Poll: Super-Sized Senate Field Hurtles Towards Finish
Super Size Me
Written by Aex & McEntire
Foreword: I want to thank all of those who came out to take the poll. A sample size of about 34 Citizens is significant for a community like ours, however because of the dynamics of our community polling isn't an exact science. There's no way to weight numbers to be more accurate of a demographic, and there's no way to know or adjust for variables that you can account for in real life. These numbers aren't the end-all-be-all, and it's not the end of the world. You should always take polls with a grain (or whole shaker) of salt. I could run the same poll tomorrow and get wildly different results based solely upon who is turning up to participate. At the end of the day there's only one poll that matters: the voting booth. So be sure that you get out and make your voice heard when it really counts on Election Day.
[sub]You can better view the raw data summaries here[/sub]
To quickly explain:
- "Natural" ballot refers to how voters may cast their vote on election day without wanting, or being forced to allocate each one of their nine votes to a candidate.
- "Full" ballot refers to the voting habits expressed in this poll when voters were forced to choose to allocate all nine of their votes for Senate.
- "Real" average refers to the average between both of the prior categories-- this is likely a more "fair" representation of how voter turnout may look on Election Day.
"Natural" Ballot Data
"Full" Ballot Data
"Real" Average Data
When we dig into the different ballot questions, we gain a more detailed perspective. When respondents were forced to choose 9 candidates, the standings changed somewhat. This could mean that some candidates' chances are overrated while others are underrated. But some clear tiers of candidates start to form, when we look at the data. In all three assessments, the top five are Writinglegend, Kuramia, Comrade Prim, Calvin Coolidge, and Kraketopia. These five are almost certain to be elected to the Senate tomorrow. That leaves us with four spots left to fill. Trailing closely behind, but still comfortably in the lead are Izzy and Pichtonia. We would rate these two as likely to be elected.
The next group is the candidates on the bubble, who could either face victory or defeat tomorrow. Battling it out for the final two spots in the Senate are Kari, Vac, and Punchwood. There is the potential for a tight race here, although Kari and Vac are ahead as of the posting of this poll. The final group, JayDee, Olde Delaware, Jahka, and Shin, seem unlikely to be elected, although one of them could very well pull an upset.
Who Do You Think Will Win & Who Do You Want To Be Speaker
In terms of potential Speaker candidates, the far and away choices of the public are Writinglegend and Calvin Coolidge, who drew the votes of 64.7% and 61.8% of respondents, respectively. A second tier of potentially popular Speaker candidates could be Kraketopia or Izzy, who received votes from 29.4% and 26.5% of respondents, respectively. Although it bears repeating that the Speaker's race is not popularly elected, it's between the Senators. Anything could happen once the Senate is seated.
In terms of who is expected to win, some candidates appear to be somewhat underestimated. For instance, Kuramia was second in our real average, and yet scored fourth in the expectations game. Only 26.5% expect Kari to win, and yet her odds for winning a seat could be closer to 50/50. And JayDee's chances may be somewhat overrated, with 35.3% expecting him to emerge victorious despite a sizeable gap between his vote total and the next highest person.
Who Do You Think Will Win [L] & Who Do You Want To Be Speaker [R] Data
(Optional) Candidate Ballot Ranking, sorted by lowest (first/best) candidate total average to highest (last/worst)
As an extra caution we want to remind readers that not every respondent filled this section out, however we feel that the data is still interesting and relevant, so take this with a grain of salt and not as the word of God. The big winner here is Writinglegend. He clearly has strong popular support, and was the first or second choice for a majority of poll respondents. Similarly strong support is enjoyed by Calvin, Comrade Prim, Kraketopia, Pichtonia, and Kuramia. Rounding out the bottom of the rankings are Jahka, Jay Dee, and Shin who a majority of respondents mark as being among their least preferred candidates.
