[Arnhelm Alt] POLL RESULTS: JayDee Beats RoE, Generic Beats JayDee

McEntire

McEntire

Well-known member
Pronouns
she/her
The Arnhelm Alternative.png


JayDee Beats Re-Open Elections, Generic Candidate Beats JayDee
​
The presidential election coming up in two days may just be another lesson in the same old maxim: you can't beat somebody with nobody. Buoyed by majority 59.3% approval, JayDee is vulnerable to a challenge, but voters are not so dissatisfied with him that they're willing to roll the dice and re-open elections. At least, that's according to this poll. This flash poll ran for 24 hours and had 27 responses.

The Bad News for JayDee

So to start out, the bad news for JayDee. In an initial test, only 37% say he deserves to be re-elected.

Forms response chart. Question title: Do you think JayDee should be re-elected?. Number of responses: 27 responses.
Even worse for JayDee, he loses to an unnamed "Generic Other Candidate":

Forms response chart. Question title: If the election were today (and it almost is), who would you vote for?. Number of responses: 27 responses.
JayDee retains his base, though, through the two ballot tests - and that base seems to be somewhere around 1/3 of the region. That's a pretty high floor. There are some undecideds who would definitively vote for another candidate. However, in the universe we live in, "Generic Other Candidate" doesn't exist!

The Danger for the Dee is that if a credible candidate launched a last-minute bid, they'd also have a solid base to target - 1/4 of the region that's actively opposed to JayDee and another slice of the electorate that could be persuaded with the right candidate.

And who do the people want as their champion? Voters' candidate wish-lists were long, but the leading names were Kazaman and PhDre, each with 8 mentions. The following names received mention:

Kazaman (8)
PhDre (8)
upc (5)
Sanjurika (4)
Gem (3)
HEM (3)
Lloenflys (3)
Calvin (2)
Maowi (2)
Kuramia (2)
Elio (2)
Pichtonia (2)
McEntire (2)
Forilian
ICH
Vor
Sopo
Istillian
SkyGreen
Rand
"Anyone who would bite"
"myself but I'd also need to magic wand some free time"

The Good News for JayDee

Now for the good news for the President! No one in that long list is running, nor even openly considering it. And he does have majority approval (albeit pretty low by historical comparison):

Forms response chart. Question title: Do you approve or disapprove of the job JayDee has done as President?. Number of responses: 27 responses.

​
And that approval hold strong when it comes to facing off against his current opponent, Re-Open Elections:

Forms response chart. Question title: If the election were today (and it almost is), who would you vote for?. Number of responses: 27 responses.

​
This suggests that there is some slice of voters - maybe 20% - who softly approve of JayDee, or at least aren't mad enough at him to re-open elections, but could easily be tempted by another candidate. While these results may set tongues wagging among potential candidates, it may be too late for someone to launch a serious bid.

Still, with 37% voting for Re-Open Elections already, JayDee is not in a great spot. Barring anything unforeseen, he has the edge over RoE and no clear opposition in sight. But this is Europeia after all, and the unforeseen is seen quite frequently.

Things are quiet and not in a good way

dee has been fine

Nobody is running because they either don't have time or don't want to go against a wartime president.

JayDee has done a good job (maybe even better than expected) but wish we had a campaign that could push him on the places where he fell short.

zzzzzzz

Surprising that the region seems poised to hand the first post-merge President since Writinglegend a second term
 
Thanks for putting this together, Mac! I’ll admit these results are disappointing after everything this administration had to endure at times. However, they’re also rather predictable cause I’m equally disappointed in this term. This administration has been working very hard but some things just weren’t clicking and we weren’t generating enough interest.

Staff engagement was rather poor and I think that’s due to us not getting enough buy in from people in our projects. These are things I’ve noticed and I’ve addressed in our platform. I encourage people to please ask questions and challenge our ideas, this is your region too and you deserve to have your concerns heard.

I hope I’m given another chance to lead this region, I feel really optimistic about what this new team has to offer. To leave things now would leave a really sour taste in my mouth when I know there’s more that I can do/offer.
 
