89th Senate End-of-term Approval Poll & 90th General Election Analysis
Clear frontrunners in upcoming General election, but anyone can still win
Written by Forilian and JayDee
Edited by Kuramia and Gem
Editor's Note: This poll was opened before GraVandius dropped out and Common-Sense Politics (CSP) entered the race respectively.
The Europeian Broadcasting Corporation ran a joint end-of-term approval poll on the 89th (current) Senate of Europeia and a Senate election poll for the upcoming General election from July 12 to 13. There were 29 respondents, an increase of five from the midterm poll conducted by the EBC, and a decrease of 7 from the Smokin' Hot poll.
Senate Overall - Approval: 58.6%/Net Approval: +41.4%
The Senate overall received marginal gains in approval from the midterm poll, with an 8.6% increase. Interestingly, many respondents were neutral overall on the state of the Senate, giving it a relatively high net approval rating of +41.4%. Most comments were positive, with many noting that there was improvement in the second half of the term.
I've recently joined so Idk much
A lot of legislation passed, but things seemed very chaotic with McEntire going off on his own a lot and the body as a whole not really seeming to have a direction for a lot of the term.
A lot better than midterm
Very happy with how the senate turned out this term - lots of activity, and a decent (if a tad dull) report.
Good term after the halfway mark, was a bit disappointing at the beginning, but I'm glad it shaped up well.
A lot of legislation passed, but things seemed very chaotic with McEntire going off on his own a lot and the body as a whole not really seeming to have a direction for a lot of the term.
A lot better than midterm
Very happy with how the senate turned out this term - lots of activity, and a decent (if a tad dull) report.
Good term after the halfway mark, was a bit disappointing at the beginning, but I'm glad it shaped up well.
Speaker Lime - Approval: 41.3%/Net Approval: +10.3%
Senate Speaker Lime also saw a slight change in his approval ratings from the midterm, though in the other direction -- an 8.7% drop in approval sees him nonetheless remain on the positive side, with a net approval rating of +10.3%. Comments were mixed for the speaker, with some criticising him for his perceived lack of action to "rein in" Senators, while others praised his ability to "[keep] things mostly active and going."
Same here
Could have controlled the chaos a little better, but not a *bad* term.
Didn't reign in inappropriate senator behavior during oversight process or provide defense of senate institutions
Kept things mostly active and going
I think there were opportunities when a single Senator struck out on his own for Lime to take strong steps as Speaker to rein them in and present a more united front but did not do so.
He could have stood up and ordered decorum and given direction and leadership at various points where it was warranted. Not just for the whole Madjack ridiculousness that got way out of hand.
lime was not up to the task of being the speaker during this term, esp with regard to the oversight nonsense
Lime did a decent job at holding the senate together, but it does irk me a bit that they declared a pseudo-LoA rather than going all in and appointing a substitute. It held things up quite a bit.
Could have controlled the chaos a little better, but not a *bad* term.
Didn't reign in inappropriate senator behavior during oversight process or provide defense of senate institutions
Kept things mostly active and going
I think there were opportunities when a single Senator struck out on his own for Lime to take strong steps as Speaker to rein them in and present a more united front but did not do so.
He could have stood up and ordered decorum and given direction and leadership at various points where it was warranted. Not just for the whole Madjack ridiculousness that got way out of hand.
lime was not up to the task of being the speaker during this term, esp with regard to the oversight nonsense
Lime did a decent job at holding the senate together, but it does irk me a bit that they declared a pseudo-LoA rather than going all in and appointing a substitute. It held things up quite a bit.
Senator Gem - Approval: 82.8%/Net Approval: +79.4%
With an approval rating of 82.8% and a net approval of 79.4%, with only one respondent expressing disapproval, Gem is by far the most popular Senator of the 89th Senate. This also marks a ~10% increase in approval from the Smokin' Poll, making Gem one of two Senators to have improved their approval ratings from the midterm. Comments were overwhelmingly positive, with Gem being praised for his high activity levels, involvement in various Senate issues, as well as his role in coordinating the recent Senate report on the Executive's handling of the MadJack affair. With overwhelming approval, Gem's re-election campaign will be very happy going into election day.
Same here X2
Involved on most issues.
What more can I say? Gem's had an awesome term - and we have them to thank for the report even existing.
Very happy with Gem this term! Super active and engaged, and definitely seemed the rational level-headed one in this senate, which was a pleasant surprise.
Involved on most issues.
What more can I say? Gem's had an awesome term - and we have them to thank for the report even existing.
Very happy with Gem this term! Super active and engaged, and definitely seemed the rational level-headed one in this senate, which was a pleasant surprise.
