LIVE COVERAGE: First Minister Elections March 2019

LIVE COVERAGE: First Minister Elections March 2019
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Coming to you live today, the whole day, and throughout the night is the EBC ready to give you the latest news on the First Minister elections. We are off now, polls are opened and after a few Citizens waking up this morning to wonder why they have had their citizenship withdrawn. Generally it has started quite orderly. Polls are closed and now it will be x's in boxes that win it at the end.

So far, everything is pointing to a hung result and a runoff needed. But who's going to make it?

Throughout the day we'll be bringing you the latest from the candidates, citizens, voters and more. Who'll be through, and who'll be out.

 

[Vinage Vinage]

Early signs are showing a three way split at the moment with one candidate's vote falling quite short. Based on it at the moment, and this really is early voting signs, we could be in for a long night here counting up the votes. Might even needing a run off to decide the run off.

I'm live here in the studio with Rand's running mate, Grav' -

Grav. How are you feeling so far with the results coming in? Do you think you can win it outright?

I’m expecting around 60 voters this election based on Kuramia’s Presidential Election so I think it’s going to be very hard for anyone to win outright this election with such various appealing candidates.

Also we just only reached 1/4 of the expected vote so it’s still very early on!

Very coy from one of the teams running. With a quarter of the vote in, though, it does look like a team that at the start didn't even make it to the first poll - might be celebrating. We are just taking a look across to twitter and can see the potential first First Ministers have been quick on the tweets...

 

[Vinage Vinage]

Thanks Steve with the weather. Sunshine over Arnholm it seems as the voters are out in droves to cast their vote in these historic elections. Polls have been open 2 hours now, with the keen having camped out overnight.

I'm here live with one now...

Senator Lloenflys... How long were the lines at your polling station?

Since my precinct installed new high tech voter check in equipment (it involves lasers, I'm not quite sure how it works but there was a lot of light and I felt light headed for a moment - it was thrilling!), there was no line.

And has there been anything that has surprised you this election?

My biggest surprise is the quality of the platforms. I don't say that to be mean, merely that expectations from a lot of people were that these campaigns were a bit odd - people lacked experience, or had been away for awhile, or seemingly had some temperament issues, whatever. And yet, the platforms were great, the debates have been outstanding, and I think those who were concerned about the candidates not being "up to snuff" have been proven wrong. As a result, despite all those complaints about the quality of the candidates there haven't been any votes to reopen the election.

Thank you Senator, and who's your money on now?

I am virtually certain there will be a runoff, and I'm going to suspect that we've seen the split that is going to carry through and that Izzy and Rand will probably be in the runoff. That is not necessarily how I voted but it does look like we are seeing that pattern fairly clearly emerge.

Back in the studio, and our next update will be in a few hours time.

 

[Vinage Vinage]

We are back in the studio, five hours since polls opened and our staff have been out calling everyone they know to put together the following trend analysis of how the election has been going. Since this is telephone data, we've included a margin of area range so you can see just how this might still pan out.

After a rocky start in the first few districts - Rand has come back pretty strong and it seems to have come at Recombis' expense. At the start, we wondered if the Rand campaign was a joke but it seems his vision is resonating strongly with some voters. Meanwhile Izzy's attempts to pull away just haven't quite got there. Yet there they are on top. Recombis is chasing around in third place and, for someone who's not been a Minister before, this is looking like a great result for him. While Punchwood's dream of being the first, First Minister seems to have not really have got started. ROE meanwhile is yet to earn a vote... don't expect that to remain the case though. This is Europeia after all.

Based on current trends, it is looking like Izzy might pull a bit away but there is not much give left in there. Meanwhile Recombis' vote is expected to tick up slightly. Only a few more in his team's direction and we might be looking at a run-off for the run-off.

We are going live now to Team Izzy HQ.

You've had an early lead, it is close though. Do you think the afternoon's polling districts will be in your favour?

I don't know. I certainly hope so but it'll probably go into a run-off.

Do you think you'll triumph in a run off, or will whoever's second leapfrog?

I think it's really anyone's election and Prim and I will be getting out the vote today to try to give us the edge we need to win.

Do you think you'll start to pull away from Rand then, or is this going down to the final few districts?

The Izzy/Prim ticket values every district and we aren't going to let ourselves get complacent. We're not the Clinton team.

Thank you Izzy for the time. I'll leave you to get back on the phone.

