RADIO NEWS Episode 2:
Special Election Analysis Episode
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[HIDE=Transcript]Hello and welcome to a special election analysis edition of EBC Radio News. I'm your host, Gustavus Adolphus Rex, and boy, do we have quite a lot of ground to cover.
Possibly one of the biggest electoral upsets in recent Europeian memory occurred today when Apollo, after stating quite clearly at first that he did not want to run for the Senate, then changed his mind, and came from behind to first tie incumbent Senators Drexlore and Gustavus and then defeat Drexlore, but not Gustavus, at nearly the last minute.
Why is this? Well, one suggestion put forward by Common-Sense Politics during the election was that Drexlore had a weak term. The fact that Apollo defeated Drexlore by only one vote appears to disprove this notion, because if people greatly disapproved of Drexlore's job in the Senate, then they would have given him a lot less votes, and incumbents Gustavus and McEntire also received healthy support. Therefore, something else must explain what happened. After an analysis of both candidates' platforms, one possible factor (other than luck) becomes clear. Drexlore's platform, in a season of candidates, experienced or not, who had various legislative proposals going forward, talks about the accomplishments of the previous term and which current bills he supports, after which he says, quote, "As for any legislation that I currently want to put fourth, there is none at the moment. This may change down the line but as for now, nothing."
Meanwhile, while Apollo had an uphill battle due to controversy surrounding his resignation as Grand Admiral in the previous term, in his platform, he not only emphasized his previous experience and hard work throughout Europeia and his willingness to stay on, apparently deflecting criticism on that front enough for voters to want to give him another opportunity to prove himself, but also differentiated himself from the other Senatorial candidates, excepting Cerian Quilor, by opposing the popular election of the Senate Speaker. Therefore, while stating that Drexlore rested on his laurels may be too strong a phrase, a reasonable conclusion that can be drawn from this evidence is that Apollo simply managed to out-campaign Drexlore by making his platform stand out, and as a result garner a win by the skin of his teeth.
One important trend to notice from this election is that, whereas the previous Senate except for McEntire was composed entirely of people who held government positions of some sort, leading to criticisms of executive control over the Senate agenda that seem to have been unfounded, the EBC predicts that the only overlap will occur with Gustavus and Shadowlurker staying on in the Cabinet next term. McEntire will probably devote a lot of his time to his award winning newspaper the Euro-Whig Picayune and to his current duties as Speaker. And unless they express a desire to do otherwise, Apollo, Cerian, and Remsol will probably focus on the Senate. This, however, will probably not lead to major opposition to, for instance, newly reelected President Vinage's Cabinet or Justice nominations (aside from, after what happened with Apollo's confirmation, more probative questions from the Senate). The only way this would happen is if something that Vinage proposes comes completely out of left field and antagonizes the Senate, which is unlikely given Vinage's strong and moderate agenda as outlined by his platform.
The other thing to watch for as the new Senate comes together is that Apollo and Cerian, along with PhDre and Swakistek through their permanent Senate speaking invitations via the Citizens' Assembly will come together to argue vigorously against the passage of the provision of the Midterm Elections Act that will popularly elect the Speaker, likely reiterating previous points that the Speaker elections are fine as is, and that this change will not significantly benefit the Senate. If supporters Gustavus, McEntire, Remsol, and Shadowlurker remain firmly in support of the bill, then they will have the votes to pass it and President Vinage's likely support will ensure passage into law after that point. But supporters may moderate their positions, although they are unlikely to want to withdraw the Act, depending on discussion by the public and the results of a new poll that was just released in the Grand Hall by EuroPoll.
Meanwhile, now that the Citizens Assembly, a major focus of last term, has been created, public attention will shift to the Senate during debate over this bill and others (including the University Charter, which is predicted to pass without much opposition), as well as to Vinage's second, slightly less hands-off administration as it proposes and implements many of its policy objectives with the speed and efficiency that the Executive has become known for. Vinage's primary goals are likely to be making up for losses in population and cementing the gains made by all the other Ministries last term.
Returning to the Citizens' Assembly, as said, without much more power than what the City Council had vis a vis the Senate aside from its speaking privileges (after a controversial public inquiry proposal was dropped from the act that created it), the Assembly will likely remain in the Senate's shadow. But if Swakistek returns to major activity, quickly wraps up the internal ordinances he had planned to accomplish earlier, and whips the Assemblymen back into activity, he may make the Citizens' Assembly a popular political forum that may rival even the Grand Hall, and the Senate will then need to listen to it for the public pulse on issues it discusses. At the same time the Judiciary will remain mostly quiet unless a controversial case pops up for some reason or a major effort is made to revive the Judicial Training Centre.
And just a brief blurb about NationStates news: remember that idiotic bee-keeping resolution that we voted against? Well, turns out it passed, and now the General Assembly is going down a slippery slope...first they regulate our bees, and now they're just getting to repealing the misspelled and poorly written "A s s i t a n c e Givers Protection" 119 resolutions after it was passed.
And the Security Council just repealed Condemn Sedgistan, which lacked actual reasons for condemning him and was, quote, "drafted after an agreement between Crazy Girl and Sedgistan, where it was agreed upon that Sedgistan would draft a commendation for Crazy Girl and in turn receive a condemnation," 49 resolutions later. Sigh. If we, through the Citizens' Assembly, don't propose resolutions that are actually good, but just rely on Elias Greyjoy and Mousebumples, then most of Delegate Vinage's time will be spent voting futilely against a mountain of drivel. But hopefully, next week, things will improve somewhat.
This is Gustavus, signing off for EBC Radio News. See you this Wednesday![/HIDE]
