[euro538ia] August 2023 Presidential Liveblog

SkyGreen · Aug 18, 2023

I think the campaigns will mostly be looking for the biggest percentage of votes.
Jaytonia might even see a lead in the early stages, while Kazafed will likely be more patient and aware of the possibilities.
I am not sure what McPCs realistic expectations are, but if they get more than 2 votes it will be a success for them

Gem · Aug 18, 2023

SkyGreen said:
I think the campaigns will mostly be looking for the biggest percentage of votes.

This got a chuckle out of me. Thanks, Sky.

Forilian said:
@Gem: having previously run in the race, what do you think will be the most important issue in this race?

I'll be honest and say that I don't think there's any one definitive issue in this race. The one topic that has gotten the most discussion—that being the debate over what combination of Independent and Defender Europeia should identify as—is not the type of discussion I feel is significant enough to determine most people's votes.

Instead, this is a race that's likely to be decided by a confluence of factors. Ticket balance, perceived energy and enthusiasm, platform strength, and the thoroughness of the remaining candidates' plans for Europeia will, unsurprisingly, all play a significant role. The value of effective GOTV also cannot be overstated in such a tight race, as the final tally could be swayed in either direction by less engaged voters.

I'm not sure what direction this election will go quite yet, but I know one thing for sure: This will be an exciting showdown, and I can't wait for votes to start rolling in.

Pland Adanna · Aug 18, 2023

Forilian said:
@Pland Adanna : what do you think the campaigns will be aiming for?

Thanks for having me on! I think that JayDee will be aiming to translate his latest momentum, as well as former Gem supporters, into votes. The vibes of his campaign have been pretty good recently—will that be enough? We’ll have to see! McEntire will likely rely on a heavy GOTV campaign like in the Senate race, and, while that is not likely enough to win, I would expect that they could get a sizable share of votes, especially from voters who aren’t really engaged with EBC polling. As for Kazaman, I suspect he will focus on staying on-message by emphasizing his foreign affairs experience and “steady hand” and count on that to bring him to victory, in large part from more establishment voters. If I had to guess, I would say that Kazaman is the favorite heading into the election, but it will certainly be competitive.

Forilian · Aug 18, 2023

Liveblog Update

Polls opened around an hour ago, with turnout extremely high thus far. With 39 votes having come in at press time, JayDee is currently leading the pack with 19 votes, followed by Kazaman's 14 and McEntire's 5. The McEntire/UPC ticket, while outperforming the expectations of the Panda's Pen poll, seems unlikely to seize victory at this time, while JayDee/Pichtonia may still yet manage to avoid a runoff. Meanwhile, Kazaman/Comfed are hanging in there with a solid ~40% of the vote. We'll now go to special guest @PaleLand : what do you think of the vote tallies coming in so far, and what significance does it hold for the race? Furthermore, how do you think the high turnout will affect the election results?

PaleLand · Aug 18, 2023

First of all thanks for having me Fori!
Like Sky said JayDee was probably gonna get a high percentage of votes in the beginning, so current results don’t surprise me very much. A really high turnout of people means that early results won’t be really decisive for any of the three campaigns, even if I probably think that it’s going to be really hard for the McEntire ticket to stay afloat and compete with the other two tickets. JayDee has performed really well in the debate previous to the election and the GOTV efforts from him and Pichtonia are really favouring them over Kazaman as of right now. Speaking of Kazaman his real results will come out late in the election, so I won’t be surprised if he will have more votes than JayDee in the next hours. That being said it’s safe to assume that this is going to be a very competitive election and it could go either way.

HEM · Aug 18, 2023

If we were doing projections, I'd feel pretty confident projecting that McEntire will not be the next President of Europeia. Quite frankly, even conversation about an overperformance is probably a little overstated — yes, they are getting more than the 1-2 votes they got in recent polls, but all candidates in this election are going to get more votes than they got in pre-election polling.

