December 2020 Platform Poll Results and Analysis
Written by Monkey
Written by Monkey
Published 7 December 2020
Preface:
This was a poll (n=30) that ran for roughly 24 hours, to gain an initial sense into the election. Previous media outlets have covered platform polls, but this is the first one that measures the race with the new presidential candidate, Calvin Coolidge, running after his previous ticket with Darkslayer unstood.
Graphs:
Currently, Pichtonia is able to win the election, getting 57% of the vote, putting him above the 50% threshold needed. Pichtonia received 17 votes to Calvin's 12 (40%). 15 was the 50% cutoff for this poll.
Let's assume that 66 voters vote in this presidential election, and that these numbers hold. A ticket would need a majority to win, meaning 34 votes. To make the math easier, I did not consider the undecided voter.
If the current numbers hold, we would see a Pichtonia victory with 39 (57%) votes to Calvin's 27 (40%), a 12 vote difference.
Once again, assuming 66 votes and the current voters are decided and will vote on election day, Calvin would need to win an additional 22 voters to put him above the majority. This means Calvin needs to win 61% of the remaining vote, or increasing his 40% vote share to 60%.
For Pichtonia to win, he just needs a situation in which he gains 17 more votes, or doubles the amount of votes cast in this poll. Pichtonia needs to win 47.1% of the remaining vote for a victory.
This is probably the most interesting graph by far. As you can see, Pichto and Kuramia do extremely well in the middle age brackets, dominating some of the middle brackets completely, but fail to pick up any voters in the extremes. Calvin and Sopo pick up voters here, with the biggest success being in the 5+ year bracket.
Another pretty interesting graph. It looks like not all hope is lost for the Calvin/Sopo campaign, as many of the Pichtonia leaning voters who reside in the middle of the age spectrum are mostly leaning or strong supporters - still a possibility of them switching their votes. For the most part, it looks like the older citizens in this region have already decided where there vote will go. Note that the four candidates themselves lie in those categories, so if they took the poll, that's where their votes would go.
I'm not sure if there are any big conclusions that can be drawn from the data, as everything is pretty close. I think we can see the same trend that we saw in the less graph though, Pichtonia voters, who are concentrated in the middle of the age spectrum, are also less decided. We see that the categories of strong/leaning support have more Pichtonia voters, while Calvin does a little better in having supporters that are stronger supporters. Again, this graph is really too close for one candidate to draw anything big from it.
Pretty standard and boring results, so I won't really discuss them. Both platforms do better than the previous election. Most of the unsatisfied responses came from those who supported the opposing candidate, so since Pichtonia had more 'voters' in this poll, it made sense that Calvin had a smidge more dissatisfied responses.
Interestingly, Calvin beats Pichtonia in Culture and Navy oriented voters, while Pichtonia beats Calvin in Foreign Affairs and Communications oriented voters. There doesn't seem to be a huge difference in the tickets between where domestic oriented voters flock to vs foreign oriented voters, but overall the responses show that more citizens have domestic priorities in mind when voting.
Some of these make sense -- Calvin is the current Culture minister, and the Pichtonia ticket is an FA powerhouse. Even Communications can be explained through Pichtonia's running mate, Kuramia, who is known for campaigning on the issue of dispatches. However, it's interesting that Calvin wins out against Pichtonia in Navy-focused voters, despite Pichtonia's ticket being heavily involved in foreign affairs.
TL;DR: Pichtonia is favored to win the election, but his voters may be less 'certain' of who exactly their vote will go to on election day. Pichtonia also sees more support in the middle of the age spectrum, with Calvin dominating both extremely young and old voters.
