Smokin' Poll: Apr '21 Preliminary Polling

Common-Sense Politics

Audentes Fortuna Juvat
Deputy Minister
Honoured Citizen
Citizen
Pronouns
He/Him

Following midterm elections for Senate, 25 Europeians were polled on their views pertaining to the impending battle for the presidency. These are the results.

How long have you been active in Europeia?

5+ years - 32% (+7.9)
2 to 5 years - 20% (-7.6)
1 to 2 years - 20% (+6.2)
Less than 6 months - 16% (+9.1)
6 months to 1 year - 12% (-15.6)


Which of these statements best describes you as a player?

I am substantially more interested in political gameplay than social gameplay - 36% (+8.4)
I am slightly more interested in political gameplay than social gameplay - 32% (+4.4)
My interest in political gameplay and social gameplay is equal - 16% (-11.6)
I am slightly more interested in social gameplay than political gameplay - 12% (+1.7)
I am substantially more interested in social gameplay than political gameplay - 4% (-2.9)


How satisfied are you with last year's passage of the referendum pertaining to the adoption of the Executive Modernization Act?

Very satisfied - 64% (+5.4)
Somewhat satisfied - 28% (-3)
Unsure - 4% (-2.9)
Somewhat unsatisfied - 4% (+0.6)
Very unsatisfied - 4% (+4)


How satisfied are you with Calvin Coolidge's performance as President?

Very satisfied - 36%
Somewhat satisfied - 48%
Unsure - 4%
Somewhat unsatisfied - 12%
Very unsatisfied - 0%


- Quiet and effective

- Calvin, perhaps predictably, has chosen to make sure existing programs work well instead of trying to change any paradigms about Europeian government or what our community might be able to accomplish. The trains are running on time. I have trust in the people in charge to do a good job but I also perceive absolutely no creativity or vision for the future. In fairness, activity seems to be dwindling so maybe now just isn't the time for it. I don't know.

- The Cabinet is having a weird time but Calvin is doing well and stepping up when Ministers don’t

- I wish there was more vision and leadership about how to improve our standing on the world stage

- Has been a good leader so far

How satisfied are you with Istillian's performance as Vice President?

Very satisfied - 64%
Somewhat satisfied - 24%
Unsure - 8%
Somewhat unsatisfied - 4%
Very unsatisfied - 0%


- VPs are rarely incredibly visible but Istillian is doing well as far as I can tell

- Don't see what he does, so I guess he's ok

- Ist has been wonderful

- Istillian is a figure capable of doing a lot with the vice presidency should he choose to. It feels like he's taken on the Kuramia model of being a source of positivity and encouragement on the social side with a very behind-the-scenes management role. It's hard to not feel a little underwhelmed by that.

How satisfied are you with President Calvin Coolidge's executive and judicial appointments?

Very satisfied - 36%
Somewhat satisfied - 52%
Unsure - 8%
Somewhat unsatisfied - 4%
Very unsatisfied - 0%


- Pretty solid team. It seems like the recent resignations couldn't have been predicted ahead of time and good replacements were found quickly.

- Calvin took some risks with his Cabinet nominations, they have been generally alright

- Some of them have been amazing, but others felt uninspired

- The many resignations do not seem to be his fault

- A little dull and safe, but nothing bad.

- He's lost a lot of people. RL sucks, but some of his appnts are also too quiet....when that was the worry.

- Bar some resignations I have a lot of faith in the appointments of the president

Is Europeia on the right track?

Yes - 80% (-13.1)
No - 8% (+8)
Unsure - 12% (+5.1)


What is most important to you when considering a candidate for President? Please rank your choices from 1 (most important) to 5 (least important).



Which policy area do you view to be most important when choosing a President? Please rank your choices from 1 (most important) to 5 (least important).



Would you consider voting for someone in a presidential election with whom you did not have an existing social relationship?

Yes - 84% (-2.2)
No - 8% (-2.3)
Unsure - 8% (+8)

- This is not a factor for me.

- Good policy is more important than personal relationships

- As long as I have a solid impression of them, I don't see why not.

- I don't just vote for my friends

- Social relationships are irrelevant to the job

- I'd want to message them and make a social relationship. lol

- If I am convinced by their platform then there is no reason not to

- At this point I think I have some sort of relationship with everyone who is active (and some people who aren't). If I don't have a social relationship with someone, then they're a complete newcomer who hasn't proven their worth yet

- I don't have many social relationships anyways, so it's an easy 'yes'

Which individual(s) would you encourage to run for President?

These numbers don't tell us who is most likely to win the presidential election. They do give us a solid indication of the level of initial support these potential candidates could expect before we know anything about running mates or their policy platforms.



The sitting Vice President is in a league of his own...by a lot. He will be the overwhelming favorite regardless of who he runs against even if that challenger is his current boss. He was in our 1B category last term and has improved his already strong position during his tenure as VP. He's unlikely to come across a better opportunity for the top job but needs to be mindful that politics is an expectations game. It will be very difficult to exceed expectations from atop this perch.​



Tiering the rest of the field proves difficult. These candidates receive majority support in this poll. CSP is coming off a couple of recent electoral victories on the Senate side, most notably in last term's by-election in which he unexpectedly won outright against a strong field. We don't know if Calvin intends to run for another term but it's clear that he is a vulnerable incumbent. UPC, having recently been tapped as Minister of Culture has not-so-subtly been hinting at a run for a while but it's not obvious where those plans stand today.​



We're used to seeing some of these names higher up in Smokin' Poll but don't count them out just yet. We might dub them the youth movement if it weren't for the presence of the old hat Kazaman. A very credible run could come from any of them if they don't add their strength to the bottom of a ticket.​


This polling and subsequent analysis does not seek to disqualify any potential candidates, included or not. I used my own personal judgement and included anyone I viewed to be a serious candidate based on a number of factors.
 
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Not at all to see Isty on top! Excellent work CSP, this was an excellent and informative read.
 
Some very spicy results! The policy rankings were exactly in line with how I answered that question. Although I get the feeling that a lot of the apathy toward Justice is due to stagnation and lack of care put into it. It's an important department!
 
Aww, happy to see my name here and hopefully can get back to being more active as well. :D
 
And the poll sure is smoking! I wonder what happened to the ages this time around
 
You know what they say: where there's smoke, there's fire. That's a pretty hot poll!
 
Missed this due in part due to those darn Wire posts. Great information.
 
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