JayDee is not a bad position, but if he was hoping that everyone else's support had totally collapsed to make way for the red carpet, that didn't quite happen. Kazaman has been behind him in balloting for most of the election, but not too far behind! I think this race comes down to who votes overnight, and what the numbers look like in the morning. I would say a runoff is a tossup — just totally depends on what is out in terms of non-voting citizens.

EDIT for transparency: pronouns

HEM · Aug 18, 2023

JayDee/Pichtonia Votes: 26 52.0%
Kazaman/Comfed Votes: 19 38.0%
McEntire/upc Votes: 5 10.0%

JayDee is pulling away a little bit. At this point, an overt first-round victory for Kazaman seems very unlikely barring a big swing in the next few hours.

Some polling had Kazaman doing better in the runoff -- but because of sample size that was a little flawed. But before we even get there, Kazaman has to get to that runoff which means netting two votes. Very doable! I think we will know more in the morning, but you'd rather be the person over 50%.

Forilian · Aug 18, 2023

Liveblog Update:

As of press time, JayDee’s lead has slightly increased to nine (28 of 52), though Kazaman hangs in there with 19 votes out of 52 cast so far. McEntire remains at five votes. If polls were to close right now, JayDee/Pichtonia would win outright without a runoff — though we definitely know how volatile elections can be in Europeia, especially with almost 16 hours to go!

We now invite special guest and former President @Lime onto the liveblog. What are your thoughts on the election? Do you think a runoff is likely, and if so, who do you think will have the advantage going in? If you were one of the candidates, what would you do right now?

Prim · Aug 18, 2023

I will note some personal observations on political topics and vote turnout.

Newer, more experimental, bolder voters tend to vote early and quickly.
Older, more "conservative", more cautious voters tend to vote later and over time.

Apologies for the "conservative" adjective, but in Europeian Politics it doesn't have such negative nuances.
---
Oh, am I not supposed to comment here? Sorry.

Lime · Aug 18, 2023

Thank you for having me on! This has been a really exciting and competitive election right from the start, and these results are proving that. It's interesting to have seen the results so far, where I think JayDee is likely overperforming expectations having consistently remained in the lead and crucially at various points being over the 50% line as he is right now. Kazaman based on the polling we've had appears to have an extremely high floor around the 40% mark and so far he's reaching that high floor but has been unable to go above it. That seems to be his main issue right now, and unless he can pick up support beyond those core voters he's going to struggle to win. McEntire appears to be doing about as well as I would expect him to be, I think he'll pick up one or two more votes and remain around that 10% mark.

As for a runoff I think it remains a strong possibility. Based on the past Senate and Presidential election we can probably expect a turnout at least in the 70+ range so there's still likely another 20 or so votes to be cast. That's a lot of votes and it won't take much to pull JayDee below the 50.1% that will trigger a by-election. Given the votes so far I think it's reasonable to presume that only JayDee could now win in the first round, the gap between himself and Kazaman seems too big for Kazaman to overcome and gain 50.1% himself. That also likely makes a runoff more likely given that we have three candidates in the race, however JayDee does appear to have a real chance of winning in this first round. He's consistently hovered around the 48% - 53% range, and right now at quite a late stage in the election he's above 50% and has a comfortable buffer between himself and Kazaman.

If however, he's unable to win outright in the first round I still think JayDee would be favoured to win in the second round. Unless Kazaman suddenly wins a lot more votes it seems likely that JayDee will top the first round and likely with a sizeable gap between himself and Kazaman. That alone makes him the favourite as he only has to win a small number of new voters to cross the finish line, compared to Kazaman who'd have to win a far greater percentage. However, what also makes JayDee a favourite and likely a strong favourite is the fact that the third placed and eliminated candidate's voters seem far more likely to support him than Kazaman. McEntire has been a strong, some have even said harsh, critic of Kazaman throughout this campaign and it seems very unlikely therefore that voters who supported McEntire would then support the candidate their candidate was so determinately opposed to. Additionally, I think there are far more similarities and crossovers between JayDee and McEntire's platforms than McEntire's and Kazamans which again would suggest those voters are more likely to support JayDee. Of course there are many complex and different reasons why a voters supports a particular candidate, and so voters could go in a completely opposite direction than we were expecting!!

