Is Modern Sin poised to become President?

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Prior Senate Election

T1. Kraketopia - 16
T4. Drecq - 13

Presidential Election

Kraketopia/Pope Lexus X - 25
Drecq/Elias Greyjoy - 16


Prior Senate Election

T6. Elias Greyjoy 14

Presidential Election

Anumia/Malashan - 24 *I
Elias Greyjoy/Huxwell Shaw - 8


Prior Senate Election

5. Remsol - 9 (Last by a blow out)

Presidential Election

Seven Deaths/Drecq - 30
Remsol/Mathew Vinage - 6


Prior Senate Election

T2. Cerian Quilor - 19

Presidential Election

- Cerian Quilor/Drecq - 17
- Seven Deaths/Malashaan - 15
- Notolecta/Drexlore - 5

- Cerian Quilor/Drecq - 22
- Seven Deaths/Malashaan - 15


Prior Senate Election

1. McEntire - 27

Presidential Election

- Common-Sense Politics/Drexlore Greyjoy - 17
- Elias Greyjoy/PASD - 11
- McEntire/Alexander - 11


Prior Senate Election

4. Apollo - 23

Presidential Election

- Swakistek/CSP - 24
- Apollo/Elias Greyjoy - 10


Prior Senate Election

2. Apollo - 25

Presidential Election

- Sopo/Vinage - 18
- Apollo/Lethen - 14


Prior Senate Election

2. Crist Seymour - 19

Presidential Election

- CSP/JGlenn - 22
- Crist Seymour/Skizzy Grey - 16

Prior Senate Election

2. Jusduckria - 23

Presidential Election

- Rach/McEntire - 16
- Jusduckria/CSP - 15
- Griff/ACKJVR - 5
- Switzlanzia/JGlenn - 3
- Stamosian/Mekhet - 2

- Rach/McEntire - 27
- Jusduckria/CSP - 17

I tracked this all the way to mid 2011. What I did was, I looked at the Presidential Elections and the last general Senate Elections prior to them and looked if there was any Presidential candidates who had ran in that last Senate election as well as how many votes they received. Out of the 9 elections that had people who had ran for the Senate and then the Presidency since mid 2011, those candidates won twice. The latest election was the only time in which two (and all) candidates had ran for Senate previously.

This says two things, the first is that most candidates do not run for the Senate and are either part of the cabinet or are on the outside of mainstream politics when they run. The second is that success during a senate election does not always translate into success for the presidential election. Kraketopia & McEntire are the two candidates who finished first for the Senate yet McEntire tied for second while Kraketopia claimed victory.

Of course, all of this ignores important things such as how their political terms in the Senate went. Or how strong their campaigns, running mates and opponents are. Getting the most votes for the Senate is a far different task than getting the most votes in the Presidential campaigns as well. You can't be a persons 6th choice to vote for in the Presidency to win their vote. So while Modern Sin may have gotten the most votes in the Senate, it is far from certain that this success will translate into Modern Sin winning his first term in the Oval Office. That will require him to invest his election success rather than spend it.
 
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Charlotte said:
I love this kind of stuff.
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Me too. It's just unfortunate that this sort of thing is pretty labour intensive. Plus my comp was being pretty laggy. But ever since I discovered Nate Silvers FiveThirtyEight I've had a bit of a love affair with stats :p
 
Zenny Anumia said:
Who knows what future plans are being discussed by the DAF :ph43r:
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Honestly, I'm not comfortable with the political elites in Europeia discussing how to run the region in private :emb:
 
Rach said:
Zenny Anumia said:
Who knows what future plans are being discussed by the DAF :ph43r:
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Honestly, I'm not comfortable with the political elites in Europeia discussing how to run the region in private :emb:
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I've been wanting to say this for days now :p
 
Interesting stuff. And why must I be reminded that I once ran on a ticket with Apollo? :p
 
Rach said:
In our next series... what are the chances Apollo runs with Lethen again?
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Also, who's the top in that pairing?

... Top of the ticket, of course, is what I mean. :gentleman:
 
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