On Monday, The Panda's Pen conducted a panel to discuss the Senate race, and its candidates. The panel consisted of President Malashaan, Vice President Mousebumples, and Minister Calvin Coolidge. If the members I just announced are a little overwhelming, I'll give you a minute to gather yourself before moving on.
Are you good? Okay, great. Prepare yourself for what some have called, "The Most Amazing Panel to Ever be Assembled". Don't ask who is calling it that, just take my word for it. Keep in mind this is before the announcement of Legendofpie's standing, and other campaign developments after Monday. Let us now commence with what has previously been found only in your "Wildest Dreams": The November Senate Panel.
Calvin Coolidge: First: Drecq
Mousebumples: I figure drecq is a lock to get re-elected as he's a very good senator. given that he's against both committees and senate aides, i'd wonder if he's likely to be re-elected as senate speaker, but that's another discussion for after we know the make up of the next senate. If we have 7 senators, and the pro-committee or pro-aide sides "win" a majority of seats, i could see a speaker who is more supportive of those concepts perhaps being elected speaker. However, he is a solid legislator, in my view, with a deep knowledge of our legal system and i'm sure he'll serve europeia well as a senator in the coming term
Calvin Coolidge: I think Drecq is the front-runner of front-runners in terms of getting elected. He blew away the competiton in the EBC approval poll. In the past election, voters showed that even if he has some controversial views, they know he'll perform well as a legislator.
Mousebumples: do you think his controversial views in any way damage his support for a potential second-consecutive (and about thirtieth cumulative
) speakership? Or is that something that we "outsiders" care about more than senators do?
Calvin Coolidge: It will be interesting to see how the committee argument comes into play once the dust settles and we have our Senate decided. I don't think committees will cost Drecq the speakership, but it may cost him some popularity points if he shuts them down against the majority of Senators' wishes.
Malashaan: I concur. The speakership is typically an administrative role relating to smooth running of the Senate, rather than endowing the holder with additional power. The law certainly would enable the Speaker to exert substantive influence, but generally that has not happened, and Drecq does not view the position that way. I think the Senate will select him as Speaker because of his proven excellence in the role. If the majority want to expand the senate aides and committee program, I think they will have confidence that we will not block them from doing so, so it will not significantly factor into their decision.
Mousebumples: Do you think drecq's lack of support for the aide system will in any way impact attempts by some senate candidates to "officialize" the system?
Calvin Coolidge: Despite his views against the program, it will continue, and even if it is not "official" from the Senate, there are always other options.
Mousebumples: Fair enough.
Calvin Coolidge: Second: Notolecta
Mousebumples: I'd view his chances of being elected as being a Toss-Up - depending in part on how many more people (if any) run, and what the final call is on senate seats. Right now, we have 10 candidates for (probably) 7 seats, but neither number is written in stone at this point
Calvin Coolidge: I think his chances will really depend on how much weight people put on his term as CA Chair, as well.
Mousebumples: Noto has a good understanding of the law, and he's known for doing the grunt work that needs doing. However, he's also very controversial, and - as you stated - his recent terms as CA Chair haven't been pinnacles of activity, really. Whether that is the fault of the Chair of the CA membership itself is arguable, but the relative inactivity does reflect on him as the Chair, to at least some extent.
Calvin Coolidge: Noto has a long history of legislative work in Europeia, but he's never been one of the popular citizens. He even lost out in the last election to a candidate many percieved as a "joke".
Mousebumples: He's served as a senator in the past (twice, i think?), but i know he's also failed to be elected a time or two as well. i could see him winning ... or see him finishing outside the top vote getters.
Calvin Coolidge: Which really reflects on his inability to rally voters behind him when the chips are on the line. He did extraordinarily well in his two CA Chair elections, but he never really went against a pool of candidates like what he faces here in this, or the previous, election.
Malashaan: Noto will work hard and do a fine job if elected. His problem in obtaining votes is entirely down to his directness, which rubs some people the wrong way. I have no doubt he is more than capable to serve - the uncertainty around whether he will be elected is a case-study in how popularity unrelated to qualifications can play a significant role.
Mousebumples: Well, Noto wasn't the only one to lose out to a candidate who was considered to be a "joke." cordova - another candidate this term - is another who was at times among the top vote getters in the last election before not quite making the cut. it's possible that if the last half-dozen "joke" candidates hadn't stood both or either of them could have won seats in the Senate.
Calvin Coolidge: That's true, but many thought Noto's election was gaurenteed until he lost.
Mousebumples: Well, that's backwards
Calvin Coolidge: Such is politics.
Mousebumples: The last election was an interesting exercise in watching the variability of election returns. At one time, both cordova and noto had seats assured and anumia and rachel were sitting outside the senate, i think. And there were a number of other changes and variations throughout that 24 hour voting period that made it a must see entertainment event.
Calvin Coolidge: That's a very valid point. Hopefully, this elections brings just as much excitement to the region.
Calvin Coolidge: Third: Anumia
Mousebumples: He doesn't have a platform yet. And while I know he'd probably tell me that he's been around long enough that he doesn't need them, I know I'm not the only Europeian to refuse to vote for anyone who doesn't bother to post a platform. So I'd categorize him as "probably."
Calvin Coolidge: I often question if Anumia takes these elections seriously, and judging by his slow start last election, other voters do, too. As you mentioned, his lack of platform is telling, and only hurts his chances as we get closer to election day.
Mousebumples: He has less to balance in euro right now - as he's MoFA but doesn't currently sit on the court. while i know both drecq and anumia hae expressed a willingness to participate in all 3 branches of government before, i think both europeia (and the individual themselves) is best served by limiting their participation to one or two branches rather than trying to achieve such a trifecta. However, anumia's contributions to the criminal code were quite useful, i think, down the stretch, and i feel that he has a lot to offer this region as a senator. still, all the same, if there's no platform, i have to ask how much he really wants to be elected.
