[euro538ia] MARCH 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION LIVEBLOG



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EURO538IA ELECTION LIVEBLOG
Europeia Decides, and the EBC posts


Palace of the People, Oval Room - Election Day is upon us, and some last minute shake ups have radically changed a sleepy race into a potential barn burner. To summarize for those catching up: Frontier/Stronghold has dominated the last month of Europeian Politics, and the region has come out in favor of a Frontier Europeia in a recent Referendum. President Lloenflys announced at the midterm that he would not run for reelection, and Senate Speaker Rand and Senator Lime both stood for President after the Frontier/Stronghold Referendum ended. Enthusiasm in the race has been low, but Rand appeared very well positioned to run away with the election.

However, low enthusiasm and a series of developments in the Senate regarding the Regional Security Council opened the door for a last-minute, scrambling campaign from McEntire. No polls have been finished that have all three candidates in the race, but preliminary results of a Spag survey appear to show the race tightening significantly. Recall that to win outright, a candidate will need more than 50% of the vote. Otherwise, Europeia will go to a runoff election. More on that as the election develops.

All three candidates have released either platforms or statements which you can read here:

Stay tuned with EURO538IA liveblog throughout election day as we bring you updates as Europeia Decides.

Also note that posts in this thread may be edited by the Minister of Communications (me) for formatting. Edits will never be made to content.
 
So much to discuss and break down, and only 24 hours to do it!

First up is @Istillian - wow. So much to say and I feel like this is one of the most dynamic races from one of the sleepiest... it's all changed so fast over the last few days. What is your impression - is this accurate? Why do you think that McEntire is suddenly surging in the polls despite no particular platform, no recent activity? Is it McEntire being a known quantity during a Frontier Europeia? Is it a protest vote? What... what is happening Istillian?!
 
I also want to welcome @Pichtonia into the conversation - how do you see the dynamics of this race? What are the big picture issues that voters seem to care about? Or is this less of an ideas election?
 
I mean, my own experience with McEntire is very positive - the bloke exudes energy and passion with the work he does, and Forward Europeia!, created and thrust into the spotlight by McEntire, was likely one of the most successful political parties we've had in many years. So it goes without saying that a launch back into the community from him right when the F/S update is happening is going to pique some interest, possibly land the protest votes from a sleepy election season, and see this ticket as the underdog of the race. Another side to this is that SkyGreen was Lime's former Vice President so we know there's some competition here, but he's also a reliable face in the community and he's provided Europeia with a lot of our F/S resources; the moment was ripe for these two to band together, even if it is a last minute run.

I suppose the big question for me is how do you think Rand and Writinglegend combat the "exciting" comeback approach from McEntire, when only recently we had polling suggesting a clear victory for what is definitely still a very strong ticket?
 
I suppose the big question for me is how do you think Rand and Writinglegend combat the "exciting" comeback approach from McEntire, when only recently we had polling suggesting a clear victory for what is definitely still a very strong ticket?
Great question - it has to be a bit of whiplash for what were the clear frontrunners to suddenly be overpassed by an upstart ticket. The good news for the Rand / Writinglegend ticket is that they have one of the best campaigners in the history of Europeia. Plus, all they need to do is deny McEntire 50%+1 in order to force a runoff... thought you have to imagine that a runoff is... maybe tilted towards McEntire. It's a tricky situation, but GOTV and on brand messaging might be able to rescue the Rand ticket yet!

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@Sopo how do you see the late McEntire entry into the race and its sudden surge during the first hour of election day? Is this a case of Europeians wanting something that was off-menu, or is it a rejection of some spicy politics from Rand and Lime in the Senate over the last week? Also, what are your thoughts on a potential runoff - does it benefit the McEntire camp, which has yet to release a fully hashed out platform? Or does a runoff - with an added "runoff campaign period" added by the current Senate - benefit the former frontrunner Rand, who might be able to refocus and remessage?

Will we even get to a runoff? There are lots of votes outstanding, and are those late voters going to come home to GOTV king Writinglegend or does McEntire stand a chance with the latecomers? Or will Lime be able to surge in the late vote?
 
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I also want to welcome @Pichtonia into the conversation - how do you see the dynamics of this race? What are the big picture issues that voters seem to care about? Or is this less of an ideas election?

Thank you for welcoming me to the conversation, PhDre!

