RESULTS: December Senate Pre-Standing Poll

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January 2016 Senate Pre-Standing Poll Results
Written by Rand

The charts are hidden under spoilers (for those on mobile devices), with a text summary and analysis below. When polls closed, we had 34 respondents. The polls were conducted earlier this week in anticipation of the upcoming Senate election. I hope that this information is interesting and entertaining (whichever you'd find more valuable in a poll). If you have any questions or concerns, please send me a PM or contact me on Skype. Thanks! Now, for the results...

Demographics

When did you first apply for citizenship?
Late 2015: 26.5% (9)
Early 2015: 14.7% (5)
2014: 11.8% (4)
2013: 8.8% (3)
2012: 2.9% (1)
2011: 11.8% (4)
2010: 8.8% (3)
2009 or Earlier: 14.7% (5)

This is mostly interesting to get an idea of where most of our active players come from. Generally, there were fewer respondents as the years grew further away. The "2009 or Earlier" option was presumably chosen more because it covers a longer time period.

Have you ever run for Senate?

Yes, and I was elected: 47.1% (16)
Yes, but I was not elected: 11.8% (4)
No: 41.2% (14)

There's not much to say here. I found it interesting that the majority of respondents have run for Senate, and the overwhelming majority of those were elected.

In which of the following capacities have you served?

Citizens' Assembly / City Council: 97.1% (33)
Bar Association: 44.1% (15)
Chairman of the Citizens' Assembly / Mayor of the City Council: 32.4% (11)
Deputy Minister: 58.8% (20)
Cabinet: 58.8% (20)
Senate: 16 (47.1%) (Unsurprisingly, the same as the previous question!)
President or Vice President: 32.4% (11)
High Court: 23.5% (8)

I'm only including this in case anyone's curious.

Did you vote in the last Senate election?
Yes: 73.5% (25)
No, but had citizenship: 5.9% (2)
No, did not have citizenship: 20.6% (7)

This data is unremarkable. However, it does seem only about half of the number of citizens that voted in the last election (for an approximation: 303 votes / 6 candidates = 50.5) participated in this poll.

Candidates

Who would you like to see run for Senate?

Ordered alphabetically. Potential candidates listed were chosen by ENN Editors.
Aexnidaral Seymour 24 (70.59%)

Ninja Kittens 21 (61.76%)

Drecq 20 (58.82%)

Common-Sense Politics 19 (55.89%)

Moronist Decisions 18 (52.94%)
Writinglegend 18 (52.94%)

Sopo 17 (50%) - MAJORITY LINE-

Mousebumples 16 (47.06%)

Calvin Coolidge 15 (44.12%)

JGlenn 14 (41.18%)
Sloosh 14

GraVandius 13 (38.26%)
Kaboom 13
McEntire 13

Agent Shades 12 (35.29%)
Netz 12
Sanctaria 12

HEM 11 (32.25%)
Marnip 11

Kuramia 10 (29.41%)
Notolecta 10

Cool Spring 7 (20.59%)
Fortunado 7
Shin 2.5 7
shufordbrian 7

Zapper 6 (17.65)
-- Other 6*

Erebos 5 (14.71%)
Rave 5

Box 4 (11.76%)

* Ordered numerically.
"Anumia pls"
"Hyanygo"
"Rand"
"Ferdy" *
"Lethen" *
"Bananius"

All I have to say is that It's surprising (not in a bad way) to see Aexnidaral beating all incumbents, including the veteran Senators, and many other respected citizens. Aexnidaral Seymour has really rushed into the public view for this election. He leads the runner-up, Ninja Kittens, by ~9%, and the entrenched Senator Drecq (who will likely be the next Speaker) by ~12%. I believe the data speaks for itself.

* One respondent put both "Ferdy" and "Lethen" in the 'Other' choice. I counted this as two responses for 'Other'. For clarity, only five users chose 'Other'.

