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Op-Ed
Managing Editor
This ENN poll was put into the field prior to the announcement from Lime that he would be seeking the Presidency, so every single matchup was between Peeps and...well, anyone else
While Peeps is no longer running uncontested, these poll results still lay out a powerful case for the current state of the race — including a barometer for any other candidates who may still be considering a run.
Peeps has a solid base to start from, with 59.1% broadly approving him. But he also has his detractors, with 40.9% either unsure, neutral, or disapproving. Time and time again in this poll we see Peeps’ strengths — but we also see some glaring weaknesses.
One of the core problems we’ll identify is that many people are fine with Peeps — or even see him as superior compared to other candidates — but aren’t necessarily excited about him in the abstract. For example, Peeps only captures 50% of the vote in a tied race against “Re-Open Elections.” But he at least holds his own against the overwhelming majority of candidates, demonstrating a potential enthusiasm gap where he is often only people’s pick through comparison.
This may have to do with Peeps’ platform, which so far underwhelms the region. Only 36.4% say that his platform is “very strong” or “strong.”
The Gamechangers
Candidates who would likely upend any race they entered, likely becoming frontrunners
The gamechangers are, on the whole, pretty unlikely candidates — especially since one of them, Calvin Coolidge, is running with Lime. But should any of these giants of politics decide to throw their hat in the ring, they’d likely be the candidate to beat.
Istillian is the strongest matchup against Peeps, getting over 70% of the vote. The perfect blend of new guard, but also experienced, Istillian has been very selective in what roles he has sought since his own First Minister run several months ago.
Calvin Coolidge and Malashaan would also pose existential threats to Peeps’ presidential ambitions — each garnering 63.6% of the vote to Peeps’ 36.4%. They are both old hands, but while the odds of Calvin running seem virtually non-existent, Malashaan is known for last-minute runs — upsetting Sopo in a surprise entry for the final Chief of State election of the split era.
Another theoretical candidate who was whispered about early on is Senate Speaker Darkslayer, who would fetch an impressive 59.1% of the vote against Peeps. Despite a joke platform in the Grand Hall, it seems like he isn’t currently planning a run.
Finally, the least likely of all to throw their hat in the ring (and actually suggested in EuroChat that we were trolling him with these results) is Lethen. But should Lethen run, he would start with an impressive 59.1% of the region behind him.
On the whole, Peeps should be anxious about the wide array of citizens who would start out ahead of him but grateful that his declared opponent is not in this tier of candidates.
The Contenders
Candidates who, right out of the gate, would give Peeps a serious fight
The line between a “game changer” and a “contender” is pretty thin. A lot of it is the polling numbers, but also some of it is my own personal political punditry. For example, Sopo clocks in with 59.1% of the vote against Peeps’ 40.9%. That is the same vote share as Darkslayer of Lethen, but nearly half of that vote is “leaners” and Sopo is a well-liked incumbent. If he is on the borderline, and the power of incumbency can’t lift him above other alternatives, that demonstrates a weakness, or at least a desire for change in the electorate.
Kuramia would also start in the lead with 54.5% of the vote if she ran against Peeps — which is a notable step down from past surveys about Kuramia seeking office.
Recently-returned GraVandius would start out a little behind, but in striking distance with 45.5% of the vote.
Whereas we have two dead-even ties: Peeps against Vice President Monkey, and Peeps against Lime.
Lime’s support tends to be a little older, with his median supporter joining in 2017 while Peeps’ median supporter joined in 2019. Supporters of Lime also tended to disproportionately favor Sopo for President in the last election, while supporters of Peeps tend to disproportionately have favored Lloenflys or McEntire. This suggests that Lime’s support may run through older votes who are still wary of the (kinda) newcomer Peeps, while Peeps has a coalition of younger members more interested in shaking the boat and throwing the wheel to a fresher face.
Peeps may also be struggling with older members who put more value in traditional campaign events like platforms. This puts additional pressure on Lime as he transitions from a theoretical candidate to a real one. It also adds emphasis to the likely debate, where both can reach out behind their current bases.
Other Notes
No other candidates polled seem to break through with our ENN survey respondents. Sopo clocks in with a hot 91% approval rating, but far less people seem eager (or even passively interested) to vote for him for a second term. Which is just as well, because he isn’t running.
VIEW ALL RESULTS HERE