Calvin Coolidge: He did very well in the EBC approval poll, I feel it is worth mentioning. He's not bad as what he does, it is just tough to tell what he stands for at times.
Malashaan: In many ways, Anumia is the opposite of Noto. His popularity and reputation almost ensures he will be elected. That is not to say his reputation is not deserved, he has served many fine terms in numerous positions and has proven himself to be a highly capable legislator.
Calvin Coolidge: Fourth: Writinglegend
Mousebumples: I'd probably categorize WL as a lock. he's still a relative novice in the senate, but i think he's grown a lot over his first term in the senate. he has a lot to offer the region in this role, and he has shown his ability to balance his MinCult job and his Senate position over the past few weeks.
Calvin Coolidge: I think he's got a pretty good chance of getting reelected, after a strong first term. In the EBC poll, he even tied Drecq's approval rating.
Malashaan: WL is a lock. He is hard working and a proven legislator, but still has the excitement factor that comes with being a newcomer with ideas.
Mousebumples: He's got ideas - even if some don't necessarily want to institute those ideas sometimes - and i think the region is better off for having the discussions he's instigated with his legislative proposals than if we had not had the discussions in the first place.
Calvin Coolidge: His activity is very impressive, and he has a lot of ideas on issues like the Aide program, that move the region forward. If the committee issue does decide the speakership next term, he might be a candidate to watch for.
Mousebumples: Perhaps. I think he could work as a speaker, but I'd expect (depending on the composition of the next senate), a senator with more than one term under their belt might be preferred as speaker, if only because they'd be more familiar with all of the standards and procedures and such. But all of that stuff tends to confuse me, so i may not be a good "test case" for that sort of concept.
Calvin Coolidge: Well, sure, another candidate with more experience might be preferred, but the established candidates seem to be on the opposite side of the issue.
Mousebumples: Maybe. we don't really know where anumia stands
Calvin Coolidge: Ha. True.
Mousebumples: Reason #183 Why Platforms Are Good Things
Malashaan: I think WL would be a good speaker in future, but given the amount of time he puts into Culture, I think the next term is not the right time for him.
Calvin Coolidge: Fifth: Sopo
Mousebumples: I think he's a Toss-Up as well, in large part because of activity concerns.
Calvin Coolidge: Whenver Sopo runs for something, my first question is always the activity, as well.
Mousebumples: He's got a great understanding of the legislature and law; however, the last time he was elected to senate, he ended up resigning due to a lack of activity halfway through the term.
Malashaan: The effect of activity concerns on elections is very hard to predict. Sometimes it seems like voters place a great deal of importance in it, but at other times, people known to have low activity levels are handily elected. If Sopo does a good job in convincing voters that his policy positions are good, the activity concern should not hurt too much.
Calvin Coolidge: I think he does have a lot of progressive ideas, too, that I would like to see implemented, especially by someone of his legislative pedigree.
Mousebumples: Also, he's the Deputy CA Chair, and as discussed previously, there hasn't been tremendous activity there as of late, which needs to reflect on him in part due to his leadership position within that body. The question is, is half of a term of sopo make it worth electing him? byelections are not necessarily a bad thing, if needed, and they can sometimes add some new blood and vibrancy to the senate. I'm leaning yes, and I do applaud him for being one of 6 candidates with platforms
Calvin Coolidge: That's true. Even his private media organization, which many praised at its inception, has faltered. I would be willing to say that if there are seven seats, Sopo could make a convincing play for seat six or seven.
Mousebumples: If we have confidence that sopo can be active, he could challenge for the speakership if the pro-committee side wins more seats this time around
Calvin Coolidge: If they are willing to take the risk of an inactive Speaker. I'm not so sure the Senate is willing to go that far, but that may just be me.
Mousebumples: Yeah, but almost anyone _could_ go inactive. If you're voting for the "senator least likely to go inactive" is that necessarily ensuring the best leadership for the senate as a whole?
Calvin Coolidge: Good point, I just think it is something to consider.
Mousebumples: Granted, when HEM was speaker, his activity dropped off near the end of the term (as did that of his deputy), which definitely soured the activity and actions of that senate's progress
Calvin Coolidge: That's what I was thinking of, yes.
Calvin Coolidge: Sixth: Kraketopia
Mousebumples: I think kraken's a LOCK. He was a solid senator before being elected to the executive, and i think his executive experience will serve him well in the senate. (of course, both anumia and sopo have also served as president of europeia, so he's not alone with that credential)
Calvin Coolidge: I agree, as the last President, he brings a lot to the table, in addition to his Senate terms, etc. He has put out the most in-depth anti-committee platform out of all the candidates, however. I'm not sure if that will hurt his chances, though, considering what we've stated.
Malashaan: Kraketopia has shown himself to be capable in multiple roles. I can't imagine that his record will not gather him enough votes to be elected, regardless of his position on any given issue.
Mousebumples: Well, the EBC poll showed that citizens are generally divided on the committees
and i'm not sure how many citizens are "single issue voters" that they won't vote for him JUST because he doesn't like committees.
Calvin Coolidge: That's true, I didn't say there were many, but it will be interesting to see.
Mousebumples: Yeah, fair enough.
Calvin Coolidge: Honestly, I don't see it as a problem at all for him, but I'm not sure how strongly this issue will impact the election.
Mousebumples: Agreed
Malashaan: I also agree. Even if voters disagree with him on committees, I think most will trust him to consider the issue fairly and respect the vote of the majority should they opt to expand the committee structure.
Calvin Coolidge: Seventh: Shin
Mousebumples: I was going to say long-shot, but given that he's posted what will be a platform thread, that may be upgraded to toss-up. He wasn't terribly active, in the eyes of many, during his last senate term. he stated that his taciturn nature was due to the fact that he didn't see much point in adding a simple "Agreed" comment, which may be quite true. however, i know there are some outspoken europeians that are likely to take him to task for that previous behavior. his responses to those questions, and where he stands on this election's issues, will likely determine his electability.
