Vol. VI: Pre-Presidential Polling: GK Enters Re-Election Bid Extremely Strong, but Not Invincible

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Pre-Presidential Polling: GK Enters Re-Election Bid Extremely Strong, but Not Invincible

by UV & Gem


The Didgeridoo conducted a Presidential pre-standing poll from January 25, 2024 to January 28, 2024. In total, the poll received 29 respondents. What follows are the results of this poll with some analysis and commentary.​




Incumbent Reelection



We first asked respondents whether they would support a re-election campaign from the incumbent President, Grea Kriopia. By a wide margin, 82.8% percent of respondents indicated that they believed Grea Kriopia should run for re-election, including almost half of respondents who indicated a non-leaning yes response. When forced to choose between yes or no, the percentage of respondents supporting a re-election campaign increased to 86.2%.​

While we are still weeks away from the next election, one thing is abundantly clear: the incumbent President enjoys a significant level of popularity in the electorate and will likely have a head start in the upcoming campaign over any potential challengers.​




Hypothetical Matchups


We next asked respondents to indicate their preferred candidate in hypothetical matchups between Grea Kriopia and selected hypothetical candidates. These hypothetical opponents were chosen at the discretion of the pollster under the belief that they were the leading potential candidates for the upcoming election.​

In all matchups but one, Grea Kriopia received a majority level of support. The only exception was Sincluda, GK’s current Vice President (GK still received a plurality of support). Perhaps the best piece of news for any challengers is a high level of soft support for GK across the board in many matchups: the share of respondents who indicated “definite” support for GK hovered around 25% in most matchups.​

In maybe the most striking result of this question, GK’s former President, upc, received almost no support in a hypothetical matchup between the two while over 80% of respondents indicated a level of support for GK. While upc’s Presidency is regarded as one of the best in Europeian history, there is a clear and decisive level of fatigue among the electorate when it comes to the idea of upc taking up the mantle again in the upcoming election.​

HEM checked in with the highest share of respondents indicating that they would “definitely” vote for him in a hypothetical matchup. While the share is still relatively small (17.2%), it is still a significant number that indicates a potential level of strength should HEM decide to run. Together with Ervald and Vor, these three are generally in the best position to run (minus the incumbent VP), with a level of combined support for GK in these matchups under 60%.​




Who Should Run?


RankCitizen%Prev. RankPrev. %Rank Δ
1Grea Kriopia79.3%163%-+16.3%
2Sincluda75.9%548.1%+3+27.8%
3Ervald58.6%2029.6%+17+29%
4Andusre55.2%1733.3%+13+21.9%
5HEM51.7%2029.6%+15+22.1%
6Vor48.3%451.9%-2-3.6%
7PhDre44.8%644.4%-1+0.4%
8JayDee41.4%2029.6%+12+11.8%
9Calvin Coolidge37.9%644.4%-3-6.5%
9Gem37.9%----
9Rand37.9%1437%+5+0.9%
9SkyGreen37.9%1437%+5+0.9%
13Sopo34.5%2029.6%+7+4.9%
14Forilian31%2525.9%+11+5.1%
14Kazaman31%644.4%-8-13.4%
16Istillian27.6%163%-15-35.4%
16Lloenflys27.6%644.4%-10-16.8%
16Maowi27.6%644.4%-10-16.8%
16Sanjurika27.6%1733.3%+1-5.7%
20Prim24.1%1437%-6-12.9%

We finally asked respondents to indicate who they believed should run for President in the upcoming election. Presented with a full list of active citizens, respondents were allowed to choose any number of individuals for this question. Based on responses, prospective candidates can be broken into a few tiers:​

Tier 1: The Incumbents
  • Grea Kriopia (79.3%)
  • Sincluda (75.9%)
In an obvious show of incumbent advantage and popularity, the sitting President and Vice President both top the list of potential candidates by a wide margin. Should they choose to run for re-election, GK and Sincluda would likely enter the race with a significant advantage over any challengers.​


Tier 2: …But If They Don’t Run?
  • Ervald (58.6%)
  • Andusre (55.2%)
  • HEM (51.7%)
If, however, they choose not to run, who’s next in line? Minister of World Assembly Affairs Ervald leads the charge with the highest share of respondents encouraging him to run beyond the current incumbents. Joining him is a fellow Minister, Andusre (Grand Admiral), and Europeia’s founder, HEM. While still serving as People’s Assembly Chair, HEM has largely been out of Executive government in recent memory, making his performance that much more notable. All three make up the remaining potential candidates who received the support of at least half of respondents.​


Tier 3: Dark Horses
  • Vor (48.3%)
  • PhDre (44.8%)
  • JayDee (41.4%)
As we enter this next tier, we look more at the candidates who might run in a more open field (particularly if the incumbents decide not to run). One of those best positioned in hypothetical matchups, Vor, leads the way in this tier and could very well continue to improve his standing in the weeks to come. After recently appearing in the EBC’s Arnhelm 8, PhDre also retains a significant level of potential support for a Presidential run. JayDee also maintains a healthy level of support in the electorate, whose previous Presidency was one of the most consequential in recent memory.​


Tier 4: On The Radar
  • Calvin Coolidge (37.9%)
  • Gem (37.9%)
  • Rand (37.9%)
  • SkyGreen (37.9%)
  • Sopo (34.5%)
While this group enjoyed a lower level of support, the level is likely significant enough that consideration of running for the Presidency would not be out of the question, particularly with a strong campaign and compelling platform. This group in particular comes from all over the place, from Ministers (Gem, Sopo) to former Senators (Calvin Coolidge, Rand) to the Chancellery (SkyGreen). There is also the fact that this tier includes four former Presidents, which likely provides a certain base level of support, particularly given the popularity of many of their administrations.​




◆​



While it remains to be seen who will run, one thing is quite clear at this moment: Grea Kriopia enjoys a leg up on any potential challengers. That said, there are certainly still candidates waiting in the wings that, in the right political environment, can certainly make a push for 34 Goldenblock Avenue. With the standing period just a few weeks away, the state of this election will come into focus soon as candidates weigh their options and craft their platforms.​




xXx
 
Thank you for putting this together, these are very interesting results.
 
