EBC Post-Election Poll Results




EBC Post-Election Poll Results
Close election reinforces enduring divides in region
Written by McEntire








(Europeia - April 13, 2017) - After a closely contested election between two highly-qualified citizens, an EBC poll showed that Europeians continue to be divided along lines of older/newer members, as well as on policy priorities. While older members and those who prioritized Foreign Affairs broke strongly for Common-Sense Politics, it was not enough to overcome now-President Calvin Coolidge's strength among newer members, which propelled him to a 52.2 percent victory among high turnout.

Top Line


The first round of questions reveals that there was little movement between the general election and the run-off, which is reflected in the election results. The general election saw a Calvin lead of 44-39-6, while the runoff saw a Calvin victory of 47-43. The EBC poll is not indicative of the results of the election, however, which can most likely be attributed to the high number of older members who participated in the survey. Furthermore, while the Kaboom/Rand ticket received 6 votes in the actual general election, they only saw one vote in our poll.

When we break down the numbers in the run-off voting, the divides start to emerge. In the second round, poll participants who arrived from 2015-present voted for Calvin Coolidge by 66 percent, with CSP garnering 25 percent and one respondent saying they didn't vote. In contrast, members who arrived 2014 or before voted nearly 69 percent for CSP, with 31 percent of older poll respondents choosing Calvin.

Euro was split with these two experienced members.

Wish we had some new choices

Boom, buddy, stop shooting your campaigns in the foot. All your stuff was so good, but when you dropped the ball, you dropped it hard. For CSP, run again, please. You will be President again. Cat, you will be President one day, I know you will.

Political Parties


The second round of questions reveals that there was likely little impact of parties on the political process. A whopping 86 percent of poll respondents either don't belong to a party, belong to a party that didn't endorse, or didn't vote for the candidate that their party endorsed. What these numbers do not tell us, however, is if party affiliation swung any votes from one candidate to another. While that is a possibility, both the numbers and the commentary seem to say that once again, the story of political parties in the presidential election is that there is no story.

Doesn't affect [expletive].

I was unsure if I should make a public endorsement on a personal level, as my party did not endorse. Also, I had a party member on the ticket I did not vote for, which also made me not sure if I should publicly endorse.

The only party using any little bit of muscle is the FEP and that's simply Rach telling her noobs who to vote for.

It's good that the SC's encouraged players to declare party affiliations

I didn't even look to see who was endorsed by which party

Very little effect, what with one going to hell in a handbasket, the other not endorsing, and the third being super new.

Issues


Many members expressed that this election, for them, was about foreign affairs and policy. The data bears out that citizens saw FA as an important issue, but not the defining issue of the election. Had FA truly defined the election, CSP would have been the victor. Participants who regarded FA as the most important issue voted for CSP by a margin of 69 percent to 31 percent. While CSP was effective in defining himself as an expert in foreign affairs, voters weren't as definitive on whether or not that was the issue of this election.

While interior was what I cared about most, I don't think the candidate I voted for had the superior interior platform.

BRING ME THE STATES PLEASE

twas WA

Other - Foreign Affairs & Discord server proliferation/usage

Debates and VP Choices


The final group of questions reveals that the debates may have had an impact on the election, while the choices of running mates likely did not. After the radio and text debates, Calvin Coolidge saw a nearly 11 percent swing in his favor, according to our results. While it's difficult to say with certainty that the debates tipped the election towards Calvin, contrasting the election results with pre-election polling shows a swing in his favor in the final days of the campaign. While the number of votes potentially swung by the debates wasn't large, it may have been enough to push Calvin over the line in a tight contest.

The poll also shows broad satisfaction with the VP choices this election, with over 90 percent of respondents saying that the running mates were either a plus for them or had no effect.

I ordered the salmon. This wedding is horseshit!

I think the FEP helped with the result a little. Without them I think the vote would be a lot closer. This was a great election, and either way, everyone won.

Picking Rand as VP = Eh, not the best idea. Best of Luck to Calvin though!

Why not Zoidberg?

It was a very close election with two excellent tickets. I slightly favored CSP because I thought his FA platform was more ambitious and potentially transformative.

In the final summation, this post-election poll shows a region that has differing opinions based on their length of tenure in the region and which priorities they place at the top of the list. Europeians seem energized by this election, buoyed by the widespread view that this was an election with two solid candidates. Comments included "everyone won", "excellent tickets", and "why not Zoidberg?".

Another election is passed, and the work of governing begins. The greatest challenge for the new President may be reaching beyond his young base and bringing the region together around his initiatives. Only time will tell if he is successful.
 
Great work on this, McEntire!

It is interesting to see how the voting played out compared to the polls prior to the election.
 
It reminds me in many ways of a similar poll I did after the super-close Kraken/NK election. Thanks for the polling and analysis!
 
Maybe I'm dense, but why do the two pie charts for voting in Round 1 and Round 2 when comparing new and old voting patterns look identical and seem to clash with the actual vote tallies between Round 1 and Round 2?
 
Lethen said:
Maybe I'm dense, but why do the two pie charts for voting in Round 1 and Round 2 when comparing new and old voting patterns look identical and seem to clash with the actual vote tallies between Round 1 and Round 2?
Sorry, that was potentially confusing. The vote tallies that I laid out there were the actual election results, not the poll results.

And the reason that the two pie charts look the same is that the movement of poll respondents was a wash. There was some movement, but it created the same net result.
 
It might be useful not to just go with the visualisations by Google but instead use better data presentation apps or software.
 
hyanygo said:
It might be useful not to just go with the visualisations by Google but instead use better data presentation apps or software.
Tried it once and "butchered" it.

Good job McEntire.
 
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