Rank the incumbents by who you would most like to be re-elected.
Malashaan excluded because he has announced that he will not be seeking re-election.
Drecq #1
Mean: 1.74
Mode: 1
Ninja Kittens #2
Mean: 2.26
Mode: 3
Common-Sense Politics #3
Mean: 2.29
Mode: 2
Kaboom #4
Mean: 3.16
Mode: 4
Fortunado #5
Mean: 3.95
Mode: 5

Now, this is some fascinating data. The first thing I see is that Senator Ninja Kittens' mean rating is lower than Senator Common-Sense Politics, but her mode rating is higher. What's up with that? Let's take a closer look.

The first column is each respondent's #1 pick, and the last column is each respondent's #5 pick.
* Order of rows randomized for protection of anonymity.
This image from the spreadsheet actually tells us a lot. What do you notice? Green all over #1, blue all over #4, and purple all over #5. Over #2 and #3, we see a mixture of orange and red, with some Green in #2 and some Blue in #3. As has become this term's norm, Senator Ninja Kittens and Senator Common-Sense politics are tied. We saw the same thing in the election back in October. We saw this again in the EBC midterm poll a few weeks ago.

The great Sen. Common-Sense Politics is tied with a newcomer to the Senate.

Look at that visual again. The orange seems splattered across the rankings. Look at the Distribution of Sen. CSP's ratings. Every bar has notable substance. People don't know what to think! How is he doing so well? It seems obvious, straightforward; he's one of our most talented legislators. He built our modern Navy, he's served as President and Speaker on multiple occasions. He was President before many of our members even discovered NationStates. Whenever he runs, he's tied for or very close to first place in the election. How isn't he on top then? Is it his 'bedside manner,' or is he simply unexciting? If we look at the "Comments for outgoing Senators" question, (spoiler alert) some mention that CSP wasn't as active as he could've and should've been. While in the past Senator Common-Sense politics has won (in essence) by default, that may change in upcoming elections as the tide slowly shifts to newer candidates. Whether this will grow or harm the Republic remains unseen.

Perhaps this isn't a fault for Sen. CSP but a victory for Sen. NK. This September, Senator Ninja Kittens entered the political arena with a successful campaign for Chair of the Citizens' Assembly. Since then, she's run a successful campaign for Senate, receiving the most votes out of the line-up of candidates, and a campaign for the Presidency, receiving just two less votes than veteran citizen and former President Kraketopia. How is she so successful, and where's she headed next? Unfortunately, we were unable to reach the Senator for comment.

In short, the status quo may be faltering. Deputy Speaker Common-Sense Politics and Senator Ninja Kittens are at a vague position in the middle of the pack. Sen. NK leads the newcomers, while Sen. CSP trails behind his fellow tenured Senators. Maybe I shouldn't be so fascinated by this stalemate. Both individuals are extremely capable and intelligent, and both are very straightforward- they will not conceal their distaste when it arises. The most significant difference is simply how many terms in the Senate they've served.

While Sens. NK and CSP are tied, Senator Fortunado struggles to catch up. The overwhelming majority rated Fortunado as their lowest choice for re-election. This isn't much of a fall for Fortunado, though; he took fifth place in the recent election by 0.3% (1 pt) of the votes, and was just 2.2% (8 pts) ahead of the 7th place candidates (Shin 2.0 and Rand). To put this further into perspective, he was 6.3% (19 pts) behind Sen. Ninja Kittens, the 1st place candidate. At first the voters were uncertain, but it seems certain now that Senator Fortunado will not be re-elected.

Meanwhile, Senator Drecq remains comfortably at the top of the polls, and Senator Kaboom sways between the middle rankings, neither doing outstandingly well or unacceptably under-achieving. Senator Kaboom's career has largely been an uphill battle, and this election was a triumph for him, but will his efforts be in vain?

