[euro538ia] JULY 2023 SENATE ELECTION LIVEBLOG

​
1674191052117.png
EURO538IA ELECTION LIVEBLOG
Europeia Decides, and the EBC posts​
Palace of the People, Oval Room - Polls in the Senate election have opened, and we're off! As early results are flooding in, it's clear that that this big race will be competitive... and spicy! Good thing the EBC is here to cover it!

A few notes before we get started:

1. Our lovely EBC contributors seem to have some spotty availability throughout this election (not to mention that so many of them are candidates!), so this liveblog may be updated regularly or barely. We shall see! Yet another unpredictable aspect of this exciting election...

2. The EBC has already released a great load of top-notch coverage of this race! Make sure to check out the interviews of the candidates and the latest polling!

3. As intriguing as this liveblog and the hot takes in #grand-hall are, don't forget to vote yourself!

Alright, let's get moving! First up, I'm going to invite @JayDee to the blog! JayDee, what do you make of the results so far? What do you see as the issues most at play in this elections?
 
Click to expand...
Screenshot 2023-07-14 2.58.13 PM.png


This election will move to a runoff imminently between McEntire and Ellenburg, as they tied for the seventh seat with 40 votes each! The EBC will be here to cover the election for yet another day, but admittedly this liveblog will probably suffer painfully at the hands of private election results. I guess that's my fault for signing the bill, but oh well. :p

Meanwhile, the next Senate will have two newer faces as Elio and ICH have both won seats!

Let's bring @Forilian back to the liveblog! Forilian, what are you expecting heading into the runoff? The first round of voting closed with a whopping 78 voters. What are you thinking we might see in terms of runoff turnout? Higher because it is a more competitive race? Lower because there was less advanced notice? Or about the same?
 

🚨 ALERT: EBC EXIT POLL 🚨​

​
Now that polls are open, the EBC is launching an exit poll for the runoff election. Results will come out in roughly 12 hours! Take it here!

In other news, Lloenflys has resigned from the Attorney General's office, as promised in his campaign. Rude. Who will be the next AG? Gosh, I wonder...
 
Pland Adanna said:

🚨 ALERT: EBC EXIT POLL 🚨​

​
Now that polls are open, the EBC is launching an exit poll for the runoff election. Results will come out in roughly 12 hours! Take it here!

In other news, Lloenflys has resigned from the Attorney General's office, as promised in his campaign. Rude. Who will be the next AG? Gosh, I wonder...
Click to expand...
Me
 
Pland Adanna said:
Let's bring @Forilian back to the liveblog! Forilian, what are you expecting heading into the runoff? The first round of voting closed with a whopping 78 voters. What are you thinking we might see in terms of runoff turnout? Higher because it is a more competitive race? Lower because there was less advanced notice? Or about the same?
Click to expand...
Thanks for having me, Pland! Traditionally, runoffs have slightly higher turnout than the main election from what I've observed, just because candidates tend to put more effort in GOTVing in the runoff. However, with the first round already having such a high vote count, In this case, however, imagine that the second round will probably have slightly lower vote numbers than the first round -- at most, it'll probably tie. I don't imagine we could break 80 votes. It's worth noting that McEntire is a very skilled GOTV-er, so the Ellenburg campaign will definitely have to step up their game if they want to win. If I were either of the candidates, at this point I may even start soliciting public endorsements -- in such a tight race, anything helps.
 
Well, it's official, I've gotten my GOTV message from McEntire — so the campaign officially plods on.

It's tough to know exactly how exactly this will play out. But with McEntire starting GOTV efforts only moments after the runoff polls open should help his case. The more votes you can lock in early, the less votes your opponent is able to get. Furthermore, McEntire has proven an element of political savvy by slogging his way against high unfavorables to make it this far.

On the other hand, McEntire may have benefited from a large Senate field where having just a slice of the electorate behind you can be enough to get past the post. In a 1-to-1 matchup, it's possible that some of those favorability challenges will come back to haunt him.
 
Things have calmed down a little now, as the victors have been thanking their supporters, the remaining candidates have been speaking to voters, and the public has been accepting the fact that they won't know the runoff winner until tomorrow. Our lovely citizens in #grand-hall are so bored that they started talking about the GOTV opt-out list again. :p Maybe while we're waiting, everyone should a) make sure they are in the World Assembly and endorsing Le Libertie, b) join a ministry to help Europeia succeed, and c) congratulate the newly-elected senators. That said, I wonder what I could do to bring some excitement back... 😉
 
Screenshot 2023-07-14 2.58.13 PM.png

President Pland Adanna has released a midterm address, seeking to "reflect honestly on the status of the term: our successes and our struggles." EBC readers should be sure to check it out.

what's that? ANOTHER piece of breaking news?!

