Smokin' Poll: First Minister May '19 Preliminary Polling

Common-Sense Politics

Common-Sense Politics

Audentes Fortuna Juvat
Deputy Minister
Honoured Citizen
Citizen
Pronouns
He/Him
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Last week, 22 Europeians were polled over a period of roughly 48 hours on their views related to the upcoming elections for First Minister. There were surprises. Let's get into it.

How satisfied are you with Rand's performance as First Minister?

Very Satisfied - 36.4%
Somewhat Satisfied - 36.4%
Unsure - 9.1%
Somewhat Unsatisfied - 13.6%
Very Unsatisfied - 4.5%

Based on these numbers, Rand should be in a very strong position for a re-election bid. Put a pin in that for now. We'll circle back a little bit later.

How satisfied are you with GraVandius' performance as Deputy First Minister?

Very Satisfied - 18.2%
Somewhat Satisfied - 27.3%
Unsure - 18.2%
Somewhat Unsatisfied - 22.7%
Very Unsatisfied - 13.6%

There is a long trend of the region's vice presidents underperforming their boss and that trend continues here with the deputy first minister. It's always hard to tell if the nature of the position or the current occupant is responsible for that in any given case. There is notable disapproval here, though, which potentially opens the door for a change on the ticket when standing opens.

How satisfied are you with First Minister Rand's executive and appointments?

Very Satisfied - 31.8%
Somewhat Satisfied - 63.6%
Unsure - 0%
Somewhat Unsatisfied - 4.5%
Very Unsatisfied - 0%

If voters end up having any points of disagreement with Rand, they won't include how he's assembled his team. The region is overwhelmingly content with his appointments to this point.

How satisfied are you with the performance of the Ministry of Interior?

Very Satisfied - 45.5%
Somewhat Satisfied - 40.9%
Unsure - 9.1%
Somewhat Unsatisfied - 4.5%
Very Unsatisfied - 0%

I deliberately asked about the performance of the ministries themselves instead of their respective heads to be able to have a conversation more focused on the progress being made by the government and less about how popular the ministers are. You can't, of course, completely divorce the two. Interior ranks third in satisfaction, which can likely be credited to strong recruitment numbers in recent weeks.

How satisfied are you with the performance of the Ministry of Communications?

Very Satisfied - 40.9%
Somewhat Satisfied - 27.3%
Unsure - 9.1%
Somewhat Unsatisfied - 18.2%
Very Unsatisfied - 4.5%

Comms ranks second worst in terms of net approval but these are by no means bad results, simply an indication that there is room for improvement. Special personal shoutout for the resurrection of the Upvote Squad.

How satisfied are you with the performance of the Ministry of Radio?

Very Satisfied - 50%
Somewhat Satisfied - 40.9%
Unsure - 9.1%
Somewhat Unsatisfied - 0%
Very Unsatisfied - 0%

Tied with Culture for both overall and net approval, Radio is riding high. The question is not how do these two ministries fix any issues they have, it's how do they continue to meet high expectations going forward. Doing so will be a challenge.

How satisfied are you with the performance of the Ministry of Culture?

Very Satisfied - 50%
Somewhat Satisfied - 40.9%
Unsure - 9.1%
Somewhat Unsatisfied - 0%
Very Unsatisfied - 0%

How satisfied are you with the performance of the Ministry of Employment?

Very Satisfied - 9.1%
Somewhat Satisfied - 22.7%
Unsure - 45.5%
Somewhat Unsatisfied - 4.5%
Very Unsatisfied - 18.2%

Nobody seems to know what to make of the Ministry of Employment. Almost half of respondents are unsure about how to characterize its progress. Policy aside, this is a leadership problem and a communication problem which is something that needs to be addressed.

How satisfied are you with the performance of the Ministry of Justice?

Very Satisfied - 40.9%
Somewhat Satisfied - 22.7%
Unsure - 36.4%
Somewhat Unsatisfied - 0%
Very Unsatisfied - 0%

How satisfied are you with the outcome of the Executive Split so far?

Very Satisfied - 31.8% (+0.8%)
Somewhat Satisfied - 27.3% (-7.2%)
Unsure - 36.4% (+15.7%)
Somewhat Unsatisfied - 0% (-6.7%)
Very Unsatisfied - 4.5% (-2.4%)

Somehow more folks are unsure about the aftermath of the Executive Split than they were a month ago but disapproval has indeed shrunk. We'll keep watching how these results change in the coming months.

If you could only choose one option, what is most important to you when considering a candidate for First Minister?

