Election Update: Likely Anumia

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E-News Network - ENN Characterizes race as "Likely Anumia"
Written by HEM Tiberius

The results of this first election cycle polling package really give us a perspective on the mood and feelings of Europeia. Besides the two declared candidates, we also did polling data on political darkhorses and rising stars.

In the race for the Presidency we found that Anumia held 21 votes compared to 9 for Sopo. Professor J. Leno from the EuroUniversity states, "The spread may appear to be mounting, but Anumia cannot lose himself within complacency." Anumia is easily the more prominent of the two, and has held leading positions in all three branches of the government before.

In a time where most people aren't angry at the establishment, this is actually bad news for Sopo. He previously ran during a time of high discontent with the status quo and received strong support, despite his last second bid, because of it.

What is often fun is throwing a popular name into the mix. In a scenario where we threw Pope Lexus X as a candidate for the presidency this election the results where as followed:

Pope Lexus X - 9
Anumia - 14
Sopo - 7

It's surprising to some that Lexus fails to make a huge impact in the race. He narrowly snags second place from Sopo, but Anumia still holds a fairly commanding lead. "If anything helps him sleep tonight, it is the fact that his supporters are strong ones, staying with him even if Lexus threw his hat in the ring." Professor Leno says.

But how strong are they? From the 9 votes Lexus gains, 7 of them came from Anumia and only 2 came from Sopo. Could a strong candidate have potentially ousted Anumia from his frontrunner position?

That question is answered below:

Oliver Grey - 12
Anumia - 13
Sopo - 5

Former President Oliver Grey has rebounded from his lackluster term as President as most people toss memories of the Grey/HEM administration into the history books. Within the last few months sound leadership from the bench has placed the legal veteran and intellectual in a position where a redo of the Presidency would be incredibly possible, even against a candidate as strong as Anumia.

In this scenario Sopo loses 4 votes compared to 8 from Anumia. "This indicates that Anumia's base is around 13ish votes," Professor Josh Lyman from Harvard University comments, "There seem be around ten people out there who are looking for something 'else', while 5 or so voters are committed to Sopo."

But what of our Vice President?

Anumia - 14
Sopo- 5
Jusduckria - 11

The end result is basically the Lexus matchup except that Sopo loses more votes and Anumia loses less. Jus does an excellent job running close to Anumia and would've ran a strong campaign based off of these numbers. A future run may prove to be too tempting to resist.

Other Information

- President PhDre ends with a 75/78% approval rating (first number with outliers, second one excluding outliers)

- Jerrymania only received one vote in his poll, it was subtracted from Anumia's total.

More than 10 - 2
10 (current) - 7
9 - 6
8 - 5
7 - 9
Less than 7 - 1

Without a doubt most people believe we need less Senate seats with a slim plurality believing the right numbers is seven.

- 7 voters believe the current election system is effective, 8 disagree, and 15 are uncertain.
 
In that case, an outlier was a sole 0 ranking, with the next lowest ranking being a 60.
 
That's a slightly arbitrary way of rejecting values as outliers. It may represent an honestly disappointed citizen, who in his frustration went for the extreme option and voted 0 instead of, say, 30. Also, if the highest vote is a 100 and the next highest is an 80, what is to say that the 100 is not an outlier?

You should probably use the median instead of the mean, as the median is not affected by extreme values to such a large extent as the mean. You should also report the standard deviation, as a high standard deviation means that the mean is useless.

Alternatively, and as I argued elsewhere, political polls should be run with a scale such as:

-strongly approve;
-approve;
-neither approve, nor disapprove;
-disapprove;
strongly disapprove.

These, in turn, can be translated into intervals 0-20, 20-40, 40-60, 60-80, and 80-100, from which you can extract a more reliable mean. The reason why such a mean is more reliable is that it is hard to evaluate a person's performance on such a fine scale as 0-100 with increments of 10, which results in the "measurements", i.e. people's votes, being "noisy, i.e. inaccurate. It is the precision-noise trade-off: a very noisy measurement of high precision is usually at most as useful as a not-so-noisy but of lower precision measurement.
 
What's odd is that every single poll I've ever done in the history of ENN has been done as such. Why I differed this time is uncertain.
 
Professor J. Leno from the EuroUniversity states

I have no knowledge of this 'Professor' and the EuroUniversity is not affiliated with him, HEM or this newspaper. :ph43r:

By the way, remind me to crush this minuscule village newspaper when it ceases to amuse me in its futility, please. :lol:
 
Professor J. Leno from the EuroUniversity states

I have no knowledge of this 'Professor' and the EuroUniversity is not affiliated with him, HEM or this newspaper. :ph43r:

By the way, remind me to crush this minuscule village newspaper when it ceases to amuse me in its futility, please. :lol:
Your newspaper consist of threads where people respond to questions, instead of real posted 'interviews' and polls that are done badly.

Somehow I think crushing us would be more of a challenge. :violentgun:
 
Ooh! There's a real media war! HEM, you're Bill O'Reilly, and Swak that makes you Keith Olbermann. I know, no one wants to be Olbermann, but if we're going to have a proper media war we need one...
 
Somehow I think crushing us would be more of a challenge. :violentgun:
Good point. I might crush that old rag of Jerrymania's first, and then I'll work on the ENN.

Swak that makes you Keith Olbermann. I know, no one wants to be Olbermann, but if we're going to have a proper media war we need one...

:angry:
 
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