If I'm JayDee right now I'm trying my hardest to remain above the 50% mark. Aside from undecided voters, I think I would target any potential McEntire voters and try and convince them that instead of voting for McEntire who's lost they should just vote for me in the first round. Try and convince them that there's not point in voting for McEntire at this stage, and that it only risks letting Kazaman win. I'm also probably reaching out to McEntire and trying to secure an endorsement in case of a runoff. If I'm Kazaman I'm doing all I can to keep JayDee from getting above 50%. So that's probably ensuring all of my base has voted which appears to be mainly comprised of older voters, so making sure they get out and vote and keep JayDee from that 50% mark. But I'm also probably keeping tabs on those soft-JayDee voters and seeing if I can flip any in case of a runoff because at this stage it seems unlikely Kazaman could win in a runoff without flipping a couple of voters. If I'm McEntire right now I'm not sure what I do. I know I'm not going to win, but do I keep trying to win some more votes to end on a more impressive note and prove the critics wrong? Or do I accept defeat and instead of risking a runoff by winning more votes where Kazaman could win, do I decide to stop campaigning to increase the chances of JayDee winning in the first round and thus defeat Kazaman?

HEM · Aug 18, 2023

I think the biggest unknown in this election is who McEntire's voters are exactly. I think there's this giant assumption they are fellow Kazaman haters, but it's just as likely people who (1) are less active and got their outreach; (2) liked something totally unrelated in their platform; (3) decided to throw them a bone because they assumed there would be a runoff. If this goes to a runoff I'd rather be JayDee, but I wouldn't put money on it.

Lime · Aug 18, 2023

HEM said:
I think the biggest unknown in this election is who McEntire's voters are exactly. I think there's this giant assumption they are fellow Kazaman haters, but it's just as likely people who (1) are less active and got their outreach; (2) liked something totally unrelated in their platform; (3) decided to throw them a bone because they assumed there would be a runoff. If this goes to a runoff I'd rather be JayDee, but I wouldn't put money on it.

I mean I agree to an extent but I think this is a far more compelling argument if McEntire had more voters, say 7-10. But given the numbers are so small I think it's harder to imagine these are uninformed voters and more likely are strong McEntire voters or strong anti-Kaz voters. But the main reason I think JayDee is favorued in a runoff is because he'll likely top the first poll and come pretty close to 50%. If JayDee ends up with 47%, 48% of the vote he only needs to win a very small percentage of the "new" voters to win. While Kazaman has to win those voters by 80% margins which is just a lot harder to do. I would not take anything for granted of course, things could still change, they could still narrow, Kazaman could even take the lead. But ultimately you'd always rather be the candidate ahead and JayDee has been that candidate so far and right now it doesn't seem very likely that that will change.

Forilian · Aug 18, 2023

Prim said:
Oh, am I not supposed to comment here? Sorry.

For the record, everyone is welcome to comment here! All engagement is good engagement

HEM said:
I think the biggest unknown in this election is who McEntire's voters are exactly. I think there's this giant assumption they are fellow Kazaman haters, but it's just as likely people who (1) are less active and got their outreach; (2) liked something totally unrelated in their platform; (3) decided to throw them a bone because they assumed there would be a runoff. If this goes to a runoff I'd rather be JayDee, but I wouldn't put money on it.

That's an interesting factor, I do agree with what Lime said though. Keep in mind that McEntire's 5 votes is pretty close to the Panda's Pen polling on how she would do all along (and even underperforms her earlier polling). Can a couple of these votes be pity votes? Maybe -- however, they would have to have planned to vote for McEntire as a pity vote all along. I find it more likely that we just have a few voters who share McEntire's views -- thus, they would be more likely to vote for JayDee than Kaz. Hell, if the election is close enough, even just McEntire and UPC switching their votes to JayDee may be enough to seal the deal for JayDee. Nonetheless, if you voted for McEntire, the EBC would love to hear from you: what made you vote for the McEntire/UPC ticket?

