EBC Jan. '24 Presidential Election Liveblog

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EBC Jan. '24 Presidential Election Liveblog
Like a regular blog.... but LIVE!!
​

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This is EBC Editor McEntire coming to you live from downtown Arnhelm, where we are seeing early results trickle in from this Presidential Election, which has been highly heated in recent days despite there only being one declared candidate.

In case you missed it, President JayDee is running for a historic third term with his running mate the popular Grand Admiral Vor, and for the second election in a row he is facing Re-Open Elections (or RoE) as his opponent, since no other candidate stood. Delegate upc stood only to withdraw for real-life reasons a few days before the vote.

Polls show a tight race between JayDee and Re-Open Elections, which would trigger a new election if it prevailed. A group of citizens led by former President Sopo has launched a campaign for RoE, arguing that we need a "second chance" at this election due to its uncompetitive nature and proximity to the holiday season. JayDee has pushed back strongly on this view, arguing that potential candidates had plenty of time and defending his administration's performance as worthy of a third term.

With only early results in - only 24 have voted thus far - RoE leads with 2/3 of the vote, with 1/3 voting for JayDee. This analyst would caution, though, that we would expect later votes to favor JayDee/Vor, based on how polling results came in. The EBC has reached out to the JayDee/Vor campaign for comment, and will update you once we have that.

For now, we want to bring in two of our expert EBC analysts.

First, correspondent @ICH. ICH, what has been your perspective on the results so far and on the election overall? Has JayDee made his case for a third term, in your opinion? And what do you think is the opinion on the ground about RoE?

Next, we'll bring in @PhDre. Dre, you had some interesting speculations in #grandhall in Discord about what we could see in terms of turnout in this election. What do these early results tell you about what we could see in terms of turnout, and what the eventual result may be?

We will bring you ongoing coverage of this election as votes come in, and please feel free to provide your own punditry below!

 

[PhDre]

Next, we'll bring in @PhDre. Dre, you had some interesting speculations in #grandhall in Discord about what we could see in terms of turnout in this election. What do these early results tell you about what we could see in terms of turnout, and what the eventual result may be?

So every recent election gets about 30-35 votes in the first hour. We currently have 24 in after 30 minutes so I think there are some outstanding "early" voters. However, early voters are much more pro-RoE than in the October 2023 Presidential Election. JayDee "won" the first hour of the October 2023 Presidential Election 22-10. Note that most campaigns are "over" in the first hour or two - lead changes are very rare.

However, I believe that running against RoE is unique; I expect that candidates, especially incumbents, perform better against RoE in the non-early-vote category than they do when presented with a concrete alternative candidate. The question is whether this early surge against JayDee is going to last. Is this a popular sentiment - that we should have a competitive election? Or is this just a loud minority?

I would suggest poll watchers do the following:
Break down the election into "thirds" based on your expected turnout. Let's say we hit 55 votes, which is what occurred in October 2023. How does the candidate perform in each of the "thirds" of the race?

I'll give you a hint about the October 2023 election - each "third" of the race was 18 voters. JayDee won each "leg" of the Election (13-5, 10-8, and 15-3).

JayDee is getting beat right now in the first third. There's no question this is actually a competitive race for JayDee. however, is the hole too big for him to overcome that margin with his "final third?" Again, I believe that incumbents running against RoE are uniquely positioned to perform well with late voters, so JayDee is not by any means out of his race. Look at the final third of his October 2023 race against RoE - he won 15-3! That's a twelve point swing that would erase his current deficit. if he gets a final third like that, expect JayDee to be sworn this time tomorrow.

However, he needs 65.5% of remaining voters in a 55 vote turnout election to win the race.
He needs 70.8% in a 50 vote turnout race.

So the margins are getting tight even as we type here, but I look for that "last third" to possibly deliver a victory for the incumbent.

 

[McEntire]

Next, we'll bring in @PhDre. Dre, you had some interesting speculations in #grandhall in Discord about what we could see in terms of turnout in this election. What do these early results tell you about what we could see in terms of turnout, and what the eventual result may be?

