The Massive Divide Between Aspiring Presidents and Aspiring Veeps, WAA Is Not a Stepping Stone, Grand Admirals Are Good at Winning Elections, Interiors Is Unpredictable, and Other Fun Numbers
Written by Pland Adanna
This data includes every presidential and vice presidential candidate since the executive remerge except for joke candidates and candidates who withdrew their standing. It only looks at candidates post-executive remerge in an attempt to focus on Europeia’s modern political landscape. The data counts how many times each candidate has held each ministerial position (or some equivalent) before running. People who ran in multiple elections were counted for each election in which they ran because candidates have likely held more positions in between elections, and every time a candidate who has served as, say, Grand Admiral, runs is another time that the region has seen a former Grand Admiral run, regardless of whether they’ve run before. Partial terms were counted the same as full terms. The count of candidates who had held a given position was divided by the total number of candidates.
A caveat of this data is that the Ministries of Radio and World Assembly Affairs are newer than the others, so they have a smaller sample size. They were still included and compared with other positions because, regardless of the number of opportunities available to serve in a position, a candidate has either held the position or not. The purpose of this article is to examine the experiences of candidates before they run for president or vice president, so all positions are compared to one another despite the limitations of this view.
Notes about some terms throughout this article:
- “Justice” refers to the former ministry, not the judicial position
- “elected presidents” refers to people who were directly elected to be president (a.k.a. victorious presidential candidates), excluding vice presidents who were elevated to the presidency
- ”Other” refers to any position that doesn’t fit very well within the eight other categories, including Director of the Government Accountability Office, Minister of Employment, Councillor of External Engagement, Councillor of Coordination, and Minister without Portfolio.
There is a massive divide between the experiences of presidential candidates and vice presidential candidates:
Among its candidates for high executive office, Europeia has a gap in ministerial experience between its aspiring presidents and aspiring vice presidents. Presidential candidates have much more frequently served as Minister of Communications or some equivalent (a 22% gap between presidential and VP candidates), Grand Admiral (an 18% gap), and Attorney General (14%), while vice presidential candidates have more frequently managed Radio (14%), Foreign Affairs (11%), and World Assembly Affairs (11%). Former leaders of Interior and Culture have been much more evenly split, with a 4% and a 0% gap, respectively.
WAA is not a stepping stone:
At least since the executive remerge, holding the office of Minister of World Assembly Affairs (or some equivalent) has not led to the pursuit or attainment of higher executive office in Europeia. Only 9% of presidential and vice presidential candidates since the executive split have served as Minister of World Assembly Affairs (or some equivalent) prior to running. This position was the lowest by far, with the Minister of Interior position (and its equivalents) coming in as the second-lowest with 24%. Additionally, candidates who had already been Minister of World Assembly Affairs (or some equivalent) disproportionately ran for vice president rather than president. 15% of vice presidential candidates since the executive remerge have handled Europeia’s World Assembly Affairs, while only 4% of presidential candidates have done so. No presidential candidate who has led the Ministry of World Assembly Affairs has ever won a post-executive remerge election. However, Skygreen24’s brief presidency after Lime’s resignation gave Europeia its first and only former-MoWAA president, at least since the executive remerge. While, at first glance, this may seem to be a product of the relative novelty of the Ministry of World Assembly Affairs, the Ministry of Radio, which was established at about the same time and actually has had even fewer unique ministers, does not see similar results.
Grand Admirals win a lot of elections:
The opposite of WAA, serving as a Grand Admiral appears to be a strong stepping stone for high executive office. In fact, 55% of winning candidates since the executive remerge have served as Grand Admiral, compared to 33% of losing candidates, a 22% gap. The closest gap to that is 13% for Minister of Foreign Affairs or some equivalent, where 43% of losing candidates have held the position compared to 30% of winning candidates. Not only that, but 80% of all our elected presidents since the executive remerge have served as Grand Admiral before taking office.
Interior is unpredictable:
The position with the fewest patterns is the Minister of Interior and its equivalents. Former holders of that office were pretty evenly split between both winning and losing candidates and presidential and vice presidential candidates. 25% of winning candidates have led Interior, while 27% of losing candidates have done so. Additionally, 22% of presidential candidates have led Interior, while 26% of vice presidential candidates have done so. The Minister of Interior has the second fewest number of former officeholders running for higher executive office, so it’s possible the smaller sample size makes patterns less visible– or there’s a legitimate (and mysterious) lack of pattern.
Other Fun Numbers:
Candidates Have More Commonly Led: ERN (39%), Radio (37%), AG (37%), Foreign Affairs (35%), Communications (33%), Culture (30%)
Candidates Have Less Commonly Led: Interior (24%) and WAA (9%)
Winning Candidates Have More Commonly Led ___ Than Losing Candidates: ERN (55%-33%), Comms (40%-33%), WAA (15%-7%), Culture (35%-30%)
Losing Candidates Have More Commonly Led ___ Than Winning Candidates: FA (43%-30%), Radio (43%-35%), AG (37%-30%), Interior (27%-25%)
Presidential Candidates Have More Commonly Led ___ Than VP Candidates: ERN (48%-30%), Communications (44%-22%), AG (44%-30%)
VP Candidates Have More Commonly Led ___ Than Presidential Candidates: Interior (26%-22%), WAA (15%-4%), FA (41%-30%), Radio (44%-30%)
Culture Tied Between Presidential and VP Candidates (30%-30%)
Elected Presidents Have Most Commonly Led: ERN (80%), AG (60%)
Elected Presidents Have Somewhat Commonly Led: Foreign Affairs (40%), Radio (40%), Communications (40%), Interior (30%), and Culture (30%)
Elected Presidents Have Never Led: WAA (0%)