Fall 2021 Presidential Election Liveblog

[Monkey]

OIM: Election Liveblog
​

Welcome to the first official EYES election day liveblog! Over the course of the day, various EYES members will be floating in to speculate and give their live thoughts on the election, and we welcome you to do so too! Polls opened about an hour ago, and we have some updates!

As a reminder, here was the last poll ran:

The responses are exactly tied between Lime and Lloen, with a runoff likely. Let's compare that with election day results:

Again, we know that polls are never representative of the total size of voters on election day, but there are some early trends here. It looks like Hell's Soldier's ticket is performing on par, which I'm not surprised about. On the other hand, Lime seems to be outperforming expectations, and Lloen has a bit of catching up to do over time. I think the presence of endorsements were a huge factor for Lime, gathering up a handful of those all in a row over the course of yesterday had to help his campaign.

Endorsement Count:

Lime:

• Kazaman, former President
• Peeps, former President
• Greater Cesnica, former WA Minister
• Ervald, former President

Lloenflys:

• Kuramia, former President

Be sure to check in often for vote changes over time, and for other analysis by other Europeians!

 

[Xecrio]

18:18 Lime has taken an early lead here, and I'll say it has somewhat surprised me. The poll results pointed somewhat to a Lloen victory. Of course, there's still plenty of time to turn things around with 20 or so hours left. I think we'll probably end on or around the 60 mark for total voters, but I am expecting a runoff. I would be surprised if any candidate can achieve a 50.1% total, although it's always a possibility.

 

[McEntire]

I'll go ahead and go on the record: I would put money on there being no runoff. I am not sure which way the race will go, but in the last year the region has had several three-way races that have not gone to a runoff, with "third" candidates that have drawn more of the vote than HS/Gaudosia. We shall see what the outcome is, presidential elections typically have multiple reversals over the course of the day.

At the end of the day, you'd rather be Lime at this point, but anything is possible. I would also say, if Lime does wind up victorious, it may be due to a coordinated campaign rather than some ambiguous change in the "momentum" of the race. To me, the back-to-back postings of endorsements pointed towards a coordinated roll-out to maximize impact the day before the election. And the Lime/SkyGreen ticket has been aggressive in its GOTV. Some campaigns adopt a strategy of trying to get their voters out early to build an insurmountable lead, or at least an air of inevitability. Even thought voters won't see the vote totals before they cast their ballot, media reporting and general regional chit-chat helps get out the word of who is ahead at any given time.

So did Lime/Skygreen adopt this strategy, coordinate endorsements, and encourage their voters to get out there early? There's no way of knowing, unless they want to share their strategy. But to me, the campaign seems well-organized and focused, and this may have been their edge in the race so far.

 

[Monkey]

I agree with the above -- I do think this is an election where Lime and Sky may have worked especially hard to coordinate and organize, since it was so close. Individually, I'm not sure if these endorsements would have played a major part, but I think stacking them all within the past 24 hour certainly helped. In the past, I've ran with Lime, and I know how dedicated and hard-working he can be come election time. I will say that I received get out the vote messages from multiple candidates, but Lime especially was a candidate that repeatedly followed up and touched base on what I was feeling (although I'm not sure if this is just do to us frequently chatting on discord )

And, an updated vote count: looks like Lloen is starting to even out the numbers, but still ground for him to make up.

 

[Darcness]

As we stretch into the 7th hour of the election, Lloenflys/HEM have continued to gain ground on Lime/Skygreen24. Results are closer to earlier polling data by the OIM, pointing to a run-off. The Ash Administration's numbers are low enough, however, that all it can take is a vote or two in the right direction to achieve a first-round victory.

If you're either of the frontrunning campaigns, your Campaign HQs have got to be frantic, trying to dig up additional voters.

 

[Sincluda]

Darcness has officially endorsed Lloenflys/HEM.

 

[Xecrio]

I'm not too sure how any further endorsements are going to affect the outcome, here. It's a very close race and we're looking very likely to be headed to a run-off.

I suspect that most, of not all voters have already made up their minds and so any new endorsements is unlikely to affect that. It's not impossible, however. Both campaigns (I'm excluding Hell's Soldier/Gaudosia here because they're pretty much out of the race) will need to ensure that they maintain their momentum of their campaigns throughout the night and for the remainder of the first round vote.

Once we head to a run-off, it will mostly depend where HS voters go. We saw in the recent poll that the 9.7% of people moved to Lime. If that trend repeats itself, then it's a Like victory. Run-offs have the potential to attract a few more voters than the first rounds, so of course, Lloen could swing things his way, too. All things said it's going to be a very tight end to the election.