So every recent election gets about 30-35 votes in the first hour. We currently have 24 in after 30 minutes so I think there are some outstanding "early" voters. However, early voters are much more pro-RoE than in the October 2023 Presidential Election. JayDee "won" the first hour of the October 2023 Presidential Election 22-10. Note that most campaigns are "over" in the first hour or two - lead changes are very rare.

However, I believe that running against RoE is unique; I expect that candidates, especially incumbents, perform better against RoE in the non-early-vote category than they do when presented with a concrete alternative candidate. The question is whether this early surge against JayDee is going to last. Is this a popular sentiment - that we should have a competitive election? Or is this just a loud minority?

I would suggest poll watchers do the following:
Break down the election into "thirds" based on your expected turnout. Let's say we hit 55 votes, which is what occurred in October 2023. How does the candidate perform in each of the "thirds" of the race?

I'll give you a hint about the October 2023 election - each "third" of the race was 18 voters. JayDee won each "leg" of the Election (13-5, 10-8, and 15-3).

JayDee is getting beat right now in the first third. There's no question this is actually a competitive race for JayDee. however, is the hole too big for him to overcome that margin with his "final third?" Again, I believe that incumbents running against RoE are uniquely positioned to perform well with late voters, so JayDee is not by any means out of his race. Look at the final third of his October 2023 race against RoE - he won 15-3! That's a twelve point swing that would erase his current deficit. if he gets a final third like that, expect JayDee to be sworn this time tomorrow.

However, he needs 65.5% of remaining voters in a 55 vote turnout election to win the race.
He needs 70.8% in a 50 vote turnout race.

So the margins are getting tight even as we type here, but I look for that "last third" to possibly deliver a victory for the incumbent.

To give a little more context to this, as you said in the last election we had 55 voters. So in raw vote numbers, if RoE gets over 28 votes, JayDee may be in the "danger zone," where the number of voters would have been a majority of turnout in the last election. At 19 votes now, RoE isn't super far off that number, so that's the question: are there at least 9 more RoE voters out there?

If there are, JayDee will be hoping to inspire higher turnout. Just anecdotally, remembering the October election, this one seems to have generated more engagement. Last election did not have a campaign for RoE, whereas this time there is a formal campaign in place. So the real "danger zone" number for RoE votes may be higher!

Only time will tell, but as you note PhDre it certainly doesn't seem to be an insurmountable hurdle for the incumbent at this point, even if the early raw vote totals look bad for him.

 

[PhDre]

To give a little more context to this, as you said in the last election we had 55 voters. So in raw vote numbers, if RoE gets over 28 votes, JayDee may be in the "danger zone," where the number of voters would have been a majority of turnout in the last election. At 19 votes now, RoE isn't super far off that number, so that's the question: are there at least 9 more RoE voters out there?

If there are, JayDee will be hoping to inspire higher turnout. Just anecdotally, remembering the October election, this one seems to have generated more engagement. Last election did not have a campaign for RoE, whereas this time there is a formal campaign in place. So the real "danger zone" number for RoE votes may be higher!

We've had 30 votes after 1 hour of polls being open. RoE currently leads 20-10. In October 2023 we had 32 votes after 1 hour (total turnout 55 votes). And in August 2023 we 33 votes (total turnout 68 votes). So I don't think that first hour really tells you the story about what turnout will be - a word of caution there.

However, the August 2023 election had three campaigns all GOTVing. This is a different beast. So until I start seeing otherwise, I think we should be headed for about the same turnout as the previous RoE election in October 2023, with 55 votes. That means that possibly the majority of votes have already been cast! And it puts JayDee in a dangerous position but not out of striking distance. Again, to me it comes down to that final third. Can JayDee get a margin like 15-3 out of the last 18 voters?

 

[McEntire]

Thank you, PhDreve Kornacki (name credit @Pichtonia)

 

[PhDre]

I would suggest poll watchers do the following:
Break down the election into "thirds" based on your expected turnout. Let's say we hit 55 votes, which is what occurred in October 2023. How does the candidate perform in each of the "thirds" of the race?

I'll give you a hint about the October 2023 election - each "third" of the race was 18 voters. JayDee won each "leg" of the Election (13-5, 10-8, and 15-3).

