Sopo here, if there is an "anti-Sopo" camp, they need to get organized, and fast, if they are to have any hope of bringing down this behemoth. Given the support for Abbey Anumia, and the manner in which the data suggests she is propping up Swakistek's campaign, questions arise about the suitability of such a Presidential term when the most popular part of the candidacy will be out of touch for some time. The Swakistek campaign needs to find some love for Swakistek to have any hope of beating Sopo in a pitched election.
The lukewarm response to Ogastein suggests that his role in this election will be either powerbroker or spectator. It is advised that Ogastein find a way to ensure that the third place position affords him the opportunity to force a second ballot and then choose the winner. With the incredibly negative response to the self-admitted Troll Campaign of Blumenwitz and AA, it is suggested that you drop out now; you won't, but we suggest it anyway.
As always, polling data is not an election, and there is still a long ways to go; it is, however, rather clear that Sopo is the candidate to beat this election.
