Live Coverage: Senate By-Election

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Live Coverage: Senate By-Election​

It is election day in Europeia and the polls have opened for a crucial Senate by-election. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Senator Sopo, who resigned to focus his full attention on his Chief of State campaign. The open seat will be filled before the Senate is currently scheduled to vote on the election of the next Chief of State, meaning whoever is elected Senator will have a vote in the Chief of State election. Not only will the newly-elected Senator take on this powerful responsibility, but they will also have the opportunity to help shape the reform discussions currently taking place in the Senate. The stakes could not be higher.

The polls suggest that Minister of Interior McEntire is on course to win this election comfortably, with his nearest competitor GraVandius far behind. However the polls have been wrong before and with such a wide filed and a massively increased electorate, anything can happen and no candidate will be taking this race lightly. The other candidates, all of whom the polls suggest are minor candidates, will be hoping to deprive the two heavyweights of enough votes to win on the first ballot triggering a run-off election. Then they’ll be hoping to pull off a political upset and overtake at least one of the two frontrunners to ensure that they are one of the two candidates in a run-off election.

EuroWeekly will be providing coverage of this crucial by-election throughout the day, with the latest from the candidates, the polls and most importantly of all, the voters.
 
Nice summary of the events going in and thanks for doing this Lime!!
 
I've witnessed what "the polls have been wrong" now first hand. GraV and McEntire are tied, and at this point, a runoff is extremely likely, barring divine intervention.
 
With turnout as high as it is, I suppose even a commanding lead in a poll might not hold up. Very interesting turn of events, even if it did correctly show us the top two, these margins are wild.
 
Election Update.

As of now, 45 votes have been cast in this by-election and the results so far are showing a vastly different picture than what the opinion polls were suggesting. Currently the two frontrunners, GraVandius and McEntire are neck and neck with GraVandius leading by one vote. More than two-thirds of all ballots have been cast for one of the two frontrunners, with the other candidates trailing behind. Darkslayer is the closest other candidate to GraVandius or McEntire and he is currently far behind both. None of the other three candidates has more votes than the Re-Open Elections option which currently has three votes.

When asked for comment on the race, McEntire told EuroWeekly. “It is a tighter race than polls showed, I am grateful for my current support, and I hope to earn the vote of every Europeian I can before the day is out. For the rest of the term, I look forward to contributing to the reform discussion, as a Senator or from the outside. But it's in the people's hands now.”

GraVandius was also asked for comment and said. “I feel very happy to be doing quite well among a field of wonderful fellow candidates.”

EuroWeekly is currently forecasting a run-off election between GraVandius and McEntire, however, due to many unknowns including the number of voters still to cast ballots we are not willing to make a projection yet. It is clear however that this will be a disappointing night for BionNasa, SkyGreen and Winna who will all almost certainly fail in their bid to become Senator or enter a run-off election. It also appears highly unlikely that Darkslayer will be one of the candidates in any potential runoff unless he sees a major turnaround in his fortunes very shortly. The remainder of this race will likely be between GraVandius and McEntire, who will each attempt to win the election outright and prevent a head to head runoff. While it appears doubtful that either candidate will be able to win outright on the first ballot it is not outside the realms of possibility. Both candidates will also want to gain as many votes as possible as the more votes they win now, the more momentum they can build for their campaigns in a future runoff election.
 
I hope to see more of the candidates that fell short today, and that they continue to stay involved in our region's legislative discussions going forward.
 
Election Update: Darkslyer Partially Concedes Race. Will Make Formal Announcement Tomorrow

EuroWeekly has been in contact with the campaigns of each of the other candidates. Winna and Darkslyer have each provided a statement, and we await comment from the other two campaigns.

Speaking about the results so far Winna told us "It doesn't surprise me the McEntire is winning as my interactions with them have all been positive." When asked if he would endorse either GraVandius or McEntire in the event of a runoff, Winna stated: "I feel as if I am not qualified to make an endorsement and wish the best of luck to the others."