It truly did seem a bit sluggish at first didn't it? We had two pretty good platforms in my opinion, but for the challenges that are ahead of us, surprisingly few questions were asked, we didn't see a debate either. Rand did get a few endorsements though, and if I had to guess why the election was so sluggish, maybe it's that it truly is less of an ideas race for many citizens, and more about our future as a Frontier. And where the two tickets don't differ outlandishly on policy ideas, Rand has the advantage of having the one guy on his ticket who has formed our Post-Update-Strategy like probably no one else, his Vice Presidential candidate Writinglegend. UPC put it pretty good in Discord's grand-hall channel earlier: "Lime's focus on getting newcomers in government, while admirable, is probably not a priority for most people at the moment."

Ultimately, whether that theory stands its ground has yet to be seen. The entry of McEntire/SkyGreen has definitely changed the outset of this election and injected some new life and excitement into the race that such a momentous occasion deserves.

As the ticket voicing frustration with the other two candidates' handling of the nomination of UPC to the Regional Security Council, these two are adding a whole new element to this race, and I can't yet tell how it'll change the dynamic, but first polling on it is very interesting.
 
Ultimately, whether that theory stands its ground has yet to be seen. The entry of McEntire/SkyGreen has definitely changed the outset of this election and injected some new life and excitement into the race that such a momentous occasion deserves.
Oh my goodness yes - I think I've already gotten a handful of "craziest election ever" messages. I don't know if we are there yet but it certainly has become a much more dynamic race than anyone could have guessed just a few days ago.

I want to invite @Ervald to offer some thoughts. What do you think is the issue that is dominating election day? I'm hearing that there are some voters who were very very pro-Writinglegend who appear to have been peeled off by the McEntire campaign. What do you make of the entire dynamic?
 
I want to invite @Ervald to offer some thoughts. What do you think is the issue that is dominating election day? I'm hearing that there are some voters who were very very pro-Writinglegend who appear to have been peeled off by the McEntire campaign. What do you make of the entire dynamic?
I think the issue that is dominating the election day is really the successful implementation of our response to the F/S update and the RSC. I think that plays into the dynamic you're talking about if you just look at what happened with UPC. His nomination failed and in the #grand-hall channel on Discord, there were kerfuffle between Rand and others about what serving on the RSC would be like and and mentions of an "unnamed expert". I can very well imagine some voters found that interaction concerning and made a guess maybe that is how Rand could respond to future situations like that with the RSC. So perhaps those voters looked toward McEntire, one of the biggest pro-Frontier voices, and decided they would rather have him implement the RSC and Europeia's response to the F/S update.
 
I think that plays into the dynamic you're talking about if you just look at what happened with UPC. His nomination failed and in the #grand-hall channel on Discord, there were kerfuffle between Rand and others about what serving on the RSC would be like and and mentions of an "unnamed expert". I can very well imagine some voters found that interaction concerning and made a guess maybe that is how Rand could respond to future situations like that with the RSC. So perhaps those voters looked toward McEntire, one of the biggest pro-Frontier voices, and decided they would rather have him implement the RSC and Europeia's response to the F/S update.

To bring the "kerfuffle" into full view, here is some back and forth from #grand-hall just yesterday:

Rand
[Regarding UPC's nomination] I was told by experts in this that the RSC is like a 24/7 military operation, so I believe activity and consistency are chief qualifications for the role... Not sure if they want their comments public, sorry to be vague.

Vara
Ftr, unless the RSC’s duties are wildly different from those of typical feeder officials, I don’t know that that’s the case ... I imagine that as an immediate transition things will be pretty hectic but after the first few weeks being a high endo security official in a spawn region is not particularly….hands-on most of the time

Comfed
I don't think the RSC is supposed to be a 24-hour guard to like ban the point on any raid of Europeia

UPC
it makes me so much better to know that my nomination was rejected because anonymous expert x has a more thorough understanding of R/D and the role of a security council than all of the GCRites in euro

Kuramia
[regarding Rand's expert] would probably be best, if you're naming them an expert, they did allow you to quote them << ... I hope our potential presidents do have experts, and understand what they've said, for this F/S update cause that's worrying

Damn that's some spicy meatball!

I want to reach out to @UPC who is ... clearly at the center of some of the debate, to say the least. What are your thoughts on the prominence of the RSC as it pertains to the election? Is it your sense that the RSC, and perceptions about the Frontier update, are as significant an issue that some commenters are making it out to be? Any other thoughts on the election?
 