Calvin Coolidge: As he has yet to release a platform, I'm unsure his positions, and I'll have to look at his past performances. He's been out of politics for a while, and his last stint as MinComm was widely panned. His Senate terms weren't too hot either. I think his personality, and his general appearance on the forums may be enough to sway some voters. I would agree it will be a close call to see if he gets elected.
After his platform was released with more details:
Mousebumples: i like that he pandered to me by including a packers GIF - that's like quoting taylor swift for you. We need more information, still, notably about the aide program, on which he hasn't offered that much insight yet, but i think he responses show that he's taking his candidacy seriously
Calvin Coolidge: I agree, this run is definitely not the run we saw last time, but I don't think he has earned enough of the voters' passion to be all that confident moving forward.
Malashaan: Shin is undoubtedly smart and has the capacity to be a good Senator, but I concur with the two of you - I'm not convinced that he has done enough to give the voters confidence that this is his time. If he is active through the coming term, I think he will have a very good chance next time around should he choose to run again.
Calvin Coolidge: Eighth: Cordova I
Mousebumples: He's another candidate that doesn't have a platform yet. without a platform, i suspect he'll fall into the LONG SHOT category, but with a platform, that could change. he's an old name in europeian politics, and he has quite a bit of experience in the senate and executive over the years. he would offer a historical perspective towards europeian law that most candidates cannot match.
Calvin Coolidge: His candidacy kind of came out of nowhere. He resigned from the CA a while ago, and that was right after the last election, if I recall. Since then, I don't know that I've heard from him at all. I don't see voters looking past that and electing him.
Mousebumples: He was also very cordial and classy in his loss in the last election, and that likely reflected positively upon him among the electorate. of course, if he doesn't post a platform, i'm not sure how seriously his candidacy will be taken, especially since he hasn't been terribly vocal or active within the parts of europeia that i frequent.
Calvin Coolidge: That's true, his experience and graceful exit may work in his favor, but I still think his lack of activity is insurmountable.
Malashaan: He failed to be elected last time due to a recent return from inactivity, and I don't see much evidence that he has done enough in the last few months to change that result. That said, depending on the number of seats, he may squeak in - there were a lot of candidates last time.
Mousebumples: If there are 7 seats, i could see him possibly challenging for that 7th seat. and if there are more seats, that throws a lot of this "projections" into jeopardy and can make things more difficult to predict. Honestly, some of the more controversial candidates might find themselves less likely to win a seat if there are more seats (and votes!) available
Calvin Coolidge: As always, the number of seats throws a curve at the whole prediction process, but I'm going off my assumption (which could very well be wrong).
Mousebumples: I think the top 4 or 5 candidates are pretty well established, but "negatives" (and those who won't vote for Candidate-A for any reason) can restrict the number of votes available to a given candidate enough to adversely impact their chances. Well, i think 7 was a safe assumption, until we got another candidate standing ... and perhaps more to come yet
Calvin Coolidge: Ninth: Angelus
Mousebumples: I can't speak for others, but i think a large senate, with a number of established senators, is a great opportunity for a newcomer (such as angelus, or another newcomer) to get their feet wet. Even if he does propose a Separation of Powers Act, i doubt anything will pass, and i admire his enthusiasm and willingness to get involved.
Calvin Coolidge: I would say this is a toss-up. He doesn't have a lot of experience in the region, nor has he really made a huge mark in the CA. However, he is one of a very small number to propose legislation in there this term, and I think that helps him out. Not to mention his Defense Director cred.
Malashaan: Angelus is certainly very new, but he did a great job as Director of Zombie Defense and that gained him significant exposure. I think he has a good chance of being elected this time and I look forward to seeing how he performs. It's always good to have a newcomer in the Senate to provide that perspective in debates. The key for Angelus if elected is to not be intimidated by his more experienced colleagues.
Mousebumples: I expect at least one relative newcomer will be in the senate next term - although i think only angelus and applebania are running from that crowd right now.
Calvin Coolidge: I agree. If only one newcomer makes it in, I could easily see Angelus winning that match-up.
Mousebumples: I'd agree with your tossup analysis, sincei i'm sure not everyone agrees with my preference of mixing old and new voices in the senate. even if newcomer-proposed legislation doesn't get signed into law, i think they have an important voice in the senate that we don't want to restrict or ignore.
Calvin Coolidge: He even posted a platform, which is a plus.
Mousebumples: Of course, applebania will hopefully (*fingers crossed*) post a platform to introduce himself more to europeia, which could change my calculus. however, as the only newcomer with a platform, i'd probably shade angelus as slightly more likely than a toss-up, but i'm not confident enough to move him to the "likely" category.
Calvin Coolidge: Right.
Calvin Coolidge: Tenth: Applebania
Mousebumples: Well, he doesn't seem to think much of his own chances, and it's possible that could turn into a self-fulfilled prophecy. hopefully, he'll post up a platform and really give himself a shot at winning a senate seat. however, at this moment, i'd probably categorize him as LONG SHOT.
Calvin Coolidge: I really don't think the region knows enough about him for him to get a lot of votes, although he did only stand earlier today, so he hasn't had a lot of time to gather his platform yet.
Malashaan: Yeah. I can see this election coming down to a choice between Angelus and Applebania, and I think the exposure Angelus gained in the zombie event will likely push him over the edge.
Mousebumples: Understandable. However, applebania may be new to europeia, but he does have some experience abroad. I'm not 100% sure on the details, but he may have substantial other-regional legislative experience to offer, which could make his perspective an interesting one to include. However, that's hypothetical, so i'm not willing to categorize him as anything other than a LONG SHOT until i get a look at a theoretical platform.
Calvin Coolidge: If that is the case, that will be an interesting test of how much foreign expereince really matters in elections like this.
Mousebumples: Yeah, agreed. i'm looking forward to learning more details about his other experiences and seeing how that impacts the race.
