[ARN ALT] Flash Poll: RoE Edging JayDee, Other Ticket Rumors Abound

McEntire

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Flash Poll: RoE Edging JayDee, Other Ticket Rumors Abound

Forms response chart. Question title: Who will you vote for?. Number of responses: 25 responses.

In the Arnhelm Alternative's super-quick flash poll, we find RoE mercilessly edging JayDee/Vor by a margin of just three respondents. This result is probably in the poll's margin of error, if we could be bothered to calculate that sort of thing. Unfortunately, our polling department consists of one rhesus monkey that we taught to use Google Forms and Sheets.

When it came to asking if people have heard of these so-called "alternate tickets" who are planning to run if RoE wins, responses varied from 3-4 tickets to "[y]eah not answering this." You can see all of these comments below:

3
Haven’t heard of any, but would say “post your platform ASAP!”
McEntire
2
🤫😉
3
3
1
Yeah not answering this.
possibly up to 3 additional.
One other one, but sworn to secrecy
Shouldn’t say
2
well i saw 2 but then it was 1 again
3
zero
4
2

Will these results fuel rumors of alternate tickets and contribute to RoE? Or are people ready to hand JayDee a third term, given his stepped-up visibility in the second half of the term? We'll find out tomorrow, one way or the other!
 

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Pretty interesting! I have to believe that when the race actually occurs Re-Open Elections will likely underperform unless there's some real excitement behind any of the alternative options, and people unfamiliar with the race are unlikely to vote for ROE, but this is uncharted territory, so who knows, really!
 
I must say I'm rather surprised by these results myself and actually find them to be quite favorable. That being said, Vor and I don't intend to rest on our laurels, if RoE wins then the other candidates should expect a fight.

If our ticket wins, I think that is as strong a mandate as winning in a competitive election given we overcame the combination of people who want competitive elections, want anyone but JayDee, OR prefer one of the individuals who've already declared. It's great to see such passion in our election again, it gives me a lot of optimism for the upcoming Senate election and even the next Presidential election, where the field may be more open.
 
It's great to see such passion in our election

I personally wouldn't be seeing passion in our elections, considering we've had two uncontested elections in a row.

I think rather than cheerfully breezing past this we should be asking ourselves real questions about the structures of our governance and our electoral systems, and get to the why(s) behind this now repeated event.

As a Voter, my expectation of any Presidential candidate, and indeed serving President, is that they'd on top of these issues and contributing their time and energy towards finding a solution.

Optimism and hope have their place - action though is vitally required, especially now.
 
If our ticket wins, I think that is as strong a mandate as winning in a competitive election given we overcame the combination of people who want competitive elections, want anyone but JayDee, OR prefer one of the individuals who've already declared. It's great to see such passion in our election again, it gives me a lot of optimism for the upcoming Senate election and even the next Presidential election, where the field may be more open.

I definitely think that it makes sense for the candidate who runs unopposed in back to back elections to pitch beating RoE twice as a political victory but, from the outside in, it doesn't really pass the smell test. I also think that it is the case that these are relatively promising numbers given that JayDee is underwater in every head to head match-up polled (remember, the only poll that matters is on election day).

I have said it before this election cycle, but Presidential candidates who face RoE start from a worse political position precisely because there is no opposing vision that you "win" against. RoE is a messy, "break glass in case of Democratic Emergency" button. RoE faces significant headwinds - the announced candidates are frankly not top tier (no one from the Smokin' Poll with significant support has expressed that they will run in a RoE triggered election). Somehow CSP and (no offense 🧌) Lloen see as much interest from respondents as the incumbent in the Smokin' Poll - in of itself that's pretty remarkable and suggests weakness rather than strength going into the election (caveat that poll timing matters and the Smokin' Poll occured just after a low point in the Administration, and various Ministries have improved since then).

Beating RoE is not particularly impressive - no Presidential candidate has ever lost to RoE before. RoE got 30% last election - if it improves on that how can it be anything but a disappointment? For our institutions, it certainly is a dissapointment to see RoE twice. IMO if I were JayDee I would be trying to find a punching bag to run against or want to face opponents in a RoE victory.

