Thank you all for your contributions! As a note, the race is now 27-18
in favor of Lloenflys. Two votes have been cast in the last two hours, and turnout is currently 45 voters
My hope is that we get to ~60 votes, and I'd be happy with that. If we're under 55, it's not great. That would really reinforce the need to be out there engaging with our newer citizens and those who are just hanging out on the RMB. How do we bring them into the fold and get them involved in our elections? Outreach is a great first step, and I hope Lloen will consider embracing that as well should he win.
I do wonder whether there is interest in this sort of engagement - clearly it didn't resonate strongly with voters, but there is more activity in a few hours of the RMB than there was in the week leading up to election day. If we could take some of that wind and put it into the sails of our offsite community, I do think that would make a big difference! I have some ideas for onsite engagement that I've mentioned to folks, might as well spill the beans here! I think we should be celeberating Europeia's democratic process with onsite election festivals. Europeians should be bombarded with WFE countdowns to election day, and the flag should update with a countdown every day as we approach The Big Day. We should be driving folks to register as citizens and get engaged in the election process, and we should have a special discord channel for #election-day that we can drive new citizens and livebloggers to. Let's make Election Day in Europeia a really special day to celebrate! Or not... We can just keep doing this instead.
I personally think that it would have been a bit more interesting if they had brought a little more teeth to the debate, and to their campaigns overall.
Just kidding. I do think that enthusiasm could have been higher if candidates had been more willing to differentiate themselves. I think Lloen was the candidate who really went for "Hey, I'm just like Icarus except I'm not her so vote for me if you liked Icarus." It seems like without the ability to vote for Icarus, citizens went ahead and cast their votes for the other-Icarus in the race. That is a boring but very successful strategy in this election, apparently!
It's a flurry of activity here at the campaign headquarters of presidential candidate Lloenflys. I'm not too surprised that the number of voters is low right now. After all, even if it's Friday, it's still a work day for many people. I think we're going to see votes trickle in until later tonight, when the American east coast gets off work and has time to sit in front of their computer and make a decision...
We got a little over 60 voters last election, and I'm expecting we'll reach around that same amount this time around. I don't think our activity levels have lowered since then.
I like the enthusiasm! I hope you're right, and there are plenty of folks who are excited to vote when they get off from their jobs and log onto their mobile devices they have access to at their job... I don't know, I have to say I'm not as optimistic about a big surge in turnout. I dont know how previous elections have gone, but we do have 98 citizens
so in theory there are a lot of votes that are outstanding. In practice, are those folks going to tune into this election? I hope so, but I do think that activity has not picked up since November 2022, so I'm not sure I would expect more than 64 voters to show up.
At the 6 hour mark, we are 15 votes behind the June 2022 Presidential Election (total turnout 72) and between 6-9 votes behind the November 2022 Presidential Election (total turnout 64) giving us a total expected turnout of about 57, 58 ish. Of course, Maricopa county could come in late and a bunch of Honored Citizens could roll up at any time, but that's my best guess.
Let's see what that means for the Olde Delaware campaign ... sorry folks - I am going to rain on some parades. Because that's what happens when the data is out there, you get someone to tell you the weather even if it makes the race less excited than a closed poll
With 58 voters expected, 45 in so far, and a 9 vote margin, OD needs 11 of the next 13 votes to tie
. To win
in a 58 vote eleciton he needs 12 /13 (92%). For the last few hours (frankly, since fairly early on) it looks like OD needs a sizable portion of outstanding votes to have any chance of staying competitive, particularly given low expected turnout. This is the devestating consequences of having a moderate gap in a low turnout election - each and every vote (and maybe endorsement!) matters so much. The gap is big for the state and dynamic of the race. I won't say it's over because it's never over until polls close but you got to be sweating (and getting ready to make me some cocktails) if you're in the Olde Delaware / Sopo camp.