Senator JayDee - Approval: 65.5%/Net Approval: +58.6%
Continuing the trend of improving approval ratings, Senator JayDee climbed over 15% in approval from the Smokin' Poll, and nearly 25% from the midterm poll. Comments on the Senator also became markedly more positive from the midterm poll, with kudos over his prolific drafting of legislation. In fact, one commenter even wrote that “if you separated the first and last half of his term, it would be his worst and best term."
Same here X3
Involved on most issues.
If you separated the first and last half of his term, it would be his worst and best term
He threw a lot of spaghetti at the wall this term
Aside from the usual standoffishness, JayDee put out a flurry of solid legislation this term, which merits some praise.
Involved on most issues.
If you separated the first and last half of his term, it would be his worst and best term
He threw a lot of spaghetti at the wall this term
Aside from the usual standoffishness, JayDee put out a flurry of solid legislation this term, which merits some praise.
Senator Prim - Approval: 68.3%/Net Approval: +61.4%
Prim sees a slight drop in his approval ratings from the midterm, with a 6.7% drop in approval and a 1.1% drop in net approval; Prim's approval numbers, however, are around the same as in the Smokin' Poll, and also quite similar to those of his colleague, Senator JayDee. Comments were somewhat mixed, with Prim simultaneously lauded as being "the only adult in the Senate at times" to being criticised for "being too protective of the Executive" and "continuing his flame war with Mc[Entire]."
Same here X4
Involved on most issues.
Seems too protective of the executive at times
He’s the only adult in the Senate at times
Seemingly the only person with any backbone in the entire Senate.
I can't help but be a bit critical of Prim this term. They weren't all too active for most of the term, and when they were active, it seemed to be more about striking down other senators' ideas, or continuing their flame war with Mc.
Involved on most issues.
Seems too protective of the executive at times
He’s the only adult in the Senate at times
Seemingly the only person with any backbone in the entire Senate.
I can't help but be a bit critical of Prim this term. They weren't all too active for most of the term, and when they were active, it seemed to be more about striking down other senators' ideas, or continuing their flame war with Mc.
Senator McEntire - Approval Rating: 20.7%/Net Approval: -44.8%
McEntire's approval ratings remain the lowest amongst his colleagues in this poll, seeing an almost 30% drop from the EBC midterm poll, though a much smaller 1.5% drop from the Smokin' Poll results. Notably, only two respondents strongly approved of his term, which is a large drop from both the midterm and Smokin' polls. Comments were almost unanimously negative, with criticisms about the Senator's perceived "aggressive" and "unstatesmanlike" behaviour.
Same here X5
While McEntire's efforts may have come from a good place, his behavior was unstatesmanlike and seemed to assume someone, actually lots of people, were lying to him. It seemed more like a crusade than an actual attempt to conduct oversight. More troubling, instead of taking a step back to reflect, he constantly seemed to double down and be proud of his actions, presenting them as virtuous. From where I stand they mostly looked reckless.
Stepped on every rake and was downright mean while doing it. Unwilling to work to build consensus on oversight, and reinventing history about own actions in campaign thread.
Too critical of the executive at times
Clearly searching for nonexistent wrongdoing to advance his political career, without regard to the negative consequences of his actions on foreign affairs and on the executive's ability to govern
too aggressive
Stop shoveling your hole and beating a dead horse please.
Someone needs to just sit down with Mac and tell them to stop. I was happy when they (allegedly) agreed to compromise, but now they're right back in the report thread spouting nonsense.
I voted for Mc in the last election, and I voted against their recall, but I couldn't be more disappointed with how they took that mandate. Gem says they were open to compromise, and that's fantastic, but now they're back picking fights again, and I'm done with that.
awful oversight, enough said
While McEntire's efforts may have come from a good place, his behavior was unstatesmanlike and seemed to assume someone, actually lots of people, were lying to him. It seemed more like a crusade than an actual attempt to conduct oversight. More troubling, instead of taking a step back to reflect, he constantly seemed to double down and be proud of his actions, presenting them as virtuous. From where I stand they mostly looked reckless.
Stepped on every rake and was downright mean while doing it. Unwilling to work to build consensus on oversight, and reinventing history about own actions in campaign thread.
Too critical of the executive at times
Clearly searching for nonexistent wrongdoing to advance his political career, without regard to the negative consequences of his actions on foreign affairs and on the executive's ability to govern
too aggressive
Stop shoveling your hole and beating a dead horse please.
Someone needs to just sit down with Mac and tell them to stop. I was happy when they (allegedly) agreed to compromise, but now they're right back in the report thread spouting nonsense.
I voted for Mc in the last election, and I voted against their recall, but I couldn't be more disappointed with how they took that mandate. Gem says they were open to compromise, and that's fantastic, but now they're back picking fights again, and I'm done with that.
awful oversight, enough said
Vast Majority Content with Field of Candidates in Election
93.1% of respondents were content with the field of candidates in the upcoming General, with 12 currently standing for election as of press time. Other names put forward include Rand, HEM, Kuramia, and CSP (who stood for election after the poll opened).