We are now checking Twitter and out there, and Recombis seems to be enjoying this election:

We are awaiting word from the Punchwood team and assume they are out there, pounding the districts to whip their supporters into voting in the mid-part of this election.

 

[Vinage Vinage]

We are back in the studio, eight hours in now and what looks like perhaps 80% of the districts coming in so far. Our teams have been following this hour-by-hour and have the latest update for you:

As you can see, just after the mid-point and it seemed Team Izzy were starting to think they were walking away from the crowd Rand struck pack and took the lead for a good hour. This sharply twisted again an hour later and we have been stuck with less than 3% margin between the two runaway leaders in this race so far. Again, we have to repeat, at the start of this election hopes were not high for Rand in this and they did not make it into the first poll run. Looking over the trend lines, we really might be heading down to a vote or two between them which will make their overnight courting of the voters for Recombis and Punchwood so important. Meanwhile the vote for Recombis seems to have remained fairly on trend with Punchwood's still perhaps way below what it might have been should this election happened a few months ago.

I'm here with a few of the candidates now, and their teams. So Punchwood

Gradually districts are coming in. Is the runoff the best hope you have for making it to the next day?

We are headed towards a runoff election that much is clear. My team and I will be working as hard as possible to ensure that we are in that run-off.

I am also joined here by Rand's running mate in this election, Grav.

So Grav, are these the results that you expected when you first announced you were running?

These results were definitely not what we expected when we stood. We are honored that so many Europeians have chosen to support our ambitious vision for the First Ministership and, should they choose to elect us, we will be working very hard on implementing that vision for the benefit of the region.

There was have it from two of the teams. Our next update will be in a few hours and likely from the night staff on the desk.

 

[Vinage Vinage]

Overnight the final few districts game in, we are just awaiting some verification on these as some have come very close. We can confirm though that overnight there was no sign of it not heading to a run-off election and now it will be on the two advancing candidates to win the voters from those backing Recombis and Punchwood as they fall off the ballot in the next round.

What we have noticed is there seems to be discussions between the four camps and we'll have cameras ready to catch either of the two defeated candidates in case they announce a formal backing for their voters to either Izzy or Rand. What has surprised people most of all though? How did two lead candidates who have been on the side of non-reform end up taking this to the next round? Pundits are suggesting that it was the platforms, not the personalities, that guided their voting in this election. Something that will help Punchwood in races in the future.

As you can see, the election at the top has twisted and turned itself with Rand and Izzy fighting it out between them. The later part of the election has gone Rand's way with district after district just putting him ahead of Izzy. However with such a slim lead, really where those now lost voters will go is going to be the talk of the second round - some are suggesting there might even be a ROE campaign launched now from dissatisfied voters at having to choose between the two non-reform candidates. That might just be the tipping point in this election - will the inclusion of Prim in Izzy's team be what makes the difference here for some.

Between Punchwood and Recombis it has narrowed once more. There are swirling rumours that either team might be soon to make an announcement conceding and asking their supporters to back on of the other platforms. Though with each team already setting up their Ministers for the term ahead - just want can be offered? Who'll be moved out of role to make way for such a deal.

We'll bring you more, should anything else develop.

 

[Vinage Vinage]

RUN OFF - DAY TWO

And so we are back, we expected it to go to a run off and it has done so. We are going live now to the campaign for Recombis to see if there are any new developments...

Recombis' Statement

Fellow Europeians, dear friends,

As soon as Pichtonia said he would be my Deputy First Minister, the greatest challenge of my Europeian lifetime began.

Creating an agenda, forming a team, the debates, endless discussions with Pichtonia: All that has been exhausting, but I don't feel tired. It was great fun. A total outsider in this race at first, I was excited to be tied for second in some surveys.

Excited to see that increasing numbers considered me a natural leader, to have the right vision and to be relatable. Every little nice word about our campaign reinforced my view that this all is right.

In the end, it wasn't enough. We thank Punchwood and Grizzli for the fair election and wish the tickets Izzy and Rand the best of luck in the runoff. Both campaigns have undeniable strengths (and likewise undeniable weaknesses, like we had).

Ultimately it will be for the voters to decide where strengths and weaknesses are better balanced and who has the better vision. Pichtonia and I will make that judgment for ourselves and refrain from recommending a vote either way.

Thank you, everyone, for your participation in this election.

Signing off - Recombis and Pichtonia

There we have it from the 3rd placed candidate. Clearly whatever deal might have been worked out, hasn't come to fruition and the polls are now open. Also there is the following tweet from Recombis which it coming through...