Activity - 40.9%
Platform - 40.9%
Record - 18.2%

What would be your second choice?

Platform - 40.9%
Activity - 36.4%
Record - 22.7%

What have you done for me lately? It's probably unsurprising that a candidate's resume loses out to their platform and activity by a substantial margin.

If you could only choose one option, which domestic issues do you view to be most important?

Employment/Interior - 68.2%
Communications/Radio - 22.7%
Culture - 9.1%
Justice - 0%

What would be your second choice?

Communications/Radio - 40.9%
Culture - 27.3%
Employment/Interior - 22.7%
Justice - 9.1%

Also unsurprising results. Candidates would be wise to emphasize these themes accordingly when building their message for May's contest.

Which individual(s) would you encourage to run for First Minister?

The fun and...weird part.


​
Senator Lloenflys continues his meteoric rise in Europeian politics, registering robust support for a run for First Minister. When asked for comment, the first in his generation to distinguish himself as a true heavyweight said, "I'm honored to be considered a contender for the position... I'll take some time to consider whether I think I have an appropriate vision for the position to run and, if I think I do, throw my hat in the ring."

Senator and former Assembly Chair Winged Bear comes home with the second most support for a hypothetical run. We were unable to reach him for comment. Rounding out our lead pack are Prim and CSP, both having been encouraged to run by a full half of respondents. Their interest in a potential bid is unclear though. Prim has seemed to have taken a step back from electoral politics, forgoing re-election to the Senate in the most recent general election. Perhaps we'll find out just how short that break ends up being before long. Having just assumed the speakership and having campaigned on the importance of the next Chief of State election, it is unlikely that CSP enters the fray but he's traditionally not someone who ignores the itch to run for higher office. Time will tell.

​

This is the story of this poll. What in the Seven Hells is going on with Rand? The sitting First Minister enjoys solid, if not stellar, job approval. However, a mere 36.4% of those same respondents would encourage him to run again. Twice the amount of people who think he should run again approve of the job he's doing. It's not obvious what to make of this. It can't be reasonably reconciled but neither can either side of it be discarded. The head-to-head matchups below paint a fuller but still inexplicable picture. For now, Rand is in an unidentifiable tier of his own.

​

The Second Tier is a little further behind the first than what would be considered normal but everyone here has enough support to launch a credible bid should they choose to. The most intriguing may just be Darcness, owing to his solid reputation as a diligent Admin and his executive experience. Aexnidaral's public comments present him as a figure who is looking to consolidate his activity rather than ramp it up and Deepest House has his hands full taking over for Sopo on the Council of State. Drecq hasn't shown any interest in electoral politics of late. Minister Pichtonia may not be the strongest candidate in this group but this humble correspondent sees him as the one most likely to appear on a ticket.



​
After entering the last election as the frontrunner, Izzy's stock has dropped considerably. The deputy FM, Grav, isn't seen as a natural successor. Despite having served multiple times from the bottom of the ticket, Pierce is not yet seen as someone ready to assume the mantle of leadership. This group gives us a lot of interesting tidbits but doesn't really tell us a lot about the upcoming election.

If the election were held today, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Lloenflys - 63.6%
Rand - 36.4%

In this snapshot of time, Rand loses to all the frontrunners. More bad news for him.

Winged Bear - 63.6%
Rand - 36.4%

Prim - 59.1%
Rand - 40.9%

The closest Rand gets in this group is a near 20 point loss.

CSP - 72.7%
Rand - 27.3%

CSP gets the largest margin of victory in a hypothetical head-to-head with the incumbent.

Rand - 54.5%
Darcness - 45.5%

Rand performs much better against the second tier but it's still too close for comfort.

Rand - 54.5%
Pichtonia - 45.5%

Drecq - 54.5%
Rand - 45.5%

Drecq is the only second tier candidate to come out on top.

Rand - 50%
Aexnidaral - 50%

Rand - 63.6%
Deepest House - 34.4%

This polling and subsequent analysis does not seek to disqualify any potential candidates, included or not. I used my own personal judgement and included anyone I viewed to be a serious candidate based on a number of factors.
 
Wow, this does not fare well for Rand when you consider those numbers from the first question. I wonder if this is a communications issue? Maybe he isn't showing off enough, if that can be simplified in such a way. Very interesting results.

Also I don't know about anyone else, but when I voted for the domestic issues, my eye was geared towards what best encourages integration and keeping newcomers around. I didn't want to skew results by voting "other," and then explaining that.
 