JayDee is getting beat right now in the first third. There's no question this is actually a competitive race for JayDee. however, is the hole too big for him to overcome that margin with his "final third?" Again, I believe that incumbents running against RoE are uniquely positioned to perform well with late voters, so JayDee is not by any means out of his race. Look at the final third of his October 2023 race against RoE - he won 15-3! That's a twelve point swing that would erase his current deficit. if he gets a final third like that, expect JayDee to be sworn this time tomorrow.

Alright, I went ahead and reran the ol' calculations here. There have been 39 votes, with ROE winning 24-15 so far. That's a little more than 2 hours elapsed in our 24 hour race.

39 votes is almost exactly two-thirds of the October 2023 Presidential Election turnout. This election might already be two-thirds over! Sidenote: I remember when people told me that open voting was less dramatic than secret voting.. pfft... Anyway, let's break down the race compared to the October 2023 race:

JayDee needs to do quite well with our remaining voters. The question is how many JayDee voters are out there, and can he get that "last third surge" that he used to beat RoE last time?

I look for that "last third" to possibly deliver a victory for the incumbent.

Whoever said this knew what they were talking about!

 

[McEntire]

I would suggest poll watchers do the following:
Break down the election into "thirds" based on your expected turnout. Let's say we hit 55 votes, which is what occurred in October 2023. How does the candidate perform in each of the "thirds" of the race?

I'll give you a hint about the October 2023 election - each "third" of the race was 18 voters. JayDee won each "leg" of the Election (13-5, 10-8, and 15-3).

JayDee is getting beat right now in the first third. There's no question this is actually a competitive race for JayDee. however, is the hole too big for him to overcome that margin with his "final third?" Again, I believe that incumbents running against RoE are uniquely positioned to perform well with late voters, so JayDee is not by any means out of his race. Look at the final third of his October 2023 race against RoE - he won 15-3! That's a twelve point swing that would erase his current deficit. if he gets a final third like that, expect JayDee to be sworn this time tomorrow.

Alright, I went ahead and reran the ol' calculations here. There have been 39 votes, with ROE winning 24-15 so far. That's a little more than 2 hours elapsed in our 24 hour race.

39 votes is almost exactly two-thirds of the October 2023 Presidential Election turnout. This election might already be two-thirds over! Sidenote: I remember when people told me that open voting was less dramatic than secret voting.. pfft... Anyway, let's break down the race compared to the October 2023 race:

JayDee needs to do quite well with our remaining voters. The question is how many JayDee voters are out there, and can he get that "last third surge" that he used to beat RoE last time?

I look for that "last third" to possibly deliver a victory for the incumbent.

Whoever said this knew what they were talking about!

So, to be clear here, if turnout is the same as last time, and if the "last third" break the same as they did last time (83%), then the remaining votes would split 11-2.

Meaning that, if those assumptions hold (and they are quite hefty), JayDee would net 9 votes through the end of the election. Right now, he's behind by 10 votes. Meaning if this election is anything like the last one, it's going to be a squeaker.

 

[PhDre]

The math is getting really hard for JayDee now. The margin is 11 after 3 hours and change. If turnout equals the October 2023 election, he would need every single remaining vote. Of course, higher turnouts are more feasible, but for example in a 70 vote election he would need 74% of outstanding votes to win. All of this is doable - it's possible that RoE voters didn't vote last election or are marginal turnout voters. But that "last third" that came in the clutch for JayDee last election needs to show up. And it needs to be an election with >55 voter turnout for JayDee to be victorious.

Edit: Another RoE vote - now at 28 votes. Remember that RoE received 16 votes last time around. JayDee is now in a scenario where a 55 vote election is not enough to win or tie. He must get 100% of outstanding votes in a 57 vote turnout election to win.

 

[McEntire]

And we have a statement from President JayDee:

Vor and I are excited to see such an engaging election, especially after the previous election saw little fanfare. As long as people remain passionate about our democratic process, Europeia will continue to thrive.

Obviously we'd like to win in the first round, but we are grateful for the support we've received so far. At this point I think it's safe to say that RoE will win, and we will be seeing another week of campaigning; Vor and I look forward to being a part of that election and continuing to bring our energy, enthusiasm, and ideas to the table.

