Smokin' Poll: Nov '21 Preliminary Polling

Common-Sense Politics

Audentes Fortuna Juvat
Deputy Minister
Honoured Citizen
Citizen
Pronouns
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41 Europeians were polled over a period of about 28 hours this last week on their views pertaining to the upcoming election for the best job in NationStates, President of Europeia. These are the results. Changes from our April poll are shown in parentheses.

How long have you been active in Europeia?

5+ years - 29.3%
2 to 5 years - 26.8%
6 months to 1 year - 19.5%
1 to 2 years - 12.2%
Less than 6 months - 12.2%


Which of these statements best describes you as a player?

I am slightly more interested in political gameplay than social gameplay - 34.1% (+2.1)
I am substantially more interested in political gameplay than social gameplay - 29.3% (-6.7)
My interest in political gameplay and social gameplay is equal - 26.8% (+10.8)
I am slightly more interested in social gameplay than political gameplay - 9.8% (-2.2)
I am substantially more interested in social gameplay than political gameplay - 0% (-4)


These numbers continue to slightly fluctuate in a familiar range. While a 10-point shift to 'equal' may seem significant, the movement we see here simply brings things back to where we were the poll before last which was posted in March.

How satisfied are you with last year's passage of the referendum pertaining to the adoption of the Executive Modernization Act (reversal of the Executive Split)?

Very satisfied - 56.1% (-7.9)
Somewhat satisfied - 24.4% (-3.6)
Unsure - 12.2% (+8.2)
Somewhat unsatisfied - 7.3% (+3.3)
Very unsatisfied - 0% (-4)


Again, these appear to be familiar minor fluctuations. As time passes, more new players will not have the frame of reference to answer this question and it may appear in a hasty reading that approval is dropping when that probably isn't the case.

Should Europeia become a stronghold or a frontier region upon the implementation of the impending NationStates technical update?

Lean frontier - 31.7%
Definitely frontier - 24.4%
Lean stronghold - 19.5%
Unsure - 17.1%
Definitely stronghold - 7.3%


The two pervious polls that deal with this question did not allow for 'leans'. Therefore, these results aren't an apples to apples comparison but the hope is that more nuanced data allows us to draw more nuanced conclusions. Sometime that works out. Sometimes it doesn't. What do you think?

The September 14th poll from Monkey's Musings put support for becoming a stronghold at 71% and becoming a frontier at 25.8%. On October 23rd, the Not-So-Daily Bugle had frontier narrowly leading the way at 48.5% and stronghold at 45.5%. Our data shows support for frontier growing at a modest rate and support for stronghold plummeting. We expect this trend to continue as the administration continues to provide the community with information about how this transition is going to take place.

Is Europeia doing enough to prepare for the Stronghold/Frontier update?

No - 56.1%
Unsure - 24.4%
Yes - 19.5%


Any way you slice it, this is bad news for the Lime administration. However we have seen in recent days a flurry of activity from the administration putting out information about their support for Frontier Europeia, how they came their stance, and their vision for making the change. These numbers could look very different this week than they did last week.

Do you support a full Senate evaluation of the structure and function of the Europeian Intelligence Agency and the role of its Director at this time?

Yes - 58.5%
No - 29.3%
Unsure - 12.2%

Do you support the Senate's ratification of the Treaty of Gear and Star with The Leftist Assembly?

Yes - 63.4%
No - 22%
Unsure - 14.6%


It probably would have been smarter to ask two questions here, one about support for the treaty itself and one about how the President handled the process. I missed the boat on this one. My b. The good news is Europeia has a new partner and Europeians themselves are excited to give it a shot.

How satisfied are you with Lime's performance as President?

Very satisfied - 2.4%
Somewhat satisfied - 19.5%
Unsure - 17.1%
Somewhat unsatisfied - 34.1%
Very unsatisfied - 26.8%


- Since the mid-term there's been a noticeable uptick in Lime's engagement and activity. I still have some reservations but I'm much happier with his performance now.

- Lime admitted his mistakes in the midterm address, which doesn't absolve him, but was a step in the right direction. He's definitely been doing better lately

- Very shaky performance. Lime is trying his best, and to his credit he’s keeping the train on the tracks for a difficult term, but he’s being outshined by his own VP

- Lime went from personable to arrogant and absent, extremely disappointed.