 

[Monkey]

We're about 12 hours in -- and the election has steadily made its way towards Lloen's favor all day. The two candidates are just one vote apart, with Hell's Soldier's ticket trailing behind still. It looks like most of the votes have been cast, and unless something major happens, it's likely this will go towards a runoff. What looked like a Lime lead in the beginning has turned into something closer resembling the initial polling we released -- both candidates are nearing the 50% mark, but are blocked by the third ticket.

The candidates also each chimed in with a few last thoughts regarding the election:

1. How are you feeling today?

Lime: Hello, Lime here. I have moved back to Glasgow IRL and have enjoyed reconnecting with friends I've not seen in over a year!! As well as meeting new people. I'm excited with the election as well, and I'm humbled by the support we've seen so far. So all in all I am feeling very good!

Sky: Hi, Sky here. Feeling a bit tired due to IRL obligations, but also very excited about the race. I think we all put our best on the table so all in all it's a good feeling.

Lloenflys: No matter how many elections I'm personally in, election day is always nervewracking and exciting. Today is no exception - I had a feeling we probably were going to be in a for a fairly narrow election, and it seems to be shaping up that way, so we just have to see what happens!

HEM: Good! I recognize that I've been an underdog in this race -- initially running for VP without the top of the ticket, then having a ticket shake-up between Calvin and Lloen. But I think our campaign has folks thinking very deeply about the Fronter/Stronghold update and no matter the result, we will keep pushing there and on other key policies.

Hell's Soldier: Hi today I am feeling great. It's election day and my running mate and I are both excited.

Gaudosia: I am feeling excited, enthralled even, because whilst our chances our quite slim it is still exciting to see that even 2 new players like us can run for president so soon in their Europeian Career.

2. Any last minute words to your voters, or all voters today? What's one message you want to leave them with in regards to your campaign?

Lime: I think Sky and I have presented a comprehensive platform that clearly highlights our plans and vision for the next 70 days - most importantly our plans for the update and transition afterwards. We believe our experience, and plans make us best suited to lead Europeia through these challenging times ahead.

Sky: I hope you can vote for LimeGreen - the fresh and juicy option. I think our campaign has been thorough and I hope we've been able to show that we will be prepared for the upcoming term regardless of how the details pan out, should we win.

Lloenflys: Nothing but platitudes [IMG alt=""]https://discord.com/assets/da3651e59d6006dfa5fa07ec3102d1f3.svg[/IMG] Thank you for everyone who considered voting for us, especially to those who ultimately did! Thank you to all of the candidates for running an excellent, if very compressed feeling, campaign. And thank you to everyone who has worked on covering the campaign, as there has been lots of interesting information out there!

HEM: The post that I made this afternoon in our platform thread was very much my final thoughts on the race. I think both tickets are worthy, but we have the plan for this unique moment. We'll see what the voters think soon.

Hell's Soldier: For the voters all that I can say is thank you for voting and to those that haven't voted make sure to vote since you the voters will decide who is the next president and vice president of Europeia.

Gaudosia: In regards to those who, voted for us I thank you deeply for your trust and open mindedness and for the everyone else my message is simple, vote if you ahve not already and thanks for voting be it for us or the other candidates.

3. Did you do anything to prepare for today? Reach out to voters, make any campaign updates? Any campaign secrets you want to share?

Lime: We've spent the day contacting our voters reminding them to vote, as well as make final arguments to those last reminding undecided voters.

Sky: We did reach out to some of our voters and potential voters. I'm not sure how many secrets there are, I think we've been pretty straightforward, but perhaps that's the real secret here.

Lloenflys: Certainly - we did some extensive GOTV, including reaching out to some people I was 99.99% sure were not going to vote for me but I believe in being pretty thorough, you never know otherwise. No campaign secrets to reveal at this time, but you never know what secretive stuff will come out in the future

HEM: I posted my update and touched based with a few people. Ultimately, I feel the die is mostly cast and our victory or loss will be based on our campaign of ideas. It's always fun to watch the tallies on election day!

Hell's Soldier: Today our main focus was on asking people if they are interested in being part of our cabinet by running our ministries. Lastly no I cannot tell you about our campaign secrets. If I did then they wouldn't be called a secret.

Gaudosia: In terms of preperations we did a good bit, we reached out to potential voters and asked them to vote be if for whom it may mainly and in terms of secrets, well there isn't much to it I suppose, be bold and take calculated risks I suppose sums it up.

 

[Sincluda]

With Lime/SkyGreen24 and Lloenflys/HEM tied in the vote count and a run-off likely, Hell's Soldier, in the name of their campaign, has endorsed Lime/SkyGreen24.
I think that this may mean a Lime/SkyGreen24 victory in a runoff.

 

[McEntire]

I'll go ahead and go on the record: I would put money on there being no runoff.