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Reactions: Gem
No president is invincible, but if you’re looking to run for President, unless GK has a severe screw up between now and standing, you’re not winning.

That’s the reality of the situation politically, and I can’t really see a competitive or close election happening for a long, long time
 
No president is invincible, but if you’re looking to run for President, unless GK has a severe screw up between now and standing, you’re not winning.

That’s the reality of the situation politically, and I can’t really see a competitive or close election happening for a long, long time
I think that's a pessimistic take. One of the reasons that GK won the December election so decisively is that she ran a well-oiled, high-octane GOTV machine, and the other candidates... didn't really do that, to the best of my recall (I may be wrong!).

GK is definitely in a strong position, but I definitely don't believe that there isn't any room for a challenger to at least contest the election. These polls aren't necessarily a great indicator of what will actually happen in an election, because people are looking at these potential candidates in isolation from any kind of campaign, and also because they really only gauge support among the active citizenry.
 
I frequently feel compelled to remind people that both times where a poll like this proceeded my election, I failed to get above 50% of respondents both times and my competitors got a minimum of 70%.

These are a good indicator of who will have the head start, but nothing beats a good campaign.
 
I frequently feel compelled to remind people that both times where a poll like this proceeded my election, I failed to get above 50% of respondents both times and my competitors got a minimum of 70%.

These are a good indicator of who will have the head start, but nothing beats a good campaign.
Realistically speaking your election happened in a very different political and cultural situation than we have right now which did have a big impact on your races. I simply don’t see a similar event happening here with the electorates approaches towards incumbency and the restriction of the Overton window that’s occurred in the years since your presidency
 
No president is invincible, but if you’re looking to run for President, unless GK has a severe screw up between now and standing, you’re not winning.

That’s the reality of the situation politically, and I can’t really see a competitive or close election happening for a long, long time
I think that's a pessimistic take. One of the reasons that GK won the December election so decisively is that she ran a well-oiled, high-octane GOTV machine, and the other candidates... didn't really do that, to the best of my recall (I may be wrong!).

GK is definitely in a strong position, but I definitely don't believe that there isn't any room for a challenger to at least contest the election. These polls aren't necessarily a great indicator of what will actually happen in an election, because people are looking at these potential candidates in isolation from any kind of campaign, and also because they really only gauge support among the active citizenry.
I think there will be a chilling effect of who’s running when the incumbent is running again and the only person who has a real statistical shot of winning is the Vice President who is seeking reelection.

Couple that with a polling error where we could reasonably add a 10-15 point boost to GK’s already high numbers and I think we’re just looking down the barrel at another non competitive election by the end of it.

If you have presidential ambitions, your best best is to not run until there’s no high executive incumbents in the race, and Vor’s drop after losing two elections this year proves that.

There’s no identifiable upside to running in a deeply unfavorable environment vs waiting for a more level field.
 
Quite a good article! Really love the style

However, drawing definitive conclusions for this is a bit of a daunting task.

We're too far away from the election, and many people likely lean GK simply because she was the only one so far to say she'll be running. Once a ticket does present itself we will likely see a shift in polling numbers as things get real.
 
I'm going to quibble a bit about the first part of this poll/article. The question asks "should GK run for re-election" and yet the article interrupts these results as "86.2% support a re-election campaign." I answered "yes" GK should run for re-election because I think she's had a pretty solid term and is more than deserving of the opportunity to present her case for a second term, but that doesn't mean I'm necessarily supportive of re-election. At this point I would definitely be happy to consider a challenger ticket and would be open to voting for that ticket. The hypothetical match-ups are the place where you can fairly suggest that GK currently leads the race.

I think JL does have a bit of a fair point as well. While I do agree with others who have pointed out that polls aren't always reliable and that we've seen upsets before, I think he may be partially right about the current political climate. I think having had Presidents who serve multiple consecutive terms and not just one or two, has moved the Overton Window towards supporting incumbents and against challengers. But I think it's also fair to point out that we've been at the opposite end of the window before, where for a long time Presidents only served one term either because they only ran for one term or because the electorate kicked them out in favour of a challenger.
 
I'm going to quibble a bit about the first part of this poll/article. The question asks "should GK run for re-election" and yet the article interrupts these results as "86.2% support a re-election campaign." I answered "yes" GK should run for re-election because I think she's had a pretty solid term and is more than deserving of the opportunity to present her case for a second term, but that doesn't mean I'm necessarily supportive of re-election. At this point I would definitely be happy to consider a challenger ticket and would be open to voting for that ticket. The hypothetical match-ups are the place where you can fairly suggest that GK currently leads the race.
I will push back a bit and say that the article states respondents are supportive of a “campaign” as posed by the question. (The alternative phrasing that I think you’re implying would be if the article stated “86.2% support the re-election of GK.”) In fact, the sentence immediately prior confirms this and the intent of the question + analysis (and I believe must be factored into the context of that statement, because the two are obviously connected):
By a wide margin, 82.8% percent of respondents indicated that they believed Grea Kriopia should run for re-election

I will make a note to review the clarity of the question or analysis for future publication. but I don’t think it was particularly confusing given, as you said, that you support GK running again even if not decided on voting intention. That was in fact the point of the question and also what the article emphasized.

Appreciate the feedback, though! Especially interesting contribution to JL’s thoughts.
 
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