Rand, CSP, SkyGreen
none
We are good with the amount of candidates we already have
Aexnidaral, Deepest House, HEM, Kazaman, Kuramia, Seva
Maowi, Kazaman, Rand
Phoenix
HEM, Calvin, Sopo, Kuramia
I want to see Cove back in the senate.
none
We are good with the amount of candidates we already have
Aexnidaral, Deepest House, HEM, Kazaman, Kuramia, Seva
Maowi, Kazaman, Rand
Phoenix
HEM, Calvin, Sopo, Kuramia
I want to see Cove back in the senate.
none
Oversight is going to be an exciting topic
I hope that more candidates will be GOTVing
Oversight is going to be an exciting topic
I hope that more candidates will be GOTVing
Frontier security
Welfare
Stopping the degradation of the Senate as an institution that seems to be a part of the platform of at least McEntire.
Accountability for behavior, consensus building in oversight
Admin descretion
I'm looking for senators who will be respectful, collaborative, and productive (in oversight and in general), even when they are not about to face an election
Stance on oversight
Oversight
senate oversight reform
Being open to discussion. Having a big flame war might be good for engagement, but it's horrible for the senate as a whole.
Welfare
Stopping the degradation of the Senate as an institution that seems to be a part of the platform of at least McEntire.
Accountability for behavior, consensus building in oversight
Admin descretion
I'm looking for senators who will be respectful, collaborative, and productive (in oversight and in general), even when they are not about to face an election
Stance on oversight
Oversight
senate oversight reform
Being open to discussion. Having a big flame war might be good for engagement, but it's horrible for the senate as a whole.
Voting Intentions
Here, some major groupings of candidates can be observed. The first group are the strongest candidates, with overwhelming support and facing likely victory in the election. These four candidates are, in decreasing order of support: Senator Gem (who received over 85% support amongst respondents), Attorney General Lloenflys, Deputy Peoples' Assembly Chair Elio Somerset, and Senator, Bar Association Chair, and Regional Security Council Member Prim. This group is, notably, a mix between more grizzled legislative veterans and newcomers, including Senate newcomer Elio Somerset, who faces extremely high levels of support in their first ever Senate campaign.
The second group of candidates are those with more moderate levels of support, hovering around 40%. Though they may have less of a chance at winning than the first group, their campaigns are by no means over, as these candidates still have a strong base of support from which to expand. This second list includes Martyn Kiryu, ICH, Ellenburg, and GraVandius (who has since dropped out of the race).
Finally, the third group of candidates have below 30% support -- though should still not be ruled out. This group most notably includes incumbent Senator McEntire, who ranks by far the lowest amongst the incumbent Senators seeking re-election with only around 21% support. Others in this group include Tim Wright, a newcomer who has drawn controversy to his campaign after purportedly using artificial intelligence software ChatGPT to generate answers for his Senate interview.
The most popular seat count amongst respondents by far was 7 seats, which would elect most of the first and second group of candidates if poll numbers were perfectly reflective of the real election results. Nonetheless, with solid campaigning and get-out-the-vote efforts, any candidate can still pull ahead!
Oversight
Level of Oversight
A strong majority of the region appeared to agree that the Senate should maintain a measured level of oversight over the executive. Though where the line is drawn between "measured" and "robust" oversight probably comes down to personal preference, we can take from the results that there is a desire for the Senate to take a role in oversight, if not a truly strong one. It is likely the line between measured and robust will be a key point of debate and contention this term, with multiple Senators running on a platform of oversight and the topic occupying much of the Candidate Interview Series.
Weight of Oversight
Executive Deference wins the day; most of Europeia would prefer a Senate that falls on the more relaxed and negligent side than one that is too heavy-handed and obstructive. Senator McEntire's conduct came under heavy scrutiny from many in the region, and may have had a hand in pushing some of the region to vote for an executive that is generally free to enact its policies over a senate that is free to police them. However, a significant percent of the region still indicated preference for Senate oversight over Executive deference, so this is hardly a strong mandate for the executive to do as they please. It will be up to the 90th Senate to come to a compromise between these two camps and tackle the impossible challenge that proper oversight has proven itself to be.
Senate Report Satisfaction
Despite public criticism as being too "bland" and "disappointing," regional sentiment generally favors the Senate's report. With 58.6% expressing some level of satisfaction to 20.7% dissatisfied, the report enjoys strong support from the region for its informative yet concise provisions. The main issue taken up by its naysayers would largely be the nature of reports in general, with the claim that they are too "investigatorial" in nature and lend themselves to a problematic road with the Senate turning into a tribunal. Others simply believed reports in general were unnecessary or that the Senate should've done more with the report that left them wanting.[/spoiler]