- I think it's very much a visibility thing. He's made the right moves, owned up to his mistakes, and he seems to be handling it well, which I frankly wasn't sure he would when he started.

- People are being overly critical. Sure, Lime hasn't been amazing but it's definitely not as bad as people are saying.

- Executive seems like not a very happening place, though it does look like he’s trying to turn it around which is good.

- As someone involved in every ministry, he has done a lot of work checking in on them. He stuck to his guns on bad decisions, though.

- I think Lime has turned this around partially as it pertains to activity, and I see him putting in the work. Problem is, even with the work he has a lot of tough decisions to slog through. I think replacing NES as DEIA would be hard for any President, but the rollout of Kazaman probably should've been more politically orchestrated (line up endorsers beforehand, got Onder/NES to make some kind of statement as supporters)

- Because 'Lime' has maintained a good stable Europeia in the upcoming of Z-Day.

- Terrible communication, and some bad people management (especially with the forewarnings about Bao that came true very quickly). Generally I feel like there's been poor communication across the board though these last few terms (Kaz as President, Peeps as literally anything, Lime now) so it's not a "this is clearly because of Lime's personality" thing and more a "this is an institutionalized problem" thing. Cards on the table? I didn't vote for the guy. But even as a less-engaged political player I've noticed things like this.

- Activity levels aren't suitable for a president during this critical time. Policies are often not explained well.

There's no way to avoid bringing it up. These numbers are historically bad. We haven't seen anything like it since Calvin's Spring 2017 term which, believe it not, was rated slightly worse. To his credit, Lime has attempted a reset. To his chagrin, it's too little too late. With a member of the Senate anonymously taking shots, through channels, in the media (very brave of them) and the VP taking on the public-facing mantle of leadership, we can't help but feel that the President is politically impotent at this stage and is, along with most, eagerly awaiting his departure from office.

How satisfied are you with SkyGreen24's performance as Vice President?

Very satisfied - 17.1%
Somewhat satisfied - 34.1%
Unsure - 22%
Somewhat unsatisfied - 17.1%
Very unsatisfied - 9.8%%


- SkyGreen is eager, always the first to answer questions, and has tackled a lot this term. Very happy with his leadership this term.

- Very present, active, and honestly the face of this administration.

- Sky has been trying to keep it all together and he’s very active

- Again, visibility. In this case, no specific gripes, no specific words of praise.

- (Vice) Penny for Your Thoughts is great

- Was impressed by his research post on Frontier/Stronghold and feel he's also been stepping up. I don't approve quite yet, but Sky is also getting there.

- Was not here long enough to know what 'SkyGreen24's' as Vice President performance would be.

- He's VP, and he's around/active. Isn't that what we mainly ask of them? L O L

As previously mentioned, it almost feels like SkyGreen is actually the president right now, having taken it upon themselves to be the public face of the Frontier Europeia rollout while being supported by the rest of team, most notably Peeps and Kazaman. Sky's numbers here could actually prove to be deceptively low by the time standing opens should things continue as they are.

How satisfied are you with the quality of the President's executive and judicial appointments?

Very satisfied - 9.8%
Somewhat satisfied - 41.5%
Unsure - 17.1%
Somewhat unsatisfied - 24.4%
Very unsatisfied - 7.3%


- I guess excluding the Bao scandal it wasn't that bad. Very impressed with Calvin's work. The idea of choosing the new contest democratically seemed to have worked well. Darc's idea with a like civilian branch of the ERN should also provide a benefit.

- To have two of your Ministers leave as one thing, to have those Ministries lie fallow and have a third which is basically doing so is...Not Great.

- oof baobab

- Lots of big shoes to fill this term and not many easy choices. I think some rollouts could've been better, but no blunders aside from Baob.

- Was not here long enough.

- The ministers he's had to appoint to replace Bao, Vlaska, etc. seem like good choices in the back half of the term. Not really sold, at all, on Kazaman for DEIA. I'm one of those people who thinks the EIA shouldn't exist anymore, and I also don't think Kazaman can possibly fill the shoes of NES (who among us could?). I'm also not a fan of Kaz for DEIA regardless since he grossly mishandled the Dak situation, and he has already shown a tendency to double down when he may be wrong. Why is that an issue? Because the DEIA is advising the President 1-on-1, typically with zero oversight or outside input (remember, something like the EAAC is only really clued in at the behest of the President), and blinders may be thrown up unintentionally.

