[size0]The following data is based on 24 respondents, or approximately 1/3 of the eligible voters list, and may be corrupted by persons who cannot vote in the election voting in the poll.[/size]
The Reality
In the reality section of the poll, things could hardly be closer. Sopo/Jusduckria and Crist Seymour/Ogastein both took 50% of the question "If the election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?," and 50% of the question "Which candidate do you feel has the best platform?". Sopo manages to edge out Crist Seymour with 54.2% (13 votes) on the question "Which candidate do you feel would make the best President?", but we're back to a split 50% of the vote on whether or Jusduckria or Ogastein would make the best VP.
If anything, there's a very, very slight edge for Sopo here, but nothing I would really read into.
The Hypothetical
In this section, I paired the two actual candidates with one extra hypothetical candidate three times, and then put all five (two actual, three hypothetical) candidates into a single question.
In the hypothetical involving Klatonia, Crist Seymour brings in the most votes, but it's important to note the percentages here. Crist Seymour brings in 45.8% (11 votes), Klatonia 25% (6 votes), and Sopo 29.2% (7 votes). While Seymour gets 11 votes, it wouldn't be enough to win on a first ballot, and it's actually the most he garners in any of the hypotheticals.
Seymour also "wins" the hypothetical ballot with Earth22 as well, but it's another pyrrhic victory. He manages 41.7% (10 votes), but Earth22 is nipping at his heels with 37.5% (9 votes), while Sopo draws up the rear with 20.8% (5 votes). Again, with the vote split three ways, Seymour appears to win the ballot, but if we keep our eyes on the consistency of his numbers, he's having a really hard time cracking the 50% barrier.
When NES is involved, the data takes an odd turn. In this hypothetical, Sopo "wins" the ballot on the split vote, with 45.8% (11 votes), while Seymour takes in 37.5% (9 votes), and NES pulls in 16.7% (4 votes). What's interesting is that Seymour's support levels have been fairly constant around 10 or 11 votes, and NES manages to drop him to 9, while Sopo picks up 11, his highest in the hypothetical section. This suggests to me that while probable Sopo voters might prefer Klatonia or Earth22 (explaining the splits in the first two), probable Seymour votes might prefer NES.
The last hypothetical question, with all options on the table, provides the most interesting split of all. Seymour dominates in raw numbers, with 37.5% (9 votes), second is Earth22, with 25% (6 votes), then Sopo with 16.7% (4 votes), Klatonia with 12.5% (3 votes), and NES bringing up the rear with 8.6% (2 votes). What's really interesting, though, is that if we follow my hypothetical belief that Klatonia, Earth22, and Sopo voters are likely to ally, and NES and Seymour voters are likely to ally, if we add them all together, Seymour + NES = 13 votes, which is more than 50% on this poll.
It's only a single vote over the top, which means that likely all this data suggests is that the race is going to be very close, but it does speak to the strength of Seymour's base. While Sopo's votes have been split very effectively by Earth22 and Klatonia, Seymour's have not dropped behind 9, which suggests that Seymour can be more sure of his base than Sopo if a surprise candidate enters the race (I'm not, though, don't even think about it). Seymour's major question, though, is "are those votes going to be enough"? Even with NES' votes mixed in, when NES wasn't a hypothetical candidate, the hypothetical Seymour vote never quite cleared 50%.
Comparative and Issues
In the comparative question to the previous term, there is largely a sense of optimism in the Europeian public. Klatonia, Earth22, and Seymour show a preponderance of votes in the end of the spectrum which says that a term with them would be "better" or "much better" than the previous term.
To fling some numbers at you, 5 votes (20.8%) said a term with Klatonia would be "much better" than this term, and 5 votes (20.8%) said a term with Klatonia would be "better" than this term, which compares favourably to 7 votes (29.2%) which said it would be "about the same", and a total of 7 votes (29.2%) on the side of "worse" (6 votes) or "much worse" (1 vote).
