[euro538ia] JULY 2023 SENATE ELECTION LIVEBLOG

​
1674191052117.png
EURO538IA ELECTION LIVEBLOG
Europeia Decides, and the EBC posts​
Palace of the People, Oval Room - Polls in the Senate election have opened, and we're off! As early results are flooding in, it's clear that that this big race will be competitive... and spicy! Good thing the EBC is here to cover it!

A few notes before we get started:

1. Our lovely EBC contributors seem to have some spotty availability throughout this election (not to mention that so many of them are candidates!), so this liveblog may be updated regularly or barely. We shall see! Yet another unpredictable aspect of this exciting election...

2. The EBC has already released a great load of top-notch coverage of this race! Make sure to check out the interviews of the candidates and the latest polling!

3. As intriguing as this liveblog and the hot takes in #grand-hall are, don't forget to vote yourself!

Alright, let's get moving! First up, I'm going to invite @JayDee to the blog! JayDee, what do you make of the results so far? What do you see as the issues most at play in this elections?
 
Click to expand...
Results so far

We’re seeing a mix of met expectations with a sprinkle of surprise. Lloen has shot up to a commanding lead that he is unlikely to relent. On the other end though, Prim who easily won the first seat for the previous election is falling shy of the projected 7-seat cutoff. Elio, Martyn, and ICH would be entering their first Senate term with a win and seem to be enjoying a relatively comfortable margin so far.

But anyone who’s seen more than one Europeian election knows the first hour is a terrible indicator of the results. We will likely see some major shifts over the next 11 hours before the results settle down.

Issue

I think the main issue has to be oversight. Senator McEntire inspired a big debate on how the senate conducts oversight and a lot of ideas and legislation were introduced this term to address those concerns. This new senate will have a tough job to tackle.

Besides that, our Frontier transition is still not entirely complete. We don’t know what we don’t know, so this senate will likely be busy on two fronts with oversight and addressing issues that arise from our Frontier status.
 
Last edited:
Thank you for those thoughts, JayDee! It's definitely shaping up to be an interesting race!

Now, let's bring some special guests! Senate Speaker @Lime, you have overseen quite a term! How would you reflect on this past term? How do you think it is influencing the results of this election? Do you have any other thoughts on the candidates or results so far?

It's also time to welcome @SkyGreen to the liveblog! Sky, you helped with the candidate interviews for the EBC. Which candidates are standing out to you so far, both in terms of substance and in terms of performance in the results? Where do you foresee this election headed?
 
Pland Adanna said:
It's also time to welcome @SkyGreen to the liveblog! Sky, you helped with the candidate interviews for the EBC. Which candidates are standing out to you so far, both in terms of substance and in terms of performance in the results? Where do you foresee this election headed?
Click to expand...
I would say this election Elio and Martyn. Both of them have really put in the work since they got here, both have experience outside of Europeia.
It was a great experiencing getting to interview Martyn, which I hope gave him a good chance to explain his views more in-depth.

Of course, another candidate standing out is Tim Wright, although in quite a unique way.

As for where the election is headed, at the time of posting there are already 40 votes in, and it seems likely we will have a 7 person Senate. It is still uncertain who will be getting in, as the last spot is only one vote away from being a tie. With that being said, we have somewhere between 16 and 35 more votes to go, depending on how hard our candidates have GOTVed.
Although I would say that a tie is likely.
 
With polls open for a few hours now, wanted to check in on the current leaderboard:

(3) Elio Somerset: Votes: 26 61.9%
(1) Lloenflys: Votes: 37 88.1%
(2) Gem: Votes: 30 71.4%
Olde Delaware: Votes: 18 42.9%
Provian Bee: Votes: 7 16.7%
(8) ICH: Votes: 22 52.4%
(5) Prim: Votes: 25 59.5%
(9) McEntire: Votes: 19 45.2%
(7) Ellenburg: Votes: 23 54.8%
(3) Martyn Kiryu: Votes: 26 61.9%
Tim W: Votes: 1 2.4%
(5) Common-Sense Politics: Votes: 25 59.5
Click to expand...

Overall, this race remains quite tight and dynamic. Senator McEntire certainly seems to be outperforming his approval rating, even though at the moment, he stands as a bit of an underdog.

It does seem likely that there will be seven seats this term. That would mean that Ellenberg, at present, would win the 7th seat. ICH would need net one vote to catch up, while McEntire would need net four votes and Olde Delaware would need net five.
 