For those that voted for us, thank you for your faith and support in us. For those voting RoE, I hope that we will be able to earn your support in a properly competitive election against a wide field of candidates who've already declared their intention to run. This election has affirmed that our future is bright, that our citizens remain commited to our democratic process, and that Europeia continues to be one of the premier Democratic regions in NationStates.

So here we have JayDee conceding to RoE and pledging to fight into the next round of voting. This is major breaking news, and we will have analysis for you ASAP on this developing story.

 

[McEntire]

Now I'd like to get comment from two Europeians who made their public positions known on ROE.

I want to hear from @Sopo, who launched the RoE campaign. Sopo, what were your goals with RoE, do you think they've been accomplished? And what would you say to JayDee?

Second I want to hear from @August De Brus, who said that he found it detrimental to be "demoralizing the only candidate for President." August, do you stand by your assessment of the RoE campaign, and as a newer member, what has this election told you about Europeia?

 

[August De Brus]

Thank you, I don't believe that RoE should be something people consciously campaign for. In my view to hear that people are actively campaigning against you when there are no other candidates must be demoralising. I supported two different bids to be president which both fell apart, why should we support another when we have a candidate willing to step up with experience, policy and the skills to do the job. Further I do want to add that we can't really call this election uncompetitive.

 

[Sopo]

Thanks, McEntire. To be honest, I thought the whole deal was a long shot. I read UPC's platform and regretted that we didn't get to have an exchange of ideas this election. Then I had the happy thought - why not ROE to try again? Of course, if no one else was interested in running, the whole thing would have been fruitless. It didn't pick up steam until a few folks told me they were interested in running, and so we put a campaign of sorts together.

What was my goal? To have an election. To make things interesting. To reinvigorate our democracy. I could not stand two back-to-back uncontested elections, and rightly suspected that UPC's exit likely would have inspired others to run, had it not happened so late. I won't know for sure if my goal was met until we see at least one more ticket stand.

To JayDee: Thank you for coming around to seeing that this campaign was not "anti-JayDee." I think you've done a good job - but I think you'll do a better job if you win against a competing vision. I don't know how I'll vote in the new election or what surprises may unfold. I would not be upset if you won. That's not what this is about - and I think you know that now. I look forward to seeing your brand new platform for the brand new election (loljk).

 

[JayDee]

Thanks, McEntire. To be honest, I thought the whole deal was a long shot. I read UPC's platform and regretted that we didn't get to have an exchange of ideas this election. Then I had the happy thought - why not ROE to try again? Of course, if no one else was interested in running, the whole thing would have been fruitless. It didn't pick up steam until a few folks told me they were interested in running, and so we put a campaign of sorts together.

What was my goal? To have an election. To make things interesting. To reinvigorate our democracy. I could not stand two back-to-back uncontested elections, and rightly suspected that UPC's exit likely would have inspired others to run, had it not happened so late. I won't know for sure if my goal was met until we see at least one more ticket stand.

To JayDee: Thank you for coming around to seeing that this campaign was not "anti-JayDee." I think you've done a good job - but I think you'll do a better job if you win against a competing vision. I don't know how I'll vote in the new election or what surprises may unfold. I would not be upset if you won. That's not what this is about - and I think you know that now. I look forward to seeing your brand new platform for the brand new election (loljk).

 

[ICH]

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EBC Jan. '24 Presidential Election Liveblog
Like a regular blog.... but LIVE!!
​

---

---

This is EBC Editor McEntire coming to you live from downtown Arnhelm, where we are seeing early results trickle in from this Presidential Election, which has been highly heated in recent days despite there only being one declared candidate.

In case you missed it, President JayDee is running for a historic third term with his running mate the popular Grand Admiral Vor, and for the second election in a row he is facing Re-Open Elections (or RoE) as his opponent, since no other candidate stood. Delegate upc stood only to withdraw for real-life reasons a few days before the vote.

Polls show a tight race between JayDee and Re-Open Elections, which would trigger a new election if it prevailed. A group of citizens led by former President Sopo has launched a campaign for RoE, arguing that we need a "second chance" at this election due to its uncompetitive nature and proximity to the holiday season. JayDee has pushed back strongly on this view, arguing that potential candidates had plenty of time and defending his administration's performance as worthy of a third term.