What newcomer would you most like to see run for Senate?
Aex
Aexnidaral Seymour
AgentShades
AgentShades
AgentShades
Anumia
Bananius
Eudemra
GraV
Netz
Rave
Sanc
Sanctari
Sanctaria
Sanctaria
Sangria
Sloosh
Sloosh
sloosh
Sloosh
Sloosh
Sloosh
Sloosh
Sloosh
Sloosh
sloosh
Sloosh but he just got CA Chair soooooooo
Tomb
Zapper
Sorted alphabetically. Responses not naming an individual excluded.
Count:
Sloosh 11 (37.93%)
Sanctaria 4 (13.8%)
AgentShades 3 (10.34%)
Aexnidaral Seymour 2 (6.9%)
-- Other 9 (31.03%)
Sorted numerically. Presumably equivalent answers grouped. Individuals with a count of 1 grouped under 'Other'.

Sloosh, the newly-elected Chair of the Citizens' Assembly, leads the runner-up, Sanctaria, by 24.13% (7 pts). Sloosh is a bright newcomer to the region. His wave of popularity will either crash before the next Senate election or grow to a tsunami. In the recent CA Chair election, he overwhelmed well-respected incumbent GraVandius (who is expected to make a run) nearly unanimously, by a vote of 22-4.

I don't think Aex should be included here, considering that he's technically not a newcomer. I'm also not sure how Anumia sneaked in there (it's probably the doing of Shin).

If you had only one vote in the Senate election, who would you give it to?
Aex
Aexnidaral
Aexnidaral
Aexnidaral
Aexnidaral
Anumia
Axe [sic]
Common-Sense Politics
CSP
Drecq
Drecq
Drecq
Drecq
Drecq
Drecq
Drecq
Drecq.
Fortunado
HEM
Kaboom
Malashaan
Marnip
MD
Moronist Decisions
Moronist Decisions
Mousebumples
Ninja Kittens
Ninja Kittens
NK
Sanctaria
sopo
Sorted alphabetically. Responses not naming an individual excluded.
Count:
Drecq 8 (22.22%)
Aexnidaral Seymour 6 (16.67%)
Moronist Decisions 3 (8.33%)
Ninja Kittens 3 (8.33%)
Common-Sense Politics 2 (5.55%)
-- Other 8 (22.22%)
Sorted numerically. Presumably equivalent answers grouped. Individuals with a count of 1 grouped under 'Other'.

This question was deliberately vague. I wanted to see what names came to mind when people are asked who they'd vote for if they only had one vote. Again we see Senator Drecq leading, the rising star that is Aexnidaral Seymour still rising, and NK and CSP close to tied.

Are you planning to run for Senate?
Yes: 32.4% (11)
No: 32.4% (11)
Undecided: 35.3% (12)

That's 11 candidates already. Who will they be? Not Malashaan.

Issues

What do you think will be the most important issue discussed in the coming election?
The Modern Senate Act
The MSA.
Future of the Senate and reforms
legislative reform
Its a s3nat election there arent really overaching "issues"
MSA
I don't know
I don't know
Modern Senate Act.
Separation of powers
Elections Act
Modern Senate Act
Modern Senate Act
Modern Senate Act
Modern Senate Act
Modern Senate Act
Modern Senate Act
Elections maybe?
msa may be
Activity, improving legislation, etc.
IDK
IDK
Senate reform
Anumia should run for Senate
Experience
The Court
Elections Act rewrite
The MSA
N/A
Senate Reform
Senate Reform
Senate Reform
Senate Reform
The Legislation Arena
Not in any particular order. All responses included.
Count:
Modern Senate Act / Senate Reform 17
-- Other 12
Non-Response 6
Elections (possibly referring to MSA?) 3

It seems the Modern Senate Act's the topic for this election. More on that a few questions down.