Calvin Coolidge: Eleventh: Seven Deaths
Mousebumples: Well, he's got a platform, which is a plus. However, the platform is not all that serious as of yet, but hopefully some serious questions will be asked (and, yes, i do plan to do some of that), which will give a better ideas as to how serious he is about being a senator and what sort of time he has.
Calvin Coolidge: I can't really give him my vote unless he clarifies his views on some issues, so I have to give his chances a long-shot until I get some information.
Malashaan: I expect SD's campaign to go the same way as Cordova's last term - he has been absent for too long and hasn't done enough to re-intrioduce himself to win this term. That said, he is highly capable and I hope he does start spending more time in Euuropeia, regardless of the result of this election.
Mousebumples: As i understand it, he was rather unimpressive as the president of euro a year or so ago because his activity in another region limited his free time to act on euro's behalf. i wasn't active then, so i can't speak to that, but i'd expect that to possibly impact his electability. I'd say long-shot with the possibility of upgrading to toss-up, yes.
Calvin Coolidge: This election really does have a lot of former Presidents running.
Mousebumples: Well, 4. Is that really that many?
Calvin Coolidge: I suppose last time had just as many. With PhDre and Rach.
Mousebumples: There's a lot of former presidents that aren't running - lethen, hem, skizzy, PLX, phdre, rach, yeah.
Calvin Coolidge: Maybe it is significant because it is more recent Presidents.
Mousebumples: Well, that makes more sense though, doesn't it? Recent presidents are (hopefully?) still active and wanting to get involved.
Calvin Coolidge: If I understand, that wasn't always the case. It's certainly good that it is true now, regardless.
Mousebumples: Yes, definitely.
Calvin Coolidge: Final Thoughts
Mousebumples: I'm curious to see if the number of senate seats is upwardly adjusted anymore before the final electoral panel decision is made. obviously, once that's set, it doesn't matter if 20 more people run, so hopefully if anyone else is going to run, they do it sooner rather than later.
Calvin Coolidge: I think that the recent VP speech may have actually worked (pardon the surprise) in getting more candidates to stand for this election. A lot of these candidates seem to be serious, and this is shaping up to be an exciting election.
Malashaan: I agree. I'm glad we decided to really push people to run. I think it's important to general activity levels that elections are competitive, and that newer members feel that there is something worth running for. It's great to see some newer members running and (I think) having a serious chance against more experienced candidates.
Mousebumples: I'm glad to see (and hear!) that it helped, and i think it could be a good document to edit slightly (i.e. generalizing it for any race and any platform) and perhaps post in the newcomer's handbook and link with each upcoming race. You and WL had some great advice that i think really means more to potential new candidates. It's easy for someone like me (or another "established europeian") to say "run, it's fine if you lose". Losing still sucks, regardless, but when they can see that losing _now_ (which may not even happen) could result in them winning down the line ... it seems more worthwhile, and perhaps just a necessary setback on their road to greatness.
Calvin Coolidge: Well, I am nothing if not a bag of great advice. Also, love for Taylor Swift.
Mousebumples: *feigns shock*
Calvin Coolidge: But yes, I think there is a strong possibility a newcomer could take a seat here, and that's very encouraging for our region's future.
Mousebumples: What do you think of their (possibly) being more than 7 seats? Would you want to see 8 seats? or do you think an odd number of seats would be better?
Malashaan: I don't think having an odd or even number is that important. We haven't historically had any problems with split Senates. We have a good track record of working together to find compromises that can garner majority support.
Calvin Coolidge: I'm not all too keen on a very large Senate. I think there is something to be said for having an actual government, and a citizenry. If we make the government too big, there is that concern for me. I don't want to see a Senate of more than eight, personally. And even eight is pushing it.
Mousebumples: Well, i wonder if having a larger senate would help senate activity. If there's only 5 or 6 senators active and posting in the senate, there are less individuals online at a time or adding to discussion. Not that you want a 20 person senate, obviously, but i can see possible benefits to adding additional voices to the senate.
Calvin Coolidge: But how active does the Senate has to be before it becomes a hinderance?
Mousebumples: Hinderance... how do you mean?
Calvin Coolidge: Just like you said, we don't want a 20 person Senate, because that would obviously be too much. I feel anything over eight would have that same problem. Maybe "too much activity" is not what I meant to say.
Mousebumples: I guess i personally feel that right now, we're on the "too small" end, so i'd rather go bigger and adjust downward in the future.
Calvin Coolidge: "Too many voices", maybe.
Mousebumples: how can you have too many voices? isn't more voices a better thing? Yes, there would probably be less consensus, but i don't know that that's bad either.
Calvin Coolidge: For the CA, yes. For the Senate? Perhaps not.
Mousebumples: Why? What makes you say that? I think some of our best legislation is forged by challenging the status quo and making us rethink how things should be done.
Calvin Coolidge: Yes. Why do you need more than seven or eight to achieve that? I think when you expand too much, for something such as this, drafting laws can just become arguing with too many people over something too important.
Mousebumples: That's where an effective speaker can be good, i'd think. You should be arguing the point - not arguing with a fellow senator. And if senators are making it personal, that's where and when the speaker should step in.
Calvin Coolidge: Well, that's not what I meant.
Mousebumples: And, if things are divisive, that's when you call for procedural votes on amendments and the like. I'd rather have good legislation than easy legislation, i guess, is my point. Not that it needs to be "one or the other".
Calvin Coolidge: Exactly. And we have to remember the voices outside the Senate still are a factor in these discussions. I welcome those voices.
Malashaan: I think that 6 or 7 is probably the right number. Beyond that, it becomes increasingly hard for the Senate to focus on the key issues and maintain the professional, high-quality, and focused manner of working that we are lucky to have. We have the CA and the Grand Hall for larger groups to discuss and present their opinions, and good Senators consider the opinions presented there as well as the discussion in the Senate. I think there is value in the Senate being "smaller" to make sure it is continued to be seen as an achievement to get there. We've had non-competitive elections recently where every candidate was elected, and it hurt not just the public perception of the Senate, but also the general level of debate in the region as a whole.