Well it wouldn't be the first time I owed somebody money. Good luck collecting!!!

The race is now perfectly tied. Sincluda, I have to agree with you that the Hell's Soldier endorsement does seem to tip the scales in Lime/Skygreen's favor, but there are still too many factors to call it in a race as tight as this. Will the same electorate show up in a runoff? Can more voters be persuaded to come out? Will anyone change their minds? Will all 4 of HS/Gaudosia's voters go to Lime, or are there any dissenters among the group? Are there any more endorsements to come?

But yes, the state of play is this: if you're Lime, you basically want the last 24 hours to play out again, but with four more votes in your camp. If you're Lloenflys, you're looking for a way to shake up this race ever-so slightly in your favor. As political junkies, we can only hope that some of this vote wrangling plays out in public versus solely in the Discord DMs.

 

[Lloenflys]

I'll go ahead and go on the record: I would put money on there being no runoff.

Well it wouldn't be the first time I owed somebody money. Good luck collecting!!!

The race is now perfectly tied. Sincluda, I have to agree with you that the Hell's Soldier endorsement does seem to tip the scales in Lime/Skygreen's favor, but there are still too many factors to call it in a race as tight as this. Will the same electorate show up in a runoff? Can more voters be persuaded to come out? Will anyone change their minds? Will all 4 of HS/Gaudosia's voters go to Lime, or are there any dissenters among the group? Are there any more endorsements to come?

But yes, the state of play is this: if you're Lime, you basically want the last 24 hours to play out again, but with four more votes in your camp. If you're Lloenflys, you're looking for a way to shake up this race ever-so slightly in your favor. As political junkies, we can only hope that some of this vote wrangling plays out in public versus solely in the Discord DMs.

I hereby challenge Lime to a Rap Battle on the floor of the Senate! <Looks at advisors who are vigorously shaking their heads no> … oh, uh, I guess it’s … not available. Never mind

 

[GraVandius]

If I don’t hear some super cringe rap lyrics about the philosophy of independence right now, I’m not voting.

 

[Sincluda]

The runoff election has officially begun. We can see Lime/SkyGreen24 take an early lead as the first votes come pouring in (even though we aren't supposed to ). This may be similar to what we saw in the initial election - quick lead for Lime/SkyGreen24, Lloenflys/HEM catch up and stay close.

The only questions - where will the Hell's Soldier/Gaudosia votes go? Will they all go towards the endorsed ticket (Lime/SkyGreen24), or split? And will some voters change who they voted for the first time?

 

[McEntire]

!!BREAKING NEWS!!
***PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL RESULTS***​

McEntire here, coming to you live from the OIM Studios, where we are getting the preliminary exit poll results from our flash poll of this harrowingly close Presidential race. For those who are just tuning in, Lloenflys and Lime are duking it out in a razor-thin battle for the Goldenblock, now in a second-round runoff where the results are hidden until the final tallies are announced tomorrow.

For those who just can't wait for those sweet sweet results, the Organization for Independent Media conducted a RAPID exit poll. So far, we have received 18 responses from REAL Europeian voters LIKE YOU, and here's what we found:

• Our sample voted 50% Lime/44% Lloen/6% HS in the first round, so slightly more favorable for candidate Lime than the overall electorate. As a reminder, the two candidates tied in the first round of voting.
• In terms of issues motivating Europeians, Frontier/Stronghold is the issue of this election. 88% indicated that it was the most important issue deciding their vote. Since the candidates largely agree on the issue, voters may be gravitating to one another based on their trust in the candidate and their plan for the coming update.
• In the second round, Lime leads Lloenflys 61%-39%, meaning that he picks up all HS voters, and one respondent indicated that they switched from the Lloenflys to Lime ticket from the first round to the runoff.

Now, could this be the result of polling trickery? It's possible. These results are not representative of the Europeian public, given sample size and the low number of respondents.

With that said, Lime had some indications of momentum in our previous poll, and picked up a number of key endorsements in the last few days. If you haven't yet taken our exit poll, go take it so that we can have a more representative sample.

We will continue to update with this and other numbers from our exit polling until the polls close tomorrow, so STAY TUNED!!!

 

[Kazaman]

I'd expect a margin much closer to the previous election between me and Calvin. The truly useful bit here is about where a few voters have moved, which is crucial information given how tight the first round was.

 

[Sincluda]

With the runoff tied, the vote now goes to the Senate!

fuckfuckfuckfuckfuck this political pressure

 

[Pland Adanna]

this is fun to watch

 

[GraVandius]

I mean pretty interestingly while lime was likely able to pick up the HS voters, Lloen was able to find enough people who hadn’t voted in the first round to offset that.