Do larger Senates have more turnover?






Raw Data
DateSenate SizeBy-Elections (Individual Seats)

14-Apr
60

14-Jan
61 (1)

13-Dec
60 (0)

13-Sep
61 (2)

13-Jul
50

13-Apr
51 (2)

13-Feb
50

12-Dec
52 (2)

12-Nov
61 (1)

12-Aug
62 (2)

12-Jul
61 (1)

12-Jun
61 (1)

12-Apr
71 (1)

12-Feb
71 (3)

11-Dec
62 (2)

11-Oct
63 (4)

11-Aug
63 (3)

11-Jun
62 (3)

11-Apr
82 (3)

11-Feb
63 (6)

10-Dec
81 (2)

10-Oct
83 (4)

10-Aug
82 (3)

10-Jun
101 (2)

10-Apr
102 (2)

10-Feb
92 (2)

09-Dec
91 (1)

09-Nov
90

09-Sep
92 (2)

09-Jul
81 (2)

09-May
81 (1)

09-Mar
83 (4)

09-Jan
81 (1)

08-Nov
80

08-Sep
81 (1)

08-Jul
71 (1)

08-May
71 (1)

08-Mar
70

08-Jan
73 (5)

07-Nov
71 (1)

07-Sep
71 (1)

07-Aug
71 (2)

07-Jul
50

07-Jul
51 (1)




Europeia has had many Senate By-Elections. In fact, the very first Senate even had a by-election. For this raw data, I've gone back and looked at every single Senate By-Election for every term. The number outside the parenthesis is how many By-Elections there were and the number in the parenthesis is how many seats were replaced. Unfortunately this does not give us the entire story when it comes to resignations and inactivity. Sometimes seats become available so close to the general election that a by-election is not run. To get that data would be extremely difficult. Secondly, different terms have had different levels of activism when it came to activity.

However, it does give us some idea on the amount of turnover in the Senate over it's history.

Number of By-Elections# TermsPercentage out of all the terms
0818.1%
12147.7%
2920.4%
3613.6%


Treating all terms as equal, you have just over half chance of having one senate by-election during any given senate term. There is an 81.9% chance that the term will have at least one by-election. Not the greatest method for this but pretty fun.

Number of Seats Available# TermsPercentage out of all the terms
0818.1%
11431.8%
21227.2%
3511.3%
436.8%
512.2%
612.2%


A little bit different, this looks at the number of seats available during by-elections during a senate term. We've only had 5 & 6 once. The chance of having 4 or more seats available is 11.2% if you treat all terms as equal.

Size of the SenateTerms of that Senate sizeNumber of By-ElectionsAverage Number of By-Elections
5640.66
613201.54
79101.43
810151.5
9451.25
10231.5


For many of these, it's also a question as to the political activity at the time. Many of these are very small sample sizes. However, most seem to be in a similar range with the exception of having a 5 person senate which had the lowest amount of by-elections by far.

Size of the SenateTerms of that Senate sizeNumber of Seats Available in By-ElectionsAverage Number of Seats Available
5661
613262
79151.66
810212.1
9451.25
10242


No real changes here. There doesn't seem to be a clear increase in Senate turnover based on the sample sizes with the exception of the 5. However, what we aren't taking into account is the amount of political activity at the time and the standard to which the senate was held. For example, when we had 5 senators these were generally eras of more book keeping and less political activity in general. Could that be a reason why the turnover was lower? As well... it's a larger percentage of the Senate size when even 1 member goes inactive or resigns.

A Sad Reminder

How cool would it be to look at the Ministry turnover over time? Unfortunately, records like these aren't kept in their own place. Looking for them would be a really difficult task. So a lot of these sorts of stats remain out our reach because of a lack of book-keeping (but who can blame the book keepers really). However, I'm trying to collect the posting stats by month of Europeia during it's history. I'm hoping to compare them to the Senate Sizes which could be interesting. Hope you all enjoyed this!

Fun Facts

- The Senate term of Feb 2011 had a by-election in which 3 Senators were replaced. The largest single by-election in terms of seats replacing.
- May 30th 2010 was the last election titled "By-Election: Senate"
- October 25th 2009 Senate By-Election had 7 people running for 1 seat. Fliyan was on the ballot despite being banned and this was noted on the ballot. Strangely the previous by-election that term had 2 people running for one seat.
- Nov 6th 2007 Senate By-Election had 9 people running for the 1 seat previously held by Lethens wife Paleomiz. The September election for that term had seen 12 people running for 7 seats. Strong interest remained strong?

 
I totally forgot to add this but in the 9 times Europeia has had a Senate that had 7 seats, it's only gone once without a by-election. That gives us, based on a small sample size and not including a myriad of other factors.... an 85.7% chance of having a by-election. This is an increase of 4.4%.
 
- Nov 6th 2007 Senate By-Election had 9 people running for the 1 seat previously held by Lethens wife Paleomiz.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

I am sure Lethen will love to read that*

*Lethen was never married to Paleomiz.
 
Rach said:
Oh really? I could have sworn he was. The way they interacted made it seem like they were ;)
Paleomiz was married to Verteger / Jamhug / Andronicus, who was Lethen's father. She was also our original psycho (albeit at times a hardworking one).
 
Little do you know... I've been cooking these numbers for a few terms now to ensure that they support my arguments.... having people run and resign... or advising on the size of the senates. All in the name of stats.
 
modernsin said:

...and my response to this is the same:

Anumia said:
From the title onward though I cannot help but feel this is a case of suggesting that a larger tank would catch more rain, though.

and:

Anumia said:
The larger a Cabinet is, the larger the chance of a resignation for any reason, since there are more people available to resign. Likewise a larger Senate would have a greater chance to see a resignation for same, and so on.

...you might say I called it. :p
 
The real question is, why do people always use raw data instead of proportions when comparing the turnover rates of differently-sized Cabinets/Senates? flail.gif It's a pretty small extra step to take when presenting your stats, y'all. Calculating proportional adjustments is so easy even English majors can do it. :baghead:

They do the same thing in RL politics all the time too. "omg the US has more gun-related deaths than England!" And we also have six times more people than they do. But I'll save this argument for one of Chuck's threads.
 
Even when we've adjusted for population, the US has about 5 times the intentional homicide rate. So yeah, the US is pretty f--ked up.
 
Yeeeah MS you knew exactly what can of worms you were opening, dick. :p

I appreciate Rachel using raw data because at the least, it puts her one step ahead of Unibot's statistics.
 
Yeah, you don't even need statistics to figure out that the US has more gun violence in general. That wasn't my point at all.

Yeeeah MS you knew exactly what can of worms you were opening, dick.
No, honestly I thought people would have their fill of gun-bashing in Chuck's various threads on the subject. I guess I should've known not to go on a tangent to illustrate a relevant point, because people always go for the tangent instead. This is how every single Republic Square thread gets derailed by page 2. :p
 
Im with the "Never trust a statistic you didnt fake yourself"-people anyways.
 
hyanygo said:
Even when we've adjusted for population, the US has about 5 times the intentional homicide rate. So yeah, the US is pretty f--ked up.
Nah, we're all right.
 
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