We can only speculate. I can definitely see a situation where maybe somebody like me might have good job approval but then have a group of people who just aren't into voting for me (I've been really nice this year though :P). That's a possible scenario but I don't know if Rand has that problem or not. I didn't think he did.

You would think if it was communication, the job approval would suffer and it hasn't. I do see that as having been a weakness for both of our "chief" executives though.
 
Solid polling, CSP, thanks for the article.

Your polls seem to be very well constructed to analyze approval from multiple angles -- your RL political campaign experience definitely shines through here.
Keep 'em comin'. :)
 
This is a stupendous article. I'm not sure what Rand's electoral issue is here. Maybe he's seen as competent, but not inspiring, which leaves people hungry for something new? His term also hasn't been without controversy, but you'd expect that to reflect in the approval rating more if it's indeed dragging him down.
 
It's unclear to me how much of his agenda Rand has been able to accomplish. That progress or lack therefor would likely determine whether or not I would seriously consider supporting his re-election. I support his vision, so it's mostly about execution this point.

The only possible explanation I have for the lack of people saying they'd want to see him run is that they already assume he will.

I'd also like to note that, when passing the executive split, I imagined both the CoS and FM would choose their deputy from among the ministers, not continue to have a separate deputy position. The VP already struggled to find relevance... we're seeing the same with Pierce and GraV perhaps to a greater degree due to the even more limited nature of their public role.
 
Sopo said:
It's unclear to me how much of his agenda Rand has been able to accomplish. That progress or lack therefor would likely determine whether or not I would seriously consider supporting his re-election. I support his vision, so it's mostly about execution this point.

The only possible explanation I have for the lack of people saying they'd want to see him run is that they already assume he will.

I'd also like to note that, when passing the executive split, I imagined both the CoS and FM would choose their deputy from among the ministers, not continue to have a separate deputy position. The VP already struggled to find relevance... we're seeing the same with Pierce and GraV perhaps to a greater degree due to the even more limited nature of their public role.
Click to expand...

Yeah, personally I'm wondering if we should nix the elected deputy positions. When I wrote my draft I had it so each just "designated" a Minister as their deputy, and I kinda still prefer that.
 
HEM said:
Sopo said:
It's unclear to me how much of his agenda Rand has been able to accomplish. That progress or lack therefor would likely determine whether or not I would seriously consider supporting his re-election. I support his vision, so it's mostly about execution this point.

The only possible explanation I have for the lack of people saying they'd want to see him run is that they already assume he will.

I'd also like to note that, when passing the executive split, I imagined both the CoS and FM would choose their deputy from among the ministers, not continue to have a separate deputy position. The VP already struggled to find relevance... we're seeing the same with Pierce and GraV perhaps to a greater degree due to the even more limited nature of their public role.
Click to expand...

Yeah, personally I'm wondering if we should nix the elected deputy positions. When I wrote my draft I had it so each just "designated" a Minister as their deputy, and I kinda still prefer that.
Click to expand...

Definitely good to have a number two, and I can see the argument for keeping the deputy on the ticket, I just don't think the deputy should be a standalone unless the FM/CoS has a specific portfolio for them outside the traditional ones.
 
Honestly, I *much* prefer to have the deputy position as an appointment rather than an elected one.
 
I think it makes a lot of sense to move to a system that Sopo and HEM are describing. It's hard to justify putting talent in the deputy slot and lose the opportunity to have them take a ministry on, especially when you consider that (at least from what I can perceive) the workload of the CoS and FM don't necessitate a deputy.
 
Sopo said:
I'd also like to note that, when passing the executive split, I imagined both the CoS and FM would choose their deputy from among the ministers, not continue to have a separate deputy position. The VP already struggled to find relevance... we're seeing the same with Pierce and GraV perhaps to a greater degree due to the even more limited nature of their public role.
Click to expand...

I concur with all the points made here -- I would also support having the "Deputy" position simply be a designated Minister/Councilor, I liked that part in HEM's draft last fall. I think it would streamline things a fair bit.
 
Prim said:
Sopo said:
I'd also like to note that, when passing the executive split, I imagined both the CoS and FM would choose their deputy from among the ministers, not continue to have a separate deputy position. The VP already struggled to find relevance... we're seeing the same with Pierce and GraV perhaps to a greater degree due to the even more limited nature of their public role.
Click to expand...

