Tight CoS race shows importance of platform, experience, while Senate race shows clear leader

Monkey

we want YOU to be a dee gee too
Citizen
Chief of State Mega-Poll
Written by Monkey with Poll Input and Advice from Calvin Coolidge
Published 29 April 2020

Here are my results of my recent poll. We had 24 respondents, which was a great turnout! Before we start, I would like to express my gratitude to HEM and Calvin for providing input on the poll question and structure. I also borrowed a few questions from HEM's previous poll to follow up on, so I would like to credit him for coming up with those questions and answer choices. I would also like to provide a big shout out to the radio show tonight that was willing to discuss my results along with the election!

Without further ado, here are the results:

Demographic Information:

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The demographics portion of the poll showed that there was a strong showing by older members, who have been here for 2 years or more. However, it is important to know that there is still a decent amount of newcomers involved with our politics, ranging from 4 that have been here for less than 3 months, as well as a handful in between.

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Regarding the amount of senators, 7 out of 8 answered my poll, with one who preferred not to say. It is possible that all 8 sitting senators responded.

Moving on to the tickets themselves:

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The race looks tight, and it’s clear that a few votes could shift the race completely. Out of the polling it looks like the Malashaan/Dax ticket received 13 votes, beating Sopo/Maowi by 3. 1 voter was unsure. If I had added leaning options to the question, the poll may have returned a different image rather than poll-takers being forced to solely select one ticket.

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In terms of other tickets to support, incumbent Pichtonia received the most votes, nearly half of the responses would have liked to see another run from him. Other notable options included Darcness, Bowzin, Calvin Coolidge, Aexnidaral*, Prim, Kuramia, HEM, Olde Deleware, and Isaris. 6 responses also responded that they were satisfied with the current field of candidates.

*Note: I would like to apologize for the misspelling of Aex’s name in the poll. The poll listed his name as Aexnideral instead of Aexnidaral.

Comments:
“Don't only 2, add more!”


Moving onto the Issues:

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It looks like there was a wide range of issues that impacted how senators were willing to vote. Previous foreign affairs experience and platform, which both received 21 responses, was not a surprise. Other important factors seemed to be Choice of VCoS, Presence on Discord and the forums, and previous political and leadership experience. Previous experience as CoS and Length of citizenship did not seem to be a significant factor into making a CoS pick.

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In determining the most important issues, and overwhelming 41% pointed to the candidate’s platform as being most important. Other significant factors were previous leadership and foreign affairs experience, which received 5 responses each.

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In terms of specific issues themselves, it appears that promoting foreign affairs engagement was seen as crucial, nearly 87% of respondents identified it as important..

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This appears to have been the most important issue facing the candidates, nearly all respondents marked it as important to them, with a majority marking it as extremely important. It is clear that the people want to elect an executive that is involved and communicates clearly and often with the region.

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Interestingly, despite the push on ministry caps, it looks like the issue of Ministry organization was not one that was emphasized by the respondents. While over 90% of the responses marked it as important to them, over ⅔ of the respondents marked it as only being somewhat important, compared to a quarter that chose extremely important.

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In regards to the Europeian Navy, it seems that many respondents had somewhat of a lackluster attitude for it. Over half of the respondents noted that it was important to them, but there was a small fraction that identified this issue as somewhat unimportant, or neither important nor unimportant. In the absence of a Grand Admiral this term, these responses may be telling regarding Europeian’s attitudes towards the navy.

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Over a third of responses showed that they would prefer to have a CoS with experience in both foreign affairs and leadership, with a quarter of responses pointing to being comfortable with only experience in one area each. Despite the encouragement of newcomers to get involved and run in elections, only 3 responses marked that they would be comfortable with a CoS with relatively little foreign affairs or leadership experience.

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An overwhelmingly majority of responses showed that a choice of VCoS would have some impact on their decision, however, there was a scarce showing of people who felt that it would have a large impact on their decision. Perhaps Europeians are looking for balance in a VCoS candidate, but it may not be a complete dealbreaker on a solid ticket.

Comments:
"Maowi has much more experience in Foreign Affairs than DAX does. DAX is an up and comer for the region but given how lackadaisical Mal's activity in foreign affairs has been prior to his run it concerns me that his second in command is not someone who will provide balance to the ticket if something were to happen to him."

Going to the Senate Election:

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It looks like the majority would like to see a younger/newer member in office, however there was still strong support over electing a more experienced member.