What issue(s) would you like to see the next Senate address?
Electoral Reform
Electoral Reform
No ideas atm.
The MSA/elections
Unsure
Judicial System reform, More rights to CA and citizens
.
.
MSA, review of Elections Act, review of Judicature Act.
activity
Senate Reform, Separation of Powers
legislative reform
I don't know
The Constitution
All of them?
None
Fixing the Nominations procedure
Modern Senate Act
Modern Senate Act
Elections
Treaty law
IDK
Potato
All the ones in the task thread.
the judicial act
Elections Act rewrite
NA
Same as the above. [Respondent responded "Activity, improving legislation, etc." to the previous question.]
N/A
Regional officers (legislate already!), Judicature Act
EuroChat guidelines/areas of jurisdiction
The Jurisdiction Amendment
I don't thin issues is the correct term here, but overall we need a second law reforms, going over all existing laws and cleaning up years of bandaid fixes.
Senate Reform
Not in any particular order. All responses included.
These responses are pretty spread out (and I'm tired), so I won't be counting these. The common themes seem to be "reform," the MSA, and "elections." The Judicature Act is mentioned a few times.

Are you for or against the Modern Senate Act proposed by Senator Common-Sense Politics?
For: 52.9% (18)
Against: 47.1% (16)

Europeia is narrowly divided on this issue. As I watched the results trickle in, it fluctuated between 'For' having a slight lead, 'Against' having a slight lead, and the two being tied.

Let's play a game of correlations. I thought to myself "Hmm, there's probably a correlation between experience and support for this legislation." First I looked at support vs. join year, and there was no clear correlation (some new members supported and opposed it, some old members supported and opposed it). Then I looked at support vs. election to the Senate and I found something very interesting.

Elected Senators Supporting the MSA
Position# of Participants% of Elected Senators
In Favor425%
Against1275%

Non-Senators Supporting the MSA
Position# of Participants% of Non-Senators
In Favor1267%
Against633%


You heard it here first. The vast majority of participants in this poll that have been elected to the Senate are against the Modern Senate Act. Additionally, the majority of supporters of the MSA have never served on the Senate (although it's important to note that multiple current/retired Senators do support the MSA). Another interesting correlation: almost all of the Senators in favor of the MSA are veteran members (for the purposes of this article, joined before 2011). To assist your understanding, I put together a flowchart:
Fascinating, isn't it? In short: non-Senators and current/former Senators that joined before Constitution V support the MSA, but they make up a minority. Interpret this information as you'd like; I'm here to present the facts.

Which do you prefer?
"An efficient Senate focused on writing and updating legislation."
"A holistic Senate focused on monitoring the government and leading the region."
Efficient Senate: 67.6% (23)
Holistic Senate: 32.4% (11)

This question's looking into the two types of Senates we typically see: those focused on "leading the troops," and those focused on legislating. Think of it as a Senate under HEM's Speakership (holistic) vs. a Senate under Drecq's Speakership (efficient). As I expected, the public prefers the latter. Our last few Senate elections reflect that. Sorry, HEM. :p

Outgoing Senate

How satisfied are you with the outgoing Senate's performance?
Mean: 3.44
Mode: 3 (strong)

Count:
5 8.8% (3)
4 35.3% (12)
3 50% (17)
2 2.9% (1)
1 2.9% (1)

The consensus: this Senate was at a "Meh"dium level (I'm sorry, I couldn't resist)!

Puns aside, the data speaks for itself. The majority put this Senate at a 3, and only 2 ratings were below 3. The public wasn't disgusted by this Senate, but there's a lot of room for improvement.

What comments (if any) do you have for the outgoing Senators?
This question was optional.
You guys are good, but we need to shake things up a bit.

none

too few senators not discussing. became the mal and Drecq show again.

They've done a fine job. Just fine though.

They've gotten some stuff done, but some Senators have been much more active in that process than others. As a note about the above question about CSP's MSA - I don't support it in it's current form, but I think it's a good jumping off point to discuss some sort of reform.

Kaboom and Fortunado might be the worst senators in modern history.

Mixed bag.

The only people who should feel safe running again are Mal and Drecq. Nobody else.

Fort sucked as a Senator and Kaboom was a n00b.

csps term has been very disappointing for one of the more experienced senators he has failed to do anything really of note except release the msa at the tail end of his term to try to prop up a term that was the second worst of the whole senate

Be more proactive. Mal and Drecq can't do everything

Don't run for re-election the region needs competent senators, drecq and csp(and mal if he wasn't already not running) aren't included in this.

Enjoy retirement.
Not in any particular order. All responses included.