I also want to flag that candidate Rand has just posted a comment regarding the UPC nomination, which I will link to here.
 
An update on the state of the race.

At 1 hour and 20 minutes into the election, 27 citizens have voted, and McEntire leads with 14 votes. Rand has 10 and Lime has 3. If the election were to end now, McEntire would become President.

However, we have another 22 plus hours to go, and euro538eia expects at least another 30 votes. Turnout in the January 2023 Presidential election was 63 and another 64 voted in the November 2022 election. If we hit those numbers, expect 37ish more votes. Lots of room for this race to change!
 
I want to reach out to @UPC who is ... clearly at the center of some of the debate, to say the least. What are your thoughts on the prominence of the RSC as it pertains to the election? Is it your sense that the RSC, and perceptions about the Frontier update, are as significant an issue that some commenters are making it out to be? Any other thoughts on the election?
The Frontier/Stronghold update and its ramifications have been an incredibly prominent topic in Europeian politics for at least a year and a half now. This is the first term where any of that actually matters, though. The update is imminent (or as imminent as anything can be in this game's development cycle), we literally have players beta testing the update on NS3 as we speak, and there are going to be major consequences for Europeia when this update drops. Yes, this is an issue that deserves a great deal of attention.

One thing that has surprised me during this election cycle is the lack of critical engagement with platforms, specifically the Lime/Turb platform. Both the Rand and Lime tickets posted their platforms last Saturday (for the purpose of this post, Saturday is 12AM - 11:59PM EST), but the Lime/Turb platform has not received nearly as much traffic, raking in ~50% as many views and ~40% as many replies as Rand/Gleg. Compared to Europeia's previous election cycle, engagement with both platforms is down significantly. Given the stakes that are at play in this election, and the power players that represent both (and now, all three) tickets, I find this a bit disappointing.
 
Both the Rand and Lime tickets posted their platforms last Saturday (for the purpose of this post, Saturday is 12AM - 11:59PM EST), but the Lime/Turb platform has not received nearly as much traffic, raking in ~50% as many views and ~40% as many replies as Rand/Gleg. Compared to Europeia's previous election cycle, engagement with both platforms is down significantly. Given the stakes that are at play in this election, and the power players that represent both (and now, all three) tickets, I find this a bit disappointing.
This coupled with low satisfaction with the Presidential field appears to have set the stage for McEntire's last minute success.

Speaking of being 100% responsible for low satisfaction with the Presidential field, let's turn to current President @Lloenflys , who announced that he was not going to run for reelection at the midterms. Lloen, I feel like 35 days is plenty of time to set the stage for candidates. You even said as much - Hey, it's time to start thinking about running. Are you surprised by the enthusiasm levels and engagement this election cycle?

I also wanted to ask you about the UPC nomination. You're not stranger to controversial nominations, as the Hezekon Culture nomination ran into some challenges at the start of your term. You made some parallels between UPC and Hez, and the obstacles they faced in getting confirmed. Looking back at the UPC nomination now that it has failed, what is your reaction?
 
I also want to invite @GraVandius to chime in - you've been vocal about how Lime is getting the short end of the stick in this election, and recently called the election "goofy." The euro538ia liveblog readers want to know just how goofy you think this is. What stands out to you?
 
Both the Rand and Lime tickets posted their platforms last Saturday (for the purpose of this post, Saturday is 12AM - 11:59PM EST), but the Lime/Turb platform has not received nearly as much traffic, raking in ~50% as many views and ~40% as many replies as Rand/Gleg. Compared to Europeia's previous election cycle, engagement with both platforms is down significantly. Given the stakes that are at play in this election, and the power players that represent both (and now, all three) tickets, I find this a bit disappointing.
This coupled with low satisfaction with the Presidential field appears to have set the stage for McEntire's last minute success.

Speaking of being 100% responsible for low satisfaction with the Presidential field, let's turn to current President @Lloenflys , who announced that he was not going to run for reelection at the midterms. Lloen, I feel like 35 days is plenty of time to set the stage for candidates. You even said as much - Hey, it's time to start thinking about running. Are you surprised by the enthusiasm levels and engagement this election cycle?

