Senate Election Liveblog April 2024

Senate Election Liveblog April 2024
Hey y’all! It’s one of the most exciting days on the Europeian calendar, the Senate General Elections!

This election marks the first that newly minted Vice Chancellor @Pland Adanna is overseeing, and it certainly looks like it will be a busy one. @Gem, @Ervald, @Industhan, @Prim, @Cordova I, @Comfed, @JayDee, @Lloenflys, @Rand, and @Empire of Caldrasa have all declared their candidacy, meaning that we have ten candidates, breaking a two election streak of having eight. If you haven’t already, feel free to comb through each candidates platforms, which can be found here.

No polling has been conducted to gauge who the front-runner is could be, which makes this election all the more exciting. No one knows where anyone is!

Joining me today are @John Laurens, @Sincluda, @upc, and @nlaumeyer. To our guests, do you see any particular frontrunners in this election? How does this election shake up next to previous ones? And what’s one bold prediction you have as voting continues throughout the day? Finally, this race saw the late addition of Lloenflys and Caldrasa. How do you think this will affect the race?

Be sure to check back here throughout the day, as updates are provided and more questions are asked as we continue to bring guests on!​

 

[Caldrasa]

Please vote me!

 

[sanjurika]

Please vote me!

Please do not ask for votes in the Liveblog, this place is for election discussion and speculation. You can ask for votes in your platform or on Discord. Thanks!

 

[Caldrasa]

Please vote me!

Please do not ask for votes in the Liveblog, this place is for election discussion and speculation. You can ask for votes in your platform or on Discord. Thanks!

Sorry. Anyways, i am very sure lloen and cord will win

 

[John Laurens]

Thank you for having me! I’m happy to be here.

I have to say, Lloen as a front runner is no surprise to me. If Europeia could pick one person from each institution to best represent what it stands for, Lloen would represent the Senate.

I will say, I very much like the energy Caldrasa is bringing to the table. Energetic, kinda fun, irreverent in a way that breathes a bit of life into this election. I wish he had joined the race sooner.

 

[Caldrasa]

Thank you for having me! I’m happy to be here.

I have to say, Lloen as a front runner is no surprise to me. If Europeia could pick one person from each institution to best represent what it stands for, Lloen would represent the Senate.

I will say, I very much like the energy Caldrasa is bringing to the table. Energetic, kinda fun, irreverent in a way that breathes a bit of life into this election. I wish he had joined the race sooner.

I did think of joining way early, but the problem was, i was just too shy, i am a VERY young nation, and i gained my citizenship only a few weeks ago. I had way to many thoughts. In the end i just thought:"lets do somethin stupid" and i made my post...

 

[upc]

To our guests, do you see any particular frontrunners in this election?

I expect that Lloen and Prim will sweep. With that being said, this is a refreshingly large field with a number of very compelling candidates, and I am definitely looking forward to seeing how the election at large shakes out!

How does this election shake up next to previous ones?

The current field of candidates is just slightly larger than we have seen in the past couple of elections, but one thing that has surprised me has been how quiet it has seemed. I haven't gotten a single GOTV message, I don't really feel like people are chatting about it in the GH (or the associated Discord channel), I don't know. It might just be me though!

And what’s one bold prediction you have as voting continues throughout the day?

69 votes.

Finally, this race saw the late addition of Lloenflys and Caldrasa. How do you think this will affect the race?

Well I placed Lloen as one of my frontrunners, so I expect that he will throw someone out of the running, or maybe persuade enough people to vote for a larger Senate I suppose? My bet is on the former though. As for Caldrasa, their run is interesting, and while I don't see them having the support to win a seat in this race after standing so late, it is always cool to see newcomers getting interested in our institutions!

 

[Elio]

To our guests, do you see any particular frontrunners in this election? How does this election shake up next to previous ones? And what’s one bold prediction you have as voting continues throughout the day? Finally, this race saw the late addition of Lloenflys and Caldrasa. How do you think this will affect the race?

I think Lloen is an obvious frontrunner by default in any Senate election he's in. Lloen is one of these people who could very easily post no platform, do no campaigning, and still win in an absolute landslide every time. Cordova is also a strong candidate for me, having served a great term as Speaker after stepping up last minute when I left. I think Prim is also a pretty strong contender and likely to get a good vote share.

This election is active, and that's great! After a very sleepy Senate term we could have ended up with a very sleepy election too, and I'm glad we didn't. A diverse field of candidates is great to see - especially with some very new faces! I think, no matter what, we'll end up with a strong and focused Senate this term.

My bold prediction is that the candidates who have explicitly stated they'll "ignore" the Constitutional Convention will do well. Many Senators this term seemed to see the Constitutional Convention was on and go back to bed. As a result, more candidates have come out this election saying they're there to legislate, come what may. I think the region has an appetite for that approach again and will reward those candidates accordingly.