I concur with all the points made here -- I would also support having the "Deputy" position simply be a designated Minister/Councilor, I liked that part in HEM's draft last fall. I think it would streamline things a fair bit.
Click to expand...
Personally, It think that's something that can be left up to the First Minister. Myself and Rand have split activities and responsibilities in a way that has been beneficial to the administration, Those extra management duties would certainly not be possible if I was running a ministry.
 
GraVandius said:
Prim said:
Sopo said:
I'd also like to note that, when passing the executive split, I imagined both the CoS and FM would choose their deputy from among the ministers, not continue to have a separate deputy position. The VP already struggled to find relevance... we're seeing the same with Pierce and GraV perhaps to a greater degree due to the even more limited nature of their public role.
Click to expand...

I concur with all the points made here -- I would also support having the "Deputy" position simply be a designated Minister/Councilor, I liked that part in HEM's draft last fall. I think it would streamline things a fair bit.
Click to expand...
Personally, It think that's something that can be left up to the First Minister. Myself and Rand have split activities and responsibilities in a way that has been beneficial to the administration, Those extra management duties would certainly not be possible if I was running a ministry.
Click to expand...
And I think that's fine, so long as we actually see progress toward the goals set out by your campaign.
 
GraVandius said:
Prim said:
Sopo said:
I'd also like to note that, when passing the executive split, I imagined both the CoS and FM would choose their deputy from among the ministers, not continue to have a separate deputy position. The VP already struggled to find relevance... we're seeing the same with Pierce and GraV perhaps to a greater degree due to the even more limited nature of their public role.
Click to expand...

I concur with all the points made here -- I would also support having the "Deputy" position simply be a designated Minister/Councilor, I liked that part in HEM's draft last fall. I think it would streamline things a fair bit.
Click to expand...
Personally, It think that's something that can be left up to the First Minister. Myself and Rand have split activities and responsibilities in a way that has been beneficial to the administration, Those extra management duties would certainly not be possible if I was running a ministry.
Click to expand...

If there was a term where a special project needed special focus by an authority figure, the First Minister could always get around it by appointing a Minister without Portfolio and designating them Deputy :P I just feel like with the scope of work cut in half, having a dedicated deputy is going to be usually superfluous.
 
I'm very thankful for these results. We'll try to make sure that radio continues to rock just as much for the second half of the term!
 
Great article, CSP!

Given I've mentioned this concern over less responsibilities to Kuramia privately, I agree that the CoS/FM should be given the option to designate a councilor/minister as their Deputy rather than having it as a position. I don't think the management activities of either Deputy would be hindered in any way, and if there is a conflict, the buck stops with the CoS/FM. Speaking for myself, with the limited amount of things to do with the FA councils compared to the wider range that internal affairs has, it's difficult to remain visible in this position; I've even been reconsidering against running as Deputy again (if Kuramia chooses to run for re-election) because of the limitations beyond assisting councilors and advising the CoS. When I was Vice President, it was easier to remain visible and interested in the game because there was more to do while overseeing the domestic affairs of the executive, and it was an arrangement that worked. Kuramia and I are working with the best with what we have with me overseeing the occasional Question Times and all, but I think the system would work better with a councilor/minister being designated deputy rather than having a separate deputy entity. Deputies should still be able to help the executive heads manage things, but if there is any hindrance, the executives should be able to handle it since they have less on their plate than the single executive head did.

Despite having served multiple times from the bottom of the ticket, Pierce is not yet seen as someone ready to assume the mantle of leadership.
Click to expand...

Ouch, some expansion on this would be nice.
 
Aexnidaral Seymour said:
Honestly, I *much* prefer to have the deputy position as an appointment rather than an elected one.
Click to expand...
This seems very contradictory to the idea of the 'caretaker Executive'. The stated primary reason for putting the FM in charge of the Council if both CoS and DCoS are gone was that 'the leader should be someone who was elected, not chosen'. At this point, why not allow the old Line of Succession?
 
I'm not sure if I exactly follow what you mean, entirely.
 
FWIW, this isn't pointed directly at you, you just happened to have the most succinct post on the point.

When discussing how succession should work (namely, taking a moment to repeal the Line of Succession Act recently), there was a lot of leaning back on this concept of a 'caretaker Executive' head (the FM taking over the Council, or the CoS taking over the Cabinet as a caretaker) in some cases. The stated reason for leaning on this mechanism (rather than allowing a Council of State to create their own Line of Succession) was that it is more important that an 'Executive head' be someone who was elected, rather than chosen.

Here, the consensus (your post included) implies that allowing the Chief of State to choose their successor is somehow better. That seems a contradiction. Should the CoS choose their successors (appointment), or should the people (election)?
 
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