Smokin' Poll: June '20 Preliminary Polling

Common-Sense Politics

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A few days ago, 26 Europeians were polled over a period of roughly 38 hours on their views regarding the upcoming election for President of Europeia. It is perhaps important to note that these results were compiled during rigorous debate in the Grand Hall pertaining to measures currently on the Senate floor. Many of the individuals included in this poll participated in those discussions which may or may not have affected their public support. The performance of individual ministries was not included this time around due to very recent polling on subject being made available. Let's jump straight into our findings.

How satisfied are you with the passage of the referendum pertaining to the adoption of the Executive Modernization Act?

Very Satisfied - 38.5%
Somewhat Satisfied - 42.3%
Unsure - 3.8%
Somewhat Unsatisfied - 11.5%
Very Unsatisfied - 3.8%


Though nearly 30% of the region voted against the referendum, only 15.2% of respondents indicate dissatisfaction with its passage which suggests that there is more support for the EMA from those who are a more regular presence on the forum.

How satisfied were you with the Executive Split as it existed prior to the referendum?

Very Satisfied - 11.5%
Somewhat Satisfied - 34.6%
Unsure - 19.2%
Somewhat Unsatisfied - 26.9%
Very Unsatisfied - 7.7%


In April of last year, more folks were becoming unsure of their feelings on the Split but a majority of 59.1% expressed some degree of satisfaction at that time. The delta between those results and these have gone pretty much exclusively into the 'somewhat unsatisfied' category. It seems Europeians had become ambivalent when it comes to the Split but it's perhaps important to note that these numbers do not indicate that the region views the experiment as a failure.

How satisfied are you with First Minister McEntire's executive appointments?

Very Satisfied - 76.9%
Somewhat Satisfied - 15.4%
Unsure - 0%
Somewhat Unsatisfied - 7.7%
Very Unsatisfied - 0%


Satisfaction with executive appointments on both the domestic and external sides are historically high with barely any dissatisfaction expressed and a much higher share describing themselves as 'very satisfied' versus 'somewhat satisfied'. Time will tell if standards have changed or these teams are simply viewed as being exceptionally strong at present.

How satisfied are you with Chief of State Malashaan's executive appointments?

Very Satisfied - 69.2%
Somewhat Satisfied - 26.9%
Unsure - 0%
Somewhat Unsatisfied - 0%
Very Unsatisfied - 3.8%


What is most important to you when considering a candidate for President? Please rank your choices from 1 (most important) to 4 (least important).



For the first time we've asked this question (and the next one) with the option to rank one's choices. Therefore, drawing comparisons is more difficult. What we know, though, is that Europeians put a premium on activity, as they rightly should. However that doesn't mean it's the end all, be all. Platforms and a candidate's record of service weigh in heavily while perhaps debate performance does not. These numbers are fairly consistent with what we've seen over the years. Only a well-rounded campaign can succeed in a presidential election.

Which issues do you view to be most important when choosing a President? Please rank your choices from 1 (most important) to 5 (least important).



Historically, Europeians will tell us in these polls that the external ministries (FA, WA, ERN) are the first consideration when considering a candidate's platform and this remains true but the margin between these issues and those under the purview of Comms/Radio and Interior continues to shrink over the years. What is perhaps surprising is that Culture doesn't have more support on the front end given recent trends in overall activity. One might conclude that this has more to do with the lack of a unifying vision for the Ministry rather than the place it occupies in regional life but that's purely speculation on my part.

Which individual(s) would you encourage to run for President?

Let's get to the fun part!


The sheer number of potential candidates with strong initial support is stunning and shows us that this election is wide open, more than it has been in a very long time but three candidates stand above the rest.

There has been widespread rumor mongering on a potential bid from the former Speaker, Lloenflys. In fact, much of those whispers have come from the man himself. A year ago, this publication dubbed him as the first of his generation to distinguish himself as a political heavyweight. His widespread public support backs this up. Should he pull the trigger and stand for President, he will be an immediate favorite. His focus will be on preventing unforced errors and mitigating any doubts or weaknesses rather than climbing the ladder.

Old hands and former presidents both, Calvin Coolidge and Sopo are hot on Lloen's heels and at least Sopo has expressed interest in a run in the foreseeable future. Calvin, we know, will always be viewed as a frontrunner for high office given his track record of steadfast activity and record of accomplishment in the various ministries he's been involved with (all of them). If any of these three candidates can convince one of the others to join their ticket, this contest may be over before it starts. They are that popular right now.​



I'm going to keep using the word 'historically' in this poll #sorrynotsorry. This is a historically strong, well credentialed second tier. All of them have served in a "top job", whether before or during the Split, and every one of them finds themselves in a circumstance to use their current political position to improve their public support before standing. This is especially true of McEntire who just won a close election to become the last First Minister. A strong term could easily catapult him to the front of this group. Watch these folks closely over the next couple of weeks. I know I will be.​




If there is to be a long shot candidacy with a chance to defy the odds, it will likely come from this group. All would be encouraged to run by more than a third of respondents but there are question marks for all of them. Are they active enough? Is their experience well rounded enough? Are they ready? Do they have any interest in running in the first place? We'll get answers to many of these questions soon.