I also wanted to ask you about the UPC nomination. You're not stranger to controversial nominations, as the Hezekon Culture nomination ran into some challenges at the start of your term. You made some parallels between UPC and Hez, and the obstacles they faced in getting confirmed. Looking back at the UPC nomination now that it has failed, what is your reaction?

HEYYYYOOOOOOOO <hiccup> PhDre you're looking ... is that a kimono? <hiccup>

Well. Welllllll well well here we are. Here I am. Here Europeia is. BREAK OUT THE SCOTCH FRIENDS (that's for you @Darcness ) It is the LAST DAY OF EUROPEIA! Or. Wait no. It is the last day of MY Europeia!!! DRINK UP!

Oh you had a question. Questions. <squints> yes questions. I HAVE ANSWERS PHDRE!

First, I'm not surprised by the lack of engagement. What was there to engage with? For most of this campaign you had one very energetic and viable campaign that was brimming with ideas and someone who seemed to be in a position to lead the region moving forward without much difficulty, and with an iconic Euro figure in his corner as VP. On the other hand, you had a former President whose term people don't remember fondly because of how it ended running with an extremely nice and polite VP who doesn't have nearly the FA background that the opposition has (That is not a knock on Turb - no one could possibly measure up to the FA legacy Gleg brings to his ticket, that's just a reality). The dynamics of the race made this a boring race - and the polling showed that. And since I'm drunk, I'll say this - Lime needed to do something, anything, to differentiate his ticket *significantly* from Rand. He needed arguments and discussion that set him apart. Platform differences weren't going to do it unless they were *really* big, swing for the fences ideas that would lead to structural change and get people talking. Instead, virtually every chance he had to distinguish himself from Rand (the UPC nomination, the Bar Association idea) Lime followed Rand's position. That is not how you change the structural view of the race. Lime, I put you on blast a little bit here and I'm sorry for that, I like you as a person, but I'm saying what I genuinely think about how this race played out.

The UPC nomination frustrated me because of how it was handled. I don't want to pile on. UPC has had a chance to say his piece, Rand has commented in his campaign thread, it's been discussed heavily in discord. I will just repeat that the Senate had a job to do and it did it, and while I disagree with the decision I understand the basis of their concerns and don't even necessarily disagree with making the decision on the basis of activity and "sticking power" in the role. However, and I think this is what has hurt Rand, too many of the comments have been refuted by people who are very familiar with the F/S Update and the way gameplay is likely to be structured, and it seemed like Rand was casting about for reasons to justify denying UPC's nomination when he probably should have just stuck with "he's not active enough" and left it there. Now, he got into a situation where he's making comments like "the RSC is like 24/7 warfare" (that's a paraphrase) which has a lot of people scratching their heads. The whole thing opened the door for McEntire to swoop in. This was an unforced error on Rand's part because he could have accomplished the same goal without opening up lines of attack, and possibly without even causing McEntire and Sky to choose to run.

A couple quick other thoughts - Gleg is a huge value to this campaign, but I haven't seen him comment a lot during the campaign itself (I may have just missed it, I apologize if that's the case), and either way does anyone really think Gleg isn't going to help if asked to help in the next term in some way? He might not have a formal role in a potential McEntire administration (maybe he would, I have no idea), but he's not going to just walk away if he thinks he's needed. I think that could hurt Rand because a lot of people may very well think "well Gleg will be around to give expertise no matter what" and I'm guessing that's accurate. That may minimize his value as a candidate, or at least mitigate it to some degree.

Second, I'll be curious to see how people react to McEntire's strong (possibly winning) performance in a last minute campaign. How much of that is McEntire being seen as the best choice to lead, and how much of that is Rand either over-reaching or being seen as a little off base with some of his comments, causing people to look elsewhere? Eurologists (teehee see what I did there??) will be asking that question for years.
 
I also want to invite @GraVandius to chime in - you've been vocal about how Lime is getting the short end of the stick in this election, and recently called the election "goofy." The euro538ia liveblog readers want to know just how goofy you think this is. What stands out to you?
A number of things stand out to me. I’m primarily confused as to what the heck the 16 people who have voted for McEntire to this hour are even voting for. There is no platform to date and his candidacy statement has nothing other that a brief rundown of his experience (which on paper is basically just equivalent to Rand’s) and a couple of lukewarm attacks on the sitting Speaker of the Senate. There are a number of serious issues facing the incoming President, from the update to the fact that our key tech tools are not working, and we have no indication for how a potential President McEntire would handle them. It’s unclear if even McEntire knows, as he’s still crafting his platform at this moment. Citizens are voting for him before he even necessarily knows what his plans are for the term. That’s real goofy if you ask me.