Thinking back to our previous three consecutive term Presidents, we have Writinglegend and Anumia. Writinglegend needs no introduction - but iirc Anumia actually ran a recall vote against themselves to solidify political power during their Presidential term. Beating RoE twice is definitely how to serve 210 days, but I'm not sure it's mandate territory. (I'm not sure if Anumia did that during their three term run, but it's certainly a contrast in how to "win" a mandate versus claiming it by beating no-body).

My guess is that JayDee will win - perhaps not super comfortably - and RoE will improve on its previous performance. That is IMO the worst case for the JayDee mandate. To be frank I do think it's also good that there isn't anything revolutionary in the platform because we'd have to spend the next 70 days arguing about whether a particular outcome gives a mandate for very significant modifications to our regional institutions. :p

I think rather than cheerfully breezing past this we should be asking ourselves real questions about the structures of our governance and our electoral systems, and get to the why(s) behind this now repeated event.
If there are so few people willing to serve the office of President then we should consider reform, for sure. It's not worth putting significant expectations on players only to beat them up when no one else wants the job. At the same time, I do think this is frankly a bad sign for Europeian democracy given there is no concrete opposition candidate twice in a row. I am not particularly optimistic and I think it's kinda hard to be, but ymmv.
 
As a Voter, my expectation of any Presidential candidate, and indeed serving President, is that they'd on top of these issues and contributing their time and energy towards finding a solution.

Optimism and hope have their place - action though is vitally required, especially now.
This, I think, is the point that is missing with some folks, JayDee. You seem more upset with the fact that people are campaigning for RoE than you are about the fact that we have now had 2 RoE elections in a row. As the region's leader, we expect to see you looking out for the region's interest over your own sense of grievance. People are concerned and looking for solutions.
 
If our ticket wins, I think that is as strong a mandate as winning in a competitive election given we overcame the combination of people who want competitive elections, want anyone but JayDee, OR prefer one of the individuals who've already declared. It's great to see such passion in our election again, it gives me a lot of optimism for the upcoming Senate election and even the next Presidential election, where the field may be more open.

I definitely think that it makes sense for the candidate who runs unopposed in back to back elections to pitch beating RoE twice as a political victory but, from the outside in, it doesn't really pass the smell test. I also think that it is the case that these are relatively promising numbers given that JayDee is underwater in every head to head match-up polled (remember, the only poll that matters is on election day).

I have said it before this election cycle, but Presidential candidates who face RoE start from a worse political position precisely because there is no opposing vision that you "win" against. RoE is a messy, "break glass in case of Democratic Emergency" button. RoE faces significant headwinds - the announced candidates are frankly not top tier (no one from the Smokin' Poll with significant support has expressed that they will run in a RoE triggered election). Somehow CSP and (no offense 🧌) Lloen see as much interest from respondents as the incumbent in the Smokin' Poll - in of itself that's pretty remarkable and suggests weakness rather than strength going into the election (caveat that poll timing matters and the Smokin' Poll occured just after a low point in the Administration, and various Ministries have improved since then).

Beating RoE is not particularly impressive - no Presidential candidate has ever lost to RoE before. RoE got 30% last election - if it improves on that how can it be anything but a disappointment? For our institutions, it certainly is a dissapointment to see RoE twice. IMO if I were JayDee I would be trying to find a punching bag to run against or want to face opponents in a RoE victory.

Thinking back to our previous three consecutive term Presidents, we have Writinglegend and Anumia. Writinglegend needs no introduction - but iirc Anumia actually ran a recall vote against themselves to solidify political power during their Presidential term. Beating RoE twice is definitely how to serve 210 days, but I'm not sure it's mandate territory. (I'm not sure if Anumia did that during their three term run, but it's certainly a contrast in how to "win" a mandate versus claiming it by beating no-body).

My guess is that JayDee will win - perhaps not super comfortably - and RoE will improve on its previous performance. That is IMO the worst case for the JayDee mandate. To be frank I do think it's also good that there isn't anything revolutionary in the platform because we'd have to spend the next 70 days arguing about whether a particular outcome gives a mandate for very significant modifications to our regional institutions. :p

I think rather than cheerfully breezing past this we should be asking ourselves real questions about the structures of our governance and our electoral systems, and get to the why(s) behind this now repeated event.
If there are so few people willing to serve the office of President then we should consider reform, for sure. It's not worth putting significant expectations on players only to beat them up when no one else wants the job. At the same time, I do think this is frankly a bad sign for Europeian democracy given there is no concrete opposition candidate twice in a row. I am not particularly optimistic and I think it's kinda hard to be, but ymmv.