I am here to announce ... that I ... am ready ... to NOT challenge JayDee! Like McEntire, I have run several campaigns previously to prevent a single candidate presidential election (heck, I even won one of them - sorry OD ... and came within a double tiebreak of winning another), but my heart would not be in this one and that wouldn't be good for the region or for me. Thank you to my 3 fans out there (I can only presume it was my embrace of commissions that caused all this love).

Now, as for JayDee - I do not think his presidency has been perfect (no one's is), but I do think it has been very solid in a very difficult time. JayDee has stepped up and done some very challenging work on behalf of our region, and I'm happy to say that while I didn't get a chance to vote in this poll, I am solidly in the "vote for JayDee" camp. I think anyone who waited this long to run and then decided to do so because JayDee's poll numbers look a little soft wouldn't likely have put in the kind of thought necessary to have a solid plan for the presidency, so I would almost certainly rule out voting for such a candidate. And if no one else ran, I think it would be sort of silly to vote for ROE in this case, especially if it was just a protest against a single candidate election. JayDee has done a good job, and I will be happy to vote for him even if I would prefer a competitive election just as a matter of principle.
 
I think it's almost impossible for RoE to win an election, so JayDee should be sleeping relatively easily. The broader concern is whether the concerns expressed here by (imo) the more engaged citizens / respondents can be addressed in the coming term. Broadly consistent w/ the EBC poll, but I thought the "draft player X" question was amusing here - even if I'm mostly just surprised I ended up at the top of the pile. And to clarify, I don't anticipate running a campaign for the Friday Presidential Election !
 
Lloenflys said:
I am here to announce ... that I ... am ready ... to NOT challenge JayDee! Like McEntire, I have run several campaigns previously to prevent a single candidate presidential election (heck, I even won one of them - sorry OD ... and came within a double tiebreak of winning another), but my heart would not be in this one and that wouldn't be good for the region or for me. Thank you to my 3 fans out there (I can only presume it was my embrace of commissions that caused all this love).

Now, as for JayDee - I do not think his presidency has been perfect (no one's is), but I do think it has been very solid in a very difficult time. JayDee has stepped up and done some very challenging work on behalf of our region, and I'm happy to say that while I didn't get a chance to vote in this poll, I am solidly in the "vote for JayDee" camp. I think anyone who waited this long to run and then decided to do so because JayDee's poll numbers look a little soft wouldn't likely have put in the kind of thought necessary to have a solid plan for the presidency, so I would almost certainly rule out voting for such a candidate. And if no one else ran, I think it would be sort of silly to vote for ROE in this case, especially if it was just a protest against a single candidate election. JayDee has done a good job, and I will be happy to vote for him even if I would prefer a competitive election just as a matter of principle.
Click to expand...
You're not sorry
 
Olde Delaware said:
Lloenflys said:
I am here to announce ... that I ... am ready ... to NOT challenge JayDee! Like McEntire, I have run several campaigns previously to prevent a single candidate presidential election (heck, I even won one of them - sorry OD ... and came within a double tiebreak of winning another), but my heart would not be in this one and that wouldn't be good for the region or for me. Thank you to my 3 fans out there (I can only presume it was my embrace of commissions that caused all this love).

Now, as for JayDee - I do not think his presidency has been perfect (no one's is), but I do think it has been very solid in a very difficult time. JayDee has stepped up and done some very challenging work on behalf of our region, and I'm happy to say that while I didn't get a chance to vote in this poll, I am solidly in the "vote for JayDee" camp. I think anyone who waited this long to run and then decided to do so because JayDee's poll numbers look a little soft wouldn't likely have put in the kind of thought necessary to have a solid plan for the presidency, so I would almost certainly rule out voting for such a candidate. And if no one else ran, I think it would be sort of silly to vote for ROE in this case, especially if it was just a protest against a single candidate election. JayDee has done a good job, and I will be happy to vote for him even if I would prefer a competitive election just as a matter of principle.
Click to expand...
You're not sorry
Click to expand...

I'm ... at least a little bit sorry :oops:
 
Should I come out of retirement and run for president? One person says yes...
 
"Generic Other Candidate" polls are very tough to interpret well because it's not the same person that everyone is envisioning. Everyone is sort of envisioning their own hypothetical competitor so JayDee has to compete against all possible alternatives. Once someone actually hops in the race, the uncertainty in that hypothetical collapses and the support for "Generic other candidate" doesn't end up at the same level.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top