Earth22 had similar numbers to Klatonia, with a little more in the positive column (7 better, 5 much better, 8 about the same), and a little less in the negative (4 worse, 0 much worse). NES had the most "normal" distribution in the mathematical sense (3 much worse, 5 worse, 8 about the same, 6 better, 2 much better).
The two most interesting distributions are, of course, our two actual candidates. Seymour's is a tale of two extremes. His positive distributions matched Earth22's; 7 votes for better, and 5 votes for much better (a total of 12 being the best positive distribution). Where Seymour differs, however, is that while tied for the best positive distribution, he's also got the worst negative distribution. 4 votes for much worse, and 5 votes for worse, leaving only 3 votes for about the same. Seymour certainly appears to be a polarizing figure.
On the other end of the spectrum, Sopo seems to be almost comforting. While he garners only 2 votes for much better, he manages to pull in 8 votes for better, and 11 votes for about the same. He also had the lowest total negative distribution, with only 1 vote for worse and 2 votes for much worse.
On the issues question, it seemed that all issues would affect voting somewhat, but the attitude towards separation of powers was the least important (12 votes total between "not at all important" and "a little important"), and the Cabinet Selections, or the refusal to disclose them, was also not considered hugely important, with ten votes total for "not at all" and "a little" important. The candidate's platforms are likely the most important, with a total of 14 votes between "a great deal" and "my vote hinges on this issue", but candidates should not ignore any of these, as most of the categories had a preponderance of votes in the "a moderate amount" column.
Final Analysis
Will Seymour be able to convert enough of those who are concerned about his possible performance to overcome Sopo's less-exciting-but-familiar talents? It's an important question. As earlier hypothetical votes have suggested, while Seymour's base is very strong, it may not be enough all on its own, and it seems as though Seymour will have overcome this polarizing viewpoint to really get a strong win. Sopo will need to overcome public perceptions of his previous term to really knock this one out of the park, but both candidates are in easy striking distance of victory, and the polling leaves this election far, far too close to call.
The Reality
In the reality section of the poll, things could hardly be closer. Sopo/Jusduckria and Crist Seymour/Ogastein both took 50% of the question "If the election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?," and 50% of the question "Which candidate do you feel has the best platform?". Sopo manages to edge out Crist Seymour with 54.2% (13 votes) on the question "Which candidate do you feel would make the best President?", but we're back to a split 50% of the vote on whether or Jusduckria or Ogastein would make the best VP.
If anything, there's a very, very slight edge for Sopo here, but nothing I would really read into.
The Hypothetical
In this section, I paired the two actual candidates with one extra hypothetical candidate three times, and then put all five (two actual, three hypothetical) candidates into a single question.
In the hypothetical involving Klatonia, Crist Seymour brings in the most votes, but it's important to note the percentages here. Crist Seymour brings in 45.8% (11 votes), Klatonia 25% (6 votes), and Sopo 29.2% (7 votes). While Seymour gets 11 votes, it wouldn't be enough to win on a first ballot, and it's actually the most he garners in any of the hypotheticals.
Seymour also "wins" the hypothetical ballot with Earth22 as well, but it's another pyrrhic victory. He manages 41.7% (10 votes), but Earth22 is nipping at his heels with 37.5% (9 votes), while Sopo draws up the rear with 20.8% (5 votes). Again, with the vote split three ways, Seymour appears to win the ballot, but if we keep our eyes on the consistency of his numbers, he's having a really hard time cracking the 50% barrier.
When NES is involved, the data takes an odd turn. In this hypothetical, Sopo "wins" the ballot on the split vote, with 45.8% (11 votes), while Seymour takes in 37.5% (9 votes), and NES pulls in 16.7% (4 votes). What's interesting is that Seymour's support levels have been fairly constant around 10 or 11 votes, and NES manages to drop him to 9, while Sopo picks up 11, his highest in the hypothetical section. This suggests to me that while probable Sopo voters might prefer Klatonia or Earth22 (explaining the splits in the first two), probable Seymour votes might prefer NES.
The last hypothetical question, with all options on the table, provides the most interesting split of all. Seymour dominates in raw numbers, with 37.5% (9 votes), second is Earth22, with 25% (6 votes), then Sopo with 16.7% (4 votes), Klatonia with 12.5% (3 votes), and NES bringing up the rear with 8.6% (2 votes). What's really interesting, though, is that if we follow my hypothetical belief that Klatonia, Earth22, and Sopo voters are likely to ally, and NES and Seymour voters are likely to ally, if we add them all together, Seymour + NES = 13 votes, which is more than 50% on this poll.
It's only a single vote over the top, which means that likely all this data suggests is that the race is going to be very close, but it does speak to the strength of Seymour's base. While Sopo's votes have been split very effectively by Earth22 and Klatonia, Seymour's have not dropped behind 9, which suggests that Seymour can be more sure of his base than Sopo if a surprise candidate enters the race (I'm not, though, don't even think about it). Seymour's major question, though, is "are those votes going to be enough"? Even with NES' votes mixed in, when NES wasn't a hypothetical candidate, the hypothetical Seymour vote never quite cleared 50%.
Comparative and Issues
In the comparative question to the previous term, there is largely a sense of optimism in the Europeian public. Klatonia, Earth22, and Seymour show a preponderance of votes in the end of the spectrum which says that a term with them would be "better" or "much better" than the previous term.
To fling some numbers at you, 5 votes (20.8%) said a term with Klatonia would be "much better" than this term, and 5 votes (20.8%) said a term with Klatonia would be "better" than this term, which compares favourably to 7 votes (29.2%) which said it would be "about the same", and a total of 7 votes (29.2%) on the side of "worse" (6 votes) or "much worse" (1 vote).
Earth22 had similar numbers to Klatonia, with a little more in the positive column (7 better, 5 much better, 8 about the same), and a little less in the negative (4 worse, 0 much worse). NES had the most "normal" distribution in the mathematical sense (3 much worse, 5 worse, 8 about the same, 6 better, 2 much better).
The two most interesting distributions are, of course, our two actual candidates. Seymour's is a tale of two extremes. His positive distributions matched Earth22's; 7 votes for better, and 5 votes for much better (a total of 12 being the best positive distribution). Where Seymour differs, however, is that while tied for the best positive distribution, he's also got the worst negative distribution. 4 votes for much worse, and 5 votes for worse, leaving only 3 votes for about the same. Seymour certainly appears to be a polarizing figure.
On the other end of the spectrum, Sopo seems to be almost comforting. While he garners only 2 votes for much better, he manages to pull in 8 votes for better, and 11 votes for about the same. He also had the lowest total negative distribution, with only 1 vote for worse and 2 votes for much worse.
On the issues question, it seemed that all issues would affect voting somewhat, but the attitude towards separation of powers was the least important (12 votes total between "not at all important" and "a little important"), and the Cabinet Selections, or the refusal to disclose them, was also not considered hugely important, with ten votes total for "not at all" and "a little" important. The candidate's platforms are likely the most important, with a total of 14 votes between "a great deal" and "my vote hinges on this issue", but candidates should not ignore any of these, as most of the categories had a preponderance of votes in the "a moderate amount" column.
Final Analysis
Will Seymour be able to convert enough of those who are concerned about his possible performance to overcome Sopo's less-exciting-but-familiar talents? It's an important question. As earlier hypothetical votes have suggested, while Seymour's base is very strong, it may not be enough all on its own, and it seems as though Seymour will have overcome this polarizing viewpoint to really get a strong win. Sopo will need to overcome public perceptions of his previous term to really knock this one out of the park, but both candidates are in easy striking distance of victory, and the polling leaves this election far, far too close to call.