Are you good? Okay, great. Prepare yourself for what some have called, "The Most Amazing Panel to Ever be Assembled". Don't ask who is calling it that, just take my word for it. Keep in mind this is before the announcement of Legendofpie's standing, and other campaign developments after Monday. Let us now commence with what has previously been found only in your "Wildest Dreams": The November Senate Panel.
Calvin Coolidge: First: Drecq
Mousebumples: I figure drecq is a lock to get re-elected as he's a very good senator. given that he's against both committees and senate aides, i'd wonder if he's likely to be re-elected as senate speaker, but that's another discussion for after we know the make up of the next senate. If we have 7 senators, and the pro-committee or pro-aide sides "win" a majority of seats, i could see a speaker who is more supportive of those concepts perhaps being elected speaker. However, he is a solid legislator, in my view, with a deep knowledge of our legal system and i'm sure he'll serve europeia well as a senator in the coming term
Calvin Coolidge: I think Drecq is the front-runner of front-runners in terms of getting elected. He blew away the competiton in the EBC approval poll. In the past election, voters showed that even if he has some controversial views, they know he'll perform well as a legislator.
Mousebumples: do you think his controversial views in any way damage his support for a potential second-consecutive (and about thirtieth cumulative
) speakership? Or is that something that we "outsiders" care about more than senators do?Calvin Coolidge: It will be interesting to see how the committee argument comes into play once the dust settles and we have our Senate decided. I don't think committees will cost Drecq the speakership, but it may cost him some popularity points if he shuts them down against the majority of Senators' wishes.
Malashaan: I concur. The speakership is typically an administrative role relating to smooth running of the Senate, rather than endowing the holder with additional power. The law certainly would enable the Speaker to exert substantive influence, but generally that has not happened, and Drecq does not view the position that way. I think the Senate will select him as Speaker because of his proven excellence in the role. If the majority want to expand the senate aides and committee program, I think they will have confidence that we will not block them from doing so, so it will not significantly factor into their decision.
Mousebumples: Do you think drecq's lack of support for the aide system will in any way impact attempts by some senate candidates to "officialize" the system?
Calvin Coolidge: Despite his views against the program, it will continue, and even if it is not "official" from the Senate, there are always other options.
Mousebumples: Fair enough.
Calvin Coolidge: Second: Notolecta
Mousebumples: I'd view his chances of being elected as being a Toss-Up - depending in part on how many more people (if any) run, and what the final call is on senate seats. Right now, we have 10 candidates for (probably) 7 seats, but neither number is written in stone at this point
Calvin Coolidge: I think his chances will really depend on how much weight people put on his term as CA Chair, as well.
Mousebumples: Noto has a good understanding of the law, and he's known for doing the grunt work that needs doing. However, he's also very controversial, and - as you stated - his recent terms as CA Chair haven't been pinnacles of activity, really. Whether that is the fault of the Chair of the CA membership itself is arguable, but the relative inactivity does reflect on him as the Chair, to at least some extent.
Calvin Coolidge: Noto has a long history of legislative work in Europeia, but he's never been one of the popular citizens. He even lost out in the last election to a candidate many percieved as a "joke".
Mousebumples: He's served as a senator in the past (twice, i think?), but i know he's also failed to be elected a time or two as well. i could see him winning ... or see him finishing outside the top vote getters.
Calvin Coolidge: Which really reflects on his inability to rally voters behind him when the chips are on the line. He did extraordinarily well in his two CA Chair elections, but he never really went against a pool of candidates like what he faces here in this, or the previous, election.
Malashaan: Noto will work hard and do a fine job if elected. His problem in obtaining votes is entirely down to his directness, which rubs some people the wrong way. I have no doubt he is more than capable to serve - the uncertainty around whether he will be elected is a case-study in how popularity unrelated to qualifications can play a significant role.
Mousebumples: Well, Noto wasn't the only one to lose out to a candidate who was considered to be a "joke." cordova - another candidate this term - is another who was at times among the top vote getters in the last election before not quite making the cut. it's possible that if the last half-dozen "joke" candidates hadn't stood both or either of them could have won seats in the Senate.
Calvin Coolidge: That's true, but many thought Noto's election was gaurenteed until he lost.
Mousebumples: Well, that's backwards
Calvin Coolidge: Such is politics.
Mousebumples: The last election was an interesting exercise in watching the variability of election returns. At one time, both cordova and noto had seats assured and anumia and rachel were sitting outside the senate, i think. And there were a number of other changes and variations throughout that 24 hour voting period that made it a must see entertainment event.
Calvin Coolidge: That's a very valid point. Hopefully, this elections brings just as much excitement to the region.
Calvin Coolidge: Third: Anumia
Mousebumples: He doesn't have a platform yet. And while I know he'd probably tell me that he's been around long enough that he doesn't need them, I know I'm not the only Europeian to refuse to vote for anyone who doesn't bother to post a platform. So I'd categorize him as "probably."
Calvin Coolidge: I often question if Anumia takes these elections seriously, and judging by his slow start last election, other voters do, too. As you mentioned, his lack of platform is telling, and only hurts his chances as we get closer to election day.
Mousebumples: He has less to balance in euro right now - as he's MoFA but doesn't currently sit on the court. while i know both drecq and anumia hae expressed a willingness to participate in all 3 branches of government before, i think both europeia (and the individual themselves) is best served by limiting their participation to one or two branches rather than trying to achieve such a trifecta. However, anumia's contributions to the criminal code were quite useful, i think, down the stretch, and i feel that he has a lot to offer this region as a senator. still, all the same, if there's no platform, i have to ask how much he really wants to be elected.
Calvin Coolidge: He did very well in the EBC approval poll, I feel it is worth mentioning. He's not bad as what he does, it is just tough to tell what he stands for at times.