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This was the most divisive question of the poll, with approximately half of the candidates deciding that the current sitting senators do not impact their choice, and half marking they do. There seemed to be no obvious correlation between the last two responses, but it may lead Europeians to wonder that given the current Senate with experienced legislators such as Deepest House, Darcness, Prim, Calvin Coolidge, and Lloenflys, that it might be the best time for newcomers to run. Or, on the other hand, maybe that the heavy topics currently under debate in the senate might be best for an old hand to tackle.

Comments:

I do not want a new member who is easily swayed by public opinion or likely to make decisions in the heat of the moment--we already have that in this Senate. I want someone who has a good head on their shoulders and a decent grasp of the region, and right now I think only the older candidates have that.

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Overall, it appears that a candidate’s choice for Chief of State could play a small factor in who they vote for, but it is unlikely to play a deciding role in their vote. The majority of responses marked that it would play a small factor.

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Despite the majority of responses calling for a newer member, it is clear by the polling that McEntire has a commanding lead in the election, with 54% of the responses marking McEntire as their first choice. GraVandius lags behind McEntire by 9 votes, who is followed closely by Darkslayer with 3 votes. Despite the encouragement of newcomers in running for elections, it appears that the electorate is more inclined to vote for someone with more experience.

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On Second choice options, the field is much more diverse, with McEntire capturing only 25% of the vote long with GraVandius and Darkslayer. Other candidates also appear as well.

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These responses seemed to be as predicted, with heavy issues such as the Executive re-merge, ministry, and Direct CoS elections being the most important to the electorate during this election.

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It appears that the executive re-merge is the most important issue for nearly half of the respondents, with the hard cap on ministers and direct CoS election lagging behind. Not surprisingly, there were 0 votes for the Judicature act.

This next section is in regards to personal stances on the issue. Rather than displaying the data, I have compiled it in a format that is much easier to read, since many of the results were simply yes/nos.

Top Priorities and Stances:

Direct CoS Election (5):
  • 1 No comment or N/A
  • 3 For Direct Election
  • 1 Against Direct Election

Executive Re-merge (11):
  • 9 For Merging Executives
  • 2 Against

Minister Cap (8):
  • 1 No Comment or N/A
  • 3 For Hard Cap
  • 4 Against Hard Cap

It looks like the data shows that the Minister Cap was the most debated and conflicting issue, while the Direct CoS election was heavily supported by those who ranked it as their number 1 concern, and the executive re-merge was generally supported as well.

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The second most important topics showed the same exact breakdowns as the top priority topics. It looks like the Executive Re-merge is really important to a lot of people and no one cares about the Judicature Act! Who would have guessed.

Again, the next section is compiled manually in order to display the data in a more organized way.


Direct CoS Election(5):
  • 5 For Direct Election of CoS

Executive Re-Merge(11)
  • 2 N/A or No Comment
  • 7 For Merging Executive
  • 2 Against Executive Re-Merge


Minister Cap:

  • 1 N/A or No Comment
  • 2 For imposing a Cap on Ministers
  • 5 Against Imposing a Cap on Ministers


Once again, it appears that the Direct CoS election is universally supported, with strong support behind the Executive Re-merge as well. The Minister Cap was again the most conflicted area, with a preference of not imposing a cap on the number of appointed Ministers.

" Sopo's ticket has the best balance on both ends. I have concerns about activity for both Maowi and Sopo but when it comes to being cos those two have been far more active in the fa arena than Mal and Dax have."

"I believe that the merge is not currently structured in a way that will benefit the region with regards to giving new people a chance to lead without needing FA experience."

Here are my results! Please let me know if you have any questions on the polling, or constructive criticism. If you are interested in doing further analysis or looking at the raw data, please let me know and I can share a copy of the raw data with you, as my analysis was rather brief. Enjoy!!!!!

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Excellent work, Monkey. Amazing data that adds a lot of depth to the discussion of both races.
 
I am wondering if the recent Papal Election had an influence on the CoS election.
 
Excellent work, Monkey. Amazing data that adds a lot of depth to the discussion of both races.

Thank you! I'm looking forward to the radio show tonight, I can't wait for the analysis and discussion.


I am wondering if the recent Papal Election had an influence on the CoS election.
Probably not. I think the Papal Election was more of a cultural activity/joke and I don't see how it could have an impact on the CoS election.
 
This is top-notch polling Monkey. Thanks for the data - it's very interesting and constructive!!
 
Great polling Monkey! Very interesting.
 
Great polling Monkey! Very interesting.
Thanks peeps!

Well, I'm certainly gratified by these results, but as the old adage goes "the only poll that matters is on election day"

I think so too! I hope we get a good turnout on election day, the results on this poll were pretty close and I think a few more people could have shifted the numbers.
EDIT: Forgot this was elected by the senate. oops
 
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