Sopo and DAX Lead In Race That's Already Been Shaken Up

[HEM]

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"Sopo and DAX Lead In Race That's Already Been Shaken Up"
HEM
Managing Editor

With a new ticket in the race, and an old ticket seeing a switcheroo there have already been major changes in the race for First Minister. However, ENN's first tracking poll gives an initial glimpse of the state of the race and how things may develop.

How would you characterize your current candidate support in the race?
n=22

STRONGLY XECRIO / GRAVANDIUS: 9.1%
LEAN XECRIO / GRAVANDIUS: 9.1%
STRONGLY SOPO / MAOWI: 13.6%
LEAN SOPO / MAOWI: 13.6%
STRONGLY DAX / BOWZIN: 18.2%
LEAN DAX / BOWZIN: 22.7%
UNDECIDED: 13.6%

With undecideds included, Dax leads the field with 40.9% of the vote. Sopo follows behind with 27.2%, and Xecrio trails but remains competitive with 18.2% of the vote. These results should be encouraging to the Sopo ticket (which is now the Maowi ticket) as some pundits suspected that ticket may start in a weaker position.

When undecideds are pushed to make a choice, the state of the race changes in Sopo's favor:

Let's say today is election day and you have to make a decision. How do you vote?

XECRIO / GRAVANDIUS: 18.2%
SOPO / MAOWI: 40.9%
DAX / BOWZIN: 40.9%

When forced, all 13.6% of the undecided vote breaks for Sopo. In this formulation of the question, Xecrio is in a much weaker position, making him the initial underdog behind Sopo and Dax.

That being said, all candidates have a path to victory as of today. Over 50% of the surveyed population is at least considering each of the three candidates:

Select all the candidates are you considering voting for:

XECRIO / GRAVANDIUS: 59.1%
SOPO / MAOWI: 68.2%
DAX / BOWZIN: 63.6%

Finally, the region seems to be largely satisfied with the candidate field as it stands:

How happy are you with your current choices for First Minister and Second Minister?

VERY SATISFIED: 50%
SATISFIED: 27.3%
SOMEWHAT SATISFIED: 18.2%
NOT SATISFIED: 4.5%

Contrary to what pundits may have expected, in our poll Sopo overperforms with new members while Dax and Xecrio do slightly better with older members. It's possible that older members (even more than newer members) believe that fresh leadership is necessary. It's also possible that very old members may recall some of Sopo's more controversial terms. Overall, the generation gap is currently smaller than usual, and we'll see if that changes closer to the election or when we get larger sample sizes on these tracking polls.

Let's say today is election day and you have to make a decision. How do you vote?
Members who joined 2007 - 2017
n=14

XECRIO / GRAVANDIUS: 21.43% (+3.23%)
SOPO / MAOWI: 35.71% (-5.19%)
DAX / BOWZIN: 42.86% (+1.96%)

Let's say today is election day and you have to make a decision. How do you vote?
Members who joined 2018 - 2020
n=8

XECRIO / GRAVANDIUS: 12.50% (-5.7%)
SOPO / MAOWI: 50.00% (+9.1%)
DAX / BOWZIN: 37.50% (-3.4%)

Of course, the impact of a new ticket in the race and the switcheroo between Maowi and Sopo on their ticket is likely to have a significant impact on the race. It will be interesting to see if Maowi's new presence at the top of the ticket helps strengthen their ticket further, or whether a significant contingent of voters were looking for a candidate with more experience — like Sopo — and will now be disappointed.

 

[cuddles]

Youre missing someone important

 

[Calvin Coolidge]

I don't know what pundits you're talking about, my guess was right on the money. Super interesting to see my suspicions confirmed as we move forward with this race, though.

 

[HEM]

I don't know what pundits you're talking about, my guess was right on the money. Super interesting to see my suspicions confirmed as we move forward with this race, though.

whatever! we'll see how the race shapes up!

 

[HEM]

Youre missing someone important

who??????

 

[cuddles]

Youre missing someone important

who??????

My mate cookie

 

[Sopo]

I'm really encouraged by these results. But just to address the switch... Maowi and I weren't totally sure how to arrange the ticket from the beginning, and I think the concerns raised that newer members deserve a shot at the top job are warranted. So, ultimately, it was an easy change to make. We're still a team, and our platform is still a collaboration with each of our ideas and approaches equally represented. Our ticket still represents the best of my experience and Maowi's superb leadership and management skills. While I can't say it's a distinction without a difference, as it does afford the greater opportunity to Maowi (which she deserves), it doesn't change what makes our ticket a winning combination.

Thanks for running this poll, HEM. I hope coverage of this FM election is as fun and robust as the last.

 

[HEM]

Youre missing someone important

who??????

My mate cookie

You declared after the poll started, and I talked about there being a new ticket in the race!

 

[Prim]

I would just like to say that I love seeing how many people have been standing for these recent FM elections. I think we have seen quite a few people stand in the past few elections, even back to Lloen earlier last year, who probably would not have stood, nor had a solid chance, at winning if we still had FA and Domestic combined.

I do agree with HEM that FA (CoS) has been quieter and less hassle since the end of the NPO war, but I still think we are seeing benefits of the Executive Split, at least on the domestic side. But, perhaps a singular focus on FA from the CoS and Councils have helped with a willingness to explore new ideas in FA, which otherwise may not have happened. I hope we'll be pleasantly surprised come the CoS standing thread...

 

[Xecrio]

This is an interesting poll. A lot has changed since the poll came out though, Dax is no longer standing and the Sopo ticket has been switched. For me personally, being in last place doesn't put me down, after all, there's a lot to play for.