Is Europeia on the right track?

No - 39% (+31)
Yes - 31.7% (-48.3)
Unsure - 29.3% (+17.3)


Six months ago, 80% of Europeians perceived the region to be on the right track. We have a 'change' election on our hands.

What is most important to you when considering a candidate for President? Please rank your choices from 1 (most important) to 5 (least important).



Which policy area do you view to be most important when choosing a President? Please rank your choices from 1 (most important) to 5 (least important).



Would you consider voting for someone in a presidential election with whom you did not have an existing social relationship?

Yes - 84% (-2.2)90.2% (+6)
Unsure - 7.3% (-0.7))
No - 2.4% (-5.6)

- Personally my primary way of choosing is via platform and asking questions. I try to leave out my personal feelings. But that's not to say that I don't take into account someone's behaviour in social situations.

- I'd have to get to know them real quick. Typically easy to do with questions on their platform.

- In some ways, I think it's to my benefit not to. I have relationships with quite a few players simply as a result of the work I do outside of Europeia. While it's always nice to be able to vote for someone with whom I'm close, I also then potentially have more which can work against them when I determine my vote. Which is to say: Personal Relationship is a 4th placed issue for me in determining my vote, but it was definitely could be the deciding factor between candidates.

- There are a lot of people I don't know well personally, but I still appreciate their political prowess.

- Because I believe it could be hard making personal relationships with Presidents and stuff honestly.

- You don't need to be someone's best friend to know they're competent. Social relationship matters, I get it, but it's bullshit to let that metric be more than 10% or 15% of your decision-making.

Which individual(s) would you encourage to run for President?

These numbers don't tell us who is most likely to win the presidential election. They do give us a solid indication of the level of initial support these potential candidates could expect before we know anything about running mates or their policy platforms.



Perhaps unsurprisingly, the two gentlemen who at various points in the last cycle were considered to be the favorite to become president are the ones who benefit from the lack of success of that election's upset winner. There's no arguing about the potency of Lloen's popularity or Calvin's experience and political cunning but one could note that other "winners" of this poll this year have registered substantially higher support. That is to say that while Calvin and Lloen are very strong, in fact the strongest, this contest lacks an air of inevitability that others have. Neither will skate assuming a credible challenger steps up.​



Nipping at the heels of Lloen and Calvin are two of the most celebrated figures in Europeian history, arguably the most successful founder in NationStates and Europeia's massively popular all-time greatest president. The numbers sit where they do because they haven't initiated any tangible signals that they're interested. We expect that if they do, things get shaken up in a big way. Will they? Probably not. Should they? That's up to y'all.​



With the exception of Istillian who is an older hand and a presidential term under his belt, in this tier we see multiple politicians from a new generation prove themselves viable presidential hopefuls. We don't know as much about their ambitions as we would hope to nor do we know how SkyGreen's new role within the Lime administration will alter their trajectory in the coming days and weeks. A shrewd candidate with a longer resume will take Monkey or Sky off the board by giving them a place on the ticket. The young guns may however be wise to consider another path.​



We see here who we might expect to, for the most part. In previous polls with more generous respondents, we would likely see perennial second tier stalwarts Kuramia and Pichtonia higher up. Again, a show of wanting the job back would likely see many of these folks' rise. Also, newcomer Sincluda breaks into the conversation for the first time which creates a market for him as a VP candidate, though there are several harder hitting options on the board.​

This polling and subsequent analysis does not seek to disqualify any potential candidates, included or not. I used my own personal judgement and included anyone I viewed to be a serious candidate based on a number of factors.
 
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I see that Darkslayer's stanning of Darcness has finally resulted in him morphing into a John Roberts-shaped version of him :LOL:
 
some very interesting data, and a great analysis as well! looking forward to the radio show
 
I am very excited for the upcoming election!
 
CSP is so good at these, I love them every time. I echo others' excitement about a potentially energetic election. Maybe I've underestimated how impactful the F/S data has been, because those numbers definitely surprised me. Not really much room for debate between the options in this election, I suppose.
 
Great data to have here. I’m always happy to see a race with a relatively open field (as far as this poll indicates). Thanks, CSP!
 
This has made me very excited for the upcoming election. Thanks for the info CSP <3
 
This was really interesting! Great write-up as always, CSP
 
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