In yet another excitement development, the president has nominated Rand to serve as Attorney General. Rand, who is coming off a very popular term as president and a recent break due to real life circumstances, would bring a huge amount of legal experience to the role, if confirmed by the Senate.

In other news, the candidates, provoked (purposely?) by Deepest House, have taken to sparring in Ellenburg's campaign thread, each dragging out the other's controversial histories, while claiming to be mostly aligned. How this new dynamic will play out remains to be seen.
 
I almost forgot to mention! Tune into EBC Radio right now for some excellent coverage of the election!

EDIT: Also, don't forget to take the exit poll!
 

🚨 Exit Poll Results 🚨​

I do not have much time right now and it looks like I have missed a lot in the latest hours, but I have to drop these exit poll results! The small sample of respondents was very clearly not representative of the electorate, so I have sorted the results into blocks. Analyze to your own pleasure and speculate at your own risk!

Screenshot 2023-07-15 11.29.21 PM.png


McEntire is dope. He can work on being more turnt sometimes and I think he will but still very dope. I'm not sure what Ellenburg is bringing to this race in terms of the platform but I think they are also dope with levels of turntness yet unknown. We'll see.
Mac needs to be shown that his actions were wrong.
I misclicked McEntire instead of Prim :(
If heavy-handed rhetoric towards potential colleagues is governing, I don’t want it.
 
I almost forgot to wrap up this liveblog!

Here’s where things stand. Ellenburg has won the seventh seat in the 90th Senate with 62.5% of the vote. Seventy-two citizens cast ballots in the runoff. This slightly lower turnout compared to the first round may have hurt McEntire, given his seeming reliance on less tuned-in voters. The Senate has now launched a Speaker selection process, pitting Senator Lloenflys against Senator Gem.

That’s enough for this liveblog, but the EBC will still be here to bring you coverage of the latest events!
 
Pland Adanna said:
This slightly lower turnout compared to the first round may have hurt McEntire, given his seeming reliance on less tuned-in voters.
Click to expand...
Oof.

Either way, I think with this margin, it was going to be tough for McEntire to shake enough change out of the cushions to make a difference.
 
JayDee said:
…lower?
Click to expand...
The first round was 78, so the runoff's 72 is lower, I think. :p
Deepest House said:
Pland Adanna said:
This slightly lower turnout compared to the first round may have hurt McEntire, given his seeming reliance on less tuned-in voters.
Click to expand...
Oof.
Click to expand...
To be clear, this statement was based in the reports of McEntire's heavy GOTV campaign (which would be expected to win over and turn out more citizens who are less tuned in) and the clear trend of EBC polling (which generally attracts more tuned-in citizens) against McEntire.
 
I think it was just going to be tough for McEntire to win any runnoff. There is obviously a block of voters that were decidedly anti-McEntire no matter what which automatically goes to whomever his opponent would be. Additionally though if you support McEntires broader view of oversight but maybe were not fully on board with his actions last term it’s really easy to vote for Ellenburg who ostensibly holds many of those positions without any of that recent baggage. Plus Ellenburg has that exciting newcomer card which when pitted against an embattled experienced member has often come out victorious.
 
Pland Adanna said:

🚨 Exit Poll Results 🚨​

I do not have much time right now and it looks like I have missed a lot in the latest hours, but I have to drop these exit poll results! The small sample of respondents was very clearly not representative of the electorate, so I have sorted the results into blocks. Analyze to your own pleasure and speculate at your own risk!

Screenshot 2023-07-15 11.29.21 PM.png


McEntire is dope. He can work on being more turnt sometimes and I think he will but still very dope. I'm not sure what Ellenburg is bringing to this race in terms of the platform but I think they are also dope with levels of turntness yet unknown. We'll see.
Mac needs to be shown that his actions were wrong.
I misclicked McEntire instead of Prim :(
If heavy-handed rhetoric towards potential colleagues is governing, I don’t want it.
Click to expand...
Oh wow. McEntire would have lost outright if not for the misclick!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top