Darkslyer, in his statement to EuroWeekly, partially conceded the race and announced who he would support in the event of a runoff between GraVandius and McEntire. "This election has been a great opportunity for new faces (including myself) to stand. Although I am unlikely to be in the top two - I do want to thank all who voted for me and put their faith in me! It’s been an interesting election - and I’m sure either GraV or McEntire will do a great job in the Senate (depending on who will win). I will be planning to endorse McEntire. I have paid very close attention to McEntire and their commitment is commendable. Even though they didn’t win in the previous election, they bring vital experience and a fair view - which I believe, the Senate critically needs." He then informed us that he would make a formal announcement to all later tomorrow.

With a runoff election likely, the McEntire campaign will be very happy to have the endorsement of Darkslyer who appears likely to finish in third place. While Darkslyer may not win a huge number of votes, he is significantly further ahead of the other minor candidates and if the runoff is as close as the main election, then even a few votes will prove pivotal.
 
Although the top two have a fairly decisive lead over the rest of the field, I hope the others don't feel discouraged - they ran great campaigns and did extremely well, particularly for being so new. I hope to see them in the Senate some day soon :)
 
Election Update: Runoff Election Projected

We are now confident enough in our forecast to project that a runoff election will occur between GraVandius and McEntire. This projection may not be surprising given the two candidates have consistently been in the lead during the by-election by a wide margin. However, both remain neck and neck with McEntire ahead by just one vote. The upcoming runoff election is expected to be equally as close with the main question being, where will the minor candidate's votes now go?

EuroWeekly now has a comment from BionNasa who told us: "I have no reaction, defeat was obvious. I ran with no platform. My goal was to get to know the electorate of Europeia and I feel like I accomplished that. I'll be back eventually. No endorsement from my end as I have neither spoken to the two front runners nor do I feel like my endorsement would tip the scale. Best of luck to both."

SkyGreen has also provided comment to EuroWeekly and announced that he would be supporting McEntire in the runoff. "Well, I did get two votes which is twice the amount I thought I'd get so that's nice. It comes as no surprise that the three top spots are McEntire, GraVandius and Darkslayer, and I wish both GraVandius and McEntire the best in the run-off election. Though I would still like to say that I endorse McEntire in the election."

McEntire now has the endorsement of two soon to be defeated candidates. Between them, Darkslyer and SkyGreen have almost 19% of all ballots cast, and with McEntire and GraVandius dominating with almost 70% of all ballots between them, this 19% will prove critical in securing victory in a runoff election. While it is unlikely all of their supporters will follow their candidate's advice, an endorsement is still likely to influence the minds of some voters. While neither McEntire or GraVandius will be taking the runoff election lightly, the McEntire campaign must feel that the momentum is building up behind them. The GraVandius campaign will need a strong get out the vote effort as well as a strong targeting of the defeated candidate's supporters to limit the momentum the McEntire campaign is now building.
 
Election Update: Awaiting Final Results

As projected a runoff election has occurred between McEntire and GraVandius, after the first ballot resulted in no candidate winning an overall majority. McEntire narrowly won a plurality of all votes cast with 18 votes, closely followed by GraVandius with 16. Darkslyer came in third place with 7 votes while all the other candidates received just one or two votes. The Re-Open Election option received 3 votes. Following Europeian law, as no candidate won a majority of ballots cast, McEntire and GraVandius proceeded to a runoff election as the two candidates with the most votes. The polls opened just before 18:00 BST on May 1st and will close later today at the same time. Under the Elections Act, results from runoff elections remain hidden until the polls close and therefore EuroWeekly is unable to provide a running commentary of the results as they come in.

Going into the runoff the momentum appeared to be behind the McEntire campaign, having narrowly won a plurality of the votes cast in the first ballot and having won the endorsement of two defeated candidates. Particularly important to the McEntire campaign was the endorsement of Darksyer who came in third place, with a not-insignificant number of votes. However, given the closeness of the first ballot between McEntire and GraVandius, victory is not a sure wrapped thing for the McEntire campaign. GraVandius performed far better in the first ballot than the polls were suggesting he would, and perhaps the silent voters will lead GraVandius to victory. With both GraVandius and McEntire having similar levels of legislative experience and the first ballot being so close, both candidates likely attract the same kind of voter. It seems unlikely therefore that one candidate will receive the overwhelming support of a defeated candidate and we can expect an equally close runoff, with both candidates picking up votes from the supporters of defeated candidates.

We will know the final results shortly, and we will be here to provide analysis and reaction to the results.
 
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