[Regional Analysis] Forum Activity Levels of Current Citizens

[Prim]

Forum Activity Levels of Current Citizens
Brief Analysis for Background Usage​

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This isn't meant to be a deep analysis, but more of a background understanding for the region. I've been looking at the citizenship data every time Lethen posts a citizenship review notice. This time, however, due to a change in privacy settings, the few citizens who did have their activity set to private now have last activity date info listed next to their name. This meant that the citizenship data is the most complete that it has ever been in regards to showing activity levels of all current citizens. All of the data is anonymous, none of the names were saved and used for this data, just the last activity date measurements.




What we see here is a strong curve following a poisson distribution, basically, what percentage of our population will post on the forum within the next day, within the next 3 days, etc. We have strong numbers within the first 3-4 days, trailing off and then having another bump of citizens with activity hovering around the 1-2 week range. These are likely RMB-centric or discord-centric players who visit the forum to bump their citizenship, combined with some newcomers who have already left and are just running out the clock until they get removed. The number of citizens above the 20-day mark, roughly, tend to be almost all newcomers who have not posted since they joined and will likely be removed soon. We also have 9 citizens who have not posted in over 45 days, most of them for years, these are the retired honored citizens.

The percentage breakdown is below for each activity category:


And the cumulative percentage of citizens who post within X number of days:


Around 25% of our citizens post on the forums daily. Around 50% of our citizens post on the forum within 5 days: this is probably the outer range of what could be considered "active on the forum". Around 70% of our citizens are active on the forum within the past 2 weeks: this is probably the outer range of potential "voting" citizens, around 60-67 citizens. More likely voting potential is within the 7-day activity window, which is around 55% of the region's citizens. We will likely always have some significant portion of our citizens, around 20-25%, who are simply newcomers who never came back to the forum. A further 10% of the region's citizens are the honored retirees who are almost guaranteed not to participate in active government or elections.

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Thanks for your viewing, hope this can help inform future polling or campaigning efforts in some way.

 

[Lethen]

Oh this interesting data. I was really surprised by the numbers for the inactive/very inactive bunch.

 

[Prim]

Yeah, for those categories, since that's where it switches over to the 7 day categories instead of 1-2 days like the lower categories, they tend to look bigger, but the chart at the top shows the true day-by-day breakdown, and there definitely is a bump around the 2-week mark.

I suspect that those "Inactive" and "Very Inactive" groups are about half newcomers who never came back and half RMB/Discord Social players who check into the forum when they need to bump their citizenship a little.

 

[Lethen]

I think that's a sound suspicion; I can't think of another explanation.

 

[HEM]

This was super interesting, Prim! Honestly, I thought your results to be...a little better than I expected? 40 "very active" or "active" citizens isn't too bad, and actually raises the question of why voter turnout has been so...mediocre comparatively.

 

[Lethen]

This was super interesting, Prim! Honestly, I thought your results to be...a little better than I expected? 40 "very active" or "active" citizens isn't too bad, and actually raises the question of why voter turnout has been so...mediocre comparatively.

Do you think its possible we just aren't advertising our elections well-enough?

 

[Darcness]

This was super interesting, Prim! Honestly, I thought your results to be...a little better than I expected? 40 "very active" or "active" citizens isn't too bad, and actually raises the question of why voter turnout has been so...mediocre comparatively.

Do you think its possible we just aren't advertising our elections well-enough?

No, you don't get to ping people more often.

 

[Lethen]

This was super interesting, Prim! Honestly, I thought your results to be...a little better than I expected? 40 "very active" or "active" citizens isn't too bad, and actually raises the question of why voter turnout has been so...mediocre comparatively.

Do you think its possible we just aren't advertising our elections well-enough?

No, you don't get to ping people more often.

That's honestly not what I meant haha!