Senate Election Liveblog - Dec. '23

Election Live Blog: December 2023​

Hello and welcome to the Euro538eia Senate Election Live Blog, now featuring a new logo!

This has turned from a sleepy Senate election with barely enough candidates to fill a rowboat to one with a bunch of late entrants. The fate of the Weighted Voting Amendment, a possible Constitutional Convention, and so much more is on the line in this election.

In the last few days, prominent Europeians like PhDre, upc, and Gem have stood to spice things up, and now it's an unpredictable race to the finish.

If you haven't yet, listen to yesterday's radio show, where Elio, upc, and I break down the latest developments - many of which happened while we were on air! Also, for context make sure you check out the EBC Senate End-of-Term and Executive Midterm Results, as well as Rand's recently released poll on the Weighted Voting Amendment.

To break down all of the latest developments, we are going to bring in some of our expert EBC pundits.

First, I want to bring in current Senator @Forilian, who won a by-election this term. Fori, I wonder if you can give us your perspective on the back half of this term? How's it been going? And what's surprised you about this election? Any predictions of who will win?

Second, I want to bring in one of those late arrivals to the race, former WA Minister @Josi. Josi, you stood for this race late, and then stood down shortly thereafter. What made you want to run, and why did you ultimately withdraw?

Finally, I want to bring in another late arrival, Senator @PhDre. Dre, you authored perhaps the most controversial proposal of this election, the Weighted Voting Amendment. We have seen dueling polls come out in recent days:

Conducted Nov. 28-30, 25 respondents

Conducted Nov. 9-11, 31 responses
​

Dre, what are you feeling on this election day, what do you make of these dueling numbers, and what do you think is the future of the Weighted Voting Amendment after this election?

 

[Forilian]

First, I want to bring in current Senator @Forilian, who won a by-election this term. Fori, I wonder if you can give us your perspective on the back half of this term? How's it been going? And what's surprised you about this election? Any predictions of who will win?

Hey McEntire, thanks for having me on! The past 25 days or so has been a bit more on the quiet side in terms of my Senate terms; although we did confirm a few people and passed a couple of bills, by-and-large things have been a bit quiet. I do want to qualify here that I think all the Senators did their job adequately and it’s no one’s fault in particular; however, even the main piece of discussion, weighted voting, stalled a bit in the middle of the term.

Nonetheless, weighted voting is now undoubtedly the hottest issue in the election. Now, I don’t believe it’ll be the *only* issue swinging voters, but I could certainly see it being something that weighs on voters’ minds. Something that surprised me early on was how basically all the candidates that stood were against weighted voting, which didn’t seem that representative of the region (even if a majority are against it didn’t seem like basically 100% were against). That has now fortunately been rectified with new candidates standing.

Another thing to keep in mind is that those who are against weighted voting are often *strongly* against it, which may influence their voting patterns more — I would expect the most outspoken anti-weighted voting candidate (I.e. you, McEntire) to win strongly. One thing that’s weird about this election is that one side (those opposed to weighted voting) seems to see the election as a referendum on the issue while the other side doesn’t — it’ll be interesting to see whether those against weighted voting will even consider voting for those who are even slight proponents for it.

 

[Josi]

Second, I want to bring in one of those late arrivals to the race, former WA Minister @Josi. Josi, you stood for this race late, and then stood down shortly thereafter. What made you want to run, and why did you ultimately withdraw?

I was listening to the Senate-Executive Poll Results when I registered. I felt like adding to the hype and UPC's words about trying to expand the election resonated with me. However, I realized it was just a moment of wishful thinking. I truly do not think I would do the job the justice I believe it deserves because of the holidays and how busy I have been with university. For now, I believe I am just going to hang out in the ERN and do what I do well.

 

[PhDre]

Dre, what are you feeling on this election day

Thanks for having me!

First of all, I think it's really fun to have a competitive election about issues that people feel passionately about! Having things at stake or caring about outcomes is really a ... fun part of a political simulator, so thanks to all who have engaged on the issue of Weighted Voting either in preliminary discussion or during the election itself.

I am feeling like voters having agency and empowering voters is something that we should embrace even more! Opponents of weighted voting are asking voters to consider policies before voting, or saying they won't vote for certain candidates because of their policy positions. In a weighted voting system, their support for candidates would translate directly to actual power in the Senate! I think that voters being able to empower senators would be exciting and it seems like folks are interested in the concept, with a big majority of respondents in Rand's poll saying they're willing to give it a shot.

what do you make of these dueling numbers

I think that the "dueling numbers" between two polls is really not all opponents of Weighted Voting are making it out to be. I think yes, people are passionate about this - but I also think that as of right now, the Weighted Voting Amendment is not ready for a vote! Speaker Elio wanted to move to a vote before the election, and I pushed back. I don't support the Weighted Voting Amendment as it is currently written or I would be agreeing with the Speaker and moving forward with a vote. I did the opposite, because I've been looking at feedback and concerns and attempting to address those concerns. I can see why even those who are interested in giving this a chance would be opposed as written, but open to the idea. For example, implementing Approval Voting (so that every voter can empower as many or as few candidates as they wish) is IMO a needed change for the Weighted Voting Amendment and something that many folks wanted in the in-depth poll.

what do you think is the future of the Weighted Voting Amendment after this election?