Early voting seems to have been slower against the first election, so clearly there is some apathy there. We've managed to pull one person out of the crowd and going live...

Senator Lloenflys, how are you feeling about having to go to the polling station again?

My only question is, why don't I get to vote for something every day? I LOVE ELECTIONS! You should see my collection of I VOTED stickers ... it's 3 feet high! If we could cast a vote for what I was going to have for dinner every night, I would be THERE. Mmmm food ... wait, what was the question? Oh! The election! Yes! to be honest, I am not surprised. We had four great tickets who each had strengths and, let's be honest, liabilities. It seemed pretty clear none of them was going to pull away so a runoff always seemed inevitable. I was ready, willing, and able to report for duty and vote again this morning. Runoffs are also much more exciting when you aren't one of the candidates.

Do you think this will end up in a dead heat requiring you and the Senators to make a decision tomorrow?

While that would be fascinating, I sincerely hope not! I would like to see one of the two campaigns pull ahead at least slightly to ensure that there is more of a mandate. That said, the process is the process, and sometimes things just end up evenly divided. You must have a mechanism to deal with those situations, and if the Senate is called upon to resolve this election we will do so with care and careful consideration.

How hard will it be to make a decision, should it? Could be Speaker Aexnidaral Seymour's first motion to handle

That's an excellent question - I have not discussed this election directly with any of my fellow Senators, so I'm not sure what everyone's opinion is. I respect my fellow Senators, however, and I suspect strongly that we would be able to come together and decide how to proceed after a mature consideration of the question. I would like to see a consensus emerge from that discussion, if it happens, but until those discussions take place it's hard to know for sure whether that would happen. I can say, having worked with this Senate, I trust all of the members to make the decision that they truly believe is best for the region.

Okay now we have the early voting data coming in from our telecoms teams again. Fortunately we have swapped their shifts around, we'll be bringing our running total chart back in a few hours time. But, so far, it is looking like we could be seeing this made up with a few votes left. It might be Punchwood ending up crowning the winner in this - we'll see later and we'll be updating you later.

 

[Vinage Vinage]

We are back with a brief update, now running 4 hours in to the run-off and it seems that half the votes have come in so far. It was a slow start but I'm joined here now with one of the candidates Rand.

Nearly half way in, how do you feel about your chances going into this?

Our campaign's looking strong, but this is sure to be a close vote. GraV and I are grateful for the immense support we've received in this election, and are excited for what's ahead.

It is certainly looking close Rand. Do you know if Punchwood might be making a statement today calling on his voters to support you at all, or did this not get discussed at all?

We've spoken with Punchwood and offered our condolences and congratulations, but I can't speak for his campaign. We hope he will choose to endorse the ticket with the strongest platform and best qualifications.

Clearly very diplomatic stuff and coy from Rand. We know Recombis' team have not openly declared for any candidate... so eyes are on Punchwood but rumours are circulating that there won't be an official notice from his team until this evening.

Now let's check with the live polling team just what's going on...

So there we have it so far, it really did start slowly in the election. Izzy taking the morning vote and the first few districts - almost like yesterday but like that Rand has come back strong to now leap over Izzy in the last few hours. Following our trend, it seems that a few more districts going in Rand's favour might make it too difficult for Izzy to come back from. However, in the team is Prim. He's a professional elections winner, multi-term Senator so don't go thinking this one is over just yet. Prediction from me... draw.

Until later Europeia.

 

[Vinage Vinage]

We are back and, well, this looks like the final update as there may be one or two more districts left to pull in but unlikely enough votes in the bag to swing it. We had Punchwood's concession and public support then for the Rand/Grav ticket - was this too late? Already half the voters had come out by the time we heard this direction to his supporters. Our regular coverage though has produced...

As can see, the morning started with the usual flip between two excellent candidates before Izzy's small lead became several districts of even votes coming out. Our predictions then were indicating a potential Izzy victory due to their stronger start, and around the 7th hour there was the first break between them. However Rand stayed within the margin of error the whole time, and flipped it around barely by the 9th hour and this held true until the 10th and the night shift. This point though, our voter predictions had turned - especially based on Rand's strong performance towards the tail end of the elections. From then on it seems the team that, at the start, some thought was a joke campaign turned out to be serious. What perhaps will go down as a surprise result for a while yet - Rand/Grav have won Europeia's confidence to be the first First Minister and Deputy First. From us here in the studio - congratulations.