And now, we have two more folks joining us on the blog! I apologize to both of them for pinging them in a little later than initially planned.

First up, @PhDre, the mastermind behind these liveblogs! PhDre, what is your take on the race as of now? What do you see as the most interesting developments so far?

Now, the renowned @Deepest House has also agreed to join in! DH, oversight has proven to be a hot topic in this election, with some candidates discussing reform. What are your thoughts on this issue? Which position seems to be winning out, if any?
 
Pland Adanna said:
First up, @PhDre, the mastermind behind these liveblogs! PhDre, what is your take on the race as of now? What do you see as the most interesting developments so far?
Click to expand...
Thanks for having me! I'm glad to see the liveblog up and running, despite recent challenges.

I think there are a lot of interesting developments so far. One is that we seem like we're in for a 7 seat senate, but 5 seats is over-performing compared to my expectations. If 7 seats does win out, there's fierce competition for that last seat, with Ellenburg, ICH, and McEntire all within striking distance. 49 voters have gone to the polls so far, which means we're almost at May 2023 turnout (56 votes). However, we could see up to 70 votes (Senator McEntire's recall) - I doubt we get that high, but it's possible!

Speaking of an interesting development, despite a frankly abysmal showing in the EBC End-of-Term poll for McEntire - not just in performance, but also in expected voting behavior - the controversial Senator is still in this race. If you look back at their previous General Election, they won a seat with exactly 50% of the vote. This in turn was a bit of a step down from their May 2022 and July 2022 showings. Having 44.9% of the vote as of this post is definitely an over performance, and I imagine GOTV and non-respondents to the EBC poll have a big say in giving McEntire a chance to regain their seat despite everything that's happened over the last month.

Another interesting development is how well some candidates have performed without a big campaign. CSP for example jumped into the race at the last minute, and candidates like Martyn Kiryu (who had not done a lot of campaigning) are, in my opinion, also overperforming. One possible consideration here is that some candidates on the bubble are being boosted by strategic voting from a polarized electorate, some of which appears to be trying to punish McEntire for their last term. Another idle thought is that I don't think that newer candidates to the Senate have really benefited from performance in the PA - indeed, former PA Chair Prov is not expected to gain a seat. What does it say about our institutions and the PA overall that it doesn't seem to be a stepping stone for less experienced Senate candidates?

Finally, the quality of EBC coverage of this election is in my mind was huge opportunity for candidates, and gave some bubble candidates the ability to engage with the electorate even if their platforms weren't as active. It was a lot of work from EBC staff, so kudos to all involved in ensuring that voters had as much information as possible today!
 
These are some super interesting takes, PhDre!
PhDre said:
Speaking of an interesting development, despite a frankly abysmal showing in the EBC End-of-Term poll for McEntire - not just in performance, but also in expected voting behavior - the controversial Senator is still in this race. If you look back at their previous General Election, they won a seat with exactly 50% of the vote. This in turn was a bit of a step down from their May 2022 and July 2022 showings. Having 44.9% of the vote as of this post is definitely an over performance, and I imagine GOTV and non-respondents to the EBC poll have a big say in giving McEntire a chance to regain their seat despite everything that's happened over the last month.
Click to expand...
Given McEntire's heavy GOTV effort, I'm not particularly surprised by his showing, but it is certainly still a major development and something to watch. Typically, I would imagine that voters would not choose candidate X simply because they like other candidates more, but, interestingly, the EBC poll suggested that McEntire's lower vote count was because of active disapproval of his performance this last term. Reelection after a net disapproval of over 40 points, with a large portion of respondents expressing strong disapproval, would definitely be impressive.
PhDre said:
Another interesting development is how well some candidates have performed without a big campaign. CSP for example jumped into the race at the last minute, and candidates like Martyn Kiryu (who had not done a lot of campaigning) are, in my opinion, also overperforming. One possible consideration here is that some candidates on the bubble are being boosted by strategic voting from a polarized electorate, some of which appears to be trying to punish McEntire for their last term. Another idle thought is that I don't think that newer candidates to the Senate have really benefited from performance in the PA - indeed, former PA Chair Prov is not expected to gain a seat. What does it say about our institutions and the PA overall that it doesn't seem to be a stepping stone for less experienced Senate candidates?
Click to expand...
This is another fascinating trend! I think back to McEntire's late entry into the presidential race a couple of terms ago. People credited his relatively strong performance with dissatisfaction with the field, but now we are seeing similar candidates perform well in a field with which voters seem to be satisfied. Maybe Europeians just love a little last-minute drama, or they trust familiar faces to govern well, even without much of a campaign.