It's also worth noting that turnout has seen somewhat of a slowdown since an initial flurry of activity. Seven hours into the last presidential election, we were at 56 votes (which steadily crept up during later hours to 75). We are now 9.5 hours into this election and have been stuck at 52 for the last hour or two. In addition, the last election opened so late that some European voters went to bed before polls opened, and could only vote later -- this election opened more than four hours earlier, which eliminates that factor. Could the number of votes see a sudden jump? Maybe! However, this either means that there are still many undecided voters out there, or that turnout will be lower for this election, Of course, JayDee would be pretty happy to see the vote count stay exactly as it is, though Kaz could definitely tap into the larger pool of uncommitted voters to execute a rebound.

Ultimately, my personal opinion is that any runoff that happens, barring significant shifts in numbers, will be JayDee's to lose. If I was Kaz right now, I would probably fish for any voters I can get, whether that be through GOTV or finding more endorsements.

HEM · Aug 18, 2023

I would be interested in discussing how much of JayDee's bounce in the polls was (1) the debate or (2) Gem dropping out of the race and endorsing or (3) none of the above?

It does seem like JayDee's stock rose throughout the campaign. He was initially third behind Gem, then became the primary contender to Kazaman, and finally took the lead after Gem dropped out and the debate.

Pland Adanna · Aug 18, 2023

HEM said:
I would be interested in discussing how much of JayDee's bounce in the polls was (1) the debate or (2) Gem dropping out of the race and endorsing or (3) none of the above?

I think Gem dropping out of the race may have been the biggest factor. Even without the endorsement, Gem and JayDee were both occupying the lane of fresh perspective, energetic, long platform, first-time candidates. That said, had Gem stayed in the race, one of them would have likely made the runoff and the other's votes would then have gone to them anyway, assuming this theory holds. I also think that JayDee did an effective job fixing up the vibes of his campaign, and the vibes of a campaign definitely seem to be an underrated metric.

PaleLand · Aug 19, 2023

Liveblog update
JayDee/Pichtonia Votes: 35 53.8%
Kazaman/Comfed Votes: 24 36.9%
McEntire/upc Votes: 6 9.2%
Looks like JayDee might be already preparing his presidential office with 65 votes casted and 3 hours to the end the election. The chances of a runoff/Kazaman win are getting slim to none every minute that passes.

Forilian · Aug 19, 2023

Thank you for that update, @PaleLand ! As votes continue to trickle in, we asked the campaigns for comment again. Unfortunately, the Kazaman/Comfed campaign did not respond to our request for comment (perhaps they are too busy GOTVing for those last votes), but here are the statements from the other two campaigns:

JayDee/Pichtonia:

I’ve been in Kazaman’s position before, the situation is salvageable for him. That’s why I remain committed to earning the support of those on the fence. I’m incredibly grateful for those who have already put their faith in Pichto and I, I hope others will give us the chance to earn the confidence of the region with JayDee/Pichtonia at the helm

McEntire/UPC

It’s clear that myself and upc will not be the winning ticket in this race. Unfortunately, it didn’t go our way this time. But I’m proud of the platform we put together, thankful to upc for running with me, and had a lot of fun in this race! What more could I ask for, honestly?

SkyGreen · Aug 19, 2023

The only question is, will we see Kazaman get 5 more votes for a run-off? Back when Kazaman previously won, there was a few votes coming in with delay that ensured Kaz a first round victory.
After all, five votes is achievable if you are well organized

SkyGreen · Aug 19, 2023

Minor update: The number of votes needed for a run-off is now 4.

[euro538ia] August 2023 Presidential Liveblog

SkyGreen

♅Emerald Emperor⛢

Gem

Official Executive Otter Advisor

Pland Adanna

leaping onward

Forilian

no longer relevant

PaleLand

HEM

former

HEM

former

Forilian

no longer relevant

Prim

Lime

Lime Green At Last

HEM

former

Lime

Lime Green At Last

Forilian

no longer relevant

HEM

former

Pland Adanna

leaping onward

PaleLand

Forilian

no longer relevant

SkyGreen

♅Emerald Emperor⛢

SkyGreen

♅Emerald Emperor⛢