The consensus? Malashaan and Drecq shouldn't have to run the Senate. We need more proactive and capable Senators like Malashaan and Drecq. Who will step up to the plate?

Closing

What comments (if any) do you have about the upcoming election?
This question was optional.
none

I hope lots of people run and it's very exciting. There are some big changes to be discussed!

Pls Anumia

It should be a good one

I'm not running this term (because of Drecq), but maybe next term.

Should be a real barn-burner. The key is to continue to engage the multitude of candidates that lose.

Lengthen the voting hours.

better be good

Do Good, Kiddos!

Interested to see who runs and wages the best campaign.

Woot woot Europeia is cool

Sloosh for Senate Speaker

I hope to see a lot of candidates and a hard fought election that leads to a more legislatively active Senate. I also hope that Europeians, as a whole, will hold their Senators to a high standard of activity as there are likely a lot of promising individuals who will not earn seats and would be interested in running for a spot in a theoretical by-election.

Let's have a lot of candidates, okay?

Let's elect more than half a Senate this time.
Not in any particular order. All responses included.
Yet again we see a clear consensus. This race will be huge. With any luck, each vote will be a hard choice, and we'll have a well-fought election. Good luck to everyone running, and good luck Euro. We're all going to need it.

It certainly will be a barn-burner, respondent #23. ;)
Conclusion

I was originally going to write a long, emotional, clever speech here. Instead, I'll share this video.

Don't be the committee. Take action. Planning is important, but if we never act we're nowhere.

"All you have to do is walk out that door right now and stop them from nailing him!"

The giants are those that have their head in the clouds and their feet on the ground.

Seize the day, friends!
- Rand
 
Looks like I posted this in the Newsroom originally. HEM moved it to the public forum.
 
Thanks to the 18 who said they want me to run for the Senate, but sadly I do not currently intend to run for a seat. I would prefer to keep it to two branches, and both the Chief Justice position and the Grand Admiral position deserve my utmost attention.
 
Writinglegend said:
Thanks to the 18 who said they want me to run for the Senate, but sadly I do not currently intend to run for a seat. I would prefer to keep it to two branches, and both the Chief Justice position and the Grand Admiral position deserve my utmost attention.
Click to expand...
Separation of powers? :p
 
Thank you.
 
Re: "Who would you vote for if you had one vote?"

Why no love for MD? He got 1 more vote than CSP (and tied with NK) ... yet no reference? :(

Also, my thanks to the 16 people (HALF!) that want me to run, but that's totally not happening. The WA will keep me busy enough in the coming term - plus, regional legislation drafting just doesn't really interest me that much. :p

Seriously, though, my thanks for the polling and analysis. It was very interesting overall! :D
 
The only question I have is this: Why is someone not running because of me?
 
Well, maybe you scare them.
 
I sometimes offer constructive criticism but it's always constructive and I give it whether you've been here a month or since forever. So if anyone is scared of serving with me now they should know I don't plan on leaving and I'm unlikely to mellow. :p so best get it out if the way early. That way you can get right back to building a political career. And its not like people take my opinions that terribly serious.
 
Drecq said:
I sometimes offer constructive criticism but it's always constructive and I give it whether you've been here a month or since forever. So if anyone is scared of serving with me now they should know I don't plan on leaving and I'm unlikely to mellow. :p so best get it out if the way early. That way you can get right back to building a political career. And its not like people take my opinions that terribly serious.
Click to expand...
Getting punched in the face by Drecq is beneficial in the long run. Embrace the pain. :baghead:
 
I guess they'd rather *smash rocks* than serve with Drecq.
 
Drecq said:
I sometimes offer constructive criticism but it's always constructive and I give it whether you've been here a month or since forever. So if anyone is scared of serving with me now they should know I don't plan on leaving and I'm unlikely to mellow. :p so best get it out if the way early. That way you can get right back to building a political career. And its not like people take my opinions that terribly serious.
Click to expand...
Never meet your hero situation... or were you a bit heavy on the introductory fisting?
 
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