Additionally, no Presidential candidate in the history of Europeia has stood this late (within 24 hours of polls opening) and not had a platform as polls opened. This is unprecedented, on that alone, notwithstanding the fact that McEntire has barely been active in the community over the past couple months. He has a staggering 11 forum posts since JANUARY and has held no office since September of last year. During the same period Rand, has been one of the most active and engaged citizens in the region. I’m really struggling to see any reason that a vote for a no-platform, no-activity citizen for President is not one of the goofiest things you could do.
 
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I was out to lunch - is euro538ia allowed to eat on election day? No! The show must go on.

Thank you @GraVandius and @Lloenflys for your thoughts! Lots to digest in terms of strategy, the state of the race, and the late entrance of McEntire.

I wanted to turn to election administrator and Chief Justice @Darkslayer for comment - this is an unprecedented election in many ways! Not only do we have candidates standing late in the game, we also have a non Chancellor opening the polls on election day. When were you alerted that your skills would be required? Can you take off your election administrator hat to give your thoughts on the election, or is that the whole damn point of having an election administrator?
 
I wanted to turn to election administrator and Chief Justice @Darkslayer for comment - this is an unprecedented election in many ways! Not only do we have candidates standing late in the game, we also have a non Chancellor opening the polls on election day. When were you alerted that your skills would be required? Can you take off your election administrator hat to give your thoughts on the election, or is that the whole damn point of having an election administrator?
This really is a fascinating election in so many ways. As if the F/S update was not enough, we had a CJ open the polls, late standing, and so many various poll indicators flying around! I was alerted this morning in the early hours. Thankfully I was awake and (shamefully) working so I was around when Lethen messaged me. We did laugh at the certain irony that we joked about one-day having this happen, so it was hard to believe it at first sight - but it is a great honour to have opened the polls.

Sad to say I can't give any thoughts on the election - I haven't even voted! I'm having to remain rather mute in case anything happens that might require me to do anything extra - such as a run-off election - I don't want any one to judge my impartiality as the election administrator. Thank you for the questions!
 
Thank you for your thoughts, election administrator!

Speaking of a runoff election, this election could be the first under a new rule that allows for a new campaigning period before a runoff election. @Pichtonia , what are your thoughts on the politics of a runoff period? Would that advantage surging McEntire? Or allow Rand to pick apart McEntire's potential weaknesses and recent inactivity? Could Lime play kingmaker?

I also flag that the McEntire campaign has posted their platform and are starting to get questions (and even an endorsement).
 
Speaking of a runoff election, this election could be the first under a new rule that allows for a new campaigning period before a runoff election. @Pichtonia , what are your thoughts on the politics of a runoff period? Would that advantage surging McEntire? Or allow Rand to pick apart McEntire's potential weaknesses and recent inactivity? Could Lime play kingmaker?

I honestly forgot for most of today that we had this new rule! But I think some candidates did, too, so I'll try not to be too embarrassed.

Honestly, I do think it will be more to the benefit of Rand. He got a lot of criticism for his handling of the UPC nomination, including from me, but now he has time to face the criticism - and maybe for emotions to calm down a little. McEntire, on the other hand, probably has more to lose in an extension. Where he was previously a projection area for the frustration with both Rand and Lime, he might find himself in a similar situation to Lime in a runoff, if not worse, because McEntire doesn't have the same recent record of activity to show for. Which, agree or disagree with the notion that it's significant, polling suggests does play a heightened role for many Europeians - more than 90 % indicated that it's an important criteria for them in a Cabinet nominee. The big unknown for me personally is how big and how solid this frustration with the other candidates really is. McEntire could still take it away from here, it's still early in the race.

But if there is a runoff and McEntire is in it, as looks likely, then I think Lime could certainly serve as kingmaker. Any vote will matter, Lime himself and on his own could even serve as the kingmaker. Though I don't think Lime is particularly likely to shun a Senate friend for someone who stood to take a stand against a decision of these two Senate friends, and I'd be surprised if McEntire's strategy hinged on Lime's support.
 
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