Malashaan: In many ways, Anumia is the opposite of Noto. His popularity and reputation almost ensures he will be elected. That is not to say his reputation is not deserved, he has served many fine terms in numerous positions and has proven himself to be a highly capable legislator.
Calvin Coolidge: Fourth: Writinglegend
Mousebumples: I'd probably categorize WL as a lock. he's still a relative novice in the senate, but i think he's grown a lot over his first term in the senate. he has a lot to offer the region in this role, and he has shown his ability to balance his MinCult job and his Senate position over the past few weeks.
Calvin Coolidge: I think he's got a pretty good chance of getting reelected, after a strong first term. In the EBC poll, he even tied Drecq's approval rating.
Malashaan: WL is a lock. He is hard working and a proven legislator, but still has the excitement factor that comes with being a newcomer with ideas.
Mousebumples: He's got ideas - even if some don't necessarily want to institute those ideas sometimes - and i think the region is better off for having the discussions he's instigated with his legislative proposals than if we had not had the discussions in the first place.
Calvin Coolidge: His activity is very impressive, and he has a lot of ideas on issues like the Aide program, that move the region forward. If the committee issue does decide the speakership next term, he might be a candidate to watch for.
Mousebumples: Perhaps. I think he could work as a speaker, but I'd expect (depending on the composition of the next senate), a senator with more than one term under their belt might be preferred as speaker, if only because they'd be more familiar with all of the standards and procedures and such. But all of that stuff tends to confuse me, so i may not be a good "test case" for that sort of concept.
Calvin Coolidge: Well, sure, another candidate with more experience might be preferred, but the established candidates seem to be on the opposite side of the issue.
Mousebumples: Maybe. we don't really know where anumia stands
Calvin Coolidge: Ha. True.
Mousebumples: Reason #183 Why Platforms Are Good Things
Malashaan: I think WL would be a good speaker in future, but given the amount of time he puts into Culture, I think the next term is not the right time for him.
Calvin Coolidge: Fifth: Sopo
Mousebumples: I think he's a Toss-Up as well, in large part because of activity concerns.
Calvin Coolidge: Whenver Sopo runs for something, my first question is always the activity, as well.
Mousebumples: He's got a great understanding of the legislature and law; however, the last time he was elected to senate, he ended up resigning due to a lack of activity halfway through the term.
Malashaan: The effect of activity concerns on elections is very hard to predict. Sometimes it seems like voters place a great deal of importance in it, but at other times, people known to have low activity levels are handily elected. If Sopo does a good job in convincing voters that his policy positions are good, the activity concern should not hurt too much.
Calvin Coolidge: I think he does have a lot of progressive ideas, too, that I would like to see implemented, especially by someone of his legislative pedigree.
Mousebumples: Also, he's the Deputy CA Chair, and as discussed previously, there hasn't been tremendous activity there as of late, which needs to reflect on him in part due to his leadership position within that body. The question is, is half of a term of sopo make it worth electing him? byelections are not necessarily a bad thing, if needed, and they can sometimes add some new blood and vibrancy to the senate. I'm leaning yes, and I do applaud him for being one of 6 candidates with platforms
Calvin Coolidge: That's true. Even his private media organization, which many praised at its inception, has faltered. I would be willing to say that if there are seven seats, Sopo could make a convincing play for seat six or seven.
Mousebumples: If we have confidence that sopo can be active, he could challenge for the speakership if the pro-committee side wins more seats this time around
Calvin Coolidge: If they are willing to take the risk of an inactive Speaker. I'm not so sure the Senate is willing to go that far, but that may just be me.
Mousebumples: Yeah, but almost anyone _could_ go inactive. If you're voting for the "senator least likely to go inactive" is that necessarily ensuring the best leadership for the senate as a whole?
Calvin Coolidge: Good point, I just think it is something to consider.
Mousebumples: Granted, when HEM was speaker, his activity dropped off near the end of the term (as did that of his deputy), which definitely soured the activity and actions of that senate's progress
Calvin Coolidge: That's what I was thinking of, yes.
Calvin Coolidge: Sixth: Kraketopia
Mousebumples: I think kraken's a LOCK. He was a solid senator before being elected to the executive, and i think his executive experience will serve him well in the senate. (of course, both anumia and sopo have also served as president of europeia, so he's not alone with that credential)
Calvin Coolidge: I agree, as the last President, he brings a lot to the table, in addition to his Senate terms, etc. He has put out the most in-depth anti-committee platform out of all the candidates, however. I'm not sure if that will hurt his chances, though, considering what we've stated.
Malashaan: Kraketopia has shown himself to be capable in multiple roles. I can't imagine that his record will not gather him enough votes to be elected, regardless of his position on any given issue.
Mousebumples: Well, the EBC poll showed that citizens are generally divided on the committees
and i'm not sure how many citizens are "single issue voters" that they won't vote for him JUST because he doesn't like committees.
Calvin Coolidge: That's true, I didn't say there were many, but it will be interesting to see.
Mousebumples: Yeah, fair enough.
Calvin Coolidge: Honestly, I don't see it as a problem at all for him, but I'm not sure how strongly this issue will impact the election.
Mousebumples: Agreed
Malashaan: I also agree. Even if voters disagree with him on committees, I think most will trust him to consider the issue fairly and respect the vote of the majority should they opt to expand the committee structure.
Calvin Coolidge: Seventh: Shin
Mousebumples: I was going to say long-shot, but given that he's posted what will be a platform thread, that may be upgraded to toss-up. He wasn't terribly active, in the eyes of many, during his last senate term. he stated that his taciturn nature was due to the fact that he didn't see much point in adding a simple "Agreed" comment, which may be quite true. however, i know there are some outspoken europeians that are likely to take him to task for that previous behavior. his responses to those questions, and where he stands on this election's issues, will likely determine his electability.