Well, that depends on the outcome of the election! I don't have a magic eight ball in front of me, but I do know that regardless of the outcome of the election, or whether I'm in the Senate or not, I'll keep trying to make Europeia better - whether that is via this reform, a "young citizen" seat reserved in the Senate, or trying to make UPC the most powerful delegate in NationStates (endorsements are weighted voting power in the World Assembly ). I do think that proponents and opponents both have a reason to want this to go to a referendum - so we'll see if that occurs. Personally, I think that we should be willing to give things a chance, and that we can always go back if we don't like it. After all, we literally split the executive in half and then remerged it! We're not afraid to try and see if we can improve Europeia - that's something that I love about this game and about our citizenry.

 

[McEntire]

Thank you, Fori, Josi, and PhDre for those contributions! I would invite you all to reply to one another's points, or ask any follow-ups that I may have missed. Also, if the audience has any questions for our panelists, feel free to ask them right here in this thread!

Now I want to bring in @SkyGreen. Sky, we now have 27 voters in this election. The race sits as follows:

• Elio, 21 votes
• UPC, 19 votes
• McEntire, 16 votes
• PhDre, 15 votes
• Cordova, 14 votes
• Chipoli and John Laurens tied at 9 votes
• August De Brus, 5 votes

Do these numbers surprise you? Who is beating the expectations game, and who's losing it?

On another note, 5 seats has pulled our ahead of 6 seats, by a vote of 16-13. Was that what you expected?

 

[SkyGreen]

Hey hello hi thanks for the invite McEntire.
I would actually say these are expected results. I think Elio leading the race was more or less a given. UPC is also unsurprisingly at the front.
Cordova getting 14 is perhaps a slight surprise, but a welcome one. I may have expected Chipoli to perform better.

I personally voted for 5 and 6 so I don't really have a horse in the race but it's unsurprising that the odd number is ahead of the even one

 

[Rand]

Thanks for having me, Mac!

Hey hello hi thanks for the invite McEntire.
I would actually say these are expected results. I think Elio leading the race was more or less a given. UPC is also unsurprisingly at the front.
Cordova getting 14 is perhaps a slight surprise, but a welcome one. I may have expected Chipoli to perform better.

I personally voted for 5 and 6 so I don't really have a horse in the race but it's unsurprising that the odd number is ahead of the even one

You raise an interesting point, Sky. I had assumed 5 was winning due to the large gap in votes between candidates #5 and #6. I forgot that historically, even Senate sizes have always struggled.

On that note: Did you know, in a recent EBC poll, 75% of citizens indicated that Senator PhDre's weighted voting proposal would make them more open to even Senate sizes?

Spoiler: Results

Maybe John Laurens and Chipoli, who both indicated opposition to weighted voting in their platforms, are rethinking that stance now! Just kidding, of course.

 

[McEntire]

Thank you for that analysis. We’re now at 44 votes, and the gaps between the candidates are starting to widen.

I’m going to go now to @Gem. Gem, you briefly stood for this election, then stood down. What made you want to run, and why did you ultimately decide not to?

Also, what do you think of these results? Do the results so far meet your expectations, and what do you think the current standings have to say about the issues in this race?

 

[McEntire]

We are just minutes from the polls closing, so I want to bring back in Senator @Forilian. Fori, first of all, how do you think you’d have fared in this election?

Second, now with the big picture view, what are your top two takeaways from this race? And what do you expect for the term ahead?

 

[Forilian]

We are just minutes from the polls closing, so I want to bring back in Senator @Forilian. Fori, first of all, how do you think you’d have fared in this election?

Second, now with the big picture view, what are your top two takeaways from this race? And what do you expect for the term ahead?

As usual I’m slightly late, but I think I would’ve done ok in this election. I don’t want to speculate too much given that every election is different, but I would suspect that I would’ve had a fighting chance at getting a seat. Either way, given that 3 of the 5 elected Senators want to continue the discussion on weighted voting, there’s no point in me having run anyways.

Two main takeaways:
1) The electorate does seem to want to give weighted voting a chance. At the very least, there weren’t enough voters who hated the weighted voting amendment so much that they voted against all the people who supported a discussion on it. Given that a majority of the elected Senators are supportive of trying weighted voting, I would expect the discussion to continue in the new Senate term.

2) I do expect to see more large changes/reforms proposed in this Senate term. That’s perhaps with a constitutional convention, but calls for reform have been increasing and I do expect that to start being discussed more formally in the near future.

 

[Gem]

Thank you for that analysis. We’re now at 44 votes, and the gaps between the candidates are starting to widen.

I’m going to go now to @Gem. Gem, you briefly stood for this election, then stood down. What made you want to run, and why did you ultimately decide not to?

Also, what do you think of these results? Do the results so far meet your expectations, and what do you think the current standings have to say about the issues in this race?

Sorry for my late response. I'm bad at keeping track of things.

Anyway, I stood for this election mostly because more candidates were publicly requested. As I mentioned in #grand-hall, I normally don't run for Senate unless if I have a strong legislative agenda to pursue, and this time I didn't. Polls opening the same day that the last of my transfer applications were due certainly didn't help either, and I ultimately decided that if I couldn't make a platform, then I shouldn't return to the Senate quite yet.

As for the results, I definitely expected Elio to do well, though they exceeded even my expectations. I also expected Chipoli to get the fifth seat instead of Cordova; a Europeian with a checkered past who hasn't been active for quite some time appearing out of the blue and running for Senate isn’t usually a recipe for success. I also think it's curious how close the 5 and 6 seat options were this race. I do think that, had 7 seats been an option, that may well have been the route that the citizenry would have gone for. Altogether though, I'd say this election didn't exactly shatter my predictions.