With only early results in - only 24 have voted thus far - RoE leads with 2/3 of the vote, with 1/3 voting for JayDee. This analyst would caution, though, that we would expect later votes to favor JayDee/Vor, based on how polling results came in. The EBC has reached out to the JayDee/Vor campaign for comment, and will update you once we have that.

For now, we want to bring in two of our expert EBC analysts.

First, correspondent @ICH. ICH, what has been your perspective on the results so far and on the election overall? Has JayDee made his case for a third term, in your opinion? And what do you think is the opinion on the ground about RoE?

Next, we'll bring in @PhDre. Dre, you had some interesting speculations in #grandhall in Discord about what we could see in terms of turnout in this election. What do these early results tell you about what we could see in terms of turnout, and what the eventual result may be?

We will bring you ongoing coverage of this election as votes come in, and please feel free to provide your own punditry below!

I must say I am not at all surprised with the results as they stand now. From the debates, it seemed like a sizeable majority of the active voter base were in agreement that a second non-contested election would be a blow to Europeia’s politics as it deprives the region of the opportunity to evaluate contesting platforms and constructively debate them, and then choose which is the best path forward for the region. Even some of JayDee’s supporters have actively explored the idea of voting RoE to allow for a more competitive election later. RoE proponents were smart into pitching the whole debate as “do you want a competitive election or not” rather than “do you want to see a change or do you want to see JayDee remain?” The later would have been too polarizing and centered around the merits of JayDee’s campaign, and thus JayDee would have been in a better situation to defeat RoE. It might have even evoked sympathy for JayDee.

I believe JayDee has done a good job with regards to effectively communicate to the region about his administration’s successes over the two terms. But I think with a strong opponent in the re-run, that wouldn’t be enough. As you might have noticed from the EBC polling, there’s a significant gap between the percentage of people who approve of JayDee’s work and those who would vote for JayDee in any potential situation. This indicates that after two consecutive terms in office, there is a chunk of the citizenry who wants to see a new face in office. In fact, I have even seen some people privately say that they are going to go for any new face other than JayDee (which I don’t necessarily agree with). Being a two-term incumbent, it would be difficult for JayDee to swing those pro-change voters I personally feel. While incumbency has its own advantages, it comes with the limitation in the introduction of newer ideas in the platform (if an incumbent makes their platform all about proposing newer stuff, some voters might start asking them why they had not implemented these newer ideas while they were in office). Furthermore, there’s also a significant gap between the people who approved of JayDee’s work in the first half of this term and in the second half of this term, indicating that a good chunk of JayDee’s present support base might get swayed by a very good campaign from his potential opponents and are not exactly rock-solid JayDee voters. And from the perspective of a voter, I think I am yet to see JayDee’s campaign create a “buzz” that could propell them into office. Maybe, the RoE debate prevented that, you could argue.

Personally speaking, I lean significantly towards voting for JayDee as working closely with him in the Cabinet has shown me how he continues to be the right person for the Presidency. He still has the energy for the position and has been extremely supportive to his cabinet members in helping them fulfill the agendas we had set for ourselves at the beginning of the term.

(Sorry for posting late, I got distracted after writing the first part of this post)

 

[McEntire]

Thank you, August and Sopo, for those enlightening comments. You both make interesting points, and the good news for all sides in this debate is that it appears we will have more time to keep having it. With the election set to go into overtime, I'm sure we will be discussing JayDee's vision and the merits of the decision to choose RoE for the next week.

---

---

EBC Jan. '24 Presidential Election Liveblog
Like a regular blog.... but LIVE!!
​

---

---

This is EBC Editor McEntire coming to you live from downtown Arnhelm, where we are seeing early results trickle in from this Presidential Election, which has been highly heated in recent days despite there only being one declared candidate.

In case you missed it, President JayDee is running for a historic third term with his running mate the popular Grand Admiral Vor, and for the second election in a row he is facing Re-Open Elections (or RoE) as his opponent, since no other candidate stood. Delegate upc stood only to withdraw for real-life reasons a few days before the vote.

Polls show a tight race between JayDee and Re-Open Elections, which would trigger a new election if it prevailed. A group of citizens led by former President Sopo has launched a campaign for RoE, arguing that we need a "second chance" at this election due to its uncompetitive nature and proximity to the holiday season. JayDee has pushed back strongly on this view, arguing that potential candidates had plenty of time and defending his administration's performance as worthy of a third term.