The only real surprise here is that Grav's support doesn't come in higher, at a time when they're maybe more popular and respected than at any other time in their career.​

Lloenflys - 73.1%
Calvin Coolidge - 26.9%


Lloen absolutely mops Calvin head-to-head. Beating Lloen flatly isn't an option but using his public support to leverage a role for himself in the campaign and during the subsequent term certainly is.

Lloenflys - 56%
Sopo - 44%


This is more like it. While an underdog, Sopo is one of the few people in a position to challenge Lloen at this point.

Sopo - 65.4%
Calvin Coolidge - 34.6%


Lloenflys - 68%
Istillian - 32%

Lloenflys - 50%
Pichtonia - 50%


Holy Pichto, Batman. He's the only potential candidate that our beloved birb doesn't beat in this poll. Big Richard energy here.

Lloenflys - 80.8%
Prim - 19.2%

Lloenflys - 72%
Kuramia - 28%

Lloenflys - 80%
McEntire - 20%


Istillian - 65.4%
Calvin Coolidge - 34.6%

Pichtonia - 73.1%
Calvin Coolidge - 26.9%

Calvin Coolidge - 65.4%
Prim - 34.6%

Kuramia - 69.2%
Calvin Coolidge - 30.8%

Calvin Coolidge - 53.8%
McEntire - 46.2%


Calvin's presidential hopes don't exactly come back to life without Lloen in the race.

Istillian - 64%
Sopo - 36%

Pichtonia - 65.4%
Sopo - 34.6%

Sopo - 61.5%
Prim - 38.5%

Kuramia - 64%
Sopo - 36%

Sopo - 57.7%
McEntire - 42.3%


The prospects for a Sopo run slide quite a bit as well, underperforming against the second tier.

Takeaways

As of right this moment, it's Lloenflys' race to lose but he is not without a couple of strong rivals. Sopo and Calvin's overwhelming support, however, does not translate to success of election day. An inevitable third entry, especially from our second tier, takes the wind out of their sails. The entire second tier, but especially Pichtonia, have every reason to consider jumping in. Using the coming days as a springboard and strategically selecting a running mate will be critical. Questions remain. Will McEntire's performance as First Minister propel him into a stronger position? Will someone from the dark horse category emerge as a standard bearer for a certain niche of our community? Will Lloen stumble? Stay tuned.

This polling and subsequent analysis does not seek to disqualify any potential candidates, included or not. I used my own personal judgement and included anyone I viewed to be a serious candidate based on a number of factors.
 
The poll has arrived! Another outstanding release from the Citizen. Will the full results be made available?

Judging by the included match-ups that second tier of candidates probably is a lot more likely than Sopo or myself to win it all, and that makes this race very exciting for the region, should we get a crowded field. Meanwhile, Lloen's commanding performance is strong, but not unassailable.

P.S. I like how everyone included in the tiers gets their avatar used as the image to represent them, except me, who gets a random panda. Got something against my photoshop? :p
 
The poll has arrived! Another outstanding release from the Citizen. Will the full results be made available?

Judging by the included match-ups that second tier of candidates probably is a lot more likely than Sopo or myself to win it all, and that makes this race very exciting for the region, should we get a crowded field. Meanwhile, Lloen's commanding performance is strong, but not unassailable.

P.S. I like how everyone included in the tiers gets their avatar used as the image to represent them, except me, who gets a random panda. Got something against my photoshop? :p
I couldn't tell if your avvie was for the festival so I went with a different panda, not being able to find your special panda sans the photoshop.
 
The only real surprise here is that Grav's support doesn't come in higher, at a time when they're maybe more popular and respected than at any other time in their career.
I mean personally, I’m not really suprised. I think it would be odd if people wanted me to run over than the more recent heads of the executive. Every person above the dark horse category has served as FM or Chief of State. I guess I would agree that I might be at a peak in personal popularity, but most of that is due to legislative work and private media efforts, that would probably better put me in line to be a minister rather than straight to the top of the executive.

Great Poll CSP! This is fantastic presentation as always!
 
Great poll and presentation of results CSP, I really enjoyed reading this!
 
Amazing piece, worth the wait. I'd love to see the full breakdown of the head-to-heads, though, just for my selfish need to see my own name in things lol.
 
I love the presentation, and thanks for doing all the work with all those names and head-to-heads!

I wonder how much Lloen gained from suggesting his intention to run this early on - it was definitely a good move.
 
Very cool data CSP, I especially like how it was all displayed! Thanks for doing this!
 
Lloen’s sky-high approval as Speaker certainly helped. Great article, CSP!
 
Thank you for the analysis and presentation, it's a very interesting read!
 
This was a fantastic analysis, thank you CSP, I'll be very interested to see what happens in the upcoming race!
 
Some lovely use of graphics here and interesting, if not altogether surprising results. Thanks for taking the time to do all of this CSP!
 
This was a great write-up CSP!
 
Great data and great insights from a pretty hefty poll. I'm not too surprised, but seeing it put in data and matchups is always interesting (like the Pichto v Lloenflys one, quite insane!)
 
Wooow what a lot of data! I could beat Sopo AND Calvin? Daaaaamn!
 
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