McEntire
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Shock Poll: 12% Committed to CSP's Re-Elect
Major Opening for Challenger, but None on the Horizon... Yet
Poll by Sincluda
Analysis by McEntire
In a shocking result during what has been a very sleepy election, only 12.5 percent of respondents say that President CSP should be re-elected, while 34.4 percent say someone else should be elected, and a 53.1 percent majority say that they are currently undecided. The large group of undecideds means that the incumbent President, who has already announced his re-election bid, is not doomed by a longshot. But the formidable challenger of "someone else" starts with nearly triple his support, a high floor for a new entrant with 8 days to go until the polls open.
State of the Race
Now for some good news for the incumbent, a majority approve of his performance as President, and of the direction that the region is headed in. 59.4 percent approve of CSP's performance as President, with 15.6 percent strongly approving. For comparison, President Darcness had an approval rating of 30 percent (according to a EuroWeekly poll) and President Lime had an approval rating of 5.7 percent (according to the EBC) at this point in their terms. Darcness was defeated for re-election by CSP, while Lime resigned shortly before the election and his Vice President, SkyGreen, failed to secure a full term. While CSP is not in as dire shape as their of these Presidents, neither is he invincible.
31.3 percent say that the region is "definitely" on the right track, with a 59.4 percent majority saying the region is "somewhat" on the right track. Only 9.4 percent say that the region is "not very" much on the right track, and zero respondents said that the region was "definitely not" on the right track. This has to be considered good news for any incumbent. While the region is not enthused about its current course, neither is it vocally dissatisfied.
Other Candidates
CSP has yet to draw a challenger, and the further good news for the incumbent is that when it comes to sought-after candidates, the pickings are slim. A bare majority - 51.6 percent - would encourage the incumbent to run again. The only candidates who match that level of encouragement or exceed it are:
- Kuramia - 74.2 percent
- Istillian - 64.5 percent
- Calvin Coolidge - 54.8 percent
- Writinglegend (who has already stood as CSP's VP) - 51.6 percent
- UPC - 51.6 percent
Notably, in the "additional comments" open-ended question at the end of the poll, several respondents voiced their desire for a competitive election.
CSP is very handsome.
Viable alternative to CSP desired
Someone please run against CSP to spare the next ministers.
I really want a worthy and capable challenger ticket to show up, to really push the CSP ticket (and get pushed by them as well - I just want a good election with two capable tickets)
Let's make this one exciting!
Viable alternative to CSP desired
Someone please run against CSP to spare the next ministers.
I really want a worthy and capable challenger ticket to show up, to really push the CSP ticket (and get pushed by them as well - I just want a good election with two capable tickets)
Let's make this one exciting!
Voter Priorities
When it comes to voter priorities, it is clear that this is a foreign affairs-heavy election, if the electorate has anything to say about it. This could play to the incumbent's strengths, especially if his challenger is not steeped in foreign affairs. Fully half of respondents picked "Foreign Affairs/Navy/World Assembly" as the most important policy area in this election.
In the open-ended question asking about the single most important issue, many voters cited dealing with the Brotherhood of Malice, as well as navigating the changing raider/defender environment. Again, this could play to the administration's strengths. Other issues cited multiple times include the revitalization of Communications and generally delivering on promises and goals.
Growing relationship with defenders
Having a President we can trust to manage a nuanced foreign policy at a time when we have new enemies and new friends at the same time.
Acccountability for successses / failures of current Administration. Where are we vs where CSP said we'd be last election? Should we reelect based on those promises / goals?
Foreign Affairs
Dealing with BoM
the shifting FA landscape and how to move forward assertively and thoughtfully
R/D stance and policy
Figuring out Comms and restoring it to activity. Same for AG.
Proper planning and communication throughout term, inside and out.
Delivering on and communicating any goals promised, lofty or otherwise
Following through with legal education.
Navigating the R/D space and Brotherhood of Malice issues
Europeian response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
keeping up and building on the progress gameside
Getting Communications back on track, seems to have had a long dry spell, certainly not helped by the high turnover of ministers this term.
Sticking a boot up the BoM's asses
Undecided
Our foreign affairs stance in a very quickly changing political environment.
Gameside Act (2021).
Having a President we can trust to manage a nuanced foreign policy at a time when we have new enemies and new friends at the same time.
Acccountability for successses / failures of current Administration. Where are we vs where CSP said we'd be last election? Should we reelect based on those promises / goals?
Foreign Affairs
Dealing with BoM
the shifting FA landscape and how to move forward assertively and thoughtfully
R/D stance and policy
Figuring out Comms and restoring it to activity. Same for AG.
Proper planning and communication throughout term, inside and out.
Delivering on and communicating any goals promised, lofty or otherwise
Following through with legal education.
Navigating the R/D space and Brotherhood of Malice issues
Europeian response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
keeping up and building on the progress gameside
Getting Communications back on track, seems to have had a long dry spell, certainly not helped by the high turnover of ministers this term.
Sticking a boot up the BoM's asses
Undecided
Our foreign affairs stance in a very quickly changing political environment.
Gameside Act (2021).
Potential Tough Race, Potential Nothing-Burger
In conclusion, President CSP faces a potentially tough race, if his opposition marshals a strong candidate and campaign. The large number of specific responses to the "single most important issue" question shows that voters are highly engaged, so a potential candidate would have to be steeped in issue knowledge, particularly when it comes to foreign affairs. Given the incumbent's strong previous campaign, he won't be easy to defeat. But the right candidate with the right campaign has a decided opening.
This is, perhaps, surprising, given the incumbent's relatively strong performance in office, middling-to-strong approval numbers, and lack of obvious missteps. It may signal (as indicated in the open-ended responses) a desire for a competitive election rather than a specific deficiency in the current administration. But in Europeia, a region full of ambitious players, there is seldom a political opportunity that isn't seized by someone.
Whether a veteran politician who is gunning for the big chair, or a savvy new(er)-comer who wants to make a mark, the poll indicates that this election could be interesting to a variety of candidates. With 8 days to go, we shall see if any take the plunge.
This poll was prepared for EYES - the Elect Your Executive Subcommittee of the Organization for Independent Media. It ran from April 5-7, 2022 and had a total of 32 respondents.