With only early results in - only 24 have voted thus far - RoE leads with 2/3 of the vote, with 1/3 voting for JayDee. This analyst would caution, though, that we would expect later votes to favor JayDee/Vor, based on how polling results came in. The EBC has reached out to the JayDee/Vor campaign for comment, and will update you once we have that.

For now, we want to bring in two of our expert EBC analysts.

First, correspondent @ICH. ICH, what has been your perspective on the results so far and on the election overall? Has JayDee made his case for a third term, in your opinion? And what do you think is the opinion on the ground about RoE?

Next, we'll bring in @PhDre. Dre, you had some interesting speculations in #grandhall in Discord about what we could see in terms of turnout in this election. What do these early results tell you about what we could see in terms of turnout, and what the eventual result may be?

We will bring you ongoing coverage of this election as votes come in, and please feel free to provide your own punditry below!

I must say I am not at all surprised with the results as they stand now. From the debates, it seemed like a sizeable majority of the active voter base were in agreement that a second non-contested election would be a blow to Europeia’s politics as it deprives the region of the opportunity to evaluate contesting platforms and constructively debate them, and then choose which is the best path forward for the region. Even some of JayDee’s supporters have actively explored the idea of voting RoE to allow for a more competitive election later. RoE proponents were smart into pitching the whole debate as “do you want a competitive election or not” rather than “do you want to see a change or do you want to see JayDee remain?” The later would have been too polarizing and centered around the merits of JayDee’s campaign, and thus JayDee would have been in a better situation to defeat RoE. It might have even evoked sympathy for JayDee.

I believe JayDee has done a good job with regards to effectively communicate to the region about his administration’s successes over the two terms. But I think with a strong opponent in the re-run, that wouldn’t be enough. As you might have noticed from the EBC polling, there’s a significant gap between the percentage of people who approve of JayDee’s work and those who would vote for JayDee in any potential situation. This indicates that after two consecutive terms in office, there is a chunk of the citizenry who wants to see a new face in office. In fact, I have even seen some people privately say that they are going to go for any new face other than JayDee (which I don’t necessarily agree with). Being a two-term incumbent, it would be difficult for JayDee to swing those pro-change voters I personally feel. While incumbency has its own advantages, it comes with the limitation in the introduction of newer ideas in the platform (if an incumbent makes their platform all about proposing newer stuff, some voters might start asking them why they had not implemented these newer ideas while they were in office). Furthermore, there’s also a significant gap between the people who approved of JayDee’s work in the first half of this term and in the second half of this term, indicating that a good chunk of JayDee’s present support base might get swayed by a very good campaign from his potential opponents and are not exactly rock-solid JayDee voters. And from the perspective of a voter, I think I am yet to see JayDee’s campaign create a “buzz” that could propell them into office. Maybe, the RoE debate prevented that, you could argue.

Personally speaking, I lean significantly towards voting for JayDee as working closely with him in the Cabinet has shown me how he continues to be the right person for the Presidency. He still has the energy for the position and has been extremely supportive to his cabinet members in helping them fulfill the agendas we had set for ourselves at the beginning of the term.

(Sorry for posting late, I got distracted after writing the first part of this post)

ICH, I think this is such an interesting comment. You seem to be in an interesting place in terms of this election, noting the strength of the RoE campaign and the desire for a competitive election, but being supportive of JayDee ultimately. Do you think a lot of people would share this view, and would you expect there to be a significant number of RoE voters open to voting JayDee in the second round?

Tomorrow, polls will close, and we will know for sure the hill JayDee has to climb to re-election. Stay tuned for continuing EBC coverage of this historic election, where voters have chosen for the first time in recent memory to re-open elections. We will now head into overtime, and we will have more election coverage to come!

Until then, we want to hear from YOU! What's your take on this election? Have you voted for RoE or JayDee? And why? What do you see in the new election to come? What would you want to hear from potential candidates? We want to know!