Calvin Coolidge: As he has yet to release a platform, I'm unsure his positions, and I'll have to look at his past performances. He's been out of politics for a while, and his last stint as MinComm was widely panned. His Senate terms weren't too hot either. I think his personality, and his general appearance on the forums may be enough to sway some voters. I would agree it will be a close call to see if he gets elected.
After his platform was released with more details:
Mousebumples: i like that he pandered to me by including a packers GIF - that's like quoting taylor swift for you. We need more information, still, notably about the aide program, on which he hasn't offered that much insight yet, but i think he responses show that he's taking his candidacy seriously
Calvin Coolidge: I agree, this run is definitely not the run we saw last time, but I don't think he has earned enough of the voters' passion to be all that confident moving forward.
Malashaan: Shin is undoubtedly smart and has the capacity to be a good Senator, but I concur with the two of you - I'm not convinced that he has done enough to give the voters confidence that this is his time. If he is active through the coming term, I think he will have a very good chance next time around should he choose to run again.
Calvin Coolidge: Eighth: Cordova I
Mousebumples: He's another candidate that doesn't have a platform yet. without a platform, i suspect he'll fall into the LONG SHOT category, but with a platform, that could change. he's an old name in europeian politics, and he has quite a bit of experience in the senate and executive over the years. he would offer a historical perspective towards europeian law that most candidates cannot match.
Calvin Coolidge: His candidacy kind of came out of nowhere. He resigned from the CA a while ago, and that was right after the last election, if I recall. Since then, I don't know that I've heard from him at all. I don't see voters looking past that and electing him.
Mousebumples: He was also very cordial and classy in his loss in the last election, and that likely reflected positively upon him among the electorate. of course, if he doesn't post a platform, i'm not sure how seriously his candidacy will be taken, especially since he hasn't been terribly vocal or active within the parts of europeia that i frequent.
Calvin Coolidge: That's true, his experience and graceful exit may work in his favor, but I still think his lack of activity is insurmountable.
Malashaan: He failed to be elected last time due to a recent return from inactivity, and I don't see much evidence that he has done enough in the last few months to change that result. That said, depending on the number of seats, he may squeak in - there were a lot of candidates last time.
Mousebumples: If there are 7 seats, i could see him possibly challenging for that 7th seat. and if there are more seats, that throws a lot of this "projections" into jeopardy and can make things more difficult to predict. Honestly, some of the more controversial candidates might find themselves less likely to win a seat if there are more seats (and votes!) available
Calvin Coolidge: As always, the number of seats throws a curve at the whole prediction process, but I'm going off my assumption (which could very well be wrong).
Mousebumples: I think the top 4 or 5 candidates are pretty well established, but "negatives" (and those who won't vote for Candidate-A for any reason) can restrict the number of votes available to a given candidate enough to adversely impact their chances. Well, i think 7 was a safe assumption, until we got another candidate standing ... and perhaps more to come yet
Calvin Coolidge: Ninth: Angelus
Mousebumples: I can't speak for others, but i think a large senate, with a number of established senators, is a great opportunity for a newcomer (such as angelus, or another newcomer) to get their feet wet. Even if he does propose a Separation of Powers Act, i doubt anything will pass, and i admire his enthusiasm and willingness to get involved.
Calvin Coolidge: I would say this is a toss-up. He doesn't have a lot of experience in the region, nor has he really made a huge mark in the CA. However, he is one of a very small number to propose legislation in there this term, and I think that helps him out. Not to mention his Defense Director cred.
Malashaan: Angelus is certainly very new, but he did a great job as Director of Zombie Defense and that gained him significant exposure. I think he has a good chance of being elected this time and I look forward to seeing how he performs. It's always good to have a newcomer in the Senate to provide that perspective in debates. The key for Angelus if elected is to not be intimidated by his more experienced colleagues.
Mousebumples: I expect at least one relative newcomer will be in the senate next term - although i think only angelus and applebania are running from that crowd right now.
Calvin Coolidge: I agree. If only one newcomer makes it in, I could easily see Angelus winning that match-up.
Mousebumples: I'd agree with your tossup analysis, sincei i'm sure not everyone agrees with my preference of mixing old and new voices in the senate. even if newcomer-proposed legislation doesn't get signed into law, i think they have an important voice in the senate that we don't want to restrict or ignore.
Calvin Coolidge: He even posted a platform, which is a plus.
Mousebumples: Of course, applebania will hopefully (*fingers crossed*) post a platform to introduce himself more to europeia, which could change my calculus. however, as the only newcomer with a platform, i'd probably shade angelus as slightly more likely than a toss-up, but i'm not confident enough to move him to the "likely" category.
Calvin Coolidge: Right.
Calvin Coolidge: Tenth: Applebania
Mousebumples: Well, he doesn't seem to think much of his own chances, and it's possible that could turn into a self-fulfilled prophecy. hopefully, he'll post up a platform and really give himself a shot at winning a senate seat. however, at this moment, i'd probably categorize him as LONG SHOT.
Calvin Coolidge: I really don't think the region knows enough about him for him to get a lot of votes, although he did only stand earlier today, so he hasn't had a lot of time to gather his platform yet.
Malashaan: Yeah. I can see this election coming down to a choice between Angelus and Applebania, and I think the exposure Angelus gained in the zombie event will likely push him over the edge.
Mousebumples: Understandable. However, applebania may be new to europeia, but he does have some experience abroad. I'm not 100% sure on the details, but he may have substantial other-regional legislative experience to offer, which could make his perspective an interesting one to include. However, that's hypothetical, so i'm not willing to categorize him as anything other than a LONG SHOT until i get a look at a theoretical platform.
Calvin Coolidge: If that is the case, that will be an interesting test of how much foreign expereince really matters in elections like this.
Mousebumples: Yeah, agreed. i'm looking forward to learning more details about his other experiences and seeing how that impacts the race.
Calvin Coolidge: Eleventh: Seven Deaths
Mousebumples: Well, he's got a platform, which is a plus. However, the platform is not all that serious as of yet, but hopefully some serious questions will be asked (and, yes, i do plan to do some of that), which will give a better ideas as to how serious he is about being a senator and what sort of time he has.