So cruel. So very very cruel 😭
 
I'm happy to see the promises of several new tickets, meaning a collection of new ideas to think about and improve Europeia with. I sympathise also with the people who are looking to vote RoE to facilitate that, a strive for healthy democracy involves varied discussions with many stakeholders which we hope result in strong and thorough policy positions to move forward in the right direction with. While of course we'd like to win, the purpose of winning is being able to fulfill our vision in Europeia's development, and with that as the endgoal, it would be unwise to not consider especially electoral activity and contest as an important factor for the betterment of the region.

That being said, I think there is a massive disconnect between the understanding and responsibility we are giving JayDee and the rest of the region here. I find it extremely ironic that we can have conversations about reasonable expectations, acknowledge that we are having staffing problems and activity downturns unrelated to JayDee's performance, and then expect JayDee to not be disillusioned with an RoE campaign after he works hard despite real-life busyness to put together and organise a ticket this cycle when unfortunately nobody else was able.

We are expecting him to:
- Work to improve (mostly unarticulated) complaints from the midterm into a far more positive endterm result
- Fully organise a ticket in an incredibly difficult time
- Lead efforts to inspire his electoral opposition and coordinate to solve a region-wide activity issue

JayDee managed two of those, but even Gleg was not successful at inspiring electoral opposition and solving poor election contests. You could of course argue that his stellar performance made up for that, but expecting people to be Gleg (or even better) is far from what I'd consider reasonable.

Part of encouraging a healthy democracy includes a healthy approach to critcising the incumbent, what do you think potential runners are going to look at when they gauge what their presidency will look like? If you think the past term had problems or errors that lead to poor electoral contest, let's talk about those! If you think our ticket offers poor solutions for the region moving forward, come point those out, those are all reasonable challenges that belong in a healthy election, one which most people have so far not offered.

For those who support an RoE vote, I would humbly encourage the following:

- Absolutely vote for what you think is best for the region, and I respect the wish to facilitate competitive elections by giving people more time in this difficult period activity-wise.
- Understand that JayDee isn't a superhero, and that we aren't going to be a cheerleader for an RoE campaign that is directly opposed to our ticket's success in the election. Temper your expectations according to the broader state of the region and people's initatives, which you cannot possibly assign completely to JayDee.
 
I don’t think anyone is asking JayDee to be a cheerleader for ROE, just not to be quite as personally shocked and affronted that people are going to this option after he’s had two full terms of mixed success and is facing his second unopposed election in a row.
 
I don’t think anyone is asking JayDee to be a cheerleader for ROE, just not to be quite as personally shocked and affronted that people are going to this option after he’s had two full terms of mixed success and is facing his second unopposed election in a row.
I stopped being shocked and affronted two days ago. I’m no more offended that people are voting RoE than I am that people voted for you and Kazaman. This is a campaign, you shouldn’t be so shocked and affronted that I want to win.
 
I don’t think anyone is asking JayDee to be a cheerleader for ROE, just not to be quite as personally shocked and affronted that people are going to this option after he’s had two full terms of mixed success and is facing his second unopposed election in a row.
I stopped being shocked and affronted two days ago. I’m no more offended that people are voting RoE than I am that people voted for you and Kazaman. This is a campaign, you shouldn’t be so shocked and affronted that I want to win.
Okay good! This is the transparency I wanted, rather than being so offended that I’d call you a political animal. You want to win! And that’s okay. Healthy even.
 
I don’t think anyone is asking JayDee to be a cheerleader for ROE, just not to be quite as personally shocked and affronted that people are going to this option after he’s had two full terms of mixed success and is facing his second unopposed election in a row.
I stopped being shocked and affronted two days ago. I’m no more offended that people are voting RoE than I am that people voted for you and Kazaman. This is a campaign, you shouldn’t be so shocked and affronted that I want to win.
Okay good! This is the transparency I wanted, rather than being so offended that I’d call you a political animal. You want to win! And that’s okay. Healthy even.
I wasn’t aware that a campaign required the explicit statement “I want to win.” I feel like its nature is rather transparent in of itself :p
 
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