 

[Olde Delaware]

#draftsopo

 

[ICH]

Thank you, August and Sopo, for those enlightening comments. You both make interesting points, and the good news for all sides in this debate is that it appears we will have more time to keep having it. With the election set to go into overtime, I'm sure we will be discussing JayDee's vision and the merits of the decision to choose RoE for the next week.

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---

EBC Jan. '24 Presidential Election Liveblog
Like a regular blog.... but LIVE!!
​

---

---

This is EBC Editor McEntire coming to you live from downtown Arnhelm, where we are seeing early results trickle in from this Presidential Election, which has been highly heated in recent days despite there only being one declared candidate.

In case you missed it, President JayDee is running for a historic third term with his running mate the popular Grand Admiral Vor, and for the second election in a row he is facing Re-Open Elections (or RoE) as his opponent, since no other candidate stood. Delegate upc stood only to withdraw for real-life reasons a few days before the vote.

Polls show a tight race between JayDee and Re-Open Elections, which would trigger a new election if it prevailed. A group of citizens led by former President Sopo has launched a campaign for RoE, arguing that we need a "second chance" at this election due to its uncompetitive nature and proximity to the holiday season. JayDee has pushed back strongly on this view, arguing that potential candidates had plenty of time and defending his administration's performance as worthy of a third term.

With only early results in - only 24 have voted thus far - RoE leads with 2/3 of the vote, with 1/3 voting for JayDee. This analyst would caution, though, that we would expect later votes to favor JayDee/Vor, based on how polling results came in. The EBC has reached out to the JayDee/Vor campaign for comment, and will update you once we have that.

For now, we want to bring in two of our expert EBC analysts.

First, correspondent @ICH. ICH, what has been your perspective on the results so far and on the election overall? Has JayDee made his case for a third term, in your opinion? And what do you think is the opinion on the ground about RoE?

Next, we'll bring in @PhDre. Dre, you had some interesting speculations in #grandhall in Discord about what we could see in terms of turnout in this election. What do these early results tell you about what we could see in terms of turnout, and what the eventual result may be?

We will bring you ongoing coverage of this election as votes come in, and please feel free to provide your own punditry below!

I must say I am not at all surprised with the results as they stand now. From the debates, it seemed like a sizeable majority of the active voter base were in agreement that a second non-contested election would be a blow to Europeia’s politics as it deprives the region of the opportunity to evaluate contesting platforms and constructively debate them, and then choose which is the best path forward for the region. Even some of JayDee’s supporters have actively explored the idea of voting RoE to allow for a more competitive election later. RoE proponents were smart into pitching the whole debate as “do you want a competitive election or not” rather than “do you want to see a change or do you want to see JayDee remain?” The later would have been too polarizing and centered around the merits of JayDee’s campaign, and thus JayDee would have been in a better situation to defeat RoE. It might have even evoked sympathy for JayDee.

I believe JayDee has done a good job with regards to effectively communicate to the region about his administration’s successes over the two terms. But I think with a strong opponent in the re-run, that wouldn’t be enough. As you might have noticed from the EBC polling, there’s a significant gap between the percentage of people who approve of JayDee’s work and those who would vote for JayDee in any potential situation. This indicates that after two consecutive terms in office, there is a chunk of the citizenry who wants to see a new face in office. In fact, I have even seen some people privately say that they are going to go for any new face other than JayDee (which I don’t necessarily agree with). Being a two-term incumbent, it would be difficult for JayDee to swing those pro-change voters I personally feel. While incumbency has its own advantages, it comes with the limitation in the introduction of newer ideas in the platform (if an incumbent makes their platform all about proposing newer stuff, some voters might start asking them why they had not implemented these newer ideas while they were in office). Furthermore, there’s also a significant gap between the people who approved of JayDee’s work in the first half of this term and in the second half of this term, indicating that a good chunk of JayDee’s present support base might get swayed by a very good campaign from his potential opponents and are not exactly rock-solid JayDee voters. And from the perspective of a voter, I think I am yet to see JayDee’s campaign create a “buzz” that could propell them into office. Maybe, the RoE debate prevented that, you could argue.

Personally speaking, I lean significantly towards voting for JayDee as working closely with him in the Cabinet has shown me how he continues to be the right person for the Presidency. He still has the energy for the position and has been extremely supportive to his cabinet members in helping them fulfill the agendas we had set for ourselves at the beginning of the term.