Calvin Coolidge: I can't really give him my vote unless he clarifies his views on some issues, so I have to give his chances a long-shot until I get some information.
Malashaan: I expect SD's campaign to go the same way as Cordova's last term - he has been absent for too long and hasn't done enough to re-intrioduce himself to win this term. That said, he is highly capable and I hope he does start spending more time in Euuropeia, regardless of the result of this election.
Mousebumples: As i understand it, he was rather unimpressive as the president of euro a year or so ago because his activity in another region limited his free time to act on euro's behalf. i wasn't active then, so i can't speak to that, but i'd expect that to possibly impact his electability. I'd say long-shot with the possibility of upgrading to toss-up, yes.
Calvin Coolidge: This election really does have a lot of former Presidents running.
Mousebumples: Well, 4. Is that really that many?
Calvin Coolidge: I suppose last time had just as many. With PhDre and Rach.
Mousebumples: There's a lot of former presidents that aren't running - lethen, hem, skizzy, PLX, phdre, rach, yeah.
Calvin Coolidge: Maybe it is significant because it is more recent Presidents.
Mousebumples: Well, that makes more sense though, doesn't it? Recent presidents are (hopefully?) still active and wanting to get involved.
Calvin Coolidge: If I understand, that wasn't always the case. It's certainly good that it is true now, regardless.
Mousebumples: Yes, definitely.
Calvin Coolidge: Final Thoughts
Mousebumples: I'm curious to see if the number of senate seats is upwardly adjusted anymore before the final electoral panel decision is made. obviously, once that's set, it doesn't matter if 20 more people run, so hopefully if anyone else is going to run, they do it sooner rather than later.
Calvin Coolidge: I think that the recent VP speech may have actually worked (pardon the surprise) in getting more candidates to stand for this election. A lot of these candidates seem to be serious, and this is shaping up to be an exciting election.
Malashaan: I agree. I'm glad we decided to really push people to run. I think it's important to general activity levels that elections are competitive, and that newer members feel that there is something worth running for. It's great to see some newer members running and (I think) having a serious chance against more experienced candidates.
Mousebumples: I'm glad to see (and hear!) that it helped, and i think it could be a good document to edit slightly (i.e. generalizing it for any race and any platform) and perhaps post in the newcomer's handbook and link with each upcoming race. You and WL had some great advice that i think really means more to potential new candidates. It's easy for someone like me (or another "established europeian") to say "run, it's fine if you lose". Losing still sucks, regardless, but when they can see that losing _now_ (which may not even happen) could result in them winning down the line ... it seems more worthwhile, and perhaps just a necessary setback on their road to greatness.
Calvin Coolidge: Well, I am nothing if not a bag of great advice. Also, love for Taylor Swift.
Mousebumples: *feigns shock*
Calvin Coolidge: But yes, I think there is a strong possibility a newcomer could take a seat here, and that's very encouraging for our region's future.
Mousebumples: What do you think of their (possibly) being more than 7 seats? Would you want to see 8 seats? or do you think an odd number of seats would be better?
Malashaan: I don't think having an odd or even number is that important. We haven't historically had any problems with split Senates. We have a good track record of working together to find compromises that can garner majority support.
Calvin Coolidge: I'm not all too keen on a very large Senate. I think there is something to be said for having an actual government, and a citizenry. If we make the government too big, there is that concern for me. I don't want to see a Senate of more than eight, personally. And even eight is pushing it.
Mousebumples: Well, i wonder if having a larger senate would help senate activity. If there's only 5 or 6 senators active and posting in the senate, there are less individuals online at a time or adding to discussion. Not that you want a 20 person senate, obviously, but i can see possible benefits to adding additional voices to the senate.
Calvin Coolidge: But how active does the Senate has to be before it becomes a hinderance?
Mousebumples: Hinderance... how do you mean?
Calvin Coolidge: Just like you said, we don't want a 20 person Senate, because that would obviously be too much. I feel anything over eight would have that same problem. Maybe "too much activity" is not what I meant to say.
Mousebumples: I guess i personally feel that right now, we're on the "too small" end, so i'd rather go bigger and adjust downward in the future.
Calvin Coolidge: "Too many voices", maybe.
Mousebumples: how can you have too many voices? isn't more voices a better thing? Yes, there would probably be less consensus, but i don't know that that's bad either.
Calvin Coolidge: For the CA, yes. For the Senate? Perhaps not.
Mousebumples: Why? What makes you say that? I think some of our best legislation is forged by challenging the status quo and making us rethink how things should be done.
Calvin Coolidge: Yes. Why do you need more than seven or eight to achieve that? I think when you expand too much, for something such as this, drafting laws can just become arguing with too many people over something too important.
Mousebumples: That's where an effective speaker can be good, i'd think. You should be arguing the point - not arguing with a fellow senator. And if senators are making it personal, that's where and when the speaker should step in.
Calvin Coolidge: Well, that's not what I meant.
Mousebumples: And, if things are divisive, that's when you call for procedural votes on amendments and the like. I'd rather have good legislation than easy legislation, i guess, is my point. Not that it needs to be "one or the other".
Calvin Coolidge: Exactly. And we have to remember the voices outside the Senate still are a factor in these discussions. I welcome those voices.
Malashaan: I think that 6 or 7 is probably the right number. Beyond that, it becomes increasingly hard for the Senate to focus on the key issues and maintain the professional, high-quality, and focused manner of working that we are lucky to have. We have the CA and the Grand Hall for larger groups to discuss and present their opinions, and good Senators consider the opinions presented there as well as the discussion in the Senate. I think there is value in the Senate being "smaller" to make sure it is continued to be seen as an achievement to get there. We've had non-competitive elections recently where every candidate was elected, and it hurt not just the public perception of the Senate, but also the general level of debate in the region as a whole.