Lloen's late entry to the race is going to be a big blow to those newer candidates, and those who don't have broad coalitions of support naturally. Lloen is pretty much automatically going to win a seat, and will be a late and unwelcome spoiler for at least one person who will miss out as a result. On Caldrasa, I think it's great to see a brand new Citizen so engaged and willing to put themselves out there. Whilst I personally think their campaign is a bit "out there" in some ways, they should be lauded for taking a leap. Not too long ago, I was the new citizen having a punt at a Senate election, and it turned out for me!

Overall, excited for this race and excited to see how it turns out.

 

[sanjurika]

Roughly 2 hours into voting, and we've already seen a good number of voters!

Out of 29 votes in so far, here's how things are shaking up:

Cordova I - 69%
Lloenflys - 69%
Prim - 65.5%
Ervald - 55.2%
Comfed - 48.3%
JayDee - 48.3%
Rand - 41.4%
Empire of Caldrasa - 20.7%
Industhan - 13.8%

As it stands, a 5 person Senate is slightly favored over a 7 person Senate by one vote. This means that the names in bold would currently have a seat, and the names in italic would go into a runoff.

Contributors, any surprises in how the tally has gone so far? What would you estimate the likelihood of a runoff so far? Any other thoughts?

 

[Sincluda]

To our guests, do you see any particular frontrunners in this election? How does this election shake up next to previous ones? And what’s one bold prediction you have as voting continues throughout the day? Finally, this race saw the late addition of Lloenflys and Caldrasa. How do you think this will affect the race?

Thanks for having me!

Cord, Lloen, and Prim were likely shoe-ins since before voting opened, although I’m pleasantly surprised by Cord leading the pack, and Ervald reaching into that upper tier. I was expecting Prim to be far ahead of even the other frontrunners, since his platform was much more policy-focused. I think that goes to show how important experience can be in a race—both Cord’s and Lloen’s platforms were more about their success in the past and the kind of senator they are than about policy/ideas.

What makes this election unique is the lack of a popular newcomer candidate. We have two relatively newer faces in this election, and neither are looking too good early on. This might be because they’re too new. For instance, Fillet Minion had some preexisting notable experience in WAA and a stronger understanding of how the senate works, which allowed him to compete for (and win) a seat last election. Industhan has some ERN experience, and Caldrasa has done work in Gameside and Outreach, but neither have made an imprint yet on the public eye. I don’t think they’ll be winning this election, but hopefully they can begin making waves and learning about campaigning for a more successful go next time.

That leaves Comfed, JayDee, and Rand. If 7 seats are chosen, then they’ll all get in and this election is more or less decided. If things start leaning towards a 5-seater, then we could see some intense GOTV’ing between the 3 relatively experienced campaigns.

My bold prediction: The seat vote will tie, go to 5, and JayDee and Comfed will go to a runoff. Maximum excitement!

 

[nlaumeyer]

I think Cordova, Prime Llonflys, and Ervalds are shoe-ins at this game stage. Cordova one I am most certainly not surprised given his tenacity to get things done and his Stamina. I say Comfed and Jaydee still have a good fighting chance to get in. This is going to be an exciting election indeed. With Jaydee coming off his final presidency it could certainly be a different change from leading the region on the executive to being on the legislative side indeed.

 

[nlaumeyer]

I would say no surprises in how the election has gone. As for a run off, i think right now between this election and the voting, its going to be a real nail biter. 50% change of 5 seats which if we go that way, then we will have a 100%. so far this has been exciting!

 

[John Laurens]

Well, it doesn’t look like there were many surprises in this election.

How we feeling able to the Slate of Senator’s for this term?

 

[upc]

Well, it doesn’t look like there were many surprises in this election.

I think that the only somewhat surprising thing for me was ending up with a 7 seat Senate! Though that shouldn't have been that surprising, with so many compelling candidates running. I've also heard rumors that one or two candidates were GOTVing for a larger Senate...

How we feeling able to the Slate of Senator’s for this term?

The back half of this previous Senate term seemed, to me at least, to be characterized by criticisms of their activity levels. I am pretty optimistic that we won't have similar concerns with this Senate! I'm definitely looking forward to the term. Congrats again to everyone who was elected, and condolences to the runners up!

 

[John Laurens]

Yes, I agree that this group seems to have the potential to be more engaged this term!

 

[Sincluda]

The back half of this previous Senate term seemed, to me at least, to be characterized by criticisms of their activity levels. I am pretty optimistic that we won't have similar concerns with this Senate!

I agree with this! This is a very solid senate and I feel that things typically rubber-band back after a sleepier senate.

 

[Prim]

I think that the only somewhat surprising thing for me was ending up with a 7 seat Senate! Though that shouldn't have been that surprising, with so many compelling candidates running. I've also heard rumors that one or two candidates were GOTVing for a larger Senate...

I would hope that candidates #6 and 7 would GOTV for a larger Senate - it's only logical.

 

[Rand]

I think that the only somewhat surprising thing for me was ending up with a 7 seat Senate! Though that shouldn't have been that surprising, with so many compelling candidates running. I've also heard rumors that one or two candidates were GOTVing for a larger Senate...

I would hope that candidates #6 and 7 would GOTV for a larger Senate - it's only logical.

I wasn't exactly secretive about it.