(Sorry for posting late, I got distracted after writing the first part of this post)

ICH, I think this is such an interesting comment. You seem to be in an interesting place in terms of this election, noting the strength of the RoE campaign and the desire for a competitive election, but being supportive of JayDee ultimately. Do you think a lot of people would share this view, and would you expect there to be a significant number of RoE voters open to voting JayDee in the second round?

Tomorrow, polls will close, and we will know for sure the hill JayDee has to climb to re-election. Stay tuned for continuing EBC coverage of this historic election, where voters have chosen for the first time in recent memory to re-open elections. We will now head into overtime, and we will have more election coverage to come!

Until then, we want to hear from YOU! What's your take on this election? Have you voted for RoE or JayDee? And why? What do you see in the new election to come? What would you want to hear from potential candidates? We want to know!

Hi! Sorry for the late answer! I certainly think that JayDee has a significant proportion of support among the RoE voters. As I mentioned before, a vote for RoE is certainly not a vote against JayDee since the arguments in favour of RoE were more about the fact that Europeia would have had two un-contested elections in a row and had very little to do with JayDee’s performance. If we look at the JayDee vs RoE poll, 42% of the people voted in favor of JayDee, which is largely in line with the EBC’s prediction that JayDee’s base support is in the 40s territory. However, apart from this 40-42% of the citizenry, there is an additional 30% of the citizenry who were satisfied with JayDee’s performance at the end of this term but were not ready to commit their support to JayDee. It can be argued that those 30% of the citizenry would be open to considering a vote for JayDee since they thought JayDee was doing a great job (A slight chunk of them might be hell-bent on supporting a new face though even if they personally think JayDee is doing good) If JayDee manages to flip even 27-28% of that 30% uncommitted voters while keeping his base support (which is the 42% that voted for him in the first round), he will win. A key factor into determining who wins is the strength of the GOTV groundwork each of the candidates would have in place. If JayDee can manage to communicate the successes of his previous term to every front door in Europeia, it would be very difficult to defeat JayDee. However, I must say the situation is still fluid. All of these calculations would be invalid if an extremely popular and strong second ticket enters the race. With a strong campaign, it would even be possible for that candidate to make some inroads into JayDee’s core voter-base that would make the race even tougher for JayDee. So, it would be difficult to say which way the wind is blowing until we get to know all the candidates that’ll be standing!

 

[McEntire]

Thank you ICH for that analysis, incisive as always. Please also feel free to answer my below question as well!

Now I’d like to bring back @PhDre, now that we have final results in the first round presidential race. Dre, the final results are approximately a 58-42 victory for RoE. While that’s decisive and historic, 42% is a strong starting point for JayDee against an actual candidate. Were these results surprising to you, and what do they say about JayDee’s prospects for victory in the second round?

 

[PhDre]

Now I’d like to bring back @PhDre, now that we have final results in the first round presidential race. Dre, the final results are approximately a 58-42 victory for RoE. While that’s decisive and historic, 42% is a strong starting point for JayDee against an actual candidate. Were these results surprising to you, and what do they say about JayDee’s prospects for victory in the second round?

I think JayDee is the favorite, particularly given no one has actually stood yet! 42% is a very healthy place to start from, if you think all of that 42% is going to "stay home" in a second round. Of course I can imagine some incredible candidates who would eat into that base of support, so there no guarantees for the incumbent.

At the same time, yes I was surprised by the outcome. No candidate has ever lost to "Reopen Elections" before, and JayDee claimed to be trying to win in the first round. To come up short is frankly pretty surprising given it's never happened before. Was this loss due to a somewhat unique timing of the standing period / election, which fell over the Christmas break for many Europeians? Or is there broader concerns about the state of Europeian democracy given this is the second uncontested Presidential election in a row? Is there specifically "JayDee fatigue" after a fairly weak first half of the term going into election season? There are a lot of unknowns here, but there will be more clarity if and when opposition candidates run. I believe beating serious candidates is very important for a successful term, so bring out the big guns and let's have a show.

 

[Olde Delaware]

JayDee is the favorite cause no one has stood yet? Its been less than 24 hours lol what