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Written by HEM Tiberius
Based on a survey sample of 19 Europeian voters, ENN has characterized the race as "leaning" toward Swakistek based on their responses to several polling questions. ENN's poll shows a less competitive race than the SuperNova survey, but the race is still up in the air.
State of the Region
A resounding majority of Europeians feel the last Presidential term has been "Good", with 74% of those surveyed selecting this option. When using the percentages offered by each qualitative description Vinage finishes the term with a strong 74.73% approval rating. Even compared to the high rankings of recent Presidential terms, Vinage is leaving office as a very popular chief of state.
The region overwhelming believes the Senate is dysfunctional, with 68% of those surveyed saying that the Senate has not been effective. The region remains divided on whether legislature reform is the answer though, with only 42% thinking that's the answer.
Presidential Race
"Swakistek is starting with a corp of very dedicated followers," ENN special correspondent Jay Leno says, "53% of those surveyed strongly support Swakistek. This is why even early on, we know Apollo has to play catch up."
Apollo is starting with (including learners) 32% of those surveyed, while Swakistek is starting with 64%. The rest are undecided.
"The polling numbers here are an underperformance by Apollo," Paul Robin Krugman says, "However Apollo should take solace in our competitors polls, and in how "strong" Swakistek's supporters really are. When you throw Vinage into the mix, half of Swakistek's support bolts to the incumbent."
That's not to say though, they will bolt for Apollo.
If President Vinage were running for re-election he would start in the lead with 42% of the vote. Swakistek would follow with a much reduced 32% and Apollo would be a third with 21%.
Throwing PASD in the race though, did little to shake things up.
"PASD would steal one or two of Swakistek's voters, but would mostly be splitting Apollo's base." former UK Prime Minister John Major says, "It would leave Swakistek with a decent majority and Apollo and PASD with tiny margins in opposition."
When looking at future Presidential contenders, Alexander and Elias Greyjoy receive 26% and 32% of the vote respectively in an contest between themselves and Senator Drecq. 26% of Europeia would be undecided in such a contest, and only 5% would be supporting Senator Drecq.
"The race is looking competitive," Krugman adds, "Apollo is trying to cobble a coalition together, and I think he is slowly becoming a far more effective candidate than many anticipated. He's going to have to start actively changing some minds though."
Polls usually only sample up to 2/3 of those who eventually vote on election day, meaning that the "phantom" vote might prove to be relevant this election.
"The phantoms would probably tend to lean more toward Swakistek," Jay Leno comments, "But it's about the campaign now."
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