Your People's Assembly point is notable as well, although I think it is too early to make a conclusion there. For example, Elio is performing well after making a name for themselves in the PA, and my guess is that someone like current PA Chair Phoenix could have won if they ran too. Still, this is food for thought.
 
Let's bring on another perspective! @Urduvan_Sultanate, you are a newer member of our community, and it is wonderful to have you with us. Feel free to answer any of these questions: How you are digesting this huge field of candidates? What is the status of the election results right now? What are the biggest questions left for us at the moment?
 
Pland Adanna said:
Now, the renowned @Deepest House has also agreed to join in! DH, oversight has proven to be a hot topic in this election, with some candidates discussing reform. What are your thoughts on this issue? Which position seems to be winning out, if any?
Click to expand...
Thank you for the opportunity!

I will keep it brief, consistent with the ideals of a live blog. Ain't nobody trying to read a tome on a Friday live blog!

As a result of the Senate's oversight fiasco that occurred last month, we've seen a renewed interest in how the Senate performs oversight, and indeed, an renewed interest in adding additional oversight methods/general oversight reform.

To me it is pretty incredible that the Senate is discussing this. The Senate has absolutely every power necessary to perform oversight: executive deputy confirmation and recall, passing legislation, veto override, compelling testimony from the executive, and on and on and on. The real issue is that the Senate just needs to use the tools that they have on hand already.

It is incredulous and absurd that the Senate is considering adding additional oversight mechanisms - and is basically doing so to ensure they conduct oversight. The Senate itself is admitting that they've been so bad at oversight, we need to legislate something for ourselves so we can get it right.

I contend they just need to consistently use the tools as their disposal and focus their legislative efforts where the can make a meaningful difference, regardless of the oversight fiasco that occurred last term. It was, indeed, a moment of embarrassment for the Senate.
 
Pland Adanna said:
How you are digesting this huge field of candidates?
Click to expand...

Honestly, as a newer member of Europeia and definitely not as knowledgable of the Senate and its workings, it's honestly quite intense seeing so many candidates, however it's also inspiring seeing so many candidates who are new to Europeia running, and I legitimately think this will encourage others to further engage in Europeia.

It's also nice (albeit strange to me personally) seeing so many candidates who have been in the Senate for 10+ terms and are continuing to run for it and are still suggesting ways they'll change the Senate. Due to the new circumstances such as the transition to a Frontier and Defender region as well as controversies with the last Senate, it will be interesting to see a mix of old and new Senators.
Pland Adanna said:
What is the status of the election results right now?
Click to expand...

As we're 5 hours in the elections, it seems quite solid that there'll be 7 seats in the new Senate, as opposed to the 5 seats in the old senate. Despite this, there's still a chance we continue with our 5-seat senate, although with, as mentioned above, the transition to a Frontier region being new terrain for Europeia, a 7-seat senate could be more beneficial.

As for the actual election, we see that Lloenflys (with 42 votes) and Gem (with 38 votes) have largely secured seats on the Senate, being more experienced Senators. There's close competition between Prim (with 33 votes), newcomer Elio Somerset and last-minute candidate CSP, the last two of whom are drawing in terms of votes at 32. If we get a 5-seat senate, this close tie could become more important but for now, they all have secured seats, although they have threats from the close votes between Martyn (with 30 votes), ICH (with 29 votes) and Ellenburg (with 28 votes), the latter of whom at this time may not get a seat if we have a 7-seat senate. It's an incredibly close call, and McEntire (with 24 votes) and Olde Delaware (with 23 votes) still have time to possibly secure seats, although they are not as close as the above 3. We can also see that Prov (with 9 votes) and Tim W (with 3 votes) are quite far off from securing seats, and are most likely not joining the Senate this time round, but there's still time for them as we're quite early in the election.
Pland Adanna said:
What are the biggest questions left for us at the moment?
Click to expand...
There's a lot of talk in the candidates' campaigns on reforming Senate oversight of the Executive, and it'll be interesting to see whether candidates suggesting reforms to this win out against candidates largely wanting to maintain the method of Senate oversight from previous terms. With the transition to becoming a Frontier alongside certain events between Senate and Executive, everything needs to change, which includes how the Senate works in relation to the Executive, and how it functions in general as there's still a few laws that need to be amended or created to fit with our status as a Frontier region. It'll be interesting to see the priorities of this new Senate in ensuring our transition is smooth.

I apologise for the long text, I just have a lot to talk about.
 
🚨 MAJOR BREAKING NEWS FROM THE EBC 🚨
​
After a whole day of tirelessly crunching numbers, the EBC's tireless team of statisticians, mathematicians, and other math nerds are ready to project victory for some candidates!! Please see below two Senators-elect:

EBC PROJECTS.png

EBC PROJECTS(2).png

As more votes continue to come in, the EBC will make additional projections, so be sure to stay tuned to the liveblog for more exciting news to come! Until then, this has been Special Correspondent Forilian, signing off from the Oval Room in Arnhelm.
 
Screenshot 2023-07-14 2.58.13 PM.png


Admittedly, this breaking news is not super exciting, but I needed an excuse to use the awesome graphic I "made". The news is that I am signing off for the night, but have no fear! The liveblog will continue to an extent because our resident Australian has agreed to join us!

@Istillian, where does the race stand at whatever time you are seeing this? How is turnout? It seems that the voters who did not fill out the EBC poll are voting very differently from those who did respond to the poll. Do you have any comments as to the accuracy of the EBC poll and how turnout has affected it?
 
🚨 MAJOR BREAKING NEWS FROM THE EBC 🚨 ​

With more votes having come in (a breathtaking 72 voters at press time, the highest of any Senate election since at least 2018 according to research from Senator-elect @Lloenflys ), the EBC is ready to make two more projections!

EBC PROJECTS(3).png

EBC PROJECTS(5).png

This election also continues to shift, with incumbent and pre-election perceived underdog McEntire continuing to catch up. If the race were to end now, McEntire and ICH would enter into a run-off for the last seat -- certainly a shift from the end-of-term poll, where McEntire polled barely above 20%. Some other candidates are also within relatively close range: Ellenburg is safe by just one vote at 39 votes, while Elio Somerset is another two votes higher at 41. On the other end, Olde Delaware and Martyn Kiryu are also closing in on the pack with 34 votes each. With McEntire in particular notable as a prolific GOTV-er, it will be interesting to see whether the candidates can draw in any more last-minute supporters before polls close in roughly 10 hours. But until then, EBC's coverage of this election will continue right here in the Euro538ia liveblog, so be sure to check in regularly for more updates!
 
Pland Adanna said:
@Istillian, where does the race stand at whatever time you are seeing this? How is turnout? It seems that the voters who did not fill out the EBC poll are voting very differently from those who did respond to the poll. Do you have any comments as to the accuracy of the EBC poll and how turnout has affected it?
Click to expand...
Hi there Pland, thanks for the questions! Right now we're sitting at a whopping 75 votes for our candidates, 62 for our seats, and four and a half hours left on the clock. It looks like we're going to be seeing a 7 seat senate, though 5 seats trailed behind competing with the 7 seats for a time. While the EBC polling did well with getting 29 respondents, and accurately predicted the popularity of candidates like Lloenflys, Gem, and even Prim, we now seem to be facing a fierce battle between some potential first time senators, and some reliable and experienced choices.

Interestingly, Olde Delaware and McEntire didn't perform as well in the EBC polling, and yet McEntire looks to be almost assured of a seat - which may be from a very strong Get out the Vote effort. On the other hand, Martyn Kiryu, who initially appeared likely to secure a seat according to our polling, is now falling a tad shy of the required numbers. Our polling did well with accurately predicting the seats folks wanted though, so we certainly had some reliable date predictions early on. Looking forward to seeing where we're at in the next few hours, and if any more votes can be secured - this really has been an unprecedented turnout!
 
With just an hour left until polls close, some seats are still too close to call!

The EBC has already projected victory for Lloenflys, Gem, CSP, and Prim, but three seats remain in the likely seven-seat scenario. As the race currently stands, Elio, ICH, Ellenburg, and McEntire are all within four votes of one another, so every remaining ballot could make huge difference. OD and Martyn seem to have fallen a bit more behind, and either one clinching a seat seems unlikely at this point. Then again